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Community Projection: Zach Duke

by Charlie Wilmoth on Mar 13, 2009 5:49 PM EDT

Duke pitched 3 2/3 decent innings today and was already a good bet to make the rotation, so let's project him. Predict his 2009 innings pitched, strikeouts, walks and ERA, in that order in the comments. As a bonus, guess opponents' on-base percentage against Duke.

Here are the results of the community projections so far, including the Andrew McCutchen projection, which is now closed:

NAME	POS.	COMMUNITY	BONUS	ZiPS
Ryan Doumit	C	.289/.346/.477	115 games played	.287/.343/.463
Adam LaRoche	1B	.279/.350/.508	10th HR on June 11	.268/.343/.485
Freddy Sanchez	2B	.300/.332/.419	548 PAs	.285/.324/.398
Jack Wilson	SS	.271/.313/.360	Last 2009 game w/Bucs: August 13	.267/.317/.358
Andy LaRoche	3B	.264/.361/.436	124 starts	.232/.325/.363
Brandon Moss	OF	.260/.333/.460	48 extra-base hits	.251/.312/.403
Nate McLouth	CF	.276/.355/.480	First CS on May 21	.261/.342/.459
Nyjer Morgan	OF	.274/.318/.348	43 games at leadoff	.262/.315/.318
Andrew McCutchen	OF	.264/.334/.392	169 at bats	.261/.337/.362

NAME	POS.	COMMUNITY	BONUS	ZiPS
Paul Maholm	SP	184.3 IP, 132K, 58BB, 4.00 ERA	12 wins	180.7 IP, 120K, 60BB, 4.53 ERA
Matt Capps	RP	64.3 IP, 55K, 13BB, 3.13 ERA	26 saves	71.7 IP, 55K, 13BB, 3.25 ERA

The McCutchen projection is pretty reasonable. PECOTA's projection (subscription required) is virtually identical to ours, at least in terms of the rate stats. I think the projection for 169 at bats may be a bit pessimistic, if anything.

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Read More: community projections, Zach Duke (P - HOU), Andrew McCutchen (CF - PIT), Pittsburgh Pirates

Comments

The eternal optimist...

162 IP, 95K, 40 BB, ERA 4.50. For the OBP….330.

by Thunder on Mar 13, 2009 6:25 PM EDT reply actions

zach duke

174 IP, 100K, 54BB, 4.55 ERA .342 OBP

by bolton on Mar 13, 2009 7:49 PM EDT reply actions

Duke

186 IP 91 K 56 BB 4.80 ERA .345 OBP

by Brakeman8 on Mar 13, 2009 8:44 PM EDT reply actions

190 IP, 105 K, 45 BB, 4.70 ERA

.340 OBP

by Isotopes on Mar 13, 2009 9:22 PM EDT reply actions

200 IP 100 K 40 BB 4.40 ERA

.320 OBP

by RDV across the sea on Mar 14, 2009 6:12 AM EDT reply actions

Zach Duke:

201IP 99K 46BB 4.75ERA

10-15 record with 2CGs

I’ve never given Duke much support here, but I’ll try to be optimistic since he’s going to be around at least a couple more years.

by patthatt on Mar 14, 2009 10:40 AM EDT reply actions

215/117/67/4.05/.300 OBP

by azibuck on Mar 14, 2009 11:35 AM EDT reply actions

185IP 92K 54BB 5.91 ERA

6-14 record with a .324 opa

by SkeedTom on Mar 14, 2009 11:39 AM EDT reply actions

ZD

189 IP / 88 K / 48 BB / 4.34 ERA

"Gimme an 'F' ! " - Country Joe MacDonald

by cocktailsfor2 on Mar 14, 2009 8:09 PM EDT reply actions

based on his previous stats...

(from espn … here), there’s no way Duke’s opponents’ OBP is less than .350.

so I’ll guess 190 IP / 90 K / 45 BB / 4.65 ERA, and the league will have an OBP of .350 against him

by gonfalon on Mar 16, 2009 1:23 PM EDT reply actions

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