Andrew McCutchen: It's Time
by Charlie Wilmoth on May 27, 2009 11:25 PM EDT
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Photo: Trev Stair
Enough waiting--I'm ready to see Andrew McCutchen as the Pirates' starting centerfielder. McCutchen went 3-for-4 today against Gwinnett, with a homer and a double, both of which he hit against a pitcher the Pirates faced earlier this year (Jordan Parr). McCutchen now has an .841 OPS at Class AAA Indianapolis and has been solid in every phase of the game: hitting for average (.293), hitting for power (a .489 slugging percentage, which is great for his age and league), baserunning (he has ten steals and has only been caught twice), defense (he's always been very highly regarded). His .353 on-base percentage is the weakest stat on his line, and even that isn't bad, and OBP has been a strength throughout his career.
The only trait McCutchen lacks right now is home run power, and keeping him at Indianapolis is unlikely to help much with that. He probably just needs to grow into his body a bit more, and his excellent control of the strike zone (he has fifteen walks against eighteen strikeouts so far) and extra-base hits (he has nine doubles and a remarkable eight triples) suggest he'll hit more homers as he ages.
We've also reached the point in the year where it's unlikely that McCutchen will be named a "Super Two" player. Since McCutchen played a few weeks the year in the minors, the Pirates would've controlled his rights the next six years after this one no matter what, but the 17% of players between two and three years of service time with the most service time also become "Super Two" players and get an extra year of arbitration. That could have cost the Pirates millions of dollars. Now that we're in late May, it's unlikely McCutchen will be one of those players.
So now is a good time to have McCutchen start learning on the job in the big leagues. His first year probably won't be anything too special--actually, it'll probably look a little like the one Nyjer Morgan is having, but with a little more power--but he'll probably be at least decent now, and the indicators are all there for him to continue to improve as he ages: the well-rounded skill set, the athleticism, the ability to control the strike zone.
I n the big leagues, neither Morgan nor Brandon Moss should block McCutchen if he's ready. Morgan is nothing but a placeholder, and Moss probably isn't much more than that either. Of the two, Morgan has played better so far, but Moss has progressed throughout the year; my personal preference would be for McCutchen to take at bats away from Morgan in the hope that Moss will continue to play well and provide some power, which the Pirates need badly. McCutchen is, by all accounts, a much better defensive outfielder than Nate McLouth, so McLouth should move to left and make room for McCutchen in center.
I won't be too concerned if it's Moss rather than Morgan who loses the at bats, though. Morgan deserves a ton of credit for playing very good defense and generally being a lot more valuable than I ever thought he could be. And anyway, I don't want to miss the forest for the trees--this isn't about Moss or Morgan. It's about McCutchen. He's the best position prospect the Pirates have had since Aramis Ramirez came up, and it's time for him to start at PNC.
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He even threw out a man
at the plate. While I would love for him to be called up Friday…I don’t see him being called up unless there are injuries or trades. Otherwise…it’ll be Labor Day + 1 day.
I believe that one thing that you wrote is not quite right
" Since McCutchen started the year in the minors, the Pirates would’ve controlled his rights the next six years after this one no matter what"
Major league service time is measured in days and the number of days that are equal to one year of service time is about a week less than the number of days in the season. So a minor league player needs to spend about 6 weeks on the farm before his team is assured of controling him for the remainder of the current year plus 6 more.
I’ve always been confused about that. I thought Dejan reported a few months ago that that isn’t true. I’m just going to take it out above, since it’s not really relevant at this point in the year anyway.
by Charlie Wilmoth on May 28, 2009 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions
One year of service=172 days
Supposedly…130 days of service (plus 2 years) is the lowest amount of days that someone has qualified for arbitration in the last 3 years. So count 43 days (42 days plus 1 to be safe) from the beginning of the season (April 6th)…and you get May 19th. The absolute low end below which he can’t be eligible per the CBA is 86 days…so count 87 days…and you get July 2nd.
So, basically, after July 1st…starting his arbitration clock…is irrelevant. Assuming, of course, that once Cutch is called up, he remains with the Pirates. IOW…if Cutch comes up after July 2nd…there is NO way he can qualify for arbitration prior to the end of the 2012 season.
Free agency requires
six FULL seasons unless a team gives up control of the player (releases him).
Just get him on the field!
I don’t care who (Moss or Morgan) he takes at-bats away from, I just want to see him get the call and on the field somewhere. It will be Moss if Moss doesn’t quit swinging at those balls in on his knuckles and popping up in the infield! The Pirates are kind of in a bind if Cutch takes Moss’ spot for two reasons. 1) You’re throwing in the towel on part of the Bay trade very early (who knows what is going to happen with Hansen. He could be out of the league just as easily as he could be a dominant reliever in a year or two.) That will not look good for the front office. This is another reason I really didn’t understand the pieces we got back from Boston in the Bay trade. I liked picking up Hansen, and Moss has some potential, but the Pirates KNEW that McCutchen was very, very close to major league ready! Why crowd your outfield and block your top prospect by trading for another outfielder?! I didn’t really understand that. Nothing against Moss, but it made no sense to get an outfielder in return when you knew that McCutchen would probably be ready to be brought up at some point this year. The Pirates should have just brought up Pearce to finish out last year in RF (we weren’t good anway…who cares?) and hold it this year until Cutch got the call.
2) You have two leadoff men in your lineup with Cutch and Morgan. Morgan can’t hit anywhere else but leadoff (and he’s been great so far), so if Cutch does get the call and takes the place of Moss, where does Cutch hit in the order? Also, Nyjer may be a late bloomer. He could be a good leadoff hitter in the league for the next few years. He has to be consistent all the way through this year, but you never know.
In the end, I just want to see him up. He has been on the cusp since he was 20 years old really, and he finally looks like he has figured it out. He has improved his plate disciplince dramatically and is a blur on the bases. Let’s see Cutch in Pittsburgh!
NyjMo & Moss
Also, Nyjer may be a late bloomer. He could be a good leadoff hitter in the league for the next few years.
He may indeed be. But his age suggests otherwise. And Cutch (hopefully) makes him superfluous.
Moss has some potential, but the Pirates KNEW that McCutchen was very, very close to major league ready! Why crowd your outfield and block your top prospect by trading for another outfielder?! I didn’t really understand that.
1) You can never have enough good outfielders. Also, Moss will make Monroe and/or Hinske expendable if he’s crowded out by NyjMo, Nate & Cutch. Won’t that be a nice problem to have for a change?
I'd rather be dead than singing "Satisfaction" at forty-five. -- M. Jagger
by cocktailsfor2 on May 28, 2009 1:22 AM EDT up reply actions
My thoughts.
1.) I think originally the FO thinking went something like this: we’ll have a future OF with McLouth, McCutchen, and Tabata. At that time, Brandon Moss would be our fourth OF, and a pretty good one at that. Until then, we’ll start him. Use Morgan as a placeholder until McCutchen is ready to get the call, then do whatever with him when McCutchen is ready.
The way Morgan and Moss have both played, though, may end up changing that line of thinking. It may now be Morgan who gets the playing time, not Moss. This is actually a good thing, though, because I think the FO is smart enough to realize that Morgan is a pretty old dude for his skills and sell high on him at the deadline. Now we have 2-3 likely trade pieces instead of 1-2 (I’m kind of counting Jack, though I doubt any team will make a real offer for him). That’ll put Moss in, who this year has been the inferior player, but who has more of a future than Morgan, with the added bonus of stocking our minor league system a bit from a player we were just going to cast aside. This is really much more of a win for the Pirates re: Moss than it looks.
2.) I would actually say we’ll have three leadoff hitters in the lineup when McCutchen comes up: McCutchen, Morgan and McLouth. On a team less starved for power than us, McLouth would definitely lead off. His skillset is perfect for the role.
As far as the lineup I’d personally like to see when Cutch comes up? I’d love to see Morgan-McCutchen-Sanchez-McLouth-Ad. LaRoche-Doumit (when he’s healthy)-An. LaRoche-Jack-Pitcher. I think that lineup would virtually guarantee the table to be set for McLouth every game, and I like Freddy at thrid rather than second in this context because he doesn’t have a lot of discipline, but has an uncanny ability to hit for average that I think could knock in some cheap runs off Morgan and McCutchen.
Post trade deadline, the lineup would probably look different, depending on if we get any ML-ready talent at the deadline. But I see Ad. LaRoche and Morgan gone entirely, and the 1-2-3-4 being McCutchen, Sanchez, McLouth, Doumit. Probably Andy fifth. By jove, that’s actually a really good top of the order.
www.sixtyftsixin.com
by Sixty Feet, Six Inches on May 28, 2009 2:47 AM EDT up reply actions
I don’t want to see Adam LaRoche anywhere near Pittsburgh once the trade deadline comes and goes. He’s awful. As far as the 1-2-3 of Morgan-McCutchen-Sanchez (once Cutch is brought up), it’s a good thought, but Sanchez is not a 3-hole hitter. Sanchez is the perfect 2-hole hitter.That’s two leadoff hitters in the same lineup. Sanchez is a perfect 2-hole hitter. I don’t see NyMo and Cutch on the field at the same time. The only one I could see it is if NyMo keeps it up and when Cutch comes up, they ease him into the lineup by hitting him 6th or 7th. But realisticly, Morgan and Cutch are two leadoff hitters in the same lineup. But if NyMo keeps it up, maybe they don’t plan on bringin’ Cutch up this year. On the other hand, Cutch is the top prospect and if he can stay consistent in Triple-A and maintain that .280-.290 average, the Pirates have no choice but to bring him up and see what he can do. So my post-trade deadline lineup looks like this:
(If NyMo keeps it up)
1. Morgan-LF
2. Sanchez-2B
3. McLouth-RF
4. Doumit-C
5. Hinske/Pearce-1B
6. An. LaRoche-3B
7. McCutchen-CF
8. Wilson/maybe other SS-SS
9. pitcher
Now obviously this lineup is just for the rest of this year (late July-end). The tough decisions will be made in the offseason because Cutch will be the starting CF next year and he will be hitting leadoff. You could flip flop LaRoche and Hinske/Pearce if you want. Just depends. Pearce may not get a call-up if he doesn’t start doin’ something at Triple-A though. I really think it’s time for the organization to move on from him. There are a lot of free agent 1B out there after this year, and unless Pedro Alvarez is going to move over to 1B next year (which I think is going to happen), I would really like to see them go after Nick Johnson or Aubrey Huff. Just my opinion.
I’m not saying it’s right, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see JR put Morgan in the 9 spot and move the pitcher up like last year. You don’t want your lineup to necessarily “feature” him like it is now, but he’s been pretty good at getting on base and running them thus far, so he might be what JR’s looking for in that role.
I’m all for making the trades we need to but if we don’t, we’d have a pretty solid lineup from top to bottom to match our pitching staff, assuming we don’t break that up either.
charity standing orders
LaRoche:
.220/.298/.372 through the end of May last year.
.321/.386/.656 from the first day of June until the end of the season.
Why are you giving up on him now?
If they can get value for him in a trade, that’s fine, but getting rid of him just to get rid of him would be the height of stupidity.
Why are you giving up on him now?
Are you really asking this question? Because he’s terrible! The only time he ever hits is July-end of the season, when we are already 20-25 games out and it doesn’t matter anymore. I’m sick of having a 1B that doesn’t do anything the first half of the season. It’s been three years of the the same old stuff and it’s time for him to go. Anybody would be better than him.
We were no less likely to contend...
…last April than we were last July. And each game is worth exactly the same in the standings. So why does it matter whether he hits early or hits late? Hits are hits, and runs are runs, and “being tired” of a player is a lousy reason to get rid of him.
I will give you an example...
which team is likely to play harder…one that is 45-35 or one that is 35-45?? I would argue that the 45-35 team will play harder. Success early in the season feeds on itself. While not a guarantee of an improved team…most strong starts don’t turn into train wrecks. And don’t give me the thought that these guys are professionals…they try hard all the time…or I will give you Ian Snell.
Someone that habitually starts out slowly could very easily cost his team quite a few games…thus a bad record at the all star break. When the rest of the team doesn’t put out quite as much effort in the 2nd half…bringing more losses…all of a sudden the slow starter starts hitting …but not enough to turn the team around.
Yes…games count equally in April and July…and September. But when a team has buried itself in losses…one guy turning things around in the 2nd half means zippo.
Ladies and gentlemen…I give you exhibit A…Adam LaRoche.
Either one could play harder.
It depends on the players on both teams. Maybe the 35-45 guys are grinders, and the 45-35 guys are lazy and entitled.
If you have a team that’s in a pennant race in September, they’d probably love to have a guy like LaRoche mashing the ball for them down the stretch.
Exactly Vlad! You’re making my point for me! He’s great to have on a contending team because of his second half hitting, but his second half hitting means absolutely nothing for us because we are going to be 20-25 games out of first place. Me and Thunder’s point is that LaRoche has had time after time after time to drive in big runs the past three years at the beginning of the season and never gets the big hit, costing us a lot of games that we could’ve won in the first half to maybe stay in contention longer.
My issue with that...
…is the idea that we were ever “in contention” in the first place, or that we’re sacrificing anything of significant value by losing games early rather than late.
ok, well, it really doesn’t matter what you, or I for that matter, think about Adam LaRoche. The truth is that he WILL be traded and he only has two months left in Pittsburgh (thank God). End of story. Then we will have a 1B that might actually show up from April-June.
He might be traded...
…or they might hold him and take the comp pick(s?), if all the offers at the dealine suck. Or they might sign him to an extension, if they get good terms. Nobody knows.
We all do. He’s getting traded. If you seriously think he isn’t getting traded, you’re crazy. There’s no need to pay a guy $7M a year to do the crap he does from April-June every year. We could pull Mark McGwire out of retirement and he could hit .220 with 7 HR and 29 RBI this far into the season.
If they can't trade him for value...
…they’ll keep him, offer him arb, and then either take the picks if he walks or work out a long-term deal if he comes cheap enough.
The odds of him coming back are low, since he’s arguably the best FA 1B on the market this offseason, and as such will probably get some good mid-level offers. But if the economy stays in the tank, I wouldn’t say never.
It might also depend on whether they’re able to flip Jack and/or Freddy for value at the deadline, in terms of 2010 budgeting.
But he will have great value, and that’s exactly why we need to trade him. Contending teams know that he is one of the best second half hitters in all of baseball. There will be many teams inquiring about his services. But you’re right about the deal. Huntingdon better not trade him for scrubs, and I can’t imagine him doing that. They better get the quality players they are looking for in return, or don’t make the deal.
From your earlier posts...
…I thought you just wanted to get rid of him, regardless of whether we get value back or not.
If you’re just trying to say that you hope they can move him for value at the deadline, I pretty much agree with that.
And for the record:
They aren’t paying him $7M a year to hit like he does in April/May. They’re paying him $7M a year for what he does in the rest of the season, when he hits like an uber-stud.
Well in that case, they should just cut his pay in half to $3.5M and start paying him at the end of June since he only does his job for half the season. He doesn’t do anything from April-June.
He doesn't do anything in April/May
And then he does twice as much in the rest of the season.
They pay $7M for $7M worth of production, which he delivers. If he doesn’t happen to distribute it in exactly the way you’d like, that’s your problem, not his or theirs.
mspirate
I think Vlad is trying to point out what too many conveniently forget, which is the full season and LaRoche’s entire “body of work”-to use the en vogue term.
If we get much less at the plate and in the field from the position next season, many of the same people who trash Adam will be trashing his replacements as well.
Exactly on the money Pat and Vlad
Adam gets paid for his overall production or what his stats are at the end of the season. If he put up the numbers he does from July – September over the course of a full season, he would command a much higher salary and be too expensive for the Pirates right now. Sadly, there is noone in the system that is ready to move to the ML level that could come close to Adam’s numbers.
by gorillakilla34 on May 28, 2009 8:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Pearce
Pearce has actually turned it around after his strong start, and he’s clipping along pretty well at AAA right now with a .255/.356/.418 line and 7 homers.
www.sixtyftsixin.com
by Sixty Feet, Six Inches on May 28, 2009 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Err
That should say WEAK start.
www.sixtyftsixin.com
by Sixty Feet, Six Inches on May 28, 2009 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Two-three leadoff hitters
Well, if a leadoff hitter is one that gets on base, I’ll take a lineup with 4-5 leadoff hitters.
This probably isn't the best thread to do this...
But I’ve been wanting to get this off my chest for a while now. I’m just speculating, but in looking at the Bay deal I think people are putting too much emphasis on what we got from Boston.
It seems to me that the Bucs basically took what they could from Boston in the deal as ‘frosting on the cake’ . When you compare what we kept hearing about what we wanted from other teams for Bay (primarily Tampa), it seems that if we couldn’t get an elite prospect then we were willing to take two good prospects. We got those from the Dodgers in Andy LaRoche & Morris. The fact that we were able to get filler from Boston that we kinda liked sweetened the deal.
Put another way, I think that we would’ve traded Bay to LA straight up for Morris & LaRoche. I think the Bucs look at the players from the Red Sox in the Bay deal similar to how they looked at Karstens in the Nady/Marte deal: a warm body of mediocre pedigree that the other team was willing to include on a list of players they would give away if necessary to complete a substantive deal.
Thus, I think that too much stock is being put into the impact of Moss’ and Hansen’s performances when evaluating the Bay trade.
Good day.
Im with you
Andy was the big hitting prospect, Morris pitching. We got 2 ML ready (if not spectacular players) in Moss and Hansen that both had sleeper potential (Moss’ fabled power, Hansen’s arm), but were not the focal points of the trade.
McLouth is The Trouth
unfortunately
I understand the trade a bit. in that…as much as you’d like to see Pearce play in right field. IMO Pearce Strikes out way too much and he hasn’t really shown much now in AAA. I think top brass felt Moss had more potential and you still want to field a competitive team.
It’s a bit of hit & miss type gamble for the trades. You get more players in than go out and hopefully one of those hits big. Right now Moss is kinda iffy, and I’m still not sure on Byron Morris who’s been out for a while with arm trouble. At the time, NH was trying to shore up our Minor league system and still be able to trot out Big Leaguers in some sense. If Moss were hitting lights out, no one would be complaining about the trade and instead calling it a steal. But trades are such potluck even with good scouting.
I do not want a AAA Team for a MLB Team nor do I want to see AAA players on the MLB team.
Although I like Nyjer Morgan. If Cutch comes up, I think he replaces Morgan. Moss provides more power for HR and hits more line drives that can be doubles/triples. Adding Cutch will only help hitters in front and behind him, if Cutch hits for average.
I believe so.
I’ve seen Cutch play in Indy several times, and he is lightning fast out there. When he takes off to steal a base, he’s usually half way there before the catcher even gets his mask off.
Caveat: I’ve never seen McLouth live, just on TV.
www.sixtyftsixin.com
by Sixty Feet, Six Inches on May 28, 2009 2:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Moss
I sometimes feel that I’m the biggest Moss apologist/defender/fan on this blog and I really don’t want to see McCutchen take at-bats away from Moss. I’ve been pleased with Moss’s development in recent weeks and I think it would be detrimental to take at-bats away from him. I think if Moss develops some more consistent power, he could be a valuable role player on future Pirates teams.
Now obviously McCutchen is much more of a prospect and future impact player than Moss and the most important thing is to get him up here and get him playing within the next month. However I think it would be a major mistake to take at-bats away from Moss instead of away from Morgan (despite his fine play so far).
However judging from JR’s actions so far this season I think that the at-bats will unfortunately come from Moss.
I made most of my life decisions at a Foghat concert... I stand by them.
by Chester J Lampwick on May 28, 2009 1:04 AM EDT reply actions
I sometimes feel that I’m the biggest Moss apologist/defender/fan on this blog and I really don’t want to see McCutchen take at-bats away from Moss. I’ve been pleased with Moss’s development in recent weeks and I think it would be detrimental to take at-bats away from him. I think if Moss develops some more consistent power, he could be a valuable role player on future Pirates teams.
If you’re the biggest, Chester, I’m second. I like Moss, and think he can and will be a valuable contributor to the Pirates in the future, even ultimately as the 4th OF, 1st PH or backup 1B. The kid has the ability. Perhaps not as a starting OF (and certainly on several teams other than ours, he would be 4th OF [i.e. BoSox]- and oh, won’t it be nice when we face that predicament?), but right NOW, he should be starting, and 85%-95% of the games, IMO.
JR continues to baffle me, and not just in Moss’ case.
I'd rather be dead than singing "Satisfaction" at forty-five. -- M. Jagger
by cocktailsfor2 on May 28, 2009 1:16 AM EDT up reply actions
I think Cutch probably stays down until July 1.
Moss and Morgan lose PT evenly until the deadline, at which point LaRoche probably gets traded and Moss starts picking up some time at 1B until the end of the year (with Pearce possibly also getting a look).
I think the headline
should read: “charlie succumbs.”
;-)
I'd rather be dead than singing "Satisfaction" at forty-five. -- M. Jagger
I’m not succumbing to anything! :) I love McCutchen and always have!
by Charlie Wilmoth on May 28, 2009 1:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Heh.
I think when we bring Cutch up, we release Monroe & give Cutch #18
I'd rather be dead than singing "Satisfaction" at forty-five. -- M. Jagger
by cocktailsfor2 on May 28, 2009 1:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Charlie, I am happy to see you feel the same way I do ...
I just wish you’d have been there a week ago when I got thrown under the bus for suggesting the same thing!
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2009/5/21/882228/andrew-mccutchen
I guess your seniority on the page keeps some of the bigger critics quiet! ;^)
Sorry about pre-empting your article. Yours was a better arguement.
by Pensburgh Pirates on May 28, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Well,
it IS his blog, after all. ;-)
(you have 54 responses on yours – nothing to sneeze at!)
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on May 28, 2009 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I’d hardly consider that getting thrown under the bus. A lot of people agreed with you and others said wait a little bit more. Very few vehemently disagreed.
I made most of my life decisions at a Foghat concert... I stand by them.
by Chester J Lampwick on May 29, 2009 1:35 AM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think we will see McCutchen until we deal Adam LaRoche. At that time I think the Bucs have to think about using either Moss or Doumit at 1B. Since management insists that Doumit is going to be a C, I would then have McLouth in LF, McCutchen in CF and Morgan/Monroe in RF. Morgan has not done well vs LHP this year, but has done very well against RH. McCutchen or even Freddy could lead off vs LHP. Monroe has been good vs LHP and could stay in the 4th or 5th spot.. Moss then goes to 1B and plays nearly everyday. I think McCutchen also gives you lots of options with the RH line up then. He could bat 2nd with Freddy 3rd, Nate 4th and Doumit 5th. Or Freddy stays 2nd, Cutch bats 3rd with Nat 4th and Doumit 5th. Or Nate stays at 3, Doumit at 4 and Cutch in the 5 hole. McCutchen doesn’t have Adam’s power yet, but he would get on base more often and strike out far less. So, dealing Adam and adding Andrew seems like a plus already and that’s not counting anything we would get back in trading LaRoche.
The other thing is we cash in now on Morgan at peak value. Trade him and while McCutchen’s power develops, you let him lead off ala Nate last year. You still deal Adam – even if it means Pearce (or even Hinske) mans 1B through the end of the year.
I’d be Ok with a lineup of McCutchen in CF, Freddy at 2B, Nate in LF, Doumit at C, Andy at 3B, Moss in RF, Pearce at 1B and Jack at SS.
Just my random thoughts on the issue.
Morgan in LF
According to Fangraphs’ UZR, Morgan is the best fielder in baseball this year.
The Fielding Bible stats have him tied for the lead among all LF in Plus/Minus. His fielding numbers at BaseballProspectus are similarly glowing.
Even if he hits like Juan Pierre, he’s still an above-average LF if he’s 10-20 runs better than average in the field. He also never hits into double plays (literally — 0 GIDP in 50 career opportunities) and, despite an average base stealing %, he gets high marks for non-SB baserunning on both the BillJamesOnline and BP metrics.
Maybe we should keep Nyjer in LF and move McLouth to RF? With the Pirates’ pitch-to-contact staff (e.g. we’re 4th in MLB in total fly balls allowed), having three CF-type OF seems to make some sense.
I agree with you too
There are worse things in the world than a lightning fast outfielder who hits .300 (even if it make up most of his OPS). If he could run the bases with half of Nate’s smarts he would be a great asset. Just look what’s happening in JuanPierrewood right now. I dont care if he’s 27 (His AARP card’s in the mail!). If this is what he’s going to be it’s not bad.
McLouth is The Trouth
I agree.
I agree that it’s time, but for my own selfish reasons, I’ll be really mad if it happens before Sunday. I’m going to a AAA Indians game that day, and it’ll probably be the last time I ever get to see Cutch play live.
By the way, we have a nickname for Andrew here in Indy – McClutchen. I hope it makes its way to the Burgh.
www.sixtyftsixin.com
by Sixty Feet, Six Inches on May 28, 2009 2:49 AM EDT reply actions
Whoa, whoa. Easy man. He won’t be up before July, most likely, so you don’t have to worry about him not being there when you go to the Indians game Sunday. I think Charlie is just stating his general opinion about wanting McCutchen up and feeling like he’s ready to be called up. He’s not saying he’s going to be called up within a week or so. Right Charlie?
McCutchen will still be in Triple-A Indianapolis on Sunday so you don’t have to worry. I’m 100% sure he will still be there, unless he gets hurt (that would be our luck…please no!!)
Moss is quite the puzzle for the Pirates. On one hand, we think he has a lot of potential (and indeed, PECOTA compares him to Curtis Granderson, Paul O’Neil, Carlos Pena, Jay Buhner, and Ryan Ludwick at the same age). On the other hand, he hasn’t shownt this ability at all in actual games, from the lack of power to a poor on-base rate. The good news is that the last few weeks offer a glimmer of hope, though. A lot of those other players were very late bloomers, and the question becomes how long can we wait for his bat to show up?
What’s the rush? As you note he has a lot of potential and I have seen improvement in the past few weeks. Check out his stats, I realize it hasn’t been that long but his average and power have improved since early May.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?n1=mossbr01&t=b&year=2009
It’s not like the Pirates have a ton of other options, Moss isn’t blocking anyone and the guys on the bench are less than impressive, let him play for the rest of the season and see what happens.
I made most of my life decisions at a Foghat concert... I stand by them.
by Chester J Lampwick on May 28, 2009 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Homer
Dejan will tell me “no soup!”, but Bucs Dugout is the perfect place to talk trade options, so …
Cincinnati is looking for a left fielder. Would they take Morgan in a deal for SP Homer Bailey? Bailey is full of potential but has been terrible when called up to pitch. Lots of folks say he needs a change of scenery. I wouldn’t do the deal if I were Cincy, but you never know with that front office.
Dunno.
Cincy’s moves never make sense to me, so it’s hard to know what they want.
If I were going to shop Nyjer, I’d probably start with the White Sox, who need a CF in the worst way right now.
I should also add...
…that I’m not crazy about Bailey. He’s got good velo on his FB, but it’s straight, and he doesn’t use his secondary stuff very effectively.
We could (and did) say the same things about Ohlendorf a few months ago and he has since made some good strides at a much older age. I’m not saying we should be “crazy” about him (i.e. trade half our team for him), but if Morgan was the main piece in a trade for him, I don’t see how we could go wrong.
I think the Reds are going to be more interested in using Bailey as a piece to get a guy like Peavy or Holliday anyway, and Morgan’s greatest value would probably come, as you said, from someone looking for a CF, but if the Reds are interested, I’d listen to what they had to say.
charity standing orders
I don't think Bailey can pull those kind of players anymore.
He’s 23 now, his (admittedly skinny) ML track record sucks, and he hasn’t even had any real success in the minors since 2007.
He’s not worthless, but he’s a B- at best, and trending down.
True, but both those players are going to be free agents and the teams are trying to flip them. Bailey still has a lot of upside if he can put it all together, so I could see him as a piece of a trade, especially for Holliday, who’s trending down himself.
charity standing orders
Holliday isn't trending down.
He’s trending up:
March/April: .240/.288/.360
May: .300/.417/.478
His season line still looks like crap because he had such a slow start, but he’s been hitting very well for about a month now.
Also, I’ll be shocked if Beane has any interest at all in Bailey. Oakland has a bunch of young pitching to sort through at the moment, and has much bigger needs in other areas (such as SS).
If we were going to talk with Cincy about Morgan...
…I’d try and target Chris Valaika or Daryl Thompson instead of Bailey. The Reds don’t really need Valaika since they have Phillips at 2B and a better upper-minors 2B/SS prospect in Todd Frazier, but he’d be a nice fit here for us if we trade Jack and/or Freddy. Thompson’s working through some shoulder issues right now, but he’s got good stuff and he’s much more advanced in his approach than Bailey is.
If the Reds wanted to move Valaika, that’d be great, but I’d be surprised if all they wanted back was our slap hitting LF. I’m thinking Bailey might even be a stretch for Morgan, but it’d be a good opportunity to buy an undervalued commodity with an overvalued commodity if we could pull it off. Valaika’s had a pretty slow start in Louisville, but I doubt they’re down on him as a prospect, considering he’s fairly young and just starting AAA ball.
charity standing orders
I don't think it'd be a matter of them being down on him...
…as much as a matter of not needing him. He’s not going to play 3B ahead of Encarnacion, he’s not going to play 2B ahead of Phillips, and Frazier probably has first dibs on SS (assuming he can handle it – of course, Valaika might be stretched there, too). His bat would be wasted in the OF, so if he stays in Cincy, he’s a bench player unless Frazier flops.
That makes him expendable if they can flip him to fill a need elsewhere. Pulling a steal is nice, but most of the time, you have to give talent to get talent, and if the Reds can give talent they don’t need to get talent that they do, they’d probably make the deal.
Right, I’m sure they’d like to flip him for a talented LF, but do you really think Morgan is in the same talent class? Obviously his glove has been very good this year, but that would be largely wasted in their tiny ballbark leaving them with his .362 OBP and baserunning “abilities”.
Like I said above, I’d be a little surprised if they were willing to part with Bailey for Morgan, much more so with players who’d be considered better prospects, blocked or not.
charity standing orders
And as I said earlier...
…the Reds do enough odd/stupid things that I have trouble accurately predicting their responses, so I don’t like to speculate about them.
While I see Bailey as a cut below guys like Valaika and Thompson, I’m not sure that the market does, and that’s the more relevant consideration here. They’re both solid B/B- grade guys, who might look a little better than that because they’re in a system with a soft top end. Thompson would be higher if not for his injuries, and Valaika would be higher if not for the questions about his D, but then Bailey would be higher if he were anything more than a fastball with a pulse, wouldn’t he?
Frazier
Fraziers isn’t a SS. He’s now playing LF in AA and may be Cincy’s LF solution next year (recently been picking it up after a slow start).
Valaika is streched at SS. His best position is probably 2B. He got off to a horrendous start this year and is now on the DL. I like his pop and would love to get him from the Reds. But it will take more than Morgan.
As I said upthread...
…I don’t see why the Reds would want Morgan. My only point is that if they did for some reason, then there were better players for us to target than Bailey.
They already have a Nyjer
Granted he doesn’t hit for as high an average but Willy Taveras falls into that Juan Pierre Category. I dont think they really want 2 speed no power guys
McLouth is The Trouth
I live in Dayton, OH and the sports talk people around here couldn’t get rid of Bailey soon enough. I doubt the Reds would part with him very easily, but who knows. He’s got good stuff and a lot of K’s, but he still has work to do and he seems to be a bit of a hot head from what I’ve heard. Kerrigan has done wonders for our pitching staff outside of Snell, and he’s probably the closest comparison on our staff to Bailey.
I doubt they’d trade straight up for Nyjer, but Morgan isn’t much use to us, so I’d certainly start there and see where things go.
charity standing orders
Did a quick check over at Baseball Prospectus...
on baserunning stats. Mainly for Nyjer. What I found may or may not be surprising.
The general running category is best described by Equivalent Base Running Runs…defined as
Measures the number of runs contributed by a player’s advancement on the bases, above what would be expected based on the number and quality of the baserunning opportunities with which the player is presented, park-adjusted and based on a multi-year run expectancy table.
The stat is broken down into 5 categories…which I won’t go into in any detail…but what it shows can be a bit surprising.
1) Nyjer is the 3rd best overall baserunner on the TEAM and 26th in the majors. Ahead of him…Nate (no surprise) and Andy (WTF??).
2) Nyjer grades out well below normal in 2 categories…and above normal in 3.
a) Advancing on ground balls…well below normal (6th WORST in NL, 10th worst in ML).
b) Stolen base runs…well below normal (lowest 10%) in majors
c) Advancing on balls in the air…above normal (8th in NL, 17th in majors)
d) Advancing on hits…above normal (41st in majors, top 10%, leader is JBay)
e) Other advancement (WP, PB, balks)…above normal (2nd in ML behind JMorneau)
3) The lack of success for Nyjer in stolen bases does extend back to last year (lowest 15% in majors).
4) Nate is the best baserunner on the team by far…he ranks 15th in the majors this year…and was 9th last year.
over-running bases
Well I think part of his stolen base runs if that he over runs err over slides aroudn the base quite often causing him to get tagged out. If he would slide over the bag instead of beside the bag, he’d slow down quicker and not be tagged out so often. And this has been brought up many times by the radio staff. I think the other problem is that he is still learning the pitchers and their moves.
As far as advancing of ground balls…..i don’t see why he isn’t higher with his speed…. unless he’s being forced into double plays or following batters are hitting to the SS preventing him from moving over.
Call me Captain Conspiracy but....
I think that NH blows up the buccos at the deadline and appeases the faithful by bringing up McClutchen to ease our pain.
If...by blow up...
you mean trading Grabow, Adam, Jack and Freddy…you’re probably right.
Just noticed
We’re not in the basement! Hey Mclane, at least those tens of millions weren’t in the stock market right??
McLouth is The Trouth
Charlie
“McCutchen is, by all accounts, a much better defensive outfielder than Nate McLouth, so McLouth should move to left and make room for McCutchen in center.”
No way the team moves McLouth out of center for McCutchen on a daily basis this year. Regardless of what some stats say that seem to question McLouth’s 2008 Gold Glove, he did win it and get an awful lot of kudos from his peers for his defense last season.
He’s looked pretty damn good this year, too.
McCutchen has to prove he belongs in the majors this year. The team is not going to move their Gold Glove CF to left right off the bat for a minor league recall, no matter how anticipated his debut is.
I think you need to put aside the stats and so-called expert reports of the defensive abilities of the two, and imagine the response such a move would provoke in a major league clubhouse.
It might be the best move in the end, but we shall see. I remember it took the team a few months in 1987 to move Bonds to left for Andy Van Slyke, and we all know now that Leyland made the right move.
If I’m wrong, I’ll show up to say so later this season, but I think you’re jumping the gun on this one.
I’m sorry, but McLouth is not a great centerfielder. McCutchen, by nearly all accounts, is. I don’t really care what response that would produce in the clubhouse, and I strongly suspect that there wouldn’t be much of a response anyway—everyone there knows who McCutchen is and has seen him play.
by Charlie Wilmoth on May 28, 2009 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I think McLouth is a better CF than you give him credit for.
I know there were numbers posted a while back on BD that called into question his Gold Glove, but he did win it. I think the coaches who voted for it know more about the game than the numbers-crunchers who try to take away from his accomplishment.
We’ve seen McLouth in enough games in the majors to know what he can do on a daily basis over the long grind of a 162-game season.
We’re yet to see what Cutch can do in any way in Pittsburgh.
He has to earn his stripes before they’ll give a Gold-Glove CF the boot for a rookie.
No way the team moves McLouth next month or the month after to make room for Cutch.
I guess we’ll have to agree to disagree here.
I don’t think the Gold Glove means anything. Nothing. The voters gave Rafael Palmeiro a Gold Glove at first in a year he played something like 20 games in the field. They’re legacy awards when they’re not completely arbitrary, based on what the voters saw on SportsCenter or ate that week.
I don’t think McLouth is a bad CF, and I think some of the numbers that say he is bad have to do with the way the Pirates have chosen to position him. But he’s not that fast and his range and reactions leave something to be desired.
By the way, I never said anything about what the team WOULD do. I’m talking about what the team SHOULD do.
by Charlie Wilmoth on May 28, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Charlie
I understand what you’re saying about guys getting the awards at times based on reputation, or a ridiculous case like Palmeiro’s, but you really think the managers and coaches who vote for them each year don’t know what they’re doing for the most part, or don’t take the responsibility seriously?
The Gold Glove means “nothing”? Really?
“I don’t think McLouth is a bad CF, and I think some of the numbers that say he is bad have to do with the way the Pirates have chosen to position him. But he’s not that fast and his range and reactions leave something to be desired.”
You think the reports indicate that Cutch is already much better defensively than McLouth, so they SHOULD move Nate to accomodate Cutch for his debut later this year.
I interpret it differently. At this point, Nate is a more consistent defender in center, and I bet the team knows it, too. A year or two from now, it may be a different story.
I understand what you’re saying about guys getting the awards at times based on reputation, or a ridiculous case like Palmeiro’s, but you really think the managers and coaches who vote for them each year don’t know what they’re doing for the most part, or don’t take the responsibility seriously?
I don’t think they don’t take them seriously, no. How else to explain the Palmeiro thing? Or three consecutive awards for Derek Jeter?
Generally speaking, players don’t really improve much at outfield defense, because when they enter the league they’re about as fast as they’re ever going to be. For a player like McCutchen who is fundamentally sound, I doubt keeping him in a corner would have any benefit. And from what I’ve seen/heard, yes, he’s a better defensive CF than McLouth right now.
by Charlie Wilmoth on May 28, 2009 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Fielding can be improved by learning better routes to the ball, timing, and reading balls better when they come off a bat. We all saw last year with Nyjer that speed doesn’t always equal better defense in the outfield.
by gorillakilla34 on May 28, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions
When he came up, Nyjer was a pretty exceptional player in terms of having no idea how to play baseball. I’ve never seen or heard any indication that McCutchen is anything like him that way. In fact, quite the opposite.
by Charlie Wilmoth on May 28, 2009 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions
(sobbing) Leave Derek alone!!
I love Derek Jeter, and I don’t care who knows it. I mean, y’know, I love him as a ballplayer.
Michael Young
Michale Young was SS And gold glove at that for the Texas Rangers and they moved him to 3B this year so a nice young rookie. Elvis Andrus could play SS. Granted Andrus hasn’t been hitting the cover off the ball, but supposedly his defense is excellent. As well the rest of the team has been hitting so it’s been easy to hide him a bit.
So I don’t see where they couldn’t move Nate just because he has a gold glove. trying to think of other instances…..Barry Larkin (may or may not have been a gold glover) but i think he moved around on the left side of the field right?
Yeah, the Michael Young example is a good one. The Rangers had a rookie with an excellent defensive reputation, so they moved Young.
by Charlie Wilmoth on May 28, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks…heard them mention it on ESPN yesterday during the Texas-NYY broadcast. I mean Gold glove for 3 yrs and then asking him to move to 3B for a rookie and supposedly M. Young took it in stride and said okay without a problem. Talk about being a Team player.
I don’t see why we should care, though. Young is probably having the best offensive season of his career so far. Andrus has hit pretty well and has gotten very high marks for his defense. So it looks, at least so far, like the Rangers made the right decision, and the kvetching didn’t have any negative impact.
by Charlie Wilmoth on May 28, 2009 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Not sure exactly what it means...
…but so far, per UZR, Young has been the worst defensive 3B in baseball.
Yeah, I don’t know if McLouth earned his Gold Glove or not, but I’m slow to dismiss the respect of the baseball community. Obviously numbers have changed the way the game is scouted and played so it’s easy to place a lot of confidence in number crunchers. However, the numbers that have transformed the league have been pretty well understood, revolving around easily quantifiable and repeatable phenomena over a very large sample space. Defensive metrics are simply not well understood, easily quantifiable, (to a lesser extent) repeatable phenomena, and don’t have an adequate sample space for the variance they exhibit, so there’s limited utility in studying them, much like there’s limited utility in what Football Outsiders is doing. My gut tells me that he’s at least an average fielder, and I don’t think the defensive metrics are reason enough for me to abandon that position any more than I’m going to let Football Outsiders convince me Ike Taylor isn’t a good CB.
We can argue that this is just a quad-A squad until 2012, so you should develop the best long term CF, who is undoubtedly McCutchen, but I doubt he’d be some huge upgrade right away.
charity standing orders
I’m not dismissing “the baseball community” or scouting in general. I’m dismissing voters who have often completely bungled Gold Glove awards in the past and have never really gotten them right. If their paycheck hinged on making more careful, reasonable selections, they might be able to do it. But right now, the Gold Glove awards are a joke. A nice thing for Nate, but a joke nonetheless.
by Charlie Wilmoth on May 28, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Provocative but ill-timed
The time is exactly NOT now. How could it be now? Morgan has continued to be a solid contributor. Moss’s OPS in May is .814. If he comes up, it should be to play every day, but why do that and spoil the worth of Morgan or Moss? I don’t think he will or should come up until a player is moved. I really doubt they’ll move Morgan, but if Adam is traded I can see Moss getting time at first. I don’t think ACutch will be hurt by another month on the farm either.
I can see Morgan leaving Pittsburgh in some sort of package deal with the likes of LaRoche or Grabow but not on his own.
I made most of my life decisions at a Foghat concert... I stand by them.
by Chester J Lampwick on May 28, 2009 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Azibuck wrote after watching Cutch at Indy a few weeks ago:
1st game:
“Andrew McCutchen again surprised in a disappointing way – his defense. With the tying run on, McCutchen did not track Luke Hughes’ deep drive to the CF wall very confidently, and he hit the wall the same time the ball did, without a leap. The ball dropped for a double. Justin Huber followed with a single up the middle, slow enough to allow Hughes to score from 2nd with the winner. McCutchen got to the ball and may have had a play at the plate but his throw was pretty horrific, up the 3B line. I just watched it on the news and he throws it clear out of the picture as Huber slides in. McCutchen did triple and single, and otherwise looked good at the plate.”
Next game:
“That was also the first time all series McCutchen had squared to bunt. So much for working on that.”
It’s only 2 games, but it sure sounds like to me that Cutch could use more time to improve his game before arriving in Pittsburgh.
If Adam LaRoche is traded and we have some space to get Moss ABs at first soon, then Cutch could play on a regular basis and we could start to see what kind of player he really is. (I hope he doesn’t struggle as much as Bonds did at the plate at the same age upon arriving in Pittsburgh in ’86.)
I can’t see the team taking Nyjer out of the leadoff spot for Cutch. Nyj has earned the right to play til he plays himself out of the lineup. Ultimately, Cutch should replace Nyj because we certainly can’t get anywhere with a power-deprived OF with Morgan and Cutch, with so little coming from most of the IF too.
I hope Cutch comes up and plays great at the plate and in the field from the get-go, but I think we should be careful about expecting too much.
I think blocking McCutchen with Morgan or Moss would be cutting off your nose to spite your face. The last two are role players.
by Charlie Wilmoth on May 28, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the organization wants to keep Cutch
at Indy for 1-3 more months because they think it will benefit his development as a player over the long term.
If they were sure he could do better than Nyj and/or Moss at this point of the season, he would already be in Pittsburgh.
For 6-8 more weeks?
I don’t think “blocking” him for that long will really retard any development.
Also, if McCutchen’s ceiling is MGrissom, and there’s no guarantee he reaches that ceiling, that makes him a role player too. If I wanted to play devil’s advocate, I’d argue they should keep Cutch down all year, and to start next year too. He’s “ready” but not “polished” I think.
Whoa, who ever said his ceiling was Grissom?! Never mind the “ceiling” issue—I think Cutch is very LIKELY to be a better player than Grissom, who couldn’t get on base to save his life. Saying his ceiling is Grissom sells him way, way short.
I’m not a big fan of the idea of leaving McCutchen in AAA for more than two years. There’s a danger in leaving promising players down there for too long—they often stop developing if they’re not challenged, or they get demoralized. And honestly, if that decision has anything to do with Morgan and Moss, it’s fair to ask when would EVER be a good time to bring up a rookie. McCutchen is one of the best prospects in baseball, and Moss and Morgan would be recognized as fans of any other team as totally replaceable guys.
by Charlie Wilmoth on May 28, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Hmmm. Well NOT you!
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2006/5/13/151652/408
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2006/1/13/18133/5155
(Only you and I gave a damn in 2006. Now look at this thread! Props for developing your site and fanbase.)
Based on that first link, I think very early he must have been comped with Grissom, and I probably saw it in other places. But I see now how old and probably faulty those comps were, as well as my connecting them to you, so nevermind what I said. I’m just here for the drinks anyway.
Yeah, I remembered someone connecting him to Grissom as soon as you said that.
by Charlie Wilmoth on May 28, 2009 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Why are we running Morgan out of town!
Just because he is 28?! He is a catalyst. I have no issue having him play everyday, but I like having him as depth on the bench even more. He would be an ideal 4th outfielder and a valuable pinch runner. He could be a great bench guy for 3-4 years and an asset to the clubhouse. I am in no hurry to get rid of him.
I like trading Adam LaRoche, moving Moss to 1st and having ACutch play left w/NyMo moving to right.
I’m with you, Van Slyke. Like I said earlier, this guy might just be a late bloomer. People think otherwise because of his age, but isn’t that what late bloomer means? I think NyMo may be a good leadoff hitter for a few years to come. On the other hand, he may be a one year wonder. But we have to give him a chance, at least a full year. He’s doing great so far this year, and he has a very fiery attitude and grit about him that this team needs. I like NyMo, and hope he continues to do well. On the other hand, I do want McCutchen up. I don’t know who he takes ABs away from, but he needs to be up and start his ML career.
Even if he IS a late bloomer...
…he will have bloomed and withered by the time this team is ready to contend. Which makes him expendable if we can get good value for him.
Think about the timeline. There’s virtually no chance of us contending before 2012, and even that requires a good deal of optimism and some luck on our part. In 2012, Nyjer will be 31 and already starting to decline. Do you really want to bet that a guy whose game is based almost entirely around speed will still be fast and nimble into his 30s?
Having a good bench player is nice. Trading a good bench player for a different guy who can start for you is even better.
McCutchen..
You make a very persuasive argument,Charlie.
It's funny
how we, as Pirate fans, get all hopped up when one of our players, who we don’t really like, starts to play well, and the pipedreams of prospects start to roll. Cause we think that other teams’ GMs will be foolish enough to make a decision just based on the small sample size of a month or 2, and throw prospects away…..wait a minute, the buccos did that with the Yanks last year. ha
Quick question, DK has mentioned July 2nd as being the international signing day. How does this work? It can’t be that there is a mad dash by every team to sign 50 players on one day, or is it just a free for all, all year and just the elite prospects sign on the 2nd kinda like college signing day?
So...
In the future CBAs, you think that MLB or the Player’s union will apply the draft to all international players? considering that…..
If you get drafted you get peanuts, but if you come from international waters you could get a bit more money only because there’s no “draft” in the sense for those nations?
Consider Sano getting a bonus of 5M for someone with “RAW” talent…..and a 1st round draft pick in the MLB draft (sans Boras or any other high lvl agent) what are the considerations/ramifications of this?
I don't know why it couldn't be collectively bargained
The NBA drafts international players. I think the MLBPA would be wise to push for this actually.
My Sentiments exactly….I’m surprised this hasn’t been brought up earlier or maybe the MLBPA feels that the players signed outside the draft are far and few between to worry about.
Thinking more...
As messed up as the owners are, maybe it’s they that can’t come to agreement on whether or how to do it. It doesn’t help the big spenders to level the Intl. playing field.
A worldwide draft has been mentioned before...
…but the owners were never willing to make sufficient concessions in other areas for the MLBPA to agree.
God Bless you, Charlie!! :)
From your lips to Huntington’s ears.
I was going to write a Fan Post on this, but I bow to the Master. Hope DK and yahoo/sports picks this up. The number of comments shows what a hot issue this is.
Some comments on the commentators:
1. Bringing McCutchen up does NOT start the clock on free agency. Whether he’s brought up tomorrow or not until start of the 2010 season, he still would be a free agent after the end of the 2015 season.
2. Bringing McCutchen up almost certainly does not start the clock running for arbitration. Baltimore brought Weiters up this week. Philadelphia brought John Mayberry, Jr. up last Saturday (drafted 8 spots after McCutchen). Both of these teams know the Super 2 Rule as well or better than Huntington, and their GM’s wouldn’t want to risk the millions of dollars an extra year of arbitration would cost their owners. (Remember, the Super 2 rule has nothing to do with free agency, only arbitration.)
3. No one is running Morgan out of town. He’s had a good 2009 (for him) but he’s a limited, placeholder player. This year McCutchen will hit more HR than Morgan for sure and he’s still developing his power. The PBC’s biggest problem this year (and maybe last year) is that they have an astonishing lack of power, and Morgan has the least power on any non-pitcher on the 25-man roster.
4. Yahoo Sports ran an article y’day on which teams need to trade. Red Sox are looking for an OF, and Huntington might convince them that Morgan could be a Coco Crisp, Johnny Damon kinda guy. I think Dodgers need another OF, but they may be embarrassed to trade with PBC, since Morgan would be a replacement for Delwyn Young. (Article also talks about Mets and Red Sox looking at 1B, Rays need a 2B (though they are hard to deal with), and that Jack Wilson has “attracted interest..”
5. Bringing up McCutchen moves McLouth out of CF. I don’t care what the stats show, the Cubs were laughing at the PBC at where they were playing Morgan a couple days ago. If Morgan has to play in virtual CF, it’s not helping the team. McCutchen can take over in CF (Morgan doesn’t have the arm or instincts for CF), and move McLouth to a legitimate LF position.
6. What’s McCutchen gotta do to get to the “show?” Huntington’s basically BS arguments in March when McCutchen got sent down (work on his bunting?) have all been taken care of. The guy’s got nothing more to prove in AAA. (His power numbers, while still weak, will come with time. Unless PBC wants him to play another couple years in AAA, that’s no reason to keep him down on the farm.) If you don’t bring him up now, I am afraid he’ll be kept in AAA until next year at this time — but if you look at 2005 MLB draft, a lot of the first round are in the MLB, not just most recent call-up John Mayberry, Jr. (Biggest shock to me is Craig Hansen, a 1st round compensatory pick for Dodgers signing of Derek Lowe.) Some 2005 1st rounders are even leading vote getters for this year’s all star game (Ryan Braun).
It’s McCutchen’s time — as was pointed out above it’s basically insane to let Morgan block McCutchen.
PBC should get what it can get for Morgan. Maybe put him together with Mario and ship them to Boston — Epstein (together with every Red Sox fan and ESPN) is certain that he pwned PBC last year so he should be eager for another trade.
Goldstein at BP is on it too
Biding his time
Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates (Triple-A Indianapolis)
Wednesday’s stats: 3-for-4, 2B, HR (3), 2 R, 2 RBI, SB
The Pirates are going to have a minor house cleaning this summer. Not in any huge way, but guys like Jack Wilson, John Grabow, and Adam Laroche could all be moving elsewhere. When that happens, the new youth movement might begin with McCutchen, who is hitting .293/.353/.489 in his second go-around at Triple-A while showing a much better approach, far better contact skills and an overall feel for the game that says he’s big league ready.
And here’s what he said about Brad Lincoln in chat:
Joel (Washington, DC): Brad Lincoln: back to being a possible rotation mainstay for the Pirates?
Kevin Goldstein: Most definitely. The scouting reports are very impressive.
Optimism.
Agree completely
McCutchen shouldn’t be blocked, and to be honest, while I know money and arbitration are big concerns for the Pirates, I think if Cutch plays to the ability he’s expected of him the Bucs will do what’s necessary to sign him longterm, no matter how much that may cost them. I mean if he is as good as advertised, their not gonna just let him walk away.
Next, it’s been my belief all season that it’s good to see Morgan playing/hitting well, because like you note if not alone maybe he can be dispensed in a package that returns us a 1B or SS vet or top prospect.
I’m not sold on the “power” that Moss is supposed to have. Where is it? Practice doesn’t count. So why care about Moss losing ABs to a star to be like Cutch? And who says having two leadoff hitters is a bad thing. Just a few years ago the Marlins won a world series with Pierre and Castillo leading off the lineup. They beat the Yankees with that lineup!
Last, I also agree that he’s old enough, I too noticed how quickly some of the top prospects in other team like LAD (Kershaw), and Detroit (Pocello), among others have been brought up to give them a try, so that arguement is just stupid.
by Pensburgh Pirates on May 28, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions
WstCst
“Red Sox are looking for an OF, and Huntington might convince them that Morgan could be a Coco Crisp, Johnny Damon kinda guy.”
Someone would definitely have to slip some cuckoo into Epstein’s Cocoa Puffs for him to even consider Morgan to be a Coco Crisp-type player and give us a nice return.
You got me there
But you could hardly try and convince Theo Epstein that Nyjer Morgan is a Manny Ramirez, Jason Bay or J.D. Drew kinda guy. :)
Coco Crisp is lifetime .277/.332/.409. Nyjer Morgan is lifetime .292/.355/.382. That’s .741 versus .737 in lifetime OPS. Selling BS as top shelf pate is what GM’s are supposed to do.
Last year, somehow Huntington managed to convince Brian Cashman that Xavier “Disabled List” Nady’s first 4 months of 2008 defined his ability. And like I said, Epstein has gotta be confident that he can take Huntington’s lunch money anytime he wants — maybe he’s overconfident?
If PBC bookended Morgan with Adam LaRoche - Epstein is looking for a David Ortiz Plan B backup, and yahoo reports Nick Johnson is the prime candidate - that’d be enuff for a good prospect.
Sorry
If you see a strikeout, it’s from the system, not me!
it doesn’t like phrases separated by — apparently.
WstCst
Crisp has played regularly in the majors since 2003-about 830 games-with postseason experience, and was a legitimate CF the last time I checked.
Nyj has about 130 games of big league experience, and plays an “entertaining” LF.
Crisp will be 30 in November, Nyj turns 29 in July.
We’re talking about Theo Epstein, not Dave Littlefield.
I’ve never thought much about Brian Cashman’s ability as a GM. I think his huge payroll gives increased room for error, and err he does.
I tipp my hatt to patthatt
…plays an "entertaining" LF.
Nail + head = YOU.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on May 28, 2009 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Don't disagree with anything you say
There’s no one more down on Morgan than me. Just saying that Epstein’s looking for a backup OF and a 1B and the PBC has both.
Epstein makes mistakes, too. The Edgar Renteria and Doug Mirabelli signings (he himself admits these are mistakes), his first couple bullpens, trading Bronson Arroyo for Willy Mo Pena (Epstein’s also publicly called this a mistake).
Epstein is just a guy — I think he made a mistake thinking he could sign Bay to an extension. Instead he just rented him from the PBC for 1 year, 2 months.
i don’t think Nyjer Morgan will ever be Coco Crisp. I don’t think Theo Epstein will ever be Dave Littlefield. But I don’t think Neal Huntington will ever be Dave Littlefield, either.
John Mayberry...
…isn’t exactly a franchise-type player. He might turn into a 4th OF, but he’s not the kind of guy where service time is ever going to be an issue.
I don’t follow Philly prospects myself (thank God).
But a couple guys who do (and I sorta trust) think Mayberry could be a R-R compliment to Ryan Howard and a 30-30 guy for the Phillies pretty soon.
And you don’t gotta be anywhere near a franchise player to get millions and millions of dollars in arbitration — as much as I wish it were otherwise.
That's nice
That’s a nice piece. I think Adam L. will get traded at some point considering we couldn’t work out a long term deal last year with him.
Jack Wilson has said that he’d like to stay here and keep playing. Whether he gets traded is anyone’s guess considering he’s been discussed every year for the last two years. I particularly enjoy his defense and his enthusiasm for the game. On top of that, I still don’t see any real viable alternative at SS other than Bixler who has shown he doesn’t quite have the range of Wilson. Is there someone in AAA or AA who could replace him? Value wise I don’t know how much you’d get for him considering his offense and age.
Grabow is having a slightly down year this year. He has been letting more inherited runners score compared to last year. But I think he’ll be good trade bait. So it will be interesting to see what we can get for him.
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