What the "Snell" is Wrong With Him?

by Illinois Pirate Fan on May 28, 2009 10:44 AM EDT Comment 33 comments

I have dilligently watched all of Snell's last 3 starts and it seems to me that he has very little movement on his slider and even less on his fastball making all of his pitches easy to see and even easier to hit. I don't remember him having this problem several years ago when he first broke in but then I wasn't looking for this. I can't help but compare his pitches to others with similar style and believe that this has to be his problem.

It further seems like all of his pitches are between 87-93 mph with very little change in velocity. As a result, when you combine pitches with similar speed with those with very little movement it becomes apparent as to why batters have such great success against him. Has anybody else noticed this?

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According to Fangraphs...

…his pitches are all right around where they’ve been in the past in terms of velo. FB this year averages 91.4 (career average is 92.3), slider is 84.5 (career 83.7), curve is 81.0 (career 80.6), change is 84.1 (average is 84.2). Slight drop in FB there, and slight bump in the slider, but at less than 1 MPH for each it’s probably not statistically significant.

When Snell struggles, in my experience, it’s usually related to one of two things: problems locating the change, and problems controlling the break on his curve. I don’t know whether either (or both) is in play here.

by Vlad on May 28, 2009 12:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

He’s a headcase and he sucks. Period.

by mspirate on May 28, 2009 2:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

How long is his leash?

We have Gorzo and D. McCutchen in the wings. I think they would be a touch better. Does he have any options left for AAA? He may need to go down (aka Gorzo) to work on his stuff.

by vanslyke on May 28, 2009 2:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Reluctantly agree

His comments also seem to indicate a lack of… accountability on his part. And at this point, being sent down is more than a message about attitude. He’s just not getting enough guys out, period.

by azibuck on May 28, 2009 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I couldn't agree more on his accountability issues

He ALWAYS has someone or something to blame for his poor performances other than himself. He also is a hothead. He doesn’t go off like Zambrono did but he lets it screw up his game. He had to have Doumit get in his face vs the Mets to finally calm him down. I’m kind of wandering if maybe he is turning into a clubhouse disrupter type who could eventually be a cancer.

by gorillakilla34 on May 28, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Trade Snell?

If Snell is this self destructive type of person who can’t accept blame for his own mistakes, can Pittsburgh plan on even getting anything for him in a trade?

I think that’s a bigger concern. Duke has shown that he’s willing to be accountable for himself, by giving us a career year, but where Duke has accelled, Snell has not. He can’t seem to get his head into the game. A problem, since I think the PBC had made it kind of clear a year ago that accountability is part of the new MO – hence, contracts for Maholm, Doumit, and McLouth following productive seasons.

I’d love for Pit to keep Duke, now that he seems to have gotten a hold of his old stuff, but Snell has got to go. A demotion is not going to be useful. I expect with his attitude he’ll think its the PBC that’s to blame, and he may never recover, or will just be disruptive unltil they trade or cut him.

by Pensburgh Pirates on May 28, 2009 4:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Remember when everybody last year...

…was running around screaming about how Duke was destroying the rotation and Duke was a problem and we had to get rid of Duke right that minute?

This is the same thing, only with a different guy.

by Vlad on May 28, 2009 6:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, but… but… it’s Snell, dude! Totally diff – …um… Gorzo should be… ah…

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on May 28, 2009 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yea you're right.

I guess everyone has their player they don’t like. Some hate Mario. Some hate Moss. I dislike Snell.

by gorillakilla34 on May 28, 2009 9:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't get me wrong though...

I’m not calling for his head (atleast I don’t think I have) like some do with Mario or Moss. He has showed he has the stuff to be a great pitcher and possibly the leader of our staff. I guess I’m just really disappointed in him. He seems like the only starter who hasn’t made an effort to improve under Kerrigan. He has gone back to not pitching inside again, constantly shakes off the catchers, loses his cool on the mound almost every game, ect…

by gorillakilla34 on May 28, 2009 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Options

Last year, there was no alternative. I’m not saying cut Snell, but this year at least there are a couple guys that might not do any worse than Snell is now. Last year that wasn’t the case.

by azibuck on May 28, 2009 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

There's a difference between...

