BP Ranks Pirates' Farm System 22nd

by Charlie on Mar 17, 2009 4:37 PM EDT Comment 51 comments

Baseball Prospectus (subscription required) ranks Major League Baseball's farm systems and places the Pirates 22nd out of 30. The author, Kevin Goldstein, isn't the sort of prospect hound who writes like he has a bone to gnaw, so his conclusion is disappointing, particularly after reading stuff like this:

Pedro Alvarez crushed a ninth-inning, two-out, three-run, pinch-hit, home run that traveled somewhere between 440 feet and, were it not for the high center-field screen, the Atlantic Ocean. Andrew McCutchen made a diving catch in center field and had an extra-base hit where even he heard most of the 6,968 patrons in Charlotte Sports Park gasp audibly as he sped around second to stretch it into a triple. Jose Tabata had a sacrifice fly to score McCutchen, a double and a throw to home plate that nailed one of the major league's fastest baserunners, Carl Crawford, by an easy 6 feet.

I'm as big a fan of Alvarez and Tabata as there is, and I'm thrilled with the improvements the Pirates' new front office has made to the team's minor league system, but Goldstein is basically right. I might argue that the Pirates' system is closer to the middle of the pack, but I'd do so halfheartedly, because the fact is that right now the Bucs have three genuinely excellent prospects, and a bunch of suspects after that.

The new administration has acquired a number of high-upside players (Bryan Morris, Robbie Grossman, Quinton Miller, Wesley Freeman) who have a ton to prove before they even make any Top 100 Prospects lists, much less make an impact in the majors. There's also Brad Lincoln and Neil Walker, top draft picks left over from the Littlefield/Creech era who still have some promise but have mostly been pushed off the map by injury or poor performance. Everyone in the Pirates' system is a Grade C+ guy or worse. Other than Lincoln and Daniel McCutchen, there aren't any legitimate pitching prospects above Class A.

None of this reflects badly upon the Pirates' current management. The issue is simply that these things take time. Depending on how you define "prospect," the average prospect probably spends about three or four years in the minors, so it will take three or four good drafts to really fortify the system, and Neal Huntington and Frank Coonelly have only had one. The Pirates' best-case scenario for the next few years involves more good drafting, the emergence of Alvarez as a superstar and of Tabata and Andrew McCutchen as lineup staples. If those things don't happen, the Pirates will probably struggle.

That's not a particularly rosy outlook for the near term, but the good news is that Huntington and Coonelly are doing things the right way. They need a number of lucky breaks to compete in 2011 or 2012, but if they continue drafting, signing amateurs, and trading as they did in 2008, their odds of success for the years after that will increase greatly.

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Goldstein’s credibility takes a big hit when you see that he has the Pirates dropping five spots from last year. They added Alvarez, Tabata, Morris and Grossman, among others, lost nobody of consequence, yet they got worse??

As for Goldstein having a bone to gnaw, during the grievance last fall he pretty much adopted the union line—that the Pirates and MLB were involved in a conspiracy to rob Alvarez of his bargaining position and that MLB delayed approving Eric Hosmer’s deal just to give Coonelly cover—hook, line and sinker. He then undermined himself by reporting that Hosmer did in fact agree after Alvarez, which is probably why the union pressured Boras to settle the case. I think Goldstein took a pretty severe dislike to Coonelly (which is understandable to some degree) and it affected his reporting. Looking at the insane proposition that the Pirates’ farm system has gotten worse over the last year, I’m inclined to think something is clouding his judgment here.

by WTM on Mar 17, 2009 4:54 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

I can’t top that fine reply. I’d just like to add that while rankings are fun, they are meaningless. I think we know the strengths and weaknesses without having a number assigned. What’s really the difference between 17th and 22nd? It’s just an easy column to write and he can spread it over two days.

by bolton on Mar 17, 2009 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

That makes sense....

It sounds like he’s knocking them down five notches because Daniel Moskos turned out to be as bad as Pirates fans thought he’d be, either that or the rest of major league baseball just got a whole lot better than the Pirates, but I doubt any team added a talent like Alvarez…

by IAPiratesFan on Mar 18, 2009 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I suspect Goldstein is downgrading Alvarez due to the controversy and because he showed up overweight last fall. John Manuel did the same thing. Since he’s in good shape now, I don’t see what difference the weight last fall makes, and I don’t see what difference the grievance could possibly make in his playing ability.

by WTM on Mar 18, 2009 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Could also be a function...

…more of what the other people around us have been doing than of what we’ve been doing ourselves. If he thinks that we got a little bit better, and the teams under us got a lot better, we’ll have a better farm system but a lower ranking.

by Vlad on Mar 19, 2009 9:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It’s hard to see how the overall quality in the minors could have taken such a leap forward. Was there just an incredible explosion of baseball talent in kids born in 1989 or something?

by WTM on Mar 19, 2009 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It happens, sometimes.

Talent clusters and droughts are just a part of the biz. Look at the 1987 ROY voting, for example, or the first round of the 2000 draft.

I don’t know that it’s necessarily what’s going on here, but the thought had occurred to me. You wouldn’t even need a big swing in the overall quality of the minors – just in the systems of the few teams clustered in our immediate vicinity, assuming that the margins were narrow.

by Vlad on Mar 19, 2009 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not smart enough to have an opinion

I don’t follow the minor league rosters of the ML teams, so I can’t really dispute BP’s rankings.

I do know though that this spring is a lot more fun for this fan than last year.

Last year the SP rotation was set before spring training even began – no amount of suckiness seemed to budge management off of, say a Matt Morris (39 hits and 20 ER’s in 18 2/3 IP). Every fan knew the tank was empty, but Morris still made the rotation. It was sad.

Other than watching Rule 5’er Evan Meek to see if there was any chance he could stick (and it seemed like he couldn’t), it seemed a pretty boring spring. Hope did not spring eternal for this fan.

The only competition I remember was whether Nyjer Morgan would be handed the starting CF job over Nate. Up until a week or two before the season started, management backed Morgan despite all stats showing Nate the clear winner. My frustration overflowed.

This spring it’s like the birds are singing and the flowers blooming by comparison. Charlie’s quote above is hardly the only one of its kind. The prospects are killer, except for Hinske’s incomplete grade the new hires are all testing out impressively, and it even looks like 3-4 SP are pitching well.

In short, I feel like I got something to look forward to. Watching Pearce to see if he has hopes of replacing Ad. LaRoche in 2010? Judging if Tabata and A-Cutch can be OF starters in 2010? Wondering if Pedro (or Walker) can move Luigi to 2B next year, or if Bixler might actually be a productive ML starting SS?

The only fly in my ointment remains management’s curious refusal to kick Nyjer Morgan to the curb. I read with disgust this quote from Huntington 2 days ago:

“When he gets on base, he’s making good decisions. But it’s going to come down to his strike-zone discipline, his ability to draw walks, his ability to get on base by driving the ball, not just slapping the ball, . . . gap to gap. When he stays within himself, he can be a weapon.”

Dude, Morgan is hitting .186, with 2 BB in 43 AB. His “good decisions” when on base? He’s got 2 SB in 4 chances, has been thrown out at 3B and picked off 1B. An OPS under .510 (is that even possible?) A spit ball is a more dangerous “weapon.”

But it’s nice to have Morgan to kick around. Let’s me know I’m still rooting for the PBC.

by WstCstBucco on Mar 17, 2009 7:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

For example

Tabata singles in the 2nd off of CC Sabathia, steals 2nd on Posada and scores on a single by Pearce. That’s 2010 Pirate baseball, and it makes me very happy. Take that BP.

Anyone notice the starting lineup against Sabathia tonight? Except for Wilson and McLouth, no other starters (well, Morgan is leading off). Russell is throwing the kids to the wolf.

by WstCstBucco on Mar 17, 2009 7:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

How is it

that we draft so high every year and still have this inept a farm system?

Hopefully, Pedro can advance through the system quickly, and we can have Tabata, Alvarez, and McCutchen all in the bigs the season after this.

There are at least some watchable players in our system.

I can only hope they pan out to be “good” players, but we’ll have to wait and see, I suppose.

by Suffering Buc on Mar 17, 2009 11:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Our scouting director under Littlefield, Ed Creech...

…wouldn’t recognize a ballplayer if one walked up and slapped him. And we spent nothing on foreign talent in those years. Ergo, our farm system under them sucked once they ran out of guys brought in under the prior regime.

by Vlad on Mar 18, 2009 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Creech

I thought I recently read that McCutchen was one of the few picks in which Littlefield actually listened to Creech’s recommendation. Anyone know any more about that? I’ve only really followed the draft the past couple years. Maybe Creech gets a bit of a raw deal?

Pittsburgh Lumber Co.
http://mvn.com/pittsburghlumberco

by MBandi on Mar 19, 2009 7:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It’s possible. John Perrotto has written a number of times that Littlefield dictated some of the first round picks. That probably happened with both Bullington and Moskos. I still don’t think Creech got a raw deal, though. The Pirates have done just as poor a job in the later rounds as the first, and I doubt Littlefield paid any attention to those picks. And Creech did a lousy job for the Expos and Dodgers before he came to Pittsburgh.

by WTM on Mar 19, 2009 8:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe yes, maybe no.

Part of the job involves convincining your GM that your recommendations are sound. So if he couldn’t perform that part of the job, then he wasn’t a good SD, even if he was giving good advice (which seems unlikely to me, but I guess is possible).

The few recommendations from Creech that I remember are that he liked Upton over Bullington in 2002 (which is a point in his favor), that he was pulling hard for Jeff Allison in 2003 (a point against him, in that he apparently missed Allison’s huge drug issues), and that he had the team locked in on Greg Reynolds in 2006, but was thwarted when the Rockies took him at #2 (which looks like a bad call from the way Reynolds has pitched so far).

by Vlad on Mar 19, 2009 9:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Could be he just figured Reynolds was a Littlefield kind of pick. The fool had a hardon for tall, lean finesse pitchers.

by WTM on Mar 19, 2009 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

True.

by Vlad on Mar 19, 2009 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If Neil Walker stinks in 09...

then let’s bury him. In the meantime, why don’t we lighten the eff up. I don’t know how he manages to play with everyone on every Pirate message board and blog shoveling dirt on him. He’s twenty-freakin-three. Why don’t we let 09 play out before we inter the guy once and for all.

by mocasdad on Mar 18, 2009 7:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Usually all it takes is back-to-back hitless games and you have a crowd of people calling for a player to be released. If they got rid of a player every time the fans started calling for somebody’s head, there’d be nobody on the major league team aside from the parrot and about three guys in the farm system.

by WTM on Mar 18, 2009 8:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't know too many people shoveling dirt on Walker...

it’s actually been my contention that he (and Pearce) haven’t…and won’t be given the same chances that a few others have been. The trade acquisitions are being given every chance in the world to succeed or fail. Any one else…if they struggle at all…gets buried. The one exception being Mr. Excitement.

by Thunder on Mar 18, 2009 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

With any luck...

…he doesn’t read that crap.

Reading your own press clippings (good or bad) never brought anybody anything worth having.

by Vlad on Mar 18, 2009 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

this might sound crazy

but i think i would rather have a few great prospects than a bunch of good ones. i mean i guess in terms of trade bait a bunch of good ones would be better to use in trades, but great prospects r important. those three alone shouldve gotten us into the middle of the pack. i hope you know what i mean cuz im havin trouble explaining.

I GOT MY STREET BUZZ BEFORE I GOT MY PEACH FUZZ

by omar moreno on Mar 18, 2009 8:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It all depends...

…on what you mean by “great” and “good” ones. Is it better to have Johan Santana and four Zach Dukes in the rotation or five Paul Maholms? Is it better to have Albert Pujols and 7 Adam Kennedys or have 8 Corey Harts (the OF for Milwaukee, not the Canadian singer)?

