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Around SBN: Nevin Shapiro Vows To Bring Down Miami

Here's a little interview I just did with the Nats blog Federal Baseball about Matt Capps, Nyjer Morgan and Joel Hanrahan. The comment thread features Nats fans making the odd claim that Nats are in better shape than the Pirates right now.

about 2 years ago Charlie_tiny Charlie Wilmoth 26 comments 0 recs  | 

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Bucs and Nats fans could bicker

about that trade for a while, there are reasonable arguments for both sides (though I believe we will see soon the Bucs got the better players). But how one could think the Nats’ organization is clearly in better shape than the Pirates right now is beyond me. And what is the “Allegheny Tunnel?”

by DITO on Dec 29, 2009 7:47 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

I believe it’s on the turnpike.

by PensFan024 on Dec 30, 2009 4:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Good interview Charlie!

It will be interesting to see if Nyjer is able to keep his BABIP up near .400 or if he will start to take more walks to keep up his OBP. I like him so I do hope he does well.

by MarkInDallas on Dec 29, 2009 8:50 PM EST reply actions  

We will see..

…..how Nyjer’s defense pan out after a more meaningful sample. I don’t know if I buy that he is truly elite in CF. I believe in the bat to a certain extent, as I think he can sustain a high babip (.350 or so) and decent BB% (maybe 6.5% – 8%). His OPS is OBP heavy, so it is deceivingly valuable.

by element1286 on Dec 29, 2009 9:17 PM EST reply actions  

Amazing

How different people look at the same thing so differently. Did you look at the Nat’s bloggers comments below the interview?

by God Loves on Dec 29, 2009 9:17 PM EST reply actions  

I think we'll win in the long run

"Baseball is better than football. Think about it, eighty degrees, a cold beer and a short-sleeve shirt is better than 30 degrees, a hip flask and six layers of clothes under a lap blanket. Take your pick: suntan or frostbite. " - Thomas Boswell

by Ketcham Bruce on Dec 29, 2009 9:18 PM EST reply actions  

I believe in Nyjer’s defense, what I don’t believe in is Burnett posting another year with a .201 BABIP. Seems completely unsustainable to me and his other peripherals aren’t very impressive at all.

by maguro on Dec 29, 2009 9:21 PM EST reply actions  

Agreed on Burnett

His BABIP against was .305 in 2008, and his low rate in 2009 drove his only semi-impressive stat—1.11 WHIP. He could be a decent LOOGY as he stikes out left handed hitters better than right, but he wouldn’t be a particularly good one.

by DITO on Dec 29, 2009 11:46 PM EST up reply actions  

Burnett

is a nobody, IMO. His only skill is being left-handed.

by element1286 on Dec 29, 2009 9:34 PM EST reply actions  

The Nats have a few better young pitchers...

but we have more depth in the farm and a better group of young hitters. I think we match up really well to combine with them like you did a few years ago with us and the Royals. Imagine a future team like this:

C- Tony Sanchez
1B- Pedro Alvarez
2B- Chase D’arnaud
SS- Danny Espinosa
3B- Ryan Zimmerman
LF- Jose Tabata
CF- Andrew McCutchen
RF- Derek Norris

1. Steve Strasburg
2. Jordan Zimmerman
3. Ross Detwiler
4. Brad Lincoln
5. Tim Alderson

by joegonzo on Dec 29, 2009 9:36 PM EST reply actions  

Don't forget

We’d still get Capps closing!

The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.

by glass0941 on Dec 29, 2009 10:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Wow...

I would have to say I disagree that they’re in a better position going forward. I know speed guys almost always have a higher BABIP because they can beat out groundballs alot of other players can’t, but I feel like .400 is really too high for Nyjer. That means, IMO, he would have to be hitting it with authority as well, and I just don’t see him maintaining the kind of strength you need for that. As for Burnett having a .201 BABIP, that is ridiculous. His BB/9 and K/9 were pretty much in line with his career numbers, but his BABIP dropped almost 100 points, his HR rate was up and his LD% was up as well. I just can’t see him keeping up these numbers. The Bill James predictions for next year seem pretty likely if you ask me.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1886&position=P

The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.

by glass0941 on Dec 29, 2009 10:16 PM EST reply actions  

Bill James is much better at this than I am,

but I really don’t see Burnett’s strikeout rate falling below 5. I think that’s kind of odd.

by DITO on Dec 29, 2009 11:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Probably not,

but I think the rest of his stats will normalize. They might rise if anything because he’ll be used more as a LOOGY than anything else, and as you mentioned above, he’s been pretty effective against right handers. But I think on the whole, we’ll see a rise in ERA, FIP, BABIP, and a resulting drop in value

The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.

by glass0941 on Dec 30, 2009 12:02 AM EST up reply actions  

They say that defense wins ballgames, well defense will win the Morgan-Milledge trade. If Lastings’ improvements in the field towards the end of the season carry over to next year, then I think he’ll be the most valuable player in the swap.

The Nats might be in better shape with pitching, given Strasburg and Jordan Zimmerman, who projects as a good #2 starter if he comes back fine from TJ surgery in 2011. R. Zimmerman is a future MVP candidate in a world without Pujols. Plus they are in line for Harper (although I think we can get an impact piece as well if we take a pitcher) Other than those four, their young talent is very questionable and shallow. The Pirates young talent is a lot deeper.

by Adam Reynolds on Dec 30, 2009 12:12 AM EST reply actions  

I think...

we end up getting Harper for some reason. There is nothing really behind it, i just have a feeling we will get him.

by joegonzo on Dec 30, 2009 12:58 AM EST up reply actions  

If we get Harper...

I’m gonna have trouble rooting for this kid. He has already said his only goal in life is to play “in the pinstripes” of the Yankees. And then who can forget this lovely quote, “If people don’t like it, then they can leave. Don’t want to watch me? Then don’t buy the ticket.” Good one, buddy.

I know he’s only 17, and he probably has a right to be pretty cocky, but he seems like the kid in HS who you would love to kick in the ’nads.

by Maxwell.C on Dec 30, 2009 2:00 AM EST up reply actions  

totally agree, Harper sounds like an overhyped Yankee wanbee that would be nothing but trrouble. I say, let the Nats have him, it doesn’t matter when in the next one or four or five years he hits the market. We won’t get him anyhow, even if we wanted, because the Nats will get the first draft pick for the next 3 to 6 years.

"I choose to gamble with my life

Twice the risk, four times the prize

Nothing knocks me over"

by lighthouse913 on Dec 30, 2009 2:28 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Right now, LSU righty Anthony Ranaudo looks as good for the Pirates. I’ve been impressed from watching him in person twice in the NCAA. He offers big league ready stuff now (94-96) with #1 upside. Seems like more of a sure thing if we want a 2012-2013 run.

by Adam Reynolds on Dec 30, 2009 6:04 AM EST up reply actions  

He'll be coming

to Columbia this spring as part of SEC play, and I am STOKED about watching him pitch. The dude looks like a stud, and I know this was the past regime, but drafting college pitchers makes me nervous…

The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.

by glass0941 on Dec 30, 2009 11:06 AM EST up reply actions  

It's not just the Nats

Lot’s of teams seem to think their success hinges on picking the pockets of a team with 17 straight losing seasons. If the Pirates have so many valuable MLB components, why do they perenially lose? With the exception of Bay and maybe Sanchez when healthy, the unloaded players are complementary players at best on decent teams. They merely shift their below replacment level value when exposed on other equally bad teams like the Nats.

And before the Nats get too excited about a few high ceiling prospects, we know from experience that things don’t always work out at planned. Not all of our 1st round busts were terrible picks . . . most, but not all. All pitchers face some probability of career impacting injuries.

by chicos_pants on Dec 30, 2009 12:03 PM EST reply actions  

Pirates/Nats

Arguing who is better is like arguing about who is the tallest midget. All I will say is that any fan base that is treating Nyjer like the next Willie Mays is delusional.

by Batavia on Dec 30, 2009 8:19 PM EST reply actions  

Nats Fan Here

First of all, have to say you guys have an amazing ballpark. I think Nats Park is very cool and underrated, but I consider PNC the best in MLB. (And I grew up going to Wrigley.)

No question Milledge & Hanarhan have the higher upsides. But it was a classic case of needing a change of scenery before those guys — mainly Milledge — would ever perform. Milledge had more than worn out his welcome with his ridiculous antics & attitude, such that he was never going to succeed in DC if the Nats had hung onto him. So a lot of Nats fans view it as though we didn’t really give up anything, even if he works out and Pittsburgh gains a good player.

On Morgan, I think most don’t expect he’ll keep up the torrid pace he set when he got to DC. But you have to understand here was a guy who hustled his tail off (unlike Milledge) and played great defense (unlike Dukes, Dunn & Willingham), and was a terrific character in the locker room and with the media on a team that has been so bland for so long as to not have an identity yet. So I think the attachment to Nyjer is as much emotional as it is rational, although we do have realistic hopes that he will be a long term solid if not spectacular centerfielder for a number of years as we rebuild.

by zib23 on Dec 31, 2009 10:58 PM EST reply actions  

I thik Nyjer is better for the Nats than Nyjer

The Pirates already had what will be a great CF in McCutchen. Nyjer’s defense is then worth much more for the Nats than the PIrates. Even when Nyjer regresses to his normal BABIP, he’s still going to be a decent leadoff hitter with a .350-.360 OBP and he’s going to give you excellent CF defense, which Milledge wasn’t going to do because he’s really not a CF.

by MarkInDallas on Jan 1, 2010 1:59 AM EST up reply actions  

Nyjer is a tough player to assess, but it is easy to say that he sucks and his defensive numbers were a fluke. On the other hand, both the Bucs and Nationals had a much higher winning percentage when he was in their lineups than when he was not.

That’s not a sabermetric figure and it is affected by luck, but it does appear to support the conclusion of the advanced statistics that he was a great player in 2009.

by Adam Reynolds on Jan 1, 2010 2:31 AM EST up reply actions  

I don’t disagree with his UZR at all actually. Everywhere he has played, his UZR immediately reflects that he is a far above average defender. Is he 20 runs above average or 40 runs? Anywhere in there it’s plain to see it’s great. He probably is a 3 win player on defense alone. That means he probably is a 4 win player at least.

by MarkInDallas on Jan 1, 2010 5:06 AM EST up reply actions  

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