…“likely to do better” and “might not do any worse”.

If we’re only interested in not doing any worse than Snell, we can just stick with Snell, since he can’t be any worse than himself. Right?

We’re going to need some of that depth further down the road, anyway. Not trying to jinx anything, but purely from demographics it’s likely that at least one of our starters will end up on the DL for a significant stretch this year.

by Vlad on May 29, 2009 2:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm looking deeper I guess

I don’t want to go through a bunch of esoterica in a blog comment, but if Snell has development or refinement to make, he doesn’t sound like he’s making it in Pgh. I trust this FO, and for that matter, the coaching staff in regards to preparation. So I’ll defer to them. Snell has been somewhat less horrific this year than Gorzo was before he got sent down last year. And Gorz didn’t go down until after his July 4 start. But Snell is in that territory, and his attitude seems to match.

I don’t know that sending him down or sending him to the pen or keeping him in the rotation is “the” answer. But he’s made 111 big league starts, and he hasn’t really produced in any meaningful way the last 40 or so. I’m interested in his performance, not just doing something for the sake of doing something. I just think sending him down is one viable option (if he can even be sent down, I don’t even know).

by azibuck on May 29, 2009 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A key point:

“Snell has been somewhat less horrific this year than Gorzo was before he got sent down last year. And Gorz didn’t go down until after his July 4 start. But Snell is in that territory, and his attitude seems to match.”

Some of us-including myself-were very tough on Zach Duke during the course of a couple awful seasons, but I don’t ever remember Duke blaming anyone else for his troubles on the field, including players and coaches.(Did he ever trash Colborn?) I’ve also never heard any negative remarks from Duke’s teammates the last few years about him on or off the field.

Gorzo may not be the swiftest dude around, but it seems like he is finally listening to the organization and taking his job seriously this year. I haven’t heard about him pissing off his teammates either. He knows he was out of shape last year. It was his fault.

But Snell has not only been mediocre most of his time in Pittsburgh, he has demonstrated time and again he’s an A#1 arse. If he doesn’t start to get his emotions under control and perform better on the mound, it’s going to be tough for the team to keep him around after this season.

I’m not ready to give up on him yet, but he’s got a helluva lot of room for improvement.

by patthatt on May 29, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Zach Duke never complained?

Nobody else remembers this?

by Vlad on Jun 1, 2009 8:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's not what patthatt said

don’t ever remember Duke blaming anyone else for his troubles on the field

Duke’s comments were after his spectacular rookie year, before the 2006 season, and had no relation to performance.

by azibuck on Jun 1, 2009 9:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pat said that he didn't remember...

…Duke complaining about his coaches. So it was on-point.

by Vlad on Jun 1, 2009 9:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wasn't thinking about McClendon

because he didn’t even finish the 2005 season, and Zach had an abundance of success the last few months of that season. But thanks for reminding me of why I disliked McClendon as PBC manager so much.

My reference to Colborn was that, after I joined here, you guys got me to follow the line of thinking that he and Tracy really derailed Zach’s progress by screwing with his mechanics, but I couldn’t recall Zach going off on others to blame them for his troubles, which is something Ian Snell seems to do on a regular basis, even during game action.

I respect Zach’s perseverance and I think Snell could learn a thing or two from Zach’s experiences, if he’d stop blaming others constantly.

by patthatt on Jun 1, 2009 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

From what I recall...

…Duke bent over backwards to not complain about Colborn. Which was pretty decent of him, all things considered.

That said, I think that Duke’s decline under Colborn had more to due with the state of the defense behind him (plus a should’ve-been-expected regression in some areas where he’d been lucky) than with any mechanical thing, so maybe he was just being honest.

by Vlad on Jun 1, 2009 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh for God's sake

by azibuck on Jun 1, 2009 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Azibuck

I don’t think our GM has gotten enough credit for picking up guys like Virgil Vazquez, Eric Hacker, and Steven Jackson to go along with the three pitchers we got in the Nady/Marte deal.

