Community Projection: Nate McLouth
by Charlie Wilmoth on Feb 21, 2009 8:00 PM EST
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PrintPost your guesses in the comments about Nate McLouth's 2009 performance by predicting his 2009 batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage, in that order. As a bonus, you can guess the date of McLouth's first caught stealing of the year. (McLouth, an extremely efficient basestealer, only has five caught stealings for his career, versus 57 steals.)
Here are Nate's career numbers. If you've been lurking, the Community Projections are a great way to get involved at Bucs Dugout, so dive in.
Here are the results of the Community Projections so far, including the Brandon Moss projection, which is now closed:
.264/.333/.460
| NAME | POS. | COMMUNITY | BONUS | ZiPS |
| Ryan Doumit | C | .289/.346/.477 | 115 games played | .287/.343/.463 |
| Adam LaRoche | 1B | .279/.350/.508 | 10th HR on June 11 | .268/.343/.485 |
| Freddy Sanchez | 2B | .300/.332/.419 | 548 PAs | .285/.324/.398 |
| Jack Wilson | SS | .271/.313/.360 | Last 2009 game w/Bucs: August 13 |
.267/.317/.358 |
| Andy LaRoche | 3B | .264/.361/.436 | 124 starts | .232/.325/.363 |
| Brandon Moss | OF | .260/.333/.460 | 48 extra-base hits | .251/.312/.403 |
It sounds like BD posters are thinking Xavier Nady here. Nady's career line is .280/.335/.458, and like Nady, Moss plays passable defense, has passable power, and doesn't control the strike zone particularly well. ZiPS doesn't think much of Moss, but PECOTA's projection (subscription only) is almost identical to the BD community's, and it sees a bit more breakout potential than you might think, listing Curtis Granderson as Moss' top comparable and also including Graig Nettles, Paul O'Neill, Carlos Pena, Jay Buhner and Ryan Ludwick in his top 20. All those guys (except possibly Granderson) puttered along for a couple years and then posted surprisingly good seasons in their late 20s or early 30s, and Nady did the same thing last year, so Moss may have a longer shelf life than we might think. Of course, the list also contains guys like Kevin Mench, and that still seems like a more likely career path to me.
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.260/.340/.440
Last year’s second half, IMO, showed a regression to the mean for McLouth. His 07 second half and 08 first half constituted what could very well be a fluke “season” with his decline hastened by the loss of Bay and Nady. Here’s hoping I’m very very wrong.
271/354/474
June 7th
I made most of my life decisions at a Foghat concert... I stand by them.
by Chester J Lampwick on Feb 22, 2009 12:01 PM EST reply actions
.306/.388/.525
No regression to the mean this year. I’m aslo predicting a 30/30 season. He’ll get caught early and get it out of the way. May 2nd. He’ll go 30 out of 33 for the season. I’m going for all kinds of bonus pts here.
McLouth
.280/.360/.490
May 20th or so for the first CS
Our middleweight Carlos Beltran
.270/.360/.485
First CS: July 6th
I think last year reresents his peak ability
and he’s in his peak years, so
.268/.355/.466
April 29th, if a game is played on that date, if not July 14th
273/350/453, picked off on opening day
My numbers look near to so many others I had to go a different route on the caught stealing.
FWIW-21 SB
.285/.360/.480
He struggles a little bit around mid season. He’ll get caught stealing on Tax Day (April 15th), but only get tossed out twice the rest of the year.
molina
yeah, that’s why i picked a cardinals game
.275/.350/.480
First caught stealing on May 4th vs Milwaukee.
by RDV across the sea on Feb 23, 2009 2:35 PM EST reply actions
meh
was out of town and missed the deadline, but for the sake of argument, I’ll speculate that McLouth will improve somewhat this year, to the tune of 285/350/500 (and 30+ HR/100 RBI), and will not be caught stealing by an opposing catcher.
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