Some Relief Numbers

by Roberto on Dec 24, 2009 1:51 PM EST Comment 10 comments

There's lots of interest in who will man the bullpen next year, and one of the questions I was mulling over was who looks best on paper. I also thought it would be useful to compare these gentlemen with the pitchers now on the staff. The data here report strikeouts per nine innings, bases on balls per nine innings, and Bill James's predictions for FIP in 2010. Of course FIP depends solely on home runs, strikeouts, and bases on balls. A couple of points do jump out at me, but I wonder what others see.

First, Octavio Dotel and Kevin Gregg do look like attractive candidates, but Kiko Calero looks pretty impressive. Of course he has had a series of arm miseries over the years, but he might be a good player to gamble on. Second, Jose Valverde might have a problem. While he does look like the best available player, he may be pricing himself out of the market. Third, the projected FIP for Evan Meek looks pretty good, though he does have this nasty habit of walking tons of people. Fourth, what about Chad Bradford? My understanding is that he is thinking about retirement, but if he would be willing to take a flyer, the PBC should be as well.

				K/9	BB/9	FIP
Danys Baez	32	Free Agent	Baltimore	6.04	3.60	4.70
Brian Bass	27	Non-Tendered	Baltimore	5.46	3.43	4.75
Joe Beimel	32	Free Agent	Colorado	5.29	3.71	3.98
Chad Bradford	35	Free Agent	Tampa Bay	4.95	2.48	3.62
Kiko Calero	34	Free Agent	Florida	9.42	4.22	3.47
Matt Capps	26	Signed	Washington	7.11	1.74	3.80
Clay Condrey	34	Non-Tendered	Philadelphia	4.85	2.77	4.22
Brendan Donnelly	38	Free Agent	Florida	8.25	3.25	3.60
Octavio Dotel	36	Free Agent	Chicago Sox	11.25	3.94	3.88
Kevin Gregg	31	Free Agent	Chicago Cubs	8.31	3.74	4.04
Joel Hanrahan	28	Signed	Pittsburgh	8.44	5.06	4.63
Steven Jackson	27	Signed	Pittsburgh	7.14	3.88	4.20
Chris Jakubauskas	31	Signed	Pittsburgh	6.09	2.91	4.27
Jeff Karstens	27	Signed	Pittsburgh	5.90	2.90	4.50
Kevin Hart	27	Signed	Pittsburgh	7.80	3.98	4.46
Mike MacDougal	32	Non-Tendered	Washington	7.93	5.24	3.99
Daniel McCutchen	27	Signed	Pittsburgh	6.66	2.22	4.56
Evan Meek	26	Signed	Pittsburgh	7.88	5.06	3.85
Jose Valverde	31	Free Agent	(A)Houston	10.48	3.63	3.43
Jose Veras	29	Non-Tendered	Cleveland	9.00	4.30	4.21
Jamey Wright	35	Free Agent	Kansas City	5.42	4.34	4.81

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.

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Comments

For Some Reason

and I know this doesn’t make sense as a baseball fan, Valverde’s reactions on the mound make me root for him to do poorly every time I see him.

I don’t want him because I can’t root for him to do well.

by God Loves on Dec 24, 2009 3:07 PM EST reply actions

agree

plus, he will cost…

by BurgherKing on Dec 24, 2009 4:23 PM EST up reply actions

I’d be very pleased with Dotel or Calero, who seem to be under the radar even though they are better than most if not all of the relievers already signed this off-season. There are some interesting minor league FAs still left as well.

by Adam Reynolds on Dec 24, 2009 3:28 PM EST reply actions

ditto

honestly, on Dotel, I m going by reactions around BD and elsewhere- my initial reaction from looking at stats was “meh”, but that had to do with the variant walk numbers… the K rate has been consistently good, so probably worth a shot…

by BurgherKing on Dec 24, 2009 4:24 PM EST up reply actions

Anyone in favor of throwing 6 mill at Valverde?

Seems very steep, considering NH wouldn’t concede even 3.5 or so for Capps, but Valverde is, well, better than Capps. This would totally go against the philosophy Huntington said he had about relievers, BUT it would totally buy into his philosophy of getting the best value for your money.

In a different year, someone probably would pony up the 8 to 10 million Valverde is looking for, but there aren’t many teams left looking for a closer, and the ones that are, aren’t willing to spend 10 million on a closer. Valverde would be a significant upgrade over Capps if the money was right.

No guarantee Valverde would take 6 million, but if you give him the choice of 6 million to close for the Pirates and in all likelihood be traded to a contender at the deadline, that’s not such a bad offer. Other big spenders with closers may only offer him 3 or 4 as a set up man.

I don’t think it would happen, but I wouldn’t be opposed to thinking about it…

by jlk9697 on Dec 24, 2009 3:37 PM EST reply actions

I’m not, because he was offered arbitration as a Type A free agent, meaning we would have to give up a second round pick (which is more valuable to us at this point than getting a big time closer). Those are the rules…

by Adam Reynolds on Dec 24, 2009 5:07 PM EST up reply actions

Correct, but

Suppose it took $4 million? For half of the teams in the league it would take a 1st round pick, so the PBC starts with an advantage. I’m not arguing for this strongly, but this could be a value pick if things break right.

Viva Clemente!

by Roberto on Dec 24, 2009 7:07 PM EST up reply actions

Our 2nd...

…is nearly a 1st, since we’re second overall in the draft order.

At that slot, you have basically a 1-in-3 shot at a significant contributor. I wouldn’t want to risk that for a RP, even a good one like Valverde.

by Vlad on Dec 28, 2009 12:29 AM EST up reply actions

I watched Dotel's last 10 outings or so.

The thing that jumped out at me was the horrible defense played behind him. The White Sox were 35 runs below average defensively on the year. This showed up very visibly in his outings. He’s got a real nasty curve ball and when that is on, he’s very effective.

I’d certainly be very happy to get Dotel.

by MarkInDallas on Dec 24, 2009 6:25 PM EST reply actions