Smizik: Avoid Sano

by Charlie Wilmoth on May 18, 2009 2:19 PM EDT

In an era when the most sophisticated scouting by the National Football League cannot accurately predict the success of 22 and 23-year-old men and when the best talent evaluators in Major League Baseball miss way too often on college, let along high-school age, players, it makes no sense -- none -- to spend millions on a sophomore in high school.

Leaving aside the question of whether a sportswriter who consistently misses the boat on just about everything has any business questioning "talent evaluators," the problem here is that the Pirates don't need to be certain that Sano will play in the big leagues for him to be a good investment. If they did, no one would ever sign draft picks or Latin American amateurs. Or veterans. No investment in the future is certain.

The issue is the chance that he'll be successful. If the Pirates pay Sano $4 million, it is certainly true that he could discover American food and gain 100 pounds, or never adjust to American culture, or simply never get better, and if any of those things happened the Pirates would get nothing for that $4 million. But the Bucs have to weigh that possibility against the chance that Sano will become a star in the majors, in which case they'll be able to pay him far below market value for six years. If that happened, the Pirates would get as much as a tenfold return on their initial investment of $4 million.

Smizik is obviously right that the Pirates should be cautious here. But this is the same person who argued last year that Xavier Nady should be given an extension, presumably for far more than $4 million. His risk-reward calibrator is obviously way out of whack. Veterans aren't automatically safe bets, and risky bets aren't automatically bad ones.

* * *

Very busy week for me. I'll be updating more starting tomorrow.

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i loved the news of Smizik going into retirement. Then he gets blog, and the garbage is spewing from his direction twice as much.

He does a great job of talking about past draft woes of the pirates, as if the same management team is still in place….

by jsn4219 on May 18, 2009 2:48 PM EDT reply actions

I was going to write something about his blog entry

But decided it wasn’t worth it because everyone knows he’s always full of crap anyways.

I don’t know if I’ve even see something written with more nonsensical remarks. I don’t know if he actually put any thought into that article, because the stuff he says in it is just plain stupid.

North Side Notch

by northsidenotch on May 18, 2009 3:10 PM EDT reply actions

Alright...Alright...

I saw his post yesterdday and was gonna do a fan post on it but I thought that no one really takes him seriously anyway. His main argument is that the money would be better spent on the draft but I have two problems with that: 1) is this really robbing Peter to pay Paul – won’t we still have enough for the draft? and 2) there are a lack of high impact prospects so Sano may be the equivalent to a #1 pick. The best position prospect in Ackley is almost assuredly going to be gone by the time we pick so the Sano investment could be even more important in that regard.

by Slick1 on May 18, 2009 3:13 PM EDT reply actions

His main argument is that the money would be better spent on the draft . . . there are a lack of high impact prospects so Sano may be the equivalent to a #1 pick.

Dejan made this point in his chat today — The Pirates’ believe there’s nobody in this draft who has anywhere close to Sano’s ceiling.

Besides, the top players who are likely to be available to the Pirates in the draft are all college pitchers. If you look at their track record in the last 10-15 years, top picks from the college pitching ranks are probably far more risky than 16-year-old Dominican kids.

by WTM on May 18, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Slightly off topic

I saw Sugar this weekend and it obviously reminded me of the Sano situation. I recommend it to all, it’s a little slow at times but it really makes you think about deeper about what these Latin America players go through.

Sugar trailer

The Ralphie Report - University of Colorado Athletics

by Jon Woods on May 18, 2009 3:17 PM EDT reply actions

Yep.

I saw that yesterday and my head just about spun off when he said that paying $4 million for Sano was a Dave Littlefield type move. I just want him to point out the Sano-esque type player in the Pirates minor league system that DL signed for maybe a little too much money in the hopes that he’ll eventually be a star and be worth much more than the $4 million initial investment.

So I’m not entirely sure what Smizik really wants out of a Pirates front office. He’s spent a lot of time complaining about them not spending money (on guys like Bay and Nady long term) but doesn’t seem to want them to spend money on risky draft picks and international signings. Then he says that they should follow the Marlins model of drafting, international scouting and player development. Then he writes in a blog that signing expensive free agents weren’t gonna help this year. So I have no idea what he’s looking for the Pirates to do.

However, I’m guessing he wants the team to retain aging veterans and over pay for them while not spending too much or picking risky players in the draft or on the international market. So, he wants Dave Littlefield back?

by IAPiratesFan on May 18, 2009 3:27 PM EDT reply actions

Littlefield preferred to blow $$$ on overage fake prospects like Yoslan Herrera.

by WTM on May 18, 2009 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Please --- Go Easy On Yoslan

by thegunner on May 18, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah go easy on him

because the hitters sure aren’t

by johnnycuff on May 18, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions

To be fair

Yoslan is the best 28-year-old, soft-tossing, Cuban defector batting practice pitcher in the Pirates’ farm system, bar none.

by WTM on May 18, 2009 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Haha

North Side Notch

by northsidenotch on May 18, 2009 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Smizik wants...

…opportunities to complain about stuff. He doesn’t care whether moves are good or not, just whether they can be exploited for column inches.

This made him a “useful idiot” for a while when Littlefield was in charge and there were plenty of legitimate things to complain about, but these days it’s almost entirely counterproductive.

by Vlad on May 18, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Good point.

I was wondering if he just wanted a reason to complain. But I thought maybe there was some grand plan that he had hiding in his writing. Like he has a better way to fix the Pirates than what they’re doing now. On the other hand I can see his blog in some distant day in the future:

Pirates World Series Win just ploy to raise ticket prices.

by IAPiratesFan on May 18, 2009 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Sano

Smizik should have worked for Littlefield. If we build a 5 million dollar facility, and don’t use it to sign anyone, what was the point of building it? Neil Huntington will sign this kid, or at least bid for him.

Smizik needs to learn about this thing called “minor league baseball”. In his career, it might be helpful.

by H2O on May 18, 2009 3:28 PM EDT reply actions

Smart Money Says to Paying Sano:

Nobody bats an eye over giving some FA $4 million to play for just one year so why not invest that same amount in a young kid who could give us years of service? Even if he doesn’t pan out we have still made a statement that we will seriously look at the local talent and that should send a message that the Pirates are serious investors in the Latin community. I say pay the kid the money and take a chance. Just imagine how terrible we would feel if we didn’t sign him and he became the next A-Rod?

by Illinois Pirate Fan on May 18, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions

We gave $4 million to Ramon Vazquez to play for us for 2 years. If we sign this kid for $4 million…we will get more out him than what we will get from Vazquez…and that’s if Sano doesn’t even make the majors.

North Side Notch

by northsidenotch on May 18, 2009 4:04 PM EDT reply actions

Betancourt Rumor

Via MLB Trade Rumors, a Seattle paper reports Jack for Yuniesky talks.

Good day.

by Uncle Nate on May 18, 2009 4:29 PM EDT reply actions

Basically

Jack for four years younger Jack who fields a little below average but hits a little bit better than Jack. Pretty much a wash but you may lose a couple runs because defensively the net Rtot/yr difference is about 10 and I don’t think his hitting is 10 runs better than Jack. However, you do get a younger player, probably for cheaper.

Jason
The Hanging Curve

by poorboywilly on May 18, 2009 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Per UZR...

…we’re probably talking about a 20-30 run difference in defensive talent between Jack and Yuniesky per 150 games, assuming that Yuniesky remains at his 2008 level of performance, rather than recovering to his 2006-2007 level (FWIW, his numbers thus far in 2008 are much, much worse than the ones from 2007).

by Vlad on May 18, 2009 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions

The bottom line for me is pretty simple. If the Pirates want to spend $4M of Bob Nutting’s money on a guy who has somewhere between a .00001% and 30% chance of turning into a mini-Pujols or whatever, why should I care? Just so it doesn’t keep them from signing any above-slot guys in the draft. They can recoup someof the money later by not offering arbitration to Tyler Yates.

by WTM on May 18, 2009 4:32 PM EDT reply actions

More transactions

Bucs claim Yankee reliever Steven Jackson off waivers, release Barthmaier.

by WTM on May 18, 2009 5:06 PM EDT reply actions

Jackson

Stats here, a fairly recent scouting report here. He apparently made big strides in 2008, with the split and the slider. I’ve seen him compared to Ohlendorf a couple of times, which is interesting.

They might be thinking of him as a possible long man for this year’s pen, or just as more system depth.

Kind of sad about Barthmaier. Maybe they have a handshake deal in place to re-sign him to a minor-league contract, or they plan to revisit the situation once he’s a little further into his rehab?

by Vlad on May 18, 2009 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Jackson sounds like he could be marginally useful, but why couldn’t they just put Barthmaier on the 60-day DL if they needed roster space?

by shayborg on May 18, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions

They could have.

For whatever reason, they chose not to do that.

by Vlad on May 18, 2009 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions

According to Dejan’s post on the PBC Blog from a few weeks ago, they were planning on putting him on the 60-day to open a spot. Maybe he asked to be released.

by shayborg on May 18, 2009 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Wouldn’t he still get paid by the PBC if he’s on the 60 day DL?

Released, he’s living off his unemployment check. No one’s going to hire him until next year at the earliest, since he just had Tommy John surgery.

by WstCstBucco on May 18, 2009 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions

I expect he’ll be added to the ML roster when they send Gorzo back down.

by WTM on May 18, 2009 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions

According the link above, Jackson is a 6’ 5" sinkerball/splitter pitcher, who last year exceeded 1K/IP. That sounds excellent to me.

BTW, ever notice that there is a s***load more info on Yankee prospects than there is for PBC prospects?

And is Huntington trying to corner the market on 25-27 YO ex-Yankee prospects?

by WstCstBucco on May 18, 2009 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions

I approve of this product or service

Maybe Kerrigan is getting NH to shift from wild powerballers to tall sinkerballers.

by azibuck on May 18, 2009 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions

More Minor Moves

According to the Altoona Mirror – Brad Corley is on his way out. We shall see who they get back.

http://www.altoonamirror.com/page/content.detail/id/519154.html?nav=727

by Morty on May 18, 2009 5:31 PM EDT reply actions

Huh.

From what you said, I guessed that he might be one of the PsTBNL in the deals with Boston/Cleveland, but the article seems to indicate that he’s not.

I doubt the return will be very high. It mostly seems like they’re trying to do him a favor by finding him a starter’s PT somewhere else, now that he’s out of their plans.

by Vlad on May 18, 2009 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Most likely PTBNL or cash considerations.

by WTM on May 18, 2009 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Agreed

Probably right. I just find it interesting that the Pirates are making all these moves right now. Not that the Corley is tearing it up or anything like that, it just seems like a weird point in the season to make all these changes.

by Morty on May 18, 2009 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Altoona is 12-24

I like that Huntington and Stark aren’t afraid to restock the Curve, even though the season is only 1/4 over.

by WstCstBucco on May 18, 2009 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions

This has probably been coming for a while with Corley.

He’s never lived up to his tools, and probably never will.

by Vlad on May 18, 2009 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions

http://community.post-gazette.com/blogs/pbc/default.aspx

Another minor league pickup.

by Suffering Buc on May 18, 2009 5:41 PM EDT reply actions

DiscomBobulated Smizik

is off his rocker as usual.

As someone else mentioned, I’d thought we’d seen the last of crusty ol’ Bob at the end of last year, but it seems like he’s going to hang around a while longer on his blog.

On another note, I would be fine if the Pirates spent as much on the draft as they did last year, plus millions more on international signings. Let’s build the strongest organization possible for years to come.

by patthatt on May 18, 2009 5:48 PM EDT reply actions