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Community Projection: Paul Maholm

Now on to the pitchers, the first of whom is the Pirates' nominal ace, Paul Maholm. Predict his 2009 innings pitched, strikeouts, walks and ERA, in that order, in the commentsAs a bonus, you can guess the number of victories Maholm will post (he only had nine in 2009 despite pitching very well most of the year). If you're new to Bucs Dugout, community projections are a quick, easy way to start getting involved.

Here are the results of all the projections so far, including the projection for Nyjer Morgan, which is now closed:

NAME POS. COMMUNITY BONUS ZiPS
Ryan Doumit C .289/.346/.477 115 games played .287/.343/.463
Adam LaRoche 1B .279/.350/.508 10th HR on June 11 .268/.343/.485
Freddy Sanchez 2B .300/.332/.419 548 PAs .285/.324/.398
Jack Wilson SS .271/.313/.360 Last 2009 game w/Bucs: August 13
.267/.317/.358
Andy LaRoche 3B .264/.361/.436 124 starts .232/.325/.363
Brandon Moss OF .260/.333/.460 48 extra-base hits .251/.312/.403
Nate McLouth CF .276/.355/.480 First CS on May 21 .261/.342/.459
Nyjer Morgan OF .274/.318/.348 43 games at leadoff .262/.315/.318

I'd say the community was very kind, actually, and BD readers probably aren't known to be big Nyjer fans. He's totally worthless if he can't beat the BD community's projection by a large margin, and neither ZiPS nor PECOTA think he'll do it. PECOTA, in particular, thinks he's just awful. Whatever. I've said my piece on this topic. I hope he proves me wrong.

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I'll be first up

210 IP, 150 K, 50 BB, 3.50 ERA and 14 wins.

by Thunder on Feb 26, 2009 10:31 PM EST reply actions  

but not starting opening day

to avoid the opening day starting pitcher jinx the Pirates seem to have going.

by Thunder on Feb 26, 2009 10:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Paulie was pretty efficient with his innings so I would imagine it would be easier for him to match his inning total. Cuts down on walks, but also Ks. Slightly improved D helps him out a bit.

205 innings pitched

135K/50BB/3.60 ERA

13 wins

by EndlessMike on Feb 26, 2009 11:02 PM EST reply actions  

ehhh, whatever

198 IP, 131 K, 56 BB, 4.47 ERA 11 wins

by Scranton on Feb 26, 2009 11:46 PM EST reply actions  

Paul....

178 IP 120 K 60 BB 4.50 ERA 11 wins

by Brakeman8 on Feb 27, 2009 2:23 AM EST reply actions  

Pessimistic

189 IP, 128 K, 63 BB, 4.40 ERA. 9 wins again.

by shayborg on Feb 27, 2009 4:00 AM EST reply actions  

maholm

156 IP, 106 K, 56 BB, 4..22 ERA 9 wins

by bolton on Feb 27, 2009 5:00 AM EST reply actions  

167 IP, 88K, 56 BB, 4.19 ERA, 10 Wins

Maholm never finds his groove after the bullpen and some shoddy defense take away some early season success.

by ETNBuc on Feb 27, 2009 6:49 AM EST reply actions  

201 IP / 130 K / 60 BB / 3.97 ERA / 11 W

When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro. -- HST

by cocktailsfor2 on Feb 27, 2009 7:19 AM EST reply actions  

I predict marginal improvement in 2009

in 32 starts: 215 IP, 145 K, 60 BB, 3.80 ERA, and 13 wins

FWIW, Maholm’s first/second half splits last year are an encouraging sign:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/psplit.cgi?n1=maholpa01&year=2008

by gonfalon on Feb 27, 2009 12:18 PM EST reply actions  

195 IP - 125 K - 52 BB - 4.10 ERA

Hopefully he’ll be more fortunate with the win total this season. I’ll go for 14.

by RDV across the sea on Feb 27, 2009 3:02 PM EST reply actions  

Probably wishful thinking, but...

216 IP / 151 K / 57 BB / 3.79 ERA / 13 W

Also, this be my first post.

by wg1of5 on Mar 1, 2009 7:09 PM EST reply actions  

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