A team that has one or two “great” players with a whole bunch of chaff around them probably isn’t going to win as many games as a team that has “good” players at every position. That’s why having Jason Bay on the Pirates was a waste, because for as close to “great” as he was, the team still had too many below-average players for him to carry.

I agree that it is important to have the Alvarezes, Tabatas and McCutchens of the world in the system, but I’d rather have a better replacement for Jack Wilson than Brian Bixler or for Adam LaRoche than Garrett Jones.

by Bishop1973 on Mar 18, 2009 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not sure what your last comment means?

Do you mean you don’t like Bixler and Jones as backups for this year at SS and 1B?

If you mean you don’t like them as starters next year, well I’m not 100% sure that’s the direction. The PBC has for over a year tried to get a SS in trade. But Bixler has had a fine spring and if he keeps it up he may be promoted if Wilson is traded this year. It wouldn’ t hurt my feelings to give him another chance based on this spring.

And I don’t really hear anyone in management projecting Garrett Jones as Adam LaRoche’s replacement if he’s traded this year or not resigned for next year. Steve Pearce still is mentioned first in this context. If he doesn’t work out, I’m pretty sure management is going to get to Pedro Alvarez as a 1B pretty soon — he’s got Willie Stargell’s body and there are 2 other prospects that can play 3B. And in third place currently is Tabata — many who’ve seen him play say his long term future is at 1B due to his heavy legs.

by WstCstBucco on Mar 18, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was playing off of the original comment about rather having a couple of great prospects than a bunch of good ones. Teams win because they have above-average players at every position, not because they have stars at one or two and a bunch of Bixlers, Jones and Morgans at the rest. While it’s great the Pirates have Alvarez, Tabata and McCutchen, they only solve three position problems, while there are no immediate, or even long-range, answers at 1B, 2B or SS, and the pitching is fairly thin on quality, although Huntington has addressed quantity and even upgraded the miserable collection of rejects that he was handed last year (JVB, Bullington, Herrera, etc.).

Brian Bixler may be having a decent spring, but I am still having nightmares about his MLB time last year. No matter what the team says, Steve Pearce has fallen out of favor and they are just jerking him around until they figure out what to do with Alvarez and Tabata; I figure Garrett Jones would be the first call-up to replace Adam LaRoche and Jones is probably not much more than minor-league filler.

by Bishop1973 on Mar 18, 2009 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Few great prospects

The Phillies would certainly agree. Their system has never been highly regarded and has never had much depth, but it’s turned out Howard, Rollins, Burrell, Utley, Hamels, and Myers. Any mediocre GM could build a contender if he had that to start with.

by WTM on Mar 18, 2009 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

WHOA!!!!

Gorzo optioned to minor league camp this morning…as well as Tabata.

http://community.post-gazette.com/blogs/pbc/archive/2009/03/18/pirates-option-gorzelanny-tabata-to-minors.aspx

by Thunder on Mar 18, 2009 9:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

wow...

I had predicted that Gorzelanny would open in AAA, but that was just a guess. he must still be hurt, or rehabbing.

by humbucker on Mar 18, 2009 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Or unable to find the plate, with velocity, or he's a baby

I don’t know how fast he’s throwing this spring, but last year he’d lost 2-3mph off his fastball.

And in the game recap the other day he referred to the hits that got by Luis Cruz as “punch the wall” hits or something like that. Geezus, grow up. (s)Hit(s) happen. He’s had problems keeping his cool before, and if he’s being vocal with blaming his fielders or catchers (my speculation, no evidence, I said "if"), then maybe this is another message and an accountability statement.

by azibuck on Mar 18, 2009 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cut the guy a break.

It’s not like he was actually punching a wall. He was just saying that he was frustrated.

by Vlad on Mar 18, 2009 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was definitely reading between the lines

The game recap (by Finder I think) really seemed to emphasize the balls Cruz didn’t get to, so I pieced it together.

The PPG blog update at 2:20 today has NH lay out very clearly the reasons, so nevermind my conspiracy theory.

by azibuck on Mar 18, 2009 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

and besides

in pirates lingo, it’s “kick the laundry cart” hits you have to worry about.

by johnnycuff on Mar 19, 2009 12:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm glad Gorzo and Tabata were optioned

Gorzo was just soaking up innings that Jason Davis needs to pitch to show whether he can make a return as a ML starting pitcher. I ain’t buying Karstens and Vazquez has shown absolutely nothing except an ability to be crushed by the Yankees. Sending Gorzo down also is another wakeup call to the rest of the team that you actually have to perform to play for the PBC (unless your initials are "NM").

And while its truly fun to watch Tabata show Nyjer Morgan how to be a ML OF this spring, management needed to send him down to get more ABs for Hinske, Salazar, Jones, Phillips and Moss. They need overwhelming proof to convince themselves to send Morgan back to Indianapolis.

by WstCstBucco on Mar 18, 2009 12:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Good post

I’m with you on both points although I wouldn’t have minded for Tabata to have stuck around for a little longer especially with Moss injured for a few days.

I made most of my life decisions at a Foghat concert... I stand by them.

by Chester J Lampwick on Mar 18, 2009 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jason Davis doesn't need to show anything.

He’s 29, and he has almost 500 career ML innings. He’s a known quantity.

If they decide to go with Davis in the rotation, it’ll be because of what the other options did, not because of his own performance.

by Vlad on Mar 18, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree Vlad, but

Jason Davis needs the innings that Gorzo has been pitching.

The PG says today:

Jason Davis ostensibly is considered a starting-rotation candidate, though this former middle reliever hasn’t yet started an exhibition and first pitched multiple innings on Sunday, with two.

by WstCstBucco on Mar 18, 2009 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think that bit just means...

…that they’re keeping him in the competition on paper so the other guys don’t slack off, but they don’t have any intention of actually giving him the job.

by Vlad on Mar 18, 2009 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You must be right, Vlad

Jason Davis got another 2 innings of work today, just 3 days after his last 2 IP appearance.

Looks like they aren’t fooling anyone that Davis is getting a chance to join the rotation out of spring training.

Gotta admit I’m not really happy with PBC painting themselves into a Karstens/Vasquez corner for the 5th SP job.

Maybe they are still looking at Pedro Martinez? I sincerely doubt it, but otherwise it’s just a stupid move to put all your starting rotation eggs in this basket . By which I mean not giving Davis a real shot when Karstens and Vasquez are looking bad and others may be doing it this spring with mirrors.

by WstCstBucco on Mar 18, 2009 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think Karstens would be OK.

CHONE has him at a 4.25 ERA for the year, and ZiPS thinks he’s good for a 5.18. The latter seems more likely to me than the former, but that’s still no worse than the type of season Josh Fogg used to give us. I mean, it’s not good, but it’s not Morris bad, either, and we could rotate him out further into the season if Barthmaier or Dumatrait or Lincoln or someone would seem to warrant a promotion.

by Vlad on Mar 18, 2009 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

no pedro

but odalis perez could be had for a major league deal.

by johnnycuff on Mar 19, 2009 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I just threw up in my mouth a little bit

Odalis Perez is famously taking advice this spring from Derek “Operation Shutdown” Bell.

Wikipedia states:

Pérez agreeed to a minor league contract with the Nationals prior to the 2009 season. However, he had second thoughts and did not report to spring training, instead wanting a major league deal. He was subsequently released. . . . Pérez received counseling and advice from former professional baseball player Derek Bell before initiating his holdout in the Spring of 2009.

Why in god’s green earth would the PBC want anything to do with a guy who takes advice from Derek Bell??

by WstCstBucco on Mar 19, 2009 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure if anyone else has brought this up yet,

but Shawn Hill was released by the Nats just the other day. I know he’s injury prone, but I think there’s some upside with him. I don’t know about anyone else, but I’d like to have Hill over Pedro or Odalis Perez.

by Isotopes on Mar 19, 2009 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think that right now...

…Hill is less “injury prone” and more “injured”. I’d be willing to take a look at him once he gets back near game shape, of course, but I don’t think he’ll be pitching for a while.

by Vlad on Mar 20, 2009 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs