2009 Pirate Props

by azibuck on Apr 2, 2009 5:12 PM EDT Comment 13 comments

For entertainment purposes only, though I'd love to book a couple of these.

The poll question stemmed from a wager I offered Vlad, that Garrett Jones would out-OPS Pearce in Indy. I figured I'd throw Walker in there too, to see if there were any believers (or other non-believers in Pearce I suppose).

Bonus questions because I find the subjects interesting and because I sense some people think one option is a slam dunk:

What will Andrew McCutchen OPS at Indy in 2009?

.850 or higher
.849 or lower

Daniel McCutchen's HR rate in 2009 will be:

1.30/9IP or higher (worse)
1.20/9IP or lower

The difference between Tom Gorzelanny's AAA and MLB ERA will be (no minimum IP):

greater than 3.50
less than 2.50

My own answers are .849 or lower, but I'd love to be wrong. No real reason, and I'm not down on ACutch, he just hasn't dominated yet. If he goes over, I'll bet it's due to a spike in power. His bat speed is no joke.

The DCutch question is from another discussion with Vlad, and I think he will serve up a lot of gopher balls, so I'll take 1.30 or higher.

Based on a feeling as much as his performance, I think Gorzelanny will cement quad-A status with a terrific AAA ERA, and an abysmal MLB one, so greater than 3.50. I think he needs to remake himself, and he could, but I'll bet it's not soon, and it'll be with another org. He's got the stuff to routinely beat minor leaguers, but his fastball has lost the zip to be able to just throw it in the bigs. He's got to (warning, cliche alert) work on his craftiness, and accept becoming a groundballer that relies more on his offspeed stuff.

Poll

OPS, highest to lowest, for Indianapolis in 2009 (minimum 200 PA each):

Steven Pearce, Garrett Jones, Neil Walker

27 votes

Steven Pearce, Neil Walker, Garrett Jones

29 votes

Garrett Jones, Steven Pearce, Neil Walker

40 votes

Garrett Jones, Neil Walker, Steven Pearce

26 votes

Neil Walker, Steven Pearce, Garrett Jones

15 votes

Neil Walker, Garrett Jones, Steven Pearce

13 votes

150 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

My guesses:

1) Under, low .800s.
2) Over, but not by all that much.
3) No way to answer – I don’t think he’s going to get enough ML innings to have a predictable ERA.

by Vlad on Apr 2, 2009 5:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I also think...

…that the area between 1.20 and 1.30 is a lot of real estate to be leaving open for McCutchen’s HR/9. Very good chance you get a push on that one.

Fun is fun, but I’d never bet any of this stuff IRL. Too much variance.

by Vlad on Apr 2, 2009 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Really?

I admit to using round numbers for simplicity, but my thought was that he’s going to give up 25 dingers, easy. If he pitched 180 innings this year, the over means 26 or more, the under 24 or less. If he became a reliever quickly, I could see the the number getting skewed, but I think he’ll start the whole year and a push will be unlikely.

I have to admit I’m already surprised. I thought Pearce would get a lot more love in the poll.

by azibuck on Apr 2, 2009 9:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Right now, people love Jones because he hit well in ST.

They’re mostly forgetting about his entire career up until now.

by Vlad on Apr 3, 2009 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No Neil Walker love,

but maybe that was predictable. I went Walker, Pearce, Jones.

by DITO on Apr 4, 2009 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

unfair

I find these questions to be unfair, not for the players in question, but for the fact that I will always take the more optimistic option of the choices. I am an unashamed, hopelessly optimistic pirates fan, and probably will be till the day I die. Thus, being realistic in answering questions involving the Pirates is psychologically impossible for me. It’s similar to the Chappelle Show skit in which Dave was unable to testify against a black defendant due to his own blackness.

by OpiateOfTheMasses on Apr 2, 2009 6:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

McCutchen

I was absolutely blown away by his bat speed when I saw him in person last year. When he stepped up to the plate, i was honestly kind of surprised by how small he was. Then he swung the bat, and I suddenly saw what I assume the scouts see in him.

I’ll take the over on him in AAA. I think this is his breakout year. Push on Dan McCutchen (between 1.20 and 1.30), and NA on Gorzo, who never makes it back to Pittsburgh.

http://www.whygavs.com
http://mlb.fanhouse.com

by whygavs on Apr 2, 2009 7:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Andrew McCutchen is going to be a very nice ballplayer ...

but he is never going to “dominate” or be a huge impact player.

by thegunner on Apr 2, 2009 8:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

if by impact player you mean hit 40 home runs and drive in 130 from the cleanup spot, then no he won’t. what he could do someday if he reaches his full potential (no guarantee of course) is hit 20 homeruns, steal 40 bases while putting up, say, an obp of .400 batting leadoff and win a gold glove in center field. that’s not a nice ball player, that’s very much an impact player.

he’ll never be manny ramirez with the bat but he could certainly be kenny lofton on the bases, in the field and with the bat but with more power. if you’re saying he won’t be that, then i can understand.

by johnnycuff on Apr 2, 2009 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If McCutchen Can One Day Be Compared To Kenny Lofton...

…I’ll be a very happy man.

I hope that you are right.

by thegunner on Apr 3, 2009 12:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

maybe someday

that’s one thing we definitely agree on.

by johnnycuff on Apr 3, 2009 1:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

In His Prime, I Would Consider Kenny Lofton An Impact Player

He could do so many things and he could really change the game’s outcome in so many ways.

by thegunner on Apr 3, 2009 12:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The low-end projections I've seen for McCutchen...

…are along the lines of Marquis Grissom. Grissom wasn’t exactly what I’d call an impact player, but he was still good enough to make two All-Star games and win four Gold Gloves, which isn’t bad as downsides go. If he develops the way we hope and he can upgrade from Grissom to Lofton (or Raines), so much the better.

by Vlad on Apr 3, 2009 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs