Report: Pirates Offer Octavio Dotel Contract, Closer Job
Not bad. I think he is worth a flier for the 9th inning because of the strikeout numbers for sure.
UPDATE by Charlie: I like this idea too, if true. Keep in mind that this is just a statement from an anonymous source at this point, and take it with a grain of salt until it's confirmed elsewhere.
about 2 years ago
Adam Reynolds
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it would strengthen our bullpen
Vikings 4 the superbowl
Hey, Craig Calcaterra!
He’s a cool guy – nice to see him get a scoop.
Dotel’s a little walk-happy, which might make some people here crazy, but on the whole he’s a solid pitcher, and he’d be a decent value at $3M (depending on the incentives). I freaked out a little when I saw the report because I remembered that he was a Type A, but the Sox didn’t offer him arbitration, so he’s free and clear at this point.
Not sure why someone like Kevin Gregg (85 career saves) would qualify as a proven closer in the report, while Dotel (83 career saves) would not.
Projections:
CHONE: 3.74 ERA, 1.28 WHIP. 53 IP, 62 K, 25 BB, 6 HR.
ZiPS: 4.12 ERA, 1.41 WHIP. 54 2/3 IP, 63 K, 28 BB, 8 HR. 110 ERA+.
[The ZiPS has him pitching for the White Sox in the Cell. The raw numbers would probably come down a bit in our park/league context.]
If he were to pitch...
close to the CHONE projections…probably wouldn’t be much gnashing of teeth around these parts…after watching Capps last year. Just don’t know if I’d AUTOMATICALLY make him the closer over Hanrahan, etc. Spring training would be a little interesting if there was an actual legitimate competition for the closer job.
I think the only reason they're offering him that...
…is as an inducement to sign in the first place. The difference between an average Dotel season as closer and a good Hanrahan season as closer is probably smaller than the difference between a good Hanrahan season as righty setup and whatever random body they’d drag in if they don’t sign Dotel.
would it make sense to bring in a guy like dotel to accumulate saves just to keep hanrahan’s salary down in future years?
by Captain Easychord on Dec 23, 2009 5:01 PM EST up reply actions
ZiPS in Pittsburgh for Dotel is a 3.76 ERA, 55 IP, 48 H, 6 HR, 28 BB, 61 K
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Dan Szymborski
dan@baseballprimer.com
by D.Szymborski on Dec 23, 2009 6:10 PM EST up reply actions
Dotel would be a good get. As far as “the closer’s job”, I don’t think Neal really cares whether Dotel pitches the 9th and Hanrahan pitches the 8th or vice versa…he doesn’t seem to place a lot of value on saves as a way of measuring relief pitcher performance.
Offering Dotel the closer’s job just makes our offer a little stronger compared to another team offering a similar deal to set up.
Ugh
This is almost a trade of Capps for Dotel, and we’ve basically traded 2 years of control for $300,000. Not a fan.
God Created the World Out Of Nothing, Paterno Built A National Superpower On Cow Fields...
Years of control don’t mean anything once a player is about to make as much or more than they’re worth.
by Adam Reynolds on Dec 23, 2009 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
But you can make that choice
I’d rather have Capps at 3 millon with the promise that I can have him if I want him than Dotel at 3 million who can walk freely.
God Created the World Out Of Nothing, Paterno Built A National Superpower On Cow Fields...
by Adam Bittner on Dec 23, 2009 3:51 PM EST up reply actions
That's a big if in my mind
God Created the World Out Of Nothing, Paterno Built A National Superpower On Cow Fields...
by Adam Bittner on Dec 23, 2009 4:01 PM EST up reply actions
If you offered Dotel $5-6M next year...
…(i.e. what Capps would get as an arb award if he bounced back this year), Dotel would probably be thrilled to sign for that.
I suppose...
I guess I just prefer having that option.
God Created the World Out Of Nothing, Paterno Built A National Superpower On Cow Fields...
by Adam Bittner on Dec 23, 2009 4:52 PM EST up reply actions
Where does the $3M figure come from? I’d think Dotel would cost a bit more and would require two years. I don’t see what difference it would make if they signed Dotel for two years or retained Capps with two years of control left. Dotel is much older, but relievers seem generally to last pretty well into their late 30s. Given what he’s done the last two years in comparison to Capps, he’s certainly a much better bet than Capps to pitch well.
OK, I finally found that. I thought it was a radio report or something.
I’m absolutely fine with this, although I’d be surprised if Dotel couldn’t do better. Maybe he just REALLY wants to close. If he wants the role that badly and things go well, there’d probably be a good chance of extending him. And if he did real well, there’s always the outside chance that some team would overpay (like the Dodgers with Sherrill) at the deadline.
Dejan confirms that they talked to him...
…but does not, at this point, have confirmation of a formal offer (link).
In the post before this at the PBC Blog, Nutting Hostage is furiously and ridiculously spinning as to why this gesture proves that Neal is the same as Littlefield.
by Adam Reynolds on Dec 23, 2009 4:26 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah.
He’s a moron. “Waah, waah, I don’t understand why we’d cut loose promising talent like Luis Cruz and Jeff Karstens to add scrubs like John Raynor! Waah!”
There's nothing better...
…than personnel judgment from the guy who, if he’d had his druthers, would’ve made Casey Rogowski our starting 1B in 2007.
To be fair, I think NuttingHostage has denied that he wrote this blog. That doesn’t make his current ramblings any more sensible, though.
by Adam Reynolds on Dec 23, 2009 5:02 PM EST up reply actions
That's an interesting blog!
Why is it that you know/suspect NutHo wrote that blog? That sure would be awesome if he did.
by MarkInDallas on Dec 23, 2009 9:18 PM EST up reply actions
It’d be funny, but I don’t think Jake = NutHo. Their ideas are equally loony, but they write differently and Jake’s MO is to pretend he has inside info on everything.
And if it is the same Jake I remember
had some sort of vendetta against Dejan, maybe he interviewed for the position before DK was hired.
He blasted Dejan all the time in an effort to attract attention. He was always trying to claim that he had better sources than Dejan.
Which is actually...
…part of the reason that I think the two are one and the same. For Jake, Dejan was the top dog in the Pirates media world, so it’d make sense that he’d try to get as close to that center of power as possible (to better spread his lunacy) once Dejan started blogging.
Let's be clear......
that this is an offer, not a done deal. But, my opinion is that if he signs I am actually pretty pleased with a bullpen of Hanrahan, Dotel, Meek, Jacksona and Lopez pitching the high leverage innings. Sure, it would be nice to add another quality name to the mix but I have high expectations for Meek, Hanrahan and Lopez and think Dotel adds nicely to the mix.
It also presents a variety of looks and offers different matchup opportunites. Nice week for NH in my opinion. Three names added for $1.5-2 more than we would have paid Capps. Good stuff.
when you say jackson
you mean steven jackson? I def dont want him pitching high-leverage innings. Not sure why/how, but I seem to remember him as far worse than his stats suggest.
if we get Dotel
Count me among the pleased. I think it makes all kinds os sense and $3m isn’t a lot of money.
Good day.
by Uncle Nate on Dec 23, 2009 8:30 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Sure Jackson.....
Isn’t the answer but as a seventh inning guy and a sinker ball pitcher he adds another mix to the pen. While I don’t think he is going to dominate, I think he can end up being useful.
How about...a three or four headed closer?
Maybe, just maybe the Pirates are being smart. Could it be? Possibly. Maybe they are telling both Dotel and Gregg that “if you sign with us, you will have a chance to close.” Maybe they are also telling Hanrahan and Meek they may have a chance to close. And maybe, they are not lying about it. We’ve talked about it before…about using your best reliever in the most important part of the game. Maybe that’s in the 7th inning, maybe it’s the eighth? We already know JR loves to play mix and match with the pen, so why not go back to the days of bringing in the guy best suited for whatever match up you have when you need to go to the pen. Let’s look at a pen made up of Dotel, Gregg, Hanrahan, Meek and Ja.Lopez. Suddenly, that doesn’t look too bad (plus two more guys one of which is likely to be Hart or McCutchen and then either Steven Jackson or maybe a second lefty.) Who closes? They all do. At least those main 5 guys do. The beauty of that is when it comes time for Hanrahan or Meek to cash in on arbitration, neither of them have a 20 save season. You don’t have the mystery Matt Capps factor to worry about like this year. Personally, I like it. It’s not like we are contending this season anyway. And if anything, this is a bullpen that I think we earn the confidence of the young starters on this team and that is something they really need.
Huntington on Rocco said about this idea...
That not all guys with great stuff have the mental makeup to get the last 3 outs. Not all guys who have that makeup have great stuff. He does see value to having a closer, but he said to look for the Pirates to operate in a gray area between one guy closing all the time and closer by committee. He didn’t seem to think that pure closer by committee was the way to go.
by MarkInDallas on Dec 24, 2009 4:31 AM EST up reply actions
I think it’s going to be either Gregg or Dotel.
I agree with your point about the Bucs being flexible with who closes until they start to contend, No point having Hanrahan or Meek run into the same scenario as Capps, possibly becoming very expensive through arbitration due to accumulating saves on a losing team.
Somewhere in the blogsphere, I’ve seen it voiced that the Bucs will start the season with at least one reliever cast off from another team at the final roster cut in Spring Training, similar to the way Yates went north a couple of years ago. (OK, he was traded by Atlanta, but would have been cut anyway.) Or even a player like Hansen or Yates recovers from injury and makes the team?
I’d have reservations about pencilling in anyone except Meek, Hanrahan and Dotel/Gregg for now though.
by RDV across the sea on Dec 24, 2009 7:40 AM EST up reply actions
The Gregg thing disappoints me a bit.
He’s not a bad reliever, and most of his problems last year came from a fluky HR/FB rate (which should normalize)… but I just have a bad feeling about him, for some reason.
He never did settle in well here in CHI.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Dec 24, 2009 9:50 AM EST up reply actions
Out of six full seasons, he’s only done well during the two in Fla, and even then he was more solid than good.
I don't know...
He’s had four seasons with an FIP under 4.00 and a career 4.00 FIP. And outside of last year he’s been pretty consistent since 2006. And like Vlad said part of that can be attributed to the spike in HRs. His HR/FB% was over 7% over his career average. With his healthy K rate and contact % I think he’s a good gamble to have a decent year. While I don’t necessarily want us to annoint him the closer I think he’d be a valuable addition to the team if we could get him for around the 3.4 million that Capps got.
I don't disagree with you there...
but last time I checked we need some those too. Though I guess your point is that Gregg’s price tag will likely be high for a middle reliever.
It's not about "career average" HR/FB.
It’s about 10%. Gregg’s “career average” was low up until 2009 because he’d gotten lucky. His seasonal figure was high in 2009 because he got un-lucky. But on a long enough time frame, almost everybody moves toward 10%.
Gregg’s velocity was also down last year a little bit from 07-08. I like him as a bullpen option, but not necessarily as closer or even setup for that matter.
by Adam Reynolds on Dec 24, 2009 12:00 PM EST up reply actions
I don't have time to look right now...
how much velocity did he lose? He did have a pretty bad end to the year last year so if that correlates with a significant drop in velocity there very well could be some red flags here.
His fastball dropped from 92.7 to 91.9, and the slider went from 83.5 to 82. That may not look significant, but when those are your only two main pitches then the small drop could make a big difference.
by Adam Reynolds on Dec 24, 2009 2:19 PM EST up reply actions
Good point...
and he did give up more flyballs last year than the year before. I like his ability to miss bats though so I think he has some value and could close if needed in a pinch, though I hope he is not needed to do that.
Maybe I missed it...
but outside of 2009…where are Capps’ numbers worse than Gregg’s? Ya think that .370 BABIP that Capps had might have had a little to do with it??
Frankly…if Gregg were to sign with the Pirates for anything CLOSE to what Capps got in DC…it would be an admission from NH that he screwed the pooch royally.
K rate is the big one.
Gregg’s was 9.31, while Capps’s was 7.62. Gregg’s expected HR rate was also better than Capps’s, insofar as Gregg’s HR/FB was further out of whack than Capps’s, and Gregg was hurt more by his due to a higher FB rate as well.














