Community Projection: Ian Snell
by Charlie on Mar 21, 2009 6:55 PM EDT
19 comments
With his rotation spot now a virtual lock, how do you think Ian Snell will do this year? Guess in the comments by predicting his 2009 innings pitched, strikeouts, walks and ERA, in that order. As a bonus, you can predict the percentage of Snell's 2009 pitches that will be fastballs. (Data on that for prior seasons can be found here.)
Here are the results of the projections so far, including the one for Zach Duke, which is now closed:
| NAME | POS. | COMMUNITY | BONUS | ZiPS |
| Ryan Doumit | C | .289/.346/.477 | 115 games played | .287/.343/.463 |
| Adam LaRoche | 1B | .279/.350/.508 | 10th HR on June 11 | .268/.343/.485 |
| Freddy Sanchez | 2B | .300/.332/.419 | 548 PAs | .285/.324/.398 |
| Jack Wilson | SS | .271/.313/.360 | Last 2009 game w/Bucs: August 13 |
.267/.317/.358 |
| Andy LaRoche | 3B | .264/.361/.436 | 124 starts | .232/.325/.363 |
| Brandon Moss | OF | .260/.333/.460 | 48 extra-base hits | .251/.312/.403 |
| Nate McLouth | CF | .276/.355/.480 | First CS on May 21 | .261/.342/.459 |
| Nyjer Morgan | OF | .274/.318/.348 | 43 games at leadoff | .262/.315/.318 |
| Andrew McCutchen | OF | .264/.334/.392 | 169 at bats | .261/.337/.362 |
| NAME | POS. | COMMUNITY | BONUS | ZiPS |
| Paul Maholm | SP | 184.3 IP, 132K, 58BB, 4.00 ERA | 12 wins | 180.7 IP, 120K, 60BB, 4.53 ERA |
| Zach Duke | SP | 189 IP, 98 K, 50 BB, 4.77 ERA | .331 OBP against | 148.7 IP, 75 K, 42 BB, 5.27 ERA |
| Matt Capps | RP | 64.3 IP, 55K, 13BB, 3.13 ERA | 26 saves | 71.7 IP, 55K, 13BB, 3.25 ERA |
Obviously, ZiPS doesn't like Duke very much. Given a good defense behind him, I think he could still have a solid career, but the Pirates don't have one of those. My guess is that he falls between ZiPS and the community projection.
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I.Snell
180.2 IP / 170 K / 61 BB / 4.22 ERA / 60% FB
"Gimme an 'F' ! " - Country Joe MacDonald
by cocktailsfor2 on Mar 21, 2009 7:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Snell
192 IP/ 164 K/ 63 BB/ 4.01 ERA/ 64% FB
by joegonzo on Mar 21, 2009 8:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
#45
185 IP 171 K 56 BB 4.75 ERA 62% Fastballs
by Brakeman8 on Mar 21, 2009 9:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Snell fastballs
I’m thinking 58% fastballs
by kjcity520 on Mar 22, 2009 2:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
124 IP 86 K 76 BB 6.58 ERA 65% FB
2-9 w-l
and much more of the same old pain to watch any game he pitches
by God Loves on Mar 22, 2009 6:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
206 IP 173 K 72 BB 3.42 ERA 63 % FB
16-11 W-L
by OpiateOfTheMasses on Mar 22, 2009 8:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
180 IP, 155 K, 60 BB, 4.10 ERA
59% fastballs
by DITO on Mar 22, 2009 9:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
160IP, 120K, 60BB, 60% fastballs
and a significant arm injury late in the season.
by patthatt on Mar 23, 2009 10:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
180IP, 153K, 76BB, 4.92ERA, 59% FB
charity standing orders
by BadMaafala on Mar 23, 2009 10:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
185 IP, 168 K, 70 BB, 3.99 ERA
63% Fastballs
by Isotopes on Mar 23, 2009 3:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
140IP, 110 K, 60 BB, 5.00 ERA
FB% is just a guess, but I’ll say 60%. I swear Snell would benefit mightily from a move to the pen.
Pittsburgh Black And Gold -- So new, it still smells like paint!
by JustinM on Mar 23, 2009 3:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
192ip/163k/76bb/4.34era
58.8% fastballs
by johnnycuff on Mar 23, 2009 3:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Snell Projection
193 IP, 175 K, 71 BB, 4.64 ERA. 57.8 FB%. Optimistic, I’d assume. And I second the notion to make Snell a reliever.
by wg1of5 on Mar 25, 2009 7:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Snell
178 IP, 129 k’s, 61 BB, 4.67 ERA, 63% fb
by dsavavge04 on Mar 25, 2009 10:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
split the difference between 2007 and 2008
186 IP, 156 K, 79 BB, 4.59 ERA
57% fastballs
by humbucker on Mar 26, 2009 12:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
150 IP, 125 K, 50 BB, 4.25 ERA
60% Fastballs
by RDV across the sea on Mar 31, 2009 4:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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