Rule 5 Draft Eve
by BurgherKing on Dec 9, 2009 2:45 PM EST
45 comments
With the Rule 5 draft tomorrow, I thought it made sense to put up a thread where everyone could discuss their favorite picks and their reasons.
A couple of sources discussing the available options:
Vlad's fanpost on some of the players likely to interest the Bucs.
Tim Williams' sequence of posts on Buccofans.com breaking down possible picks by positions (the other positions are linked on the page).Tim also had a post on Rule 5 draft trends.
The Pirates pick 2nd in the Rule 5 draft, with the situation in front of them being slightly murky. The Nats had the first pick, which they "traded" to the Yankees for Brian Bruney. It seems the Yankees are shopping the pick, and if they dont find a suitor, could pick Arquimedes Caminero.
This was followed by Neal Huntington expressing some level of disinterest in the Pirates Rule 5 pick, perhaps to drive interest in the top pick down. Like Pat, I would be shocked if the Bucs don't pick someone. I semi-expect them to pick 2, if someone they like is available. By my recollection, we have 2 open spots on the roster, and is (i m guessing) one of the reasons the Bobby Crosby signing has been delayed. If we made 2 picks, and signed Crosby, we'd likely non-roster Bixler or Claggett.
I'd be looking at Aneury Rodriguez, Yohan Pino and Steve Johnson as potential picks (order indicates my order of preference). There are some interesting position players too, but my guess is the Bucs go with pitchers. What do others think?
UPDATE by Charlie: I'll add a couple more possibilities--George Kontos, who I wrote about next week, and also Matt McBride of the Indians. McBride is a defensively-challenged catcher who posted huge numbers in the Arizona Fall League. He might be a nice guy to have around if the Pirates trade Ryan Doumit, and Neal Huntington was with the Indians when McBride was drafted as a supplemental pick in 2006.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
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It depends
On whether the PBC wants to go for a useful player or a projectable player. From what I’ve seen, Pino is the most likely to be useful, as someone with excellent command of two good breaking pitches. But there’s little or no projection there. Rodriguez and Johnson are less apt to be useful, but more projectable.
Viva Clemente!
I hate to say it ...
But I’d probably take Tracy. I don’t see why the Rangers didn’t protect him other than their minor league depth. He looks like a decent CI or OF, an .800 OPS guy.
He’s never going to be a star. But he could be a useful player to add to the mix.
Then I’d see if Kontos or someone else falls to the second round. I agree there is no one that exciting.
But with all the useless players NH claims on waivers, why not?
from what I’ve heard, Tracy is no-glove, which considerably offsets his value in spite of the OPS…
besides, we can carry only so many position players, and there’s a significant number of them whose roles the Bucs probably want to figure out moving forward. I doubt there’d be space on the bench. I can see Tracy being picked up by someone, more likely in the AL, and I understand why the Bucs would consider it- all said and done, my prediction is they dont pick Tracy.
The no-glove thing is correct...
…and his numbers last year were inflated considerably by park/league.
Tracy is basically a poor man’s Clement. Why not play the one we already have?
Vlad
I’d bring Tracy in just to have another bat to compete. Clement is an enormous question, defensively, health. And there are a lot of bad players on the bench.
Also, Tracy’s 2009 stats are not that much different from other years. I agree they are inflated. But he still looks like a better hitter than your average rule 5 guy.
He’s young, has hit for a decent average and some power across levels.
At the same time, I suspect he probably will end up in the AL because of the glove.
I threw him out there because I don’t see much else.
If we just want a bench bat to put into the mix...
…I think we’d be better off with Danny Dorn, who’s more ML-ready and less of a butcher in the field.
MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo says the Yankees may pick John Raynor, also out of the Marlins system. I guess in the AL with the DH spot you can probably try to carry a guy just as a pinch runner/defensive replacement and not worry as much about the wasted bench spot if he can’t hit.
Honestly, I think Raynor can hit a little, too.
He had a good offensive track record up until last year, which might have been affected by a broken hand in the 2008 AFL.
ElDuce
It’s probably easier to hide someone in the AL. But it doesn’t help that the Pirates will likely have a 12-man pitching staff. I remember when I grew up watching Chuck’s Bucs and the team was debating a nine- or 10-person staff.
Vlad
I’d argue that is one of the negative effects of Moneyball. The use of statistics by GMs and managers has been overwhelmingly positive.
On the other hand, everybody is thinking of pitching match-ups and having seven RPs. It doesn’t make a lot of sense to me that you don’t also consider your hitting match-ups, e.g., Osik off the bench.
Not sure I can agree on that as a cause.
Though there is an Oakland connection. Personally, I’d lay the blame with Tony LaRussa, who was responsible more than anyone else for strictly codified roles for particular members of the pen, and who was notably quicker on the trigger with substitutions than a lot of his peers. Since he was successful with that approach, others started to emulate him, and there we are…
by Vlad on Dec 9, 2009 5:13 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Man...
I would love it if we had a chance to get Arquimedes. We just don’t have a lot of arms like that in the system. After that I go with Rodriquez and Pino in that order. The more I look at Pino stats the more he grows on me. I really can’t see us using the pick on a position player. Gotta be a pitcher.
I imagine
it would be very hard to make him stick on the roster all year… he’s never pitched above high-A! I completely don’t understand why the Yankees would take him though- if he survived the AL East, it would be a miracle!
I don't know...
we managed to hide Veal on the roster all year. I think we could find a way to use Arquimedes with his stuff.
Everth Cabrera
never played above low-a and was the Padres starting SS by the end of last year. Just Sayin’
true
but it might well be the exception that proves the rule.
It’s hard to expect low-A, or even high-A players to be able to make the jump to the majors in that manner, with any kind of consistent success.
That's true and the Padres really didn't have any other options
still he led off a lot and played pretty well, so the jump can happen.
I agree
anytime you can get someone with that skill set you have to jump on them. Ohlie would definitely have some competition for smartest guy on the team. I had heard some erroneous reports that he might have died a couple thousand years ago, but I’ve realized you can’t believe everything you read on the intraweb. I really can’t believe he was left unprotected
In the end,
I would be very surprised if the Pirates don’t have at least a few guys they’re very interested in and are just playing a game with the recent smokscreens from the front office.
Evan Meek might be a keeper, and Donald Veal supposedly showed some promise in the fall. Let’s hope the next pick brings us someone with considerable potential that can be groomed by the team.
With Joe Kerrigan returning, I’m betting they’ll be looking for another arm to develop.
Kiley McDaniel reports
Yankees are considering taking their own player Zach Kroenke with the first pick.
Indians are looking at Bobby Cassevah (Angels) with the 5th pick
Lots of interest in Hector Ambriz (Diamondbacks)
I like Brayan Villareal
He seems to have the most pure upside of any of the potential picks that I’ve read about. Mid 90’s fastball with decent secondary stuff. He also has good enough control where we can probably use him in situations where we are behind and at least expect him to get through the inning without walking 5 guys in a row.
I'm very big on Villareal.
He, Aneury, and Pino are probably my top 3, in some order. It kind of depends on the team’s strategic aim in making the pick.
The biggest concern with Villareal is health.
by Vlad on Dec 9, 2009 8:11 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Yet if you read the article it’s linked too, it makes no such claim. Whoever wrote the blurb didn’t read very closely.
i will admit
i didnt read the story when i posted the comment!
by BurgherKing on Dec 10, 2009 12:35 AM EST up reply actions
From Mayo’s article:
The Pirates were going to take someone at No. 2 and it seemed like they were looking at a position player. There was some buzz about it being a catcher, but I don’t think that’s going to happen.
http://minors.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/12/rule_5_extravaganza.html
If that is now the story that is linked, they changed it. That was not the story that the link went to before.
A pitcher makes more sense since we’ve had some mild success there the last 2 years with power arms. Although an infielder could spell the end of Vazquez which is a plus, the available pitchers are more intriguing from here.
by Adam Reynolds on Dec 10, 2009 1:05 AM EST up reply actions
In other news....
Jesse Chavez traded twice already in a couple months(Braves). Soriano now with the Rays.
If I were wearing a tinfoil hat
That would make perfect sense to me.
by MarkInDallas on Dec 10, 2009 2:45 PM EST up reply actions
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