Delwyn
by omar moreno on May 4, 2009 9:38 AM EDT
42 comments
I hate to post about benching a player, and do not take this as more hate towards Brandon Moss. I personally just think that we should give Delwyn Young a few starts this week in right. He is a solid prospect. He is a good player that was just stuck behind people in LA. The only reason Moss is out there everyday is because management wants him to prove the Bay trade wasn't that bad. I'm not going to get into that trade, but I just don't think Moss belongs in the starting lineup right now. He is a decent player and wouldn't mind him pinch hitting at all, but I want to see Delwyn get some AB's.
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Agreed
I am by no means ready to give up on Moss, I like the potential he shows but who knows what Young may be able to give us. It can’t hurt to give him a chance. Moss has been getting a couple days off anyway, why not give Delwyn those stars instead of Hinske who won’t be here after this year. Its worth a shot…
Well...
“The only reason Moss is out there everyday is because management wants him to prove the Bay trade wasn’t that bad.”
I don’t think that’s the only reason he’s being run out there, though I wouldn’t argue the point. Team managements tend to want “prospects” received in big deals to be given ample opportunity to prove themselves.
As someone else pointed out here, Moss has historically been an AdLaRoche-esque performer in April. In 2005 and 2006 with Portland he hit .206 and .178 respectively. So, perhaps they are waiting to see if he can turn it around given his history of slow starts.
In any case, it’s been rare for the Pirates to give a guy this sort of opportunity, especially with so many other options, either on the Hinske/Monroe veteran side or Young/McCutch prospect side. I see no reason to abandon him just yet, as he has no more options and has to stick in order to keep him.
"this sort of opportunity"?
I don’t get this. He’s started 17/24 games. Through his first nine starts his OPS was .688. Not good, but not bench/release/demote horrific. He has therefore slumped over his last 9 games (8 starts). That’s 8 starts in the team’s last 12 games. This “opportunity” is not at all unprecedented.
Why don’t we look at Andrew McCutchen’s last 10 virtually walkless, powerless games?
Umm...
Not sure what you’re referring to. I was saying that it is rare for the Pirates to give a guy as many opportunities as they have given Moss. And yes, I get that it’s only been 24 games, but they were running him out as the #3 hitter recently… this despite not having a single hit with runner on so far this year.
I don’t know about unprecedented, but please, give me an example in the last 10 years of the Pirates giving a significant number of starts to a young player with little experience at the ML level, when there were veterans on the 25-man, as well as other prospects around.
I'm referring to this -- "as many opportunities"
I don’t know what you’re referring to. I just pointed out that while he’s the main starter, the Pirates, of late, are sitting him 1/3 of the time. You (and others) keep referring to this “opportunity” like the Pirates have started him 80 straight games. And as far as his batting 3rd, Nate and Doumit were hurt, and it’s not unprecedented for a manager to show a player his confidence by putting him in an important position in the lineup even while he’s scuffling. Why focus on such a small situation?
I’m also pointing out how short this slump really has been.
2007 Ronny Paulino — 18/24 starts to begin season. OPS never above .548. He went on to start 62 of first 88 games, OPS .627
2006 Chris Duffy — 17/24 starts to begin the season. OPS never above .579.
2004 Tike Redman — 24/24 starts. OPS deleted because they would break the internet.
2005 Redman was allowed to start 59 more times.
This really isn’t all that puzzling. Moss has shown some ability. The Pirates are giving him a chance to show it, but it is far from a blank check chance. Moss is on pace for 113 starts. I don’t think that’s a super unlimited opportunity.
Alternatives
My preference is that they keep giving Moss the majority of the starts until he’s sufficiently proven that he’s not worthy of the job (if that finally is the case). What I want to change is who they give the other starts to when they sit Moss. I’d prefer they work Young into the lineup as a starter at least occasionally when they can. I can understand giving Hinske some starts sometimes, but I don’t think it serves any purpose to have Monroe starting ever.
Totally agree on Monroe
The Pirates got themselves into a pickle signing Monroe. They needed a righty off the bench, and the Pirate outfield was very lefty heavy with Morgan, Moss, McLouth and Hinske.
Delwyn Young is a switch-hitter, and has a history of power in the minors. Ideally., we never would have signed Monroe, and Young would be a default starter against left-handers. At $750k, Monroe would be less of a bust if they just let him go than Kim last year. Monroe has shown enough power that he might be moved at some point, but I don’t see it.
Or at least get him in the rotation at OF, 2B when Freddy rests
Hinske needs to play so he can eventually start a brawl/ have trade value
McLouth is The Trouth
Just a quick reminder:
Delwyn Young:
ZiPS 2009: .249/.297/.390
CHONE 2009: .262/.320/.429
Brandon Moss:
ZiPS 2009: .251/.312/.403
CHONE 2009: .267/.337/.435
Moss graded out as a significantly better hitter coming into the season, according to most machine projections, and based on the small available samples, he’s also a better glove. No point in getting carried away by a slow start and a shiny new toy on the roster.
