Community Projection: Matt Capps

by Charlie on Mar 2, 2009 9:23 PM EST Comment 15 comments

We still haven't been through most of the starters, but I figure we'll save the rest of them for last. All except Paul Maholm are in competition for jobs, at least theoretically, and the longer we wait the more we'll know about who's actually likely to be in the rotation.

So, next up is Matt Capps. Predict his 2009 innings pitched, strikeouts, walks and ERA, in that order, in the comments. As a bonus, you can guess Capps' saves total for the year. If you're new to Bucs Dugout, community projections are an easy way to start getting involved.

Here are the results of the projections so far, including the Maholm projection, which is closed:

NAME	POS.	COMMUNITY	BONUS	ZiPS
Ryan Doumit	C	.289/.346/.477	115 games played	.287/.343/.463
Adam LaRoche	1B	.279/.350/.508	10th HR on June 11	.268/.343/.485
Freddy Sanchez	2B	.300/.332/.419	548 PAs	.285/.324/.398
Jack Wilson	SS	.271/.313/.360	Last 2009 game w/Bucs: August 13	.267/.317/.358
Andy LaRoche	3B	.264/.361/.436	124 starts	.232/.325/.363
Brandon Moss	OF	.260/.333/.460	48 extra-base hits	.251/.312/.403
Nate McLouth	CF	.276/.355/.480	First CS on May 21	.261/.342/.459
Nyjer Morgan	OF	.274/.318/.348	43 games at leadoff	.262/.315/.318

NAME	POS.	COMMUNITY	BONUS	ZiPS
Paul Maholm	SP	184.3 IP, 132K, 58BB, 4.00 ERA	12 wins	180.7 IP, 120K, 60BB, 4.53 ERA

ZiPS is on board with the community's guesses about innings pitched and walks, but not so much for the strikeouts and ERA. Both ZiPS and the community agree that there will be some regression in comparison to last year's 3.71 ERA, and I agree, since a smaller percentage of balls in play fell in for Maholm last year than for others who had to pitch with the Bucs' atrocious defense behind them. The issue is how much. A lot could depend on Andy LaRoche's health, actually. He had a very good defensive reputation with the Dodgers, and if he's healthier this year, he could be a big improvement over both the 2008 version of himself and over Jose Bautista. That might mean a lot to a left-handed groundball pitcher like Maholm.

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Comments

I'll take the first stab at it.

75 IP, 60 K, 11 BB, 2.50 ERA, 26 saves.

by Thunder on Mar 2, 2009 9:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Fwiw, I like him for fantasy purposes. Outside of “sure-things” Soria, Papelbon, etc., Capps is as good as any of them (I put him 10th or better among closers). Does that count as a projection? ;-P

by wickethewok on Mar 3, 2009 12:21 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

assuming Capps is healthy all year

60 IP, 10 BB, 50 K, 2.60 ERA, and 44 saves (but only 30 of those saves with Pittsburgh — Capps will be traded to a contender at the non-waiver deadline).

by humbucker on Mar 3, 2009 10:42 AM EST reply actions 0 recs