Baseball Prospectus Projects Pirates Will Win 65 Games

by Charlie Wilmoth on Feb 10, 2009 3:08 PM EST

Two fewer than usual. For subscribers, you can also look at individual projections. BP thinks the offense will be (sort of) competent, but not so much for the pitching/defense. It also thinks it's a bit early to give up on Craig Hansen and that Andy LaRoche will be downright serviceable. Oh, and it has Jeff Salazar hitting .260/.355/.469, which would make him the Pirates' second-best outfielder.

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1/3, 1/3, 1/3

So Baseball Prospectus is saying that it doesn’t think that Joe Kerrigan is going to make a big difference in the 2009 Pirates.

It has often been said that over a 162 game season, every team will win 1/3 of its games and lose 1/3 of its games. It’s what happens in that other 1/3 that really makes the difference.

So it looks like BP is saying that the Pirates will win roughly 20% of those 54 games that are "up in the air’ before the season even starts.

Even I think that the 2009 Pirates’ edition should do better than that.

So I’m going to keep watchin.

by thegunner on Feb 10, 2009 3:20 PM EST reply actions

PECOTA doesn't have variables for coaching

This is a pure machine projection, albeit one with some unusual data sources (like player height/weight).

by Vlad on Feb 10, 2009 5:03 PM EST up reply actions

Vlad ... I Was Only Kidding ...

about Kerrigan!

by thegunner on Feb 10, 2009 5:09 PM EST up reply actions

I thought you might be...

…but not everybody knows how all systems are calculated, so I figured I’d post it anyway.

A few years back, I remember that somebody was trying to quantify the Mazzone effect on young Atlanta pitchers, but I don’t think it got very far, because the subjective personality factors introduced too much noise. Not very workable, but an interesting idea, at least.

by Vlad on Feb 10, 2009 5:20 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, I'll take the over too.

Less than 75 yet more than 65.

by Danno11 on Feb 10, 2009 3:39 PM EST reply actions

On the bright side...

We’ll have the number one pick in the draft again if BP is on! I liked the Salazar pick up and I really hope he makes the team. I think it was a nice move by NH that went under the radar. I fear the Hinske signing will make Salazar expendable. I hope not.

by Slick1 on Feb 10, 2009 3:47 PM EST reply actions

that's a good point -- BP thinks the Pirates will be the worst team in baseball in '09

other lowlights:

last in NL pitching (based on runs allowed), and 3rd from the bottom in the ML (behind Texas and Baltimore);

the fourth-worst offense in the ML, based on projected runs scored.

yay us!

by gonfalon on Feb 10, 2009 4:14 PM EST up reply actions

I’m a little surprised, but I tend to trust the results of PECOTA from past experience. I do think 65 is a little low, but I’d be pleasantly surprised by cracking 70.

by thegreatchris on Feb 10, 2009 7:43 PM EST reply actions

I actually find 65 to be a bit optimistic.

I made most of my life decisions at a Foghat concert... I stand by them.

by Chester J Lampwick on Feb 10, 2009 8:27 PM EST reply actions

65?

I thought it said 64.

by Orrington on Feb 11, 2009 8:19 AM EST reply actions

That’s different from what it said when I posted this.

by Charlie Wilmoth on Feb 11, 2009 7:44 PM EST up reply actions

64/65

It will get revised throughout the preseason. Either way, the projection is realistic.

by bolton on Feb 12, 2009 5:45 PM EST up reply actions

Im going with 69

I have a little more faith than them, but who knows maybe they’ll be right Im just excited about the new pitching coach and batting coach I think they can work with these guys and get them moving a little in the right direction…..and just for note….can we see a little more enthusiasm out of John Russel this year since Douggy M will be gone and he was the leader of the whole dugout last season

by baseballssp3 on Feb 11, 2009 8:59 AM EST reply actions