The Rays' Success Was Predictable

by Charlie on Mar 3, 2009 11:24 PM EST Comment 19 comments

The biggest problem I have with writers comparing the Pirates to the '08 Rays is that the comparison makes it seem as if the Rays' success was a complete accident, as if they just stunk for a long time and one year they just randomly didn't stink. That just isn't true. The formula is not

Stinking one year---> Somehow being awesome the next year

Instead, it's

Building, over the course of many years, the best farm system since--what--the early '00s Indians? + trading from remarkable depth of young hitting to radically upgrade the pitching and defense + promoting one of the best prospects in years to be your starting third baseman + several years of intelligent trading = Being awesome

In other words, the Rays' success was a relatively long time coming. It was not primarily the result of randomness, or a sudden infusion of desire. And while they were better than expected this year, only the degree of their success was surprising. Success was a long time in coming, and could've been spotted from a mile away. So when Bob Smizik says something like this:

Sure, the Rays had a boatload of talent ready to blossom, but who exactly was picking them to have a winning season, let alone with the AL East and advance to the World Series?

I must conclude that he knows very little, and not just because he mixes his metaphors. To be fair, Smizik recognizes that it will be several more years before the Pirates might be in the Rays' position, but he still apparently did not read much of anything about baseball last offseason:

-P- PECOTA not only predicted the Rays would win 88 games, but predicted defense would be the reason why.

-P- CHONE predicted the Rays would win 89 games.

-P- Joe Posnanski predicted that the Rays would be contenders deep into the season. He also noted that it was a "pretty trendy prediction."

-P- Joe Sheehan predicted a winning season.

-P- Kevin Goldstein predicted a winning season, or at least a "non-losing season."

-P- Not to compare myself to any of the fine people mentioned above, but I predicted they'd have a winning season, too.

Of course, many mainstream writers missed the boat on the Rays, but those people have no idea what they're talking about. To people who really pay attention, Tampa looked primed for a big step forward. Maybe not an AL title, but a big improvement nonetheless.

The Pirates do not look that way, and it's because there was so little in the organization when Frank Coonelly and Neal Huntingon arrived. It took the Rays many years to build the talent pipeline necessary to fuel their AL-winning team. The Pirates are still building their pipeline. One day, it'll be built, and the Nate Silvers and Joe Posnanskis of the world will correctly predict that the Pirates will have a winning season. (Of course, Bob Smizik and Steve Phillips will probably miss the boat on that one, too.) This time around, nobody in their right mind is predicting a winning season for the Pirates.

Which is as it should be. If the Pirates don't win in 2009, it won't be because they didn't want it enough, or because they were unlucky. It'll be because they just aren't that good yet. Coonelly and Huntington need more time. Anyone in their positions would.

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I hate to defend Smizik but

I feel that was one of his better columns. He almost seemed to admit in his own bizarre way that Pirates management is on the right path and has a plan to succeed in the long-term way that the Rays did.

Sure he is wrong that no one predicted that the Rays would be good but when Smizik (kind of) admits that good times are around the bend I feel more optimistic than ever about the long term success of the club since even he can see the long term plan of current management.

I made most of my life decisions at a Foghat concert... I stand by them.

by Chester J Lampwick on Mar 3, 2009 11:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Smizik

What a moron. I read his “work” from the time I moved to Pgh until I could no longer stomach it at all. I’ve lived here since ‘91, and haven’t read more than a half dozen of his articles since ’96. Before ’96 my habit of reading the paper front to back daily caused me to tolerate all of his crap. Why is it this city can be home to tremendous talents calling games (Mike Lang, the late great Myron Cope), but those who have time to gather their thoughts and insights before reporting the sports are so talentless (Smizik, Ron Cook, Mark Madden).

by Jake B on Mar 4, 2009 5:14 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

The Post-Gazette columnists have been nearly worthless for more than a decade. Their ineptitude and two-columns-a-week production are big reasons why so many Pittsburgh sports blogs have taken root. Thank goodness for Bucs Dugout.

by Alleghenys on Mar 4, 2009 9:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

But let’s not pretend that losing for a number of years wasn’t an integral part of the Rays’ success… David Price, Evan Longoria, BJ Upton and Delmon Young weren’t exactly hidden gems that the Rays unearthed… I’m still not sure why losing 115 games would be bad for the 2009 or 2010 Pirates…

by Captain Easychord on Mar 4, 2009 7:25 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Rent Manny

What do you think of my unconventional tactic to rent Manny till July:

http://burgherjon.blogspot.com/2009/03/just-crazy-enough-to-work.html

by Burgher Jon on Mar 4, 2009 9:12 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Overlooking the fact that he's apparently about to sign with LA...

…I think it’s a huge risk to run. In order to get rid of Manny last year for an equivalent player, the Red Sox had to pay his whole salary AND kick in some prospects. If he acted up, we could end up getting stuck with him, and having to dump guys like Maholm and Snell and Nate to make payroll in 2010 and 2011.

by Vlad on Mar 4, 2009 10:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

True, but the Pirates have been losers and...

…they’ve only started to grasp the concept of drafting the non-“hidden gems”, as you put it; for years, they took players based on signability, not talent. They could have had BJ Upton but went with Brian Bullington instead, who was released by the Blue Jays yesterday. They took Brad Lincoln, a kid who a number of experts predicted would eventually have an arm injury due to his heavy workload in college, instead of Clayton Kershaw, Joba Chamberlain and Tim Lincecum, who just happened to win a Cy Young last year.

Fact is, the Pirates should be where the Devil Rays and Marlins, to a lesser extent, are right now. They’ve had numerous high draft picks and have wasted the majority on them. While losing 115 games this year wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world, because the public is already against them and backlash would probably be minimal, they’ve squandered too many opportunities to be in a position to win due to poor management and have put themselves behind the curve in regards to embracing what they should have all along: build from within and let the big-money teams worry about free agents.

by Bishop1973 on Mar 4, 2009 9:15 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

IIRC...

…most of these “experts” didn’t talk about Lincoln as an arm injury wating to happen until he’d already gotten hurt. I went back and looked after the fact, and didn’t come up with any glaring red flags hoisted by credible experts. In his case, it’s just an example of bad luck.

If anything, Chamberlain and Lincecum were seen as significantly bigger injury risks than Lincoln at the time of the draft: Lincecum because of his highly unorthodox mechanics, and Chamberlain because he had a bum shoulder at the time of the draft (which turned out to just be tendinitis, IIRC), as well as a history of weight problems and knee issues. And Brandon Morrow, another highly-regarded arm in that draft, was viewed as suspect because of his diabetes.

by Vlad on Mar 4, 2009 10:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Just to prove I'm not full of it...

…<a href=“http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/draft/features/261389.html”here‘s the link to BA’s capsule profiles for their top 200 draft prospects from 2006 (subscribers only), sorry. Nothing in Lincoln’s (#3) profile about him being an injury risk, though they mention Lincecum’s unusual delivery, Joba’s health issues, and Morrow’s diabetes.

by Vlad on Mar 4, 2009 10:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Left my tag open.

Here’s that link.

by Vlad on Mar 4, 2009 10:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Really??

I ask you, what kind of credibility can I give to a person who leaves his tags open? :)

Seriously, I appreciate your diligence on this and setting the record straight. My memory of the facts was apparently a little off, although in my feeble defense, I cannot access all of my usual points of reference while I am at work.

My main point, beyond completely blowing the Lincoln situation, is that the Pirates have done a dreadful job of drafting, whether by picking the wrong guys (Bullington, Moskos) or having the worst luck in history when it comes to pitchers and injuries (Bradley, Burnett, JVB, Bullington, Lincoln). I just can’t fathom how a team with so many high draft picks could consistently miss on getting studs into the system.

by Bishop1973 on Mar 4, 2009 11:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You're right about our terrible drafting.

I was just picking a few nits because I think that in analysis it’s important to separate the picks that were terrible ideas from the get-go (Clint Johnston, JVB-as-pitcher, Dan Moskos) from the picks where bad luck played a role, since it’s a lot easier to get better luck than it is to get smarter.

by Vlad on Mar 4, 2009 11:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Flip Side

I look at it from the other standpoint, that it is easier to get smarter than to get luckier. A team can get smarter by changing management teams, changing drafting philosophy (not drafting high school pitchers due to future development risks, or taking the best playing available regardless of position, for example), using different rating metrics (more Sabrmetrics vs. good ol’ fashioned scouting) or looking for value in oddball places (South Africa, India).

Bad luck is what it is. It is going to happen in most cases no matter what is done to avoid it.

by Bishop1973 on Mar 4, 2009 11:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The fact remains:

“That is why they play the game”. It certainly is highly unlikely for the Pirates to contend this year, but I’m not going to let sabermetrics dull my enthusiam. Not defending Smizik (didn’t even read the column), but I certainly impressed with either Kerrigan and his work with the pitchers, or the maturation of the pitching on their own.

We all know that a vast majority of the time pitchers struggle after an impressive start to their careers. And I will jump out and predict that the Rays WILL NOT have a winning season this year.

Sorry for the ramble, and I know what I’ve written is slightly off subject, but don’t tell me it can’t happen…

by God Loves on Mar 4, 2009 11:36 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Articles like that...

from the “mainstream” media about the Pirates seem like just another shine-job on the long-suffering fans.

by rissaldar on Mar 4, 2009 2:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Prediction:

Pirates will win the World Series over the Orioles 4 games to 2.

Signed,
Creed Bratton.

by IAPiratesFan on Mar 4, 2009 3:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

That game would have to end with

Moskos striking out Wieters!

by Isotopes on Mar 4, 2009 4:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Is it obnoxious to pile on?

I’m SMRT, too, although I didn’t nail the exactly path to success.

Regardless of what Smizek wrote (I didn’t read it), the view that the Rays were totally surprising and came out of nowhere is extremely prevalent and extremely false.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Mar 4, 2009 6:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs