Andrew McCutchen and Nyjer Morgan: Not the Only Choices
John Perrotto writes that the Pirates will send Andrew McCutchen back to Indianapolis because of concerns about his service time:
Then you throw in the performance of both players this spring, though that comes with the caveat that numbers compiled in exhibition play carry less weight than the regular season and come within an extremely small sample size.
McCutchen has a .255 batting average, a fine .388 on base percentage and a .436 slugging percentage in 67 plate appearances. Morgan’s numbers are .179/.226/.250 in 62 plate appearances...
However, sometimes the obvious decision in baseball isn’t necessarily so obvious. That is the case in the McCutchen/Morgan debate...
The sooner McCutchen makes his major-league debut is the sooner he begins accruing major-league service time, putting him on the road to free agency after six full seasons. Thus, it makes no sense to burn a year of McCutchen in the majors in what almost surely will be a lost season.
That is why Morgan will be the left fielder on April 6 and McCutchen will be at Indianapolis, even if doesn’t seem like the right move to make at first blush.
If McCutchen's service time was the Pirates' only reason for keeping him in Indianapolis, that would be a perfectly valid basis for their decision. There's no need to sacrifice McCutchen's rights in 2015 just to have a bit more fun in the first two months of what will surely be a dreadful 2009 campaign.
But service time isn't the only reason to keep McCutchen at Indianapolis. Perrotto rightly points out some of the flaws in Spring Training stats, but I'll go further: Spring Training stats mean virtually nothing. What matters most, at this point, is how McCutchen did last year, and last year he performed well at Indianapolis but didn't dominate. Let him dominate, and then bring him up. It's far from clear that there's any sort of developmental advantage to be gleaned from bringing a player up before he proves he's absolutely ready.
Also, comparing McCutchen to Nyjer Morgan is understandable but a bit misleading, because it implies that McCutchen and Morgan are the only two choices. Not to pile on, but there are lots of unripe prospects who would look pretty good compared to Morgan. In the meantime, the Pirates could turn to Jeff Salazar, or Steve Pearce, or Eric Hinske, or someone they acquire on the waiver wire or in a trade. (They could also give the playing time to Craig Monroe, but I'm not sure that'd be much better than playing Morgan.)
If we compare McCutchen to a substandard player as if the only option is one or the other, we're likely to make bad decisions. In baseball, these sorts of decisions are rarely binary. It is possible to believe that Morgan is a bad joke and that McCutchen should start the year in the minors.
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"these sorts of decisions are rarely binary."
Are they at least hexadecimal? I’m just not sure how to process this.
Ok, I’ll go back to shutting up now.
by Dignan on Mar 26, 2009 4:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I do not agree with the “of what will surely be a dreadful 2009 campaign” statement, though I do believe Cutch should start in AAA and Nyjer should find his happiness in some other line of work…
by God Loves on Mar 26, 2009 7:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree God Loves (double entendre intended)
After all, we’re tied for the division lead at 0-0. But we need a definition of “dreadful” from Charlie. (e.g., sub .500?, .250?, 0-162?).
by BlassBalls on Mar 26, 2009 9:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If we go into the year...
…with Morgan and Monroe in the OF, then 100 losses is a realistic possibility for the first time in a while. If we push one back to a reserve role and cut the other, while bringing in a decent-quality temp, we’ll be pushing for 70 wins, same as always.
The real action this year is going to be in the low minors, as all the 2008 draftees start to show what they can (and can’t) do.
by Vlad on Mar 26, 2009 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks
for your take, Vlad. Under any of your scenarios, “dreadful” sounds like an accurate description to me. I happen to live in the general vicinity (~90 mis) of 3 minors parks and my calendar is marked to get a look at some of those guys.
by BlassBalls on Mar 26, 2009 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Least Complex Argument
Perotto frames the discussion as an “either-or” because that is the easiest way to generate debate. Casual fans can look at the options presented and make a split-second decision about it; the two names involved are recognizable to the majority of people who follow the Pirates even on an infrequent basis.
