Pirates' Defense Deserves Credit
by Charlie Wilmoth on Apr 30, 2009 9:00 PM EDT
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PrintHere's a good article by Buster Olney about what's different about the Pirates this year:
It's not a coincidence that a handful of teams decided in the offseason to improve their respective defenses. For example, the Pittsburgh Pirates replaced Jason Bay with Nyjer Morgan and hired infield coach Perry Hill to work with the likes of Andy LaRoche and Freddy Sanchez. The Mariners traded for the underrated Franklin Gutierrez and Endy Chavez and now might have the best defensive outfield in baseball. And the Texas Rangers installed Elvis Andrus at shortstop and moved Michael Young to third.
Those three teams have improved their defense, and their place in the standings. The Pirates rank No. 1 in the Baseball Prospectus defensive efficiency ratings:
1. Pirates 0.738
2. Dodgers .727
3. Blue Jays .718
4. Athletics .708
5. Mariners .706
18. Rangers .687Compare that with the final 2008 rankings:
1. Rays 0.710
2. Cubs 0.705
3. Blue Jays 0.704
4. Athletics 0.700
5. Red Sox 0.699
26. Mariners .682
28. Pirates 0.675
30. Rangers 0.670If there a lesson to be learned, it might be this: The fastest route to improvement might not the addition of a big home-run hitter or a high-profile, free-agent pitcher. Rather, the best road to improvement might be to commit a team to better defense.
The pitching this season has been much improved, but not nearly as much as the change in team ERA (from 28th in the majors in 2008 to first in 2009) suggests. Actually, the change in ERA correlates very strongly with the change in defensive efficiency, which measures what percentage of batted balls a team's defense as a whole turns into outs. For several years before this one, the Pirates were terrible at this; this year, they've been downright great.
The question is whether the defense can keep this up. The Bucs are returning five starting position players from last year, plus two more guys in Andy LaRoche and Brandon Moss who started most of the time in August and September, so it's likely that the defense will slide down the rankings a bit as the year goes on, and the Bucs' ERA will slide down the rankings with it.
Still, there's something here--the infield has looked much better than last year, particularly since the first few games, when Andy LaRoche couldn't be depended upon to make even the most basic plays. Freddy Sanchez has looked much better than he did in 2008 and, first few games aside, Andy has probably been an improvement over Jose Bautista, who always looked good out there but was, at least by advanced statistical metrics, a pretty poor defensive third baseman.
The outfield defense has been very good, too. I'm still not a believer in Nyjer Morgan's hitting, but I have to hand it to him--in the field this year, he's looked like a real baseball player and not merely a really fast guy. In 2007, Morgan showed great range, but he ran poor routes--he'd run off in one direction and then dart off a different way, often taking a sort of banana-shaped route to the ball. When a ball was hit his way you were never sure whether he was going to look like Willie Mays, or Billy from Family Circus. Because of Morgan's age, the number of years he'd spent in the minors, and the fact that he looked like he'd never received a day of instruction in his life, I assumed there was no hope for him--that he'd never be more than just a fast guy.
Judging from the Pirates' first month of baseball, I was wrong. He takes better routes and is much more sure-handed now. Also, he seems to be better suited to left field, where (I wonder if) the boundary of the foul line to his right helps him orient himself. Last year, Jason Bay galloped to the gap like a Shetland with laminitis, so Morgan probably would have been an improvement no matter what, but I'm surprised by how big that improvement has been. In any case, it's high time I showed Morgan some respect. I'm still extremely skeptical of him as a starter because I think the hitting will tail off a great deal, but if he's going to play defense this well he should at least be able to carve out a decent career as a bench outfielder.
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Wow, the Pirates aren’t light years behind on improving defense? I’m stunned.
Like the major deal about strikeouts, if you get ground balls and the defense plays good, forget the SOs.
Nyjer’s defense should keep him a starter even if he drops to around .270. Unless we have someone else who can bring Nyjer’s defense.
It’s sad to me how far Bay dropped off defensively. Maybe it was a morale thing.
Sure he can score goals, but can he cook?
I’m pretty sure Bay’s injuries are to blame. I don’t think it’s a question of effort.
by Charlie Wilmoth on May 1, 2009 2:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Bay was completely ill-suited to play leftfield at PNC Park, where they truly need a second centerfielder-type to cover all that ground. In an ideal situation, they would have moved Bay to RF, but he has an arm like my three-year-old daughter, making him a huge liability over there as well.
Don’t get me wrong, I wasn’t happy to see him go (although I completely understand why they made the move and support that), but Morgan has provided better defense and has, to date, been effective in getting on base and creating some offense.
Bay had a candy arm...
… and he more than made up for it with production at the plate.
Our current and future outfield options are a mess. Morgan doesn’t have the sort of power you expect for a corner outfielder. McLouth is an above-average producer from centerfielder, and probably just average as a leftfielder should he have to move for McCutchen. Rightfield should be somewhere we plunk a 25+ HR slugger who doesn’t fit anywhere else, but we don’t have anyone who fits that profile.
As such, we have a solid defensive outfield that struggles when it comes to SLG. For as much as had been made about Nyjer’s “fast start,” his OPS stands at just .745 right now, and has been in hovering around .800 since April 20. The best thing about his season thus far has been his great OBP at the top of the order. His current .307/.370 AVG/OBP, sustained over an entire season, would be utterly remarkable for the Pirates leadoff hitter.
The problem is what to do about the outfield once Andrew McCutchen arrives. An ideal outfield, given production thus far, would be Andrew in center, Nate in left and Nyjer in right. But realistically, Nyjer and Andrew profile similarly when it comes to offense. That otufield might work for a while, but I don’t love it for 2010.
Moss needs to get it going, or else we’ll be looking at another hodge podge of Hinkes and Morgans next year to add pop to an otherwise SLG-less outfield.
But to the original point, yes, the defense has been a whole lot better, and credit should definitely go to the infield, of which 75% are likely-to-very-likely not with us in 2010.
LEAVE NATE MCLOUTH ALONE!
If by “average left fielder” you mean “average good left fielder” then yea Nate’s average. A good left fielder gives you 270- 300 with 20 -25 HR’s But how many left fielders have 20-25 SB’s in them? Especially on a team with guys like Freddy and Nyjer, the way he works a count and draws walks is a big asset.
This giant tangent isn’t pointed so much at you, but just the general bashing of Nate, specifically by stats guys. I’m tired of all the Nate bashing about how his defense doesn’t fit in center but he doesn’t have the offense for a corner. The guy who won a Gold Glove in CF Maybe he didn’t deserve it but everyone who voted seemed to think otherwise, and he should at least hold his own in left yes? Especially if he’s playing alongside Cutch. If you called any team and asked them if they’d like their left fielder to play + defense, be a 20/20 guy with 25/25 potential and put up .276/.356/.497/.853 I think you’d get a big yes please. While his AVG and Slugging are down slightly to start this year, his OBP and OPS are up. He’s already drawn over 1/6 as many walks (12) in 15 games as he did all last year (65). Considering his base stealing ability and success rate (47/ 51) he’s always a threat to turn one of those walks into a double. Baseball is full of guys who never should’ve made it because they were too small, too slow, or didn’t throw hard enough. You could build a hall of fame team of guys like Lenny Dykstra, Dustin Pedroia, Greg Maddux, etc. Unlike Dykstra, Nate isn’t a scumbag, in fact by all accounts he’s a great guy, teammate and fan favorite. If you don’t think it’s important that fans love him, imagine disenchanting the 9000 people still coming to games. At the very least, I think people should hold off criticizing the guy until he isn’t the best player on the team. I think everyone saw how much we missed his bat in Milwaukee.
McLouth is The Trouth
Whoa...
I hear ya, bud. And you’re preaching to the choir. I’m a big fan of Nate McLouth. And by “average in left field” I think I meant just what you described. Probably toward the top of the middle of the pack. Does he belong in the same company with Manny Ramirez? Matt Holliday? Carlos Lee? Huge run producers? I don’t think so, as he just doesn’t profile to me as a prototypical #3 hitter. He’d be much better as a #2 hitter behind McCutchen… that is, if we had ANYBODY else except Doumit SLG longterm.
But I’m no Nate hater! He’s an exciting player, and I’m really glad he’s on the team. I can certainly live with Nate in left and McCutch in CF… provided we have someone at 1B, 3B and/or C driving in runs.
Like I said, didn’t mean to direct all that at you really. Totally agree he’d be better hitting 2 (or even leadoff, where I like him) but the situation requires him in the middle of the lineup. And no I don;t think he’s up there with those guys in LF. We’ll need a slugger in right someday. Hopefully Tabata. But I’d take Nate over Ben Francisco/ Trevor Crowe, Matsui, etc any day
McLouth is The Trouth
25 HR
95 RBI despite hitting in a lineup with a poor on-base percentage is not enough production from a 3-hole hitter for you?
Jason
The Hanging Curve
Well...
sure, but you’re basing a whole lot on one year single year… a year in which he took a bulk of his PAs from the leadoff spot. I’m new to this blog, so pardon me if this was a meltdown topic on here once upon a time, but go check out the splits on Nate batting leadoff (379 PA) and batting third (234) in 2008 – .895 vs. .746 OPS. Some of that is attributable to Nady and bay no longer being in the lineup, but his SLG went waaay down when he was dropped in the order.
Ultimately, we don’t really know how he’ll perform going forward, so telling em about his 94 RBIs in 2008 doesn’t really sway me. But if you are going to hold that up, perhaps you should run the splits so you know how he achieved them.
The fact that he had as many RBIs as he did from the leadoff position is astounding. I echo the thoughts of another poster here – I love him as a leadoff or #2 batter. That’s just how he projects. A #3 hitter he may not be.
UZR winners and losers so far
Winners
-Nyjer Morgan 3.7 in LF, 1.6 in CF (UZR likes his range and loves his arm)
-Brandon Moss 2.8 in RF (again UZR loves his arm so far)
Losers
-Ramon Vazquez -0.8 at 3B, -0.7 at SS (In only 8 starts between the 2 positions, UZR thinks Ramon has sure hands but the range of a Walrus.)
-Nate McLouth -3.6 in CF (This is all range. No news here. UZR is full of Nate-hate.)
Of course it’s probably too early for UZR. I know this because Raul Ibanez is sporting a +2.5 UZR
Nate Silver was on BB Tonight last week talking up the same point. Sadly, Bucs have little room to slide on this front, since they can’t cruise on strikeout pitching and they’re not built to slug it out.
It’s interesting to see this shift from the Beer League like teams like th late 90s A’s. It wasn’t that long ago that not making outs on offense was heavily valued, and now it seems like the emphasis on putouts on D has increased. Of course Ks are the easiest putout for defenses.
this is the essence of moneyball
which so many claim to understand – to find the undervalued quantity of a winning team. right now, with everyone (finally) understanding the value of OPS the new undervalued quantity is defense, mostly because most statistical defensive measures are at least somewhat suspect. the rays provided a clear example last year and bravo to the bucs for following suit, even if their solution was mostly internal (nyjer, and to a lesser extend andy laroche and perhaps even vazquez).
Well, surely the defense hasn’t improved as much as it’s appeared so far. A lot of the players out there were parts of the bad defense last year. But chico is right—it may still be relatively easy and inexpensive to patch up a defense and that helps a lot, but ultimately you still need good pitching and hitting to have a really good team, and the Pirates still don’t really have either of those things.
by Charlie Wilmoth on May 1, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions
They did get rid of some of the worst parts...
…of last year’s defense. Bautista (a -11 at 3B for his career per UZR), Rivas, Gomez, and Bay. The decrepit, injured version of Freddy. And, of course, Joggin’ Ronny.
defense wins championships
I'll drink your Milkshake, I'll drink it up!
by Frank Mineo (DYMS) on May 1, 2009 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
DERRICK TURNBOW!
He’s the ultimate Hunnington power arm with no control! And I can yell “You’re a monkey Derrick!” every time he walks someone
McLouth is The Trouth
Ratios are important
By my calculations, which I’m keeping a secret, the improvement is 91.4% pitching, and the other half defense.
Nyjer has probably helped Duke, but not nearly as much as Duke has helped himself. He’s BB’d fewer, K’d more, his HR/FB and IF/FB (also defense-independent) are all much improved. The other pitchers (except Snell) have similar improvements in defense-independent categories. Ohlendorf’s LD% is way down, Maholm’s IF/FB% is way up. I CAN’T PROVE IT, but this happens when hitters are kept off balance.
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