Community Projection: Paul Maholm
by Charlie Wilmoth on Feb 26, 2009 9:08 PM EST
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PrintNow on to the pitchers, the first of whom is the Pirates' nominal ace, Paul Maholm. Predict his 2009 innings pitched, strikeouts, walks and ERA, in that order, in the comments. As a bonus, you can guess the number of victories Maholm will post (he only had nine in 2009 despite pitching very well most of the year). If you're new to Bucs Dugout, community projections are a quick, easy way to start getting involved.
Here are the results of all the projections so far, including the projection for Nyjer Morgan, which is now closed:
| NAME | POS. | COMMUNITY | BONUS | ZiPS |
| Ryan Doumit | C | .289/.346/.477 | 115 games played | .287/.343/.463 |
| Adam LaRoche | 1B | .279/.350/.508 | 10th HR on June 11 | .268/.343/.485 |
| Freddy Sanchez | 2B | .300/.332/.419 | 548 PAs | .285/.324/.398 |
| Jack Wilson | SS | .271/.313/.360 | Last 2009 game w/Bucs: August 13 |
.267/.317/.358 |
| Andy LaRoche | 3B | .264/.361/.436 | 124 starts | .232/.325/.363 |
| Brandon Moss | OF | .260/.333/.460 | 48 extra-base hits | .251/.312/.403 |
| Nate McLouth | CF | .276/.355/.480 | First CS on May 21 | .261/.342/.459 |
| Nyjer Morgan | OF | .274/.318/.348 | 43 games at leadoff | .262/.315/.318 |
I'd say the community was very kind, actually, and BD readers probably aren't known to be big Nyjer fans. He's totally worthless if he can't beat the BD community's projection by a large margin, and neither ZiPS nor PECOTA think he'll do it. PECOTA, in particular, thinks he's just awful. Whatever. I've said my piece on this topic. I hope he proves me wrong.
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I'll be first up
210 IP, 150 K, 50 BB, 3.50 ERA and 14 wins.
but not starting opening day
to avoid the opening day starting pitcher jinx the Pirates seem to have going.
ehhh, whatever
198 IP, 131 K, 56 BB, 4.47 ERA 11 wins
Somehow missed Nyjer projections...
174 IP, 120 K, 63 BB, 3.85 ERA, 11 wins
Pessimistic
189 IP, 128 K, 63 BB, 4.40 ERA. 9 wins again.
167 IP, 88K, 56 BB, 4.19 ERA, 10 Wins
Maholm never finds his groove after the bullpen and some shoddy defense take away some early season success.
I predict marginal improvement in 2009
in 32 starts: 215 IP, 145 K, 60 BB, 3.80 ERA, and 13 wins
FWIW, Maholm’s first/second half splits last year are an encouraging sign:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/psplit.cgi?n1=maholpa01&year=2008
195 IP - 125 K - 52 BB - 4.10 ERA
Hopefully he’ll be more fortunate with the win total this season. I’ll go for 14.
by RDV across the sea on Feb 27, 2009 3:02 PM EST reply actions
Probably wishful thinking, but...
216 IP / 151 K / 57 BB / 3.79 ERA / 13 W
Also, this be my first post.
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