By throwing in Jeff Salazar, Craig Monroe and others, the waters get muddied with too many variables for the average fan to process. They don’t know who those players are, as those players are new to the roster, and they are not prepared to discuss them in an kind of detail. Thus frustrated, they engage in no debate because they do not fully understand all of the possibilities for the Pirates outfield.
by Bishop1973 on Mar 26, 2009 9:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The Cutch fanboy in me is obviously dissapointed but it’s clearly the best move to send him down for service time and even to work on maybe being a little more agressive, finding that balance between patience and power.
I’m not so sure Morgan will end up starting. I’ve given up on Pearce or Salazar getting the call, but I still think the FO will give Hinske and Monroe some consideration. To be fair, though, I haven’t been kepping up with Pirates-related press recently.
Hinske would be the best of those 3. If the choice is Monroe or Morgan, I think I’d go with Nyjer. Both will kill the offense but I think Morgan has a significant defensive edge.
by OlStubbleBeard on Mar 26, 2009 9:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Garrett Jones
Why is he never mentioned as a legitimate possibility? He has been crushing the ball and as was mentioned in the Q and A by Dejan
“It is easy to be a Jones fan, Matt, and not just because of his spring showing. He has a pretty good pedigree in the minors, and he was legitimately blocked in Minnesota.”
Why isn’t anyone considering the possibility of him being the poor poor man’s Carlos Quentin or another Brandon Moss type hopeful. By that I mean a guy who can hit and has power but was blocked in another system. Obviously the draft and internationally is where we have to focus but tons of good players have fallen through the cracks of other teams systems before getting to the majors. If there’s a team that could use a little found treasure, or take a look it’s the Pirates He’s not super young, but only 27, which is said to be the age hitters are most likely to put it all together and break out. 6’4" 245, and has pounded the ball all spring while Nyjer has shown nothing at the plate, and tried to force SB’s when he does get on base to try and account for his OBP.
by GTrain on Mar 26, 2009 10:17 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I know it only feels that way....
but it seems as though McCutchen has been a prospect for a long time now,and keeps getting thrown back with some sort of “not quite ready” tag……Starting to wonder if he’ll ever really be that good?
by rissaldar on Mar 26, 2009 2:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Over the hill at 22?
Wasn’t he one of the youngest player in AAA last year?
by WstCstBucco on Mar 26, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
When you draft a kid out of high school...
…it almost never takes less than four years for him to reach the majors. That’s just the way these things work.
by Vlad on Mar 26, 2009 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you're willing to go from "binary" to a triangle
Why not put Garret Jones into the equation? He’s a year younger than Morgan, his minor league stats are far far superior to Morgan’s and he’s had a hell of a spring compared to Morgan’s hellish spring.
Jones go the DK seal of approval today.
It is easy to be a Jones fan, Matt, and not just because of his spring showing. He has a pretty good pedigree in the minors, and he was legitimately blocked in Minnesota.
How many brownie points is Morgan entitled to because of his 115 AB’s in 5 weeks last fall, and his blazing useless speed?
by WstCstBucco on Mar 26, 2009 5:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Q: Why not Jones?
A: His 2009 ZiPS is .254/.304/.427, and he’s probably a legit -20 glove in an outfield corner. Part of the reason that he was blocked in Minnesota is that he just isn’t a very good player.
Nothing against the guy as a person, but we should be trying to do better.
by Vlad on Mar 26, 2009 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's The Clock ... Always The Clock
Absolutely amazing that you guys are worried about the 2015 Pirates and whether McCutchen will be around.
Hey, if the kid can play, bring him up NOW
by thegunner on Mar 27, 2009 1:14 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
thegunner's own words
Will Ohman McCutchen is not going to make any difference in the 2009 Pirates other than adding about $1.5 million to the payroll. using up a year of service time and adding a lot more than $1.5 million to the 2012-14 payrolls..
I love the way that you guys sneeze at $2 million a year of service time for Will Ohman Andrew McCutchen!
by azibuck on Mar 27, 2009 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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