Community Projection: Matt Capps

We still haven't been through most of the starters, but I figure we'll save the rest of them for last. All except Paul Maholm are in competition for jobs, at least theoretically, and the longer we wait the more we'll know about who's actually likely to be in the rotation.

So, next up is Matt Capps. Predict his 2009 innings pitched, strikeouts, walks and ERA, in that order, in the commentsAs a bonus, you can guess Capps' saves total for the year. If you're new to Bucs Dugout, community projections are an easy way to start getting involved.

Here are the results of the projections so far, including the Maholm projection, which is closed:

NAME POS. COMMUNITY BONUS ZiPS
Ryan Doumit C .289/.346/.477 115 games played .287/.343/.463
Adam LaRoche 1B .279/.350/.508 10th HR on June 11 .268/.343/.485
Freddy Sanchez 2B .300/.332/.419 548 PAs .285/.324/.398
Jack Wilson SS .271/.313/.360 Last 2009 game w/Bucs: August 13
.267/.317/.358
Andy LaRoche 3B .264/.361/.436 124 starts .232/.325/.363
Brandon Moss OF .260/.333/.460 48 extra-base hits .251/.312/.403
Nate McLouth CF .276/.355/.480 First CS on May 21 .261/.342/.459
Nyjer Morgan OF .274/.318/.348 43 games at leadoff .262/.315/.318

 

NAME POS. COMMUNITY BONUS ZiPS
Paul Maholm SP 184.3 IP, 132K, 58BB, 4.00 ERA 12 wins 180.7 IP, 120K, 60BB, 4.53 ERA

ZiPS is on board with the community's guesses about innings pitched and walks, but not so much for the strikeouts and ERA. Both ZiPS and the community agree that there will be some regression in comparison to last year's 3.71 ERA, and I agree, since a smaller percentage of balls in play fell in for Maholm last year than for others who had to pitch with the Bucs' atrocious defense behind them. The issue is how much. A lot could depend on Andy LaRoche's health, actually. He had a very good defensive reputation with the Dodgers, and if he's healthier this year, he could be a big improvement over both the 2008 version of himself and over Jose Bautista. That might mean a lot to a left-handed groundball pitcher like Maholm.

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