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Community Projection: Zach Duke

Duke pitched 3 2/3 decent innings today and was already a good bet to make the rotation, so let's project him. Predict his 2009 innings pitched, strikeouts, walks and ERA, in that order in the comments. As a bonus, guess opponents' on-base percentage against Duke.

Here are the results of the community projections so far, including the Andrew McCutchen projection, which is now closed:

NAME POS. COMMUNITY BONUS ZiPS
Ryan Doumit C .289/.346/.477 115 games played .287/.343/.463
Adam LaRoche 1B .279/.350/.508 10th HR on June 11 .268/.343/.485
Freddy Sanchez 2B .300/.332/.419 548 PAs .285/.324/.398
Jack Wilson SS .271/.313/.360 Last 2009 game w/Bucs: August 13
.267/.317/.358
Andy LaRoche 3B .264/.361/.436 124 starts .232/.325/.363
Brandon Moss OF .260/.333/.460 48 extra-base hits .251/.312/.403
Nate McLouth CF .276/.355/.480 First CS on May 21 .261/.342/.459
Nyjer Morgan OF .274/.318/.348 43 games at leadoff .262/.315/.318
Andrew McCutchen OF .264/.334/.392 169 at bats .261/.337/.362

 

NAME POS. COMMUNITY BONUS ZiPS
Paul Maholm SP 184.3 IP, 132K, 58BB, 4.00 ERA 12 wins 180.7 IP, 120K, 60BB, 4.53 ERA
Matt Capps RP 64.3 IP, 55K, 13BB, 3.13 ERA 26 saves 71.7 IP, 55K, 13BB, 3.25 ERA

The McCutchen projection is pretty reasonable. PECOTA's projection (subscription required) is virtually identical to ours, at least in terms of the rate stats. I think the projection for 169 at bats may be a bit pessimistic, if anything.

0 recs  |  Comment 10 comments |

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The eternal optimist...

162 IP, 95K, 40 BB, ERA 4.50. For the OBP….330.

by Thunder on Mar 13, 2009 6:25 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

zach duke

174 IP, 100K, 54BB, 4.55 ERA .342 OBP

by bolton on Mar 13, 2009 7:49 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Duke

186 IP 91 K 56 BB 4.80 ERA .345 OBP

by Brakeman8 on Mar 13, 2009 8:44 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Zach Duke:

201IP 99K 46BB 4.75ERA

10-15 record with 2CGs

I’ve never given Duke much support here, but I’ll try to be optimistic since he’s going to be around at least a couple more years.

by patthatt on Mar 14, 2009 10:40 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

185IP 92K 54BB 5.91 ERA

6-14 record with a .324 opa

by SkeedTom on Mar 14, 2009 11:39 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

ZD

189 IP / 88 K / 48 BB / 4.34 ERA

"Gimme an 'F' ! " - Country Joe MacDonald

by cocktailsfor2 on Mar 14, 2009 8:09 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

based on his previous stats...

(from espn … here), there’s no way Duke’s opponents’ OBP is less than .350.

so I’ll guess 190 IP / 90 K / 45 BB / 4.65 ERA, and the league will have an OBP of .350 against him

by humbucker on Mar 16, 2009 1:23 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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