Community Projection: Ian Snell

by Charlie Wilmoth on Mar 21, 2009 6:55 PM EDT

With his rotation spot now a virtual lock, how do you think Ian Snell will do this year? Guess in the comments by predicting his 2009 innings pitched, strikeouts, walks and ERA, in that order. As a bonus, you can predict the percentage of Snell's 2009 pitches that will be fastballs. (Data on that for prior seasons can be found here.)

Here are the results of the projections so far, including the one for Zach Duke, which is now closed:

NAME	POS.	COMMUNITY	BONUS	ZiPS
Ryan Doumit	C	.289/.346/.477	115 games played	.287/.343/.463
Adam LaRoche	1B	.279/.350/.508	10th HR on June 11	.268/.343/.485
Freddy Sanchez	2B	.300/.332/.419	548 PAs	.285/.324/.398
Jack Wilson	SS	.271/.313/.360	Last 2009 game w/Bucs: August 13	.267/.317/.358
Andy LaRoche	3B	.264/.361/.436	124 starts	.232/.325/.363
Brandon Moss	OF	.260/.333/.460	48 extra-base hits	.251/.312/.403
Nate McLouth	CF	.276/.355/.480	First CS on May 21	.261/.342/.459
Nyjer Morgan	OF	.274/.318/.348	43 games at leadoff	.262/.315/.318
Andrew McCutchen	OF	.264/.334/.392	169 at bats	.261/.337/.362

NAME	POS.	COMMUNITY	BONUS	ZiPS
Paul Maholm	SP	184.3 IP, 132K, 58BB, 4.00 ERA	12 wins	180.7 IP, 120K, 60BB, 4.53 ERA
Zach Duke	SP	189 IP, 98 K, 50 BB, 4.77 ERA	.331 OBP against	148.7 IP, 75 K, 42 BB, 5.27 ERA
Matt Capps	RP	64.3 IP, 55K, 13BB, 3.13 ERA	26 saves	71.7 IP, 55K, 13BB, 3.25 ERA

Obviously, ZiPS doesn't like Duke very much. Given a good defense behind him, I think he could still have a solid career, but the Pirates don't have one of those. My guess is that he falls between ZiPS and the community projection.

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