Well I’d rather have Moss out there than Young all things considered but I’d rather see Young get a start than Monroe or Hinske as others have alluded to.
At some point I wanna see what the shiny new toy can do.
I made most of my life decisions at a Foghat concert... I stand by them.
by Chester J Lampwick on May 4, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Who cares?
Now we’re going by machine projections and samples? What’s next…Is baseball going to go BCS on us and let computers decide who plays in the World Series? None of that stuff matters between the lines. Get somebody in there that can produce right now. Whether it be Hinske, Monroe, or Young; I don’t care.
stop the machines!
stop using projections based on real data! let’s let every joe baseballfan shout their preferences on a blog and follow that!
Having a good machine projection...
…is just a long-winded (and scientifically rigorous) way of saying that Moss outhit Young by a significant amount over the last several years in the minors, and as such is probably the better player.
A lot of the people pulling for starts for Young really need to take a look at his park factors. His AAA numbers were coming in a real launching pad.
Brandon Moss
is struggling, so let’s dump him and start Delwyn Young, who obviously would be better with more ABs and OF time because …?
Brandon Moss is no good, so let’s DFA someone from the 40-man roster and bring up Garrett Jones because he would undoubtedly be better at the plate and in the OF because…?
Give Brandon Moss a chance. No, we shouldn’t allow him to become the Bay trade success poster boy like Ryan Vogelsong was with the Schmidt one-and I don’t think Huntington/Coonelly are that stupid.
Brandon Moss, Andy LaRoche, and Craig Hansen need more time to prove one way or the other if they are part of our long-term future or not.
Patience, please.
We ought to be happy to see the PBC sitting at .500 a month into the season. Most of us realistically expected much worse.
i dont know if that was towards me or the other commenters
but i am NOT saying we should send Moss down at all. I would just like to see Young get a few more at bats. Thats it. And I can come right back at you and say… so Young u think would be so much worse than Moss why? He hasn’t done anything
I GOT MY STREET BUZZ BEFORE I GOT MY PEACH FUZZ
Moss has a better track record in the past.
As such, I think he’ll end up as the better player this year.
well said omar! Vlad, Brandon Moss doesn’t have a track record. He couldn’t bust through with the Red Sox, he hit in the .210-.220 range in 3 months with the Pirates last year, and now he’s at .197 a month into this season! If he has a track record at all, it’s a terrible one.
Actually last year they had the same batting average (.246) with Moss having about 100 more plate appearances and Moss hit for more power (.436 slg v. .341 slg).
I made most of my life decisions at a Foghat concert... I stand by them.
by Chester J Lampwick on May 4, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions
He still doesn’t have much of a track record in the majors. Sure, he had some good minor league numbers, but it clearly hasn’t translated over to the bigs at any point in his big league career. The guy has struggled to stay over .200 and he’s just not very good right now.
Given a reasonable PT sample...
…minor league numbers translate to the majors with almost the same accuracy as past major league numbers.
People have studied it to death. Whether you like it or not, agree with it or not, it is what it is.
Brandon Moss has a fairly extensive track record.
He’s currently in his eighth professional season. Almost 800 games, and more than 2,800 at-bats. Most of it is in the minors, but minor league performances from AA and AAA track very well with ML performance, once you adjust them properly.
If you don’t think that a player’s minor league performance is relevant in an evaluation of his ability, you’re going to struggle to evaluate players.
I wasn't directing my comments at you,
Omar.
I like Brandon Moss’s swing. I can’t say anything about it by the numbers that’s positive so far, but I just think he has a chance to be a solid hitter. Time will tell, so let’s give him a fair chance.
Delwyn Young may well get his chance to play more in a couple of weeks if Moss continues to struggle, but I bet we’d find out after not too long there are reasons-offensively and defensively-why the Dodgers thought of him as a pinch-hitter, and an expendable one at that.
How much more needs to be said about Craig Monroe’s career, and, more specifically, his past 2 or 3 seasons, before it sinks in that we don’t want him playing regularly? Why give a ton of ABs to a guy who very probably won’t be around next year anyway? We need to find guys who can play for us for the next several years.
For those who call for Garrett Jones: What player should be removed from the 40-man roster to give him a chance in Pittsburgh?
With the bullpen we have and the lack of power in the everyday lineup, our chances of hovering around the .500 mark much longer are pretty slim, so let’s keep our focus on 2011/12 when we hope to have a better chance of winning more than we lose.
Of course I’m hoping for an improved record this year, but today sure was a downer.
Brandon Moss can not be "sent down"
He lacks options. he would have to pass through waivers, and i don’t think he would.
DK Notebook
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/09125/967673-63.stm?cmpid=pirates.xml
Last bullet: Russell said he would like to get utilityman Delwyn Young his first start soon — he has has yet to make one since being acquired April 17 — and hinted it might be at second base. Infield instructor Perry Hill told Russell Young could be ready to play that position as early as tonight.
I think this is finally starting to make sense to me. I couldn’t understand why NH had coveted Delwyn Young for so long, had almost brought him here in a Jack Wilson trade, and yet he hasn’t gotten a single start in RF yet. