Community Projection: Nate McLouth

Post your guesses in the comments about Nate McLouth's 2009 performance by predicting his 2009 batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage, in that orderAs a bonus, you can guess the date of McLouth's first caught stealing of the year. (McLouth, an extremely efficient basestealer, only has five caught stealings for his career, versus 57 steals.)

Here are Nate's career numbers. If you've been lurking, the Community Projections are a great way to get involved at Bucs Dugout, so dive in.

Here are the results of the Community Projections so far, including the Brandon Moss projection, which is now closed:


Ryan Doumit C .289/.346/.477 115 games played .287/.343/.463
Adam LaRoche 1B .279/.350/.508 10th HR on June 11 .268/.343/.485
Freddy Sanchez 2B .300/.332/.419 548 PAs .285/.324/.398
Jack Wilson SS .271/.313/.360 Last 2009 game w/Bucs: August 13
Andy LaRoche 3B .264/.361/.436 124 starts .232/.325/.363
Brandon Moss OF .260/.333/.460 48 extra-base hits .251/.312/.403

It sounds like BD posters are thinking Xavier Nady here. Nady's career line is .280/.335/.458, and like Nady, Moss plays passable defense, has passable power, and doesn't control the strike zone particularly well. ZiPS doesn't think much of Moss, but PECOTA's projection (subscription only) is almost identical to the BD community's, and it sees a bit more breakout potential than you might think, listing Curtis Granderson as Moss' top comparable and also including Graig Nettles, Paul O'Neill, Carlos Pena, Jay Buhner and Ryan Ludwick in his top 20. All those guys (except possibly Granderson) puttered along for a couple years and then posted surprisingly good seasons in their late 20s or early 30s, and Nady did the same thing last year, so Moss may have a longer shelf life than we might think. Of course, the list also contains guys like Kevin Mench, and that still seems like a more likely career path to me.

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