Community Projection: Nyjer Morgan

by Charlie on Feb 23, 2009 7:57 PM EST Comment 27 comments

As of right now, Morgan has a corner outfield spot, so let's project him. Predict his 2009 batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage, in that order, in the comments. As a bonus, you can guess the number of games Morgan will hit leadoff for the Bucs.

Here are the results of all the projections so far, including the projection for Nate McLouth, which is now closed:

NAME	POS.	COMMUNITY	BONUS	ZiPS
Ryan Doumit	C	.289/.346/.477	115 games played	.287/.343/.463
Adam LaRoche	1B	.279/.350/.508	10th HR on June 11	.268/.343/.485
Freddy Sanchez	2B	.300/.332/.419	548 PAs	.285/.324/.398
Jack Wilson	SS	.271/.313/.360	Last 2009 game w/Bucs: August 13	.267/.317/.358
Andy LaRoche	3B	.264/.361/.436	124 starts	.232/.325/.363
Brandon Moss	OF	.260/.333/.460	48 extra-base hits	.251/.312/.403
Nate McLouth	CF	.276/.355/.480	First CS on May 21	.261/.342/.459

I'm with the community on this one. I think McLouth is for real. ZiPS doesn't "know" that McLouth also hit very well in the second half of 2007. PECOTA's projection, for what it's worth, is very similar to the community's. Actually, this is the third consecutive projection in which PECOTA and the BD have broadly agreed about players ZiPS is much more pessimistic about.

On May 21, by the way, when McLouth is supposed to be caught stealing for the first time, the Pirates are playing the Nationals, who have a strong-armed catcher in Jesus Flores. Azibuck's bizarre/amusing guess that McLouth's first CS would come on October 14 skewed the averages a little bit, but the overall results make sense anyway. And I suppose it's possible that Azibuck thinks that the Pirates will be facing the Nationals in the NLCS at that time, so, you know, potato/potahto.

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Comments

.300/.350/.380

I think Morgan will lead off in 81 games and steal 55 bases.

by RDV across the sea on Feb 23, 2009 8:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

If he leads off in 81 games

and steals 55…he’s gonna get thrown out stealing 20 or 30 times…because he’s running indiscriminantly.

by Thunder on Feb 24, 2009 12:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Why?

It’s leads off 81, not plays 81. He could hit 9th in another 81, theoretically.

by azibuck on Feb 24, 2009 1:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Theoretically...

yes. Likely…no. I don’t see the Pirates batting him 9th. But then…I’m not the manager either. Or he wouldn’t be starting 81…without some rather flashy numbers.

by Thunder on Feb 24, 2009 5:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I can't imagine them wasting more than 100-150 ABs on him, I hope

.264/.319/.350

17 games batting leadoff

by Scranton on Feb 23, 2009 8:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

.270/.305/.315

an unfortunate 41 games in the lead off spot.

by Chad Bahamas on Feb 23, 2009 8:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'll be optimistic

.294/.342/.386 and leadoff in 48 games.

by shayborg on Feb 23, 2009 9:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

273/308/320

62 games leading off

by ETNBuc on Feb 23, 2009 10:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

.303/.333/.345

14 games leadoff before they submit to the general will to remove him from the lineup, though I think he continues to hit at a 300 clip, just with nothing else to show for it.

Jason
The Hanging Curve

by poorboywilly on Feb 23, 2009 10:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

.289/.329/.363/22 games at leadoff

by azibuck on Feb 23, 2009 11:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

If nothing else, he can hit for AVG

.305/.345/.355 and leadoff in 56 games.

by woobie on Feb 23, 2009 11:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

.270/.310/.320

games batting leadoff…too many…45.

by Thunder on Feb 24, 2009 12:10 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Nyjer

.222/.275/.295. Batting leadoff: 9

by bolton on Feb 24, 2009 1:15 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

.215/.255/.290

he won’t even be a pirate by July. he will disappear into waiver land. His is aging, he had his chances and continues to disappoint. I think they are holding onto him as a stop gap in a talent vacuum. As soon as a replacement is available we will all be laughing at the fact that we actually started him.

10 Quality Starts in a row/Aug. 08 - BUT now we can't hit:(

by .500 Please on Feb 24, 2009 2:31 AM EST reply actions 0 recs