Community Projection: Zach Duke
by Charlie on Mar 13, 2009 5:49 PM EDT
10 comments
Duke pitched 3 2/3 decent innings today and was already a good bet to make the rotation, so let's project him. Predict his 2009 innings pitched, strikeouts, walks and ERA, in that order in the comments. As a bonus, guess opponents' on-base percentage against Duke.
Here are the results of the community projections so far, including the Andrew McCutchen projection, which is now closed:
| NAME | POS. | COMMUNITY | BONUS | ZiPS |
| Ryan Doumit | C | .289/.346/.477 | 115 games played | .287/.343/.463 |
| Adam LaRoche | 1B | .279/.350/.508 | 10th HR on June 11 | .268/.343/.485 |
| Freddy Sanchez | 2B | .300/.332/.419 | 548 PAs | .285/.324/.398 |
| Jack Wilson | SS | .271/.313/.360 | Last 2009 game w/Bucs: August 13 |
.267/.317/.358 |
| Andy LaRoche | 3B | .264/.361/.436 | 124 starts | .232/.325/.363 |
| Brandon Moss | OF | .260/.333/.460 | 48 extra-base hits | .251/.312/.403 |
| Nate McLouth | CF | .276/.355/.480 | First CS on May 21 | .261/.342/.459 |
| Nyjer Morgan | OF | .274/.318/.348 | 43 games at leadoff | .262/.315/.318 |
| Andrew McCutchen | OF | .264/.334/.392 | 169 at bats | .261/.337/.362 |
| NAME | POS. | COMMUNITY | BONUS | ZiPS |
| Paul Maholm | SP | 184.3 IP, 132K, 58BB, 4.00 ERA | 12 wins | 180.7 IP, 120K, 60BB, 4.53 ERA |
| Matt Capps | RP | 64.3 IP, 55K, 13BB, 3.13 ERA | 26 saves | 71.7 IP, 55K, 13BB, 3.25 ERA |
The McCutchen projection is pretty reasonable. PECOTA's projection (subscription required) is virtually identical to ours, at least in terms of the rate stats. I think the projection for 169 at bats may be a bit pessimistic, if anything.
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The eternal optimist...
162 IP, 95K, 40 BB, ERA 4.50. For the OBP….330.
by Thunder on Mar 13, 2009 6:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
zach duke
174 IP, 100K, 54BB, 4.55 ERA .342 OBP
by bolton on Mar 13, 2009 7:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Duke
186 IP 91 K 56 BB 4.80 ERA .345 OBP
by Brakeman8 on Mar 13, 2009 8:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
190 IP, 105 K, 45 BB, 4.70 ERA
.340 OBP
by Isotopes on Mar 13, 2009 9:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
200 IP 100 K 40 BB 4.40 ERA
.320 OBP
by RDV across the sea on Mar 14, 2009 6:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Zach Duke:
201IP 99K 46BB 4.75ERA
10-15 record with 2CGs
I’ve never given Duke much support here, but I’ll try to be optimistic since he’s going to be around at least a couple more years.
by patthatt on Mar 14, 2009 10:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
185IP 92K 54BB 5.91 ERA
6-14 record with a .324 opa
by SkeedTom on Mar 14, 2009 11:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
ZD
189 IP / 88 K / 48 BB / 4.34 ERA
"Gimme an 'F' ! " - Country Joe MacDonald
by cocktailsfor2 on Mar 14, 2009 8:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
based on his previous stats...
(from espn … here), there’s no way Duke’s opponents’ OBP is less than .350.
so I’ll guess 190 IP / 90 K / 45 BB / 4.65 ERA, and the league will have an OBP of .350 against him
by humbucker on Mar 16, 2009 1:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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