Matt Capps Signs With Nationals
by Charlie on Dec 24, 2009 3:30 AM EST
33 comments
$3.5 million plus some performance bonuses.
I wasn't in favor of the Pirates' decision to non-tender Capps, but the contract he got from the Nats is roughly comparable to, or maybe a little greater than, the amount he would have gotten in arbitration. If he'd recovered from a poor 2009 season, he probably would have generated some trade interest, which I think would have made taking him to arbitration a good idea. But at least it's now clear that the Pirates didn't undervalue him by much.
It's interesting that the three teams most interested in him were the Nats, Cubs and Mets. None of those are particularly well run franchises. I wonder why more intelligent teams weren't among the top contenders.
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I think you can add the Pirates to the other three not-too-well-run franchises. They blew the handling of Capps by getting zilch for him. Capps wasn’t great, but if the Pirates don’t have Capps, who do they have? Gregg and Dotel, the apparent possibilities, are a couple of has-beens or never-weres, and if the Pirates sign either, I’ll bet the price will be about the same as Capps’. Even a low-end team like the Pirates could have afforded the few hundred thousand more Capps was looking for.
Pittsburgh always seems to be looking for less-expensive players who might return to their former talent. . .like Crosby. Well, why not apply the same strategy to Capps? He was better than just OK in 2008, and he could return to that form in 2010. NH doesn’t see it that way, obviously, so now he’ll be stuck with a couple of stiffs.
you can always join the Yankee bandwagon
or the PBC Blog for that matter. Don’t let the door hit your butt on the way out.
by BadAndy on Dec 24, 2009 10:12 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
If Capps were only asking for $1.5M that would be a great idea.
Bobby Crosby has lost a lot of value over the years, but is still seen as having a chance of out performing that salary. Meanwhile he’s being paid like a backup, not a starter. It’s just a question of risk ceiling. Paying Capps like a reliable veteran middle reliever or 3rd year closer when he might be completely useless is just not smart, IMO.
by MarkInDallas on Dec 24, 2009 1:40 PM EST up reply actions
What's this about paying Capps like a 3rd year closer...
not being smart?? That’s a bad line to put in there…since this will be his FOURTH season closing. ANY pitcher MIGHT be completely useless. So you are saying don’t spend that much money on ANY closer not carrying the last name of Rivera?? Valverde, Lidge and several others have had a season in their careers equal to that of Capps this season (and Lidge has had 2)…and still get paid handsomely.
Capps might be completely useless…but he’s in the same boat that most closers are…there is usually one season that gets trashed…and they generally rebound (barring injury) the next season.
It’s really a question of how likely you think it is that Capps will bounce back to previous form.
Most closers have 2 pitches they can use, and if they have an off year, it can be attributed to either not being able to control their pitches, losing velocity or not making adjustments to the adjustments opponents make on them.
In Capps’ case, he pretty much has just one pitch and that pitch isn’t working anymore. I just don’t think there’s a good chance of him regaining the effectiveness of a shutdown closer.
by MarkInDallas on Dec 25, 2009 4:15 PM EST up reply actions
NY Jim
I’d say it’s more likely that Matt Capps will be the same crappy pitcher next year that he was for the previous one, and I bet that the Bucs will pick up someone like Octavio Dotel to outperform him.
I don’t think Matt Capps was worth $3.5-4 million.
I’d be surprised if his arm holds up for another year.
It’s telling that for all the purported interest in him, the Nationals were the winners.
Like charlie...
I would have brought capps back for that money. However, I would argue that its highly likely that both Gregg and Dotel outperform Capps next year. I don’t think Capps is the same since that injury. That’s what may have cost him to lose the movement on his fastball that has been talked about on here by MarkinDallas. He is a one pitch pitcher and that is now a straight fastball. I don’t know if he’ll get that pitch back or not. I still would have risked signing him though but hey its not my money.
You could be right about Dotel, but
I would rather take a flyer on a younger guy like Capps than Dotel, who’s older and has a pretty lengthy injury history. I wouldn’t necessarily trash the Nats. Yes, they signed Ivan Rodrigues to a terrible contract, but they stepped to sign Strasburg when everyone was betting they wouldn’t. And the Nats also signed Marquis, who’s a decent innings-eater. However, I don’t know Washington’s money situation. Maybe the Nats have money to burn; my guess is they don’t.
If Capps is so good....
….why was the best he could do only a one-year deal? Even the Nationals…who really seem to like him, don’t want to tie up future money in him because he could very well be that same guy who exploded in nearly ever game from August on last year.
He would still be arbitration eligible and under their control, so unless they were sure they were getting a bargain, they had no need.
by MarkInDallas on Dec 24, 2009 1:43 PM EST up reply actions
DK
I exchanged emails with DK on the topic of Capps and why he felt it, in my opinion, it was so important to tout the fact that 16 teams had inquired about him and that he and his agent felt “emboldened to ask for a multi-year deal and closer money.”
I told him if 29 teams didn’t call him and at least have a cursory conversation (maybe he wanted to play in Texas for less money, maybe his wife’s family is from Minnesota) then any GM that didn’t wasn’t doing his job. Printing what his agent says is certainly newsworthy, but it is totally without filter or thought. His agent has one agenda and one agenda only.
In addition, DK was bewildered that the FO got nothing for him in a trade. I don’t want to sound like an ass a get on my high horse (but pardon me while I do), the proof is in the pudding, or in this case the contract. Capps got a one year deal at his likely arbitration number with the worst team in baseball. Sure, I wish him well, but all the bitching and moaning about how the FO wasted an asset, blah, blah, blah now has to stop. The Nationals, and possibly the Cubs, put a slightly higher value on him. He may pitch great, he may be terrible, but the FO seemingly had the same view of him as did everyone else in baseball. Let’s move along.
So . . . is NH lying about not getting any meaningfull offers? If anything, I think NH is overly blunt and forthcoming. The real issue isn’t, Why didn’t they trade him? It’s very clear the Pirates were determined to trade him. The issue is, Why didn’t they stick with him in the hope that he’d bounce back and establish more trade value?
And, yeah, the fact that he got only a year shows the market for him wasn’t all that great. He’s not even guaranteed to close in Wash., where they have nobody with closing experience.
I guess the answer....
to that, in the simplest form, is that they thought the money could be better spent elsewhere. And if they get Dotel for $3 million and Lopez for about $1 million, I have to agree.
I think...
they just didn’t see him rebounding. Why else would they have this attitude of getting rid of him no matter what? If they are willing to sign an older closer to the same amount it is obvious because if the money is similar it comes down to who do you like more. I’m guessing they don’t view Capps as a closer anymore. I never really thought he was much of a closer and I wanted the FO to trade him last year.
I’d be willing to bet they simply made up their minds that they didn’t see Capps as their closer long-term. The role carries such a religious significance that it’s extremely hard to move somebody out of it. You’d think it was like replacing the Pope or something. I wouldn’t be surprised if a factor in the Pirates’ thinking was that they simply wanted to reboot and it was easier to do with Capps gone.
I think this is a good take on it. Capps is worth less to the Pirates because of the closer-related baggage. In the end, he took a position with the Nats in which he’s competing to close; it would have been a source of controversy and (possibly) hard feelings for the FO to announce at the outset of Spring Training that Capps and Hanrahan would be on equal footing for the closer role. If you’re not sold on Capps anyway, that’s yet another good reason not to sign him (or at least to pay undermarket).
This statement doesn't make sense
the FO seemingly had the same view of him as did everyone else in baseball
The FO very clearly felt that he was no more than a $3M player. At least 3 other teams felt that he was a $3.5M player. Now, that supports the idea that NH didn’t wildly undervalue Capps, but that’s not what the word “same” means. Capps is getting 17% more than the Pirates were willing to pay him. 117%=/=“same”.
Again......
please read what I wrote….“The Nationals, and possibly the Cubs, put a slightly higher value on him.”
Also I always enjoy when you write statement of fact that you actually have no idea of knowing. Who are the “three other teams that felt the he was $3.5M player?” Yes, that Nats are one, obviously. But, how do you have any idea what the Cubs or your mysterious team X offered?
And again, how do you have any idea exactly what the Pirates offered? As far as I can tell it has been rumored and reported to be in the neighborhood of $3M, but I haven’t seen anything that would deem it to be exactly that.
Hard to say what a team thinks a guy is “worth.” I’ve seen comments from GMs acknowledging that they’ve overpaid FAs in order to get the talent they wanted. For all we know, the Nats may think Capps is a $2.5M player but went over that due to their priorities.
This whole “internal value” thing is being pretty badly misinterpreted (I’m not talking about you here). People are looking at it as if it’s an attempt to “predict” what a guy will sign for, or to assess fair market value, so if another team pays more that “proves” that the Pirates were “wrong.” As I understand it, that’s not what it is. It’s an attempt to assess what a player is worth to the Pirates. To the Cubs, who consider themselves a contender, Capps may have a greater value than he does to the Pirates. Same with the Nats, who appear to be desperate to establish themselves in their market. (They’re pretty much ignored here, even more so than the Pirates in Pgh.) It’d be tough for them to go into full-blown rebuilding mode because their farm system pretty much sucks, so they’d be looking at a long wait in a market where they haven’t found their place yet. To me, the fact that there was only a difference of a bit over 500K between these teams and the Pirates shows that the three teams’ assessment of Capps as a player is pretty much the same.
When we talk about internal value...
I wonder sometimes how a team’s past performance affects how they determine a player’s “internal value”? Forget for a moment that “a team” = Pirates.
I’ll leave specific names out as well. Is signing an effective (for sake of argument…say 120 ERA+ and WHIP around 1.200) free agent closer (Whether it’s Capps or Rivera or Valverde or Lidge or someone else is irrelevant to this discussion) going to get paid more signing with a team with a closer vacancy, is it a 70 win team, 80 wins, 90 wins or 100 wins?? Leaving the Yankees out of the discussion because they have tended to be a little freer than the majority of teams. I’d suspect the 80 and 90 win teams would be a little more likely to pay more for the good closer because it might be the difference between playoffs/no playoffs. The 70 win team probably is not going to improve 15 games adding only a good closer…and the 100 win team is likely strong enough where a couple of games difference will still leave them in the playoffs. And is there a large enough shift in the “internal value” to make a significant salary difference to players?? A couple of hundred thousand?? A million?? Several million??
For instance…I’ll go crazy for a second…we have a Papelbon…not eligible for FA…we are thinking about taking to arbitration. The 62 game winning Pirates value him at say $5M/year..and Papelbon wants…let’s say $8M. If the Pirates had won 80-90 games…is that internal value going to be higher (say $7M), because a good closer would have a greater impact?? Same talent level, different situations. My guess…the 62 win team trades or non-tenders the player…the 80-90 win team keeps him and goes to arbitration or extends him somewhere in the middle.
At this point…I’m not sure that the Pirates have more than one or two players on their 25 man roster that Pirates management would value higher than fair market value…with everyone else below market value…because they won’t be significant pieces of a winning roster. Safe to assume that Cutch is one…but after that??
On the closer value...
Obviously, if you have less games to close, your closer pitches less and can accrue less value. So, in that instance, yes. A 100 win team needs a closer for the playoffs, so that is very important to them even if they could make the playoffs without him.
Practically, the situation you describe wouldn’t exist, however, because having less save opps would be figured into his arbitration value. Jonathan Papelbon made $6.25M in his 4th year of service time in 2009 because he had more saves for the Red Sox. If he had pitched for the Pirates till now, he wouldn’t be able to get all the saves he has and even if he still had an ERA around 2.00, he wouldn’t get as much money.
So they wouldn’t have to trade him because he got too expensive.
by MarkInDallas on Dec 26, 2009 3:02 AM EST up reply actions
You missed the point...
I’m talking about situations WITHIN a single system…and how THAT system evaluates the players…not what the arbitration system is likely to decide. The player’s skill set and numbers don’t change in this scenario…only the team’s past history changes (amount of wins).
To make the example a little clearer. Which has the higher value…signing Brad Lidge with 40 saves in 40 attempts with a 2.00 ERA for a 62 win Pirates team…or signing Brad Lidge with 40 saves in 40 attempts with a 2.00 ERA for a 90 win Pirates team?? I hold that the second choice has more value…even though the individual success levels are identical.
In fact, Huntington has said that signing a free agent to win 3 more games to gain a playoff spot is indeed more valuable than if those 3 games were to go toward a 70 some win team.
But if that player is already in the system…
Heath Bell was 42 for 48 in saves for the Padres this year, and if he has another year like that in 2010, we may find out if the Padres value that very highly I guess.
by MarkInDallas on Dec 26, 2009 11:19 PM EST up reply actions
Evidently...
the Padres don’t value it too much…since he was already involved in trade talks THIS offseason.
And.....
MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL…..thanks for the great dialogue and insights, and best in the New Year.
Dotel looks a lot better to me than Gregg as the next Pirates closer.
Gregg had a bad 2009 much like Matt Capps. However, Capps actually had roughly the same velocity as 07 and slightly greater than 08. Gregg, on the other hand, saw a velocity decrease on his fastball and slider in 09 when compared to 07 and 08 (according to PitchFx). That’s a red flag to me, and if the team has him in mind as a high leverage reliever than that is a very questionable idea.
I've never seen. . .
so much made about a medicore relief pitcher. I, too, think the Bucs could have handled the situation better, but seriously. We’re talking about Matt Capps. Matt Capps. Not an elite player, Matt Capps.
In the grand scheme of things
this really means very, very little. Relief pitchers are pretty much fungible (except for the truly elite), and players who are on the field for 70 innings a year really can’t be that important.
Really
I agree with Scranton above about so much being made. I was critical about the release, and still am, but we’ve discussed everything. It really is an issue with 2 sides, and nothing but hindsight will tell us which one is correct.
Let’s move on. I m much more disappointed we didn’t top Oakland’s offer for Duscherer. Much!
Marquis and Capps!
The Nats are officially my World Series pick.
Also I wish everyone a safe and enjoyable holiday.
I made most of my life decisions at a Foghat concert... I stand by them.
by Chester J Lampwick on Dec 24, 2009 6:17 PM EST reply actions
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