We have alternatives and things look a little brighter for the long season, instead of dreading the next call-up of some loser when DL was running the franchise into the ground.

by patthatt on May 28, 2009 10:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Surely you can’t mean JVB?

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on May 28, 2009 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed on NH

You might be interested to know I have Ohlendorf in the BD fantasy league. I’m as happy as anyone he’s outperformed my “unimpressed” review of him in Indy last year. I still don’t think Karstens will be much long term, but he might be more useful than I thought after watching him in NYY.

by azibuck on May 29, 2009 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

cocktails

If you’re patient enough, you might be able to see JVB in Chicago later this summer. Then White Sox fans will be driven to drink….

by patthatt on May 28, 2009 11:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Shoot me now!

Hell, I couldn’t afford to go to any of the games this past week. I can’t see hitting up Coinstar to rustle up enough gelt to go see JVB at the Cell.

Heh.

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on May 28, 2009 11:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Vlad

Snell has had one good half in his career. While I am all for being patient, we are following the “he has so much potential” road that we did with Kip Wells. Snell has shown promising flashes and even put a great 1st half together in 2006. What he hasnt show is any type of consistency. Even Karstens is showing consistency and he is an expendable 5th starter three starts away from the bullpen.

While I may have prematurely called for a Snell demotion, I believe that we should give him the entire year barring injury. If he cannot put it together this year, then that is 3 consecutive years of substandard performance for his potential. At that point there will be 4 years of major league service and we will be able to determine from his track record what kind of player he has shown himself to be. At that point he will be 29. If we hold him to the same standard we are all holding NyMo to, then he will not be in the plans for the foreseable future when we compete and should therefore be expendable.

If you havent reached your potential after 4 full MLB seasons and you are approaching your 30’s – then the whole arguement about Snell’s future should be moot regardless of attitude, accountability, etc.

by vanslyke on May 29, 2009 9:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

vanslyke:

I agree that we must err on the side of caution and give Snell the remainder of the year to put his act together before we attempt to trade him. Statistics show that most pitchers reach their prime by 27 and so it seems that perhaps Snell is not going to mature in the manner in which we had hoped. My original intent in posting this note was to see if anyone else thought his pitches lacked movement and seemed flat. Vlad has demonstrated that lack of speed does not appear to be the issue here and so that would indicate a possible lack of movement might be the problem. That is assuming that he has the mindset to be a quality pitchers.

by Illinois Pirate Fan on May 29, 2009 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The "one good half thing" is somewhat misleading:

In three full seasons as a starter, Snell’s had one great half (first half 2007 – 2.93 ERA), one awful half (first half 2008 – 5.92), and four halves where he was right around a 4.75 ERA (both halves of 2006 – 4.74 and 4.75 respectively, and the second halves of 2007 and 2008 – 4.83 and 4.76 respectively).

Average NL SP performance was a 4.85 ERA in 2006, a 4.78 in 2007, and a 4.63 last year. So Snell has been average or better in five of his last six half-seasons, i.e. his entire time as a regular starter. As frustrating as he can be to watch, that’s really not that bad a track record.

by Vlad on May 29, 2009 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also, on development curves:

Pitchers often “break out” significantly later than hitters, so Nyjer to Ian isn’t an apples-to-apples comparison.

by Vlad on May 29, 2009 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Speaking of Accountability

How bout that fat cat Nate. Gets the contract and then forgets how to hit. Average in going South in a hurry….

by long4willie on May 30, 2009 1:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, he’s sucking right now, but I think it’s just a rough patch for him. He’ll get it going again soon . Once again, another example of one player’s struggles getting magnified because of how bad our lineup is as a whole. Lord, if he could get some help. Anybody else besides McLouth and Sanchez want to drive in a run or get a hit. Andy has started to be consistent, but as a whole, the lineup is putrid right now.

by mspirate on May 30, 2009 1:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs