Please Pirates, just take a chance
by C Shint on Dec 8, 2009 2:46 PM EST
27 comments
The Marlins have won two championships by playing their prospects early and letting them develop in the majors. The Pirates should use the same approach and let guys like Tabata, Alverez, Lincoln start the year in Pittsburgh. Maybe a guy like Goryks Hernandez and Dan McCutchen too. Jeff Clement is hanging around down at Triple-A and could be used as well at the majors. Pirates need to go for glory and play their star prospects instead of waiting around for the "right time". I know starting them now would take away from the Pirates time that they have them under contract control but it's time to win now.
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Rekindling of Doumit to Jays Rumor
http://community.post-gazette.com/blogs/pbc/archive/2009/12/08/pirates-blue-jays-talking-doumit.aspx
What does Alex Anthopolis have that we could get for Doumit?
And why are we so eager to trade Doumit?
I don't think we're "eager"...
…just open to the idea, as we should be (with Doumit and nearly everybody else on the roster).
Most of Toronto’s useful depth at this point is in young SP, so we’d probably be getting one or more of those back in a trade.
once doumit is gone, though
we have very little on the catching front. JJ is decent, but if he gets injured, we have an unknown in Kratz (unknown in ML terms, clearly the Bucs think he s an adequate short term replacement)… we could be in a big hole catching-wise. I’d hate to get a makeshift catcher in return for Doumit, rather maximize his value in terms of prospects…
that said, I think Doumit is not likely to get moved yet, or even at all, unless we get the right package. My bet is on Matt Capps as the one the Bucs are most desperate to unload!
They aren't planning on contending in 2010.
And if they didn’t see Tony Sanchez as the future at the position, they wouldn’t have drafted him last year.
There’s also the possibility of signing or trading for someone else after a Doumit deal, if we get a good offer. I could live with a Buck or an Olivo or a Torrealba on a short-term short-money deal, or we could roll the dice with Chris Snyder from Arizona for pennies on the dollar.
Sure
Still, Sanchez hasn’t played in AA yet, and how long he will take is still uncertain. A lot of things could cause his arrival to be delayed (we may not see him in the big leagues till 2012), and our only form of backup is Erik Kratz at AAA.
I am, in any case, not averse to a good deal for Doumit, but we should get proper value for him. Because of the AA/AAA situation, his (likely) low value, I wouldn’t be surprised if we waited on him. Its a question on whether we want to roll the dice on Doumit staying healthy through June next year or not!
update from DK
saying Jeremy Accardo could be involved in the talks. That’s kinda strange, since while he might well be involved, his significance to the deal should (hopefully) be slight…
Yes, if by “slight” you mean “Accardo comes absolutely free”.
I wouldn’t mind seeing the Bucs pick up one of Toronto’s ML-ready LHP prospects (Romero, Cecil, Rzepczynski). Is second baseman Brad Emaus worth looking at as well? (I’m not prospect-savvy by any means, I just comb through BA and BP’s top prospect lists.)
Of course, I’d be satisfied if we asked for Travis Snider, but I don’t think Toronto would do that.
Hey, an out is an out - unless you're Mario, in which case it's probably two outs. -UtesFan89
Why can't Mendy bust a long TD run? We could use it.
Eh, Emaus is OK, I guess.
Looks like a future UT guy to me. Certainly not someone I’d target.
I’d be happy with a deal fronted by Cecil (and OK with one fronted by Rzepczynski, though his name will be the death of me). I could also see them using a more established (rehabbing) SP like Litsch or Marcum as the primary piece, if the medical reports are good. McGowan’s arm seems pretty jacked up, unfortunately.
The Marlins were able to do that...
…because they had a large number of prospects who became ML-ready at approximately the same time. This is exactly the situation we’ve been working toward for the last 2+ years.
If they’d just promoted guys from the minors at random based on pedigree rather than readiness, they never would’ve won anything.
Eternal Losers
The article on the low profits earned by the Pirates may be the most discouraging thing about these years of futility. I always held onto the hope that they were robbing the fans blind by pocketing huge sums of money that they, having seen the light in an Ebenezer Scrooge-like epiphany, could spend to make the team better.
Now I see that the best we can hope for is the occasional flirtation with Rocco Baldelli, Bobby Crosby, and every other guy that had one decent year a long time ago and a string of debilitating injuries since then. I’m not surprised they are shopping Doumit, Maholm and Duke. Those guys would cost them a combined $25M in another year or two…can’t have that kind of money hanging around their necks, right?
by wietersforpresident on Dec 9, 2009 10:45 AM EST reply actions
They aren't exactly "shopping" those guys.
They’re making nearly all of their assets available for the right price. Doumit, Maholm, and Duke just happen to be drawing the most interest because they’re among the most valuable commodities – but I don’t see the team actively trying to get rid of any of them.
Duke will probably go soon
Simply because the #4 starter should ideally be someone learning how to pitch like a #1 or #2 starter. Once you have settled into 4th best on the Pirates, your days are going to be numbered. No need to extend someone who isn’t above average.
I thought Duke was average.
His career ERA+ is 99. If 100 is average, then Duke is pretty much average, if ever so slightly below average.
by IAPiratesFan on Dec 10, 2009 6:53 AM EST up reply actions
Be careful
ERA+ is for all pitchers. Average SP is under 100 ERA+, because relievers drag the average up.
Actually
The average reliever has a lower ERA than an average starting pitcher. The reason is it is harder to pitch as a starter than as a reliever. This is why on StatCorner, you see league tRA for starters in the NL as 4.65 and for relievers as 4.35.
by MarkInDallas on Dec 10, 2009 2:24 PM EST up reply actions
That's exactly what I said.
Relievers have better ERA+ numbers than starters, so relievers drag the league baseline up, and an “average starter” has an ERA+ under 100.
Also…ERA+ may be park adjusted and compare to the average major leaguer, but it’s still based on ERA (which is not the best indicator of how well a pitcher is doing).
by Adam Reynolds on Dec 10, 2009 3:07 PM EST up reply actions
I thought you were saying
Duke was not even that good because relief pitchers would have higher ERA, not lower. Anyway, I think Duke is a average to slightly above average starter, which I guess is what you were saying.
by MarkInDallas on Dec 10, 2009 5:54 PM EST up reply actions
The idea that the Pirates should throw their prospects to the wolves before they are ready
is guaranteed to prolong the misery of Pirates fans into decade 3 of the 21st century.
MarkinDallas
I don’t think I’m alone in saying I hope you post regularly on BD next season. You make a lot of good points and are interesting to read.
I don't know about that.
Bob Smizik says MarkinDallas is a kool-aid drinker. For some reason, drinking kool-aid is bad?
by IAPiratesFan on Dec 10, 2009 8:07 PM EST up reply actions
Thanks. I plan on it.
Kool-Aid apparently allows you to use your logical mind to answer questions. Yum.
by MarkInDallas on Dec 10, 2009 10:01 PM EST up reply actions
So...
I’m surprised no one has mentioned that the 1997 Marlins didn’t really win with all young players. 5 of their regulars were 28 or older, including Bobby Bonilla, Jeff Conine, Moises Alou, and Gary Sheffield. And their pitching staff included Al Lieter (31), Kevin Brown (32), Pat Rapp (29). Alex Fernandez (27) and Robb Nen out of the bullpen (27) weren’t exactly rookies.
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
I guess we're ADD and forgot the question
You are correct. The Marlins had the 7th highest payroll in 1997. Then dismantled the team after that because attendance didn’t keep pace. However, the prospects from that WS helped fuel the Marlins system and rise for the 2nd title. Payroll for 1997: Marlins: $48M. Pirates: $9M. Yankees: $59M.
Marlins payroll in 2009 equivalent: $135M.
by MarkInDallas on Dec 11, 2009 7:07 PM EST up reply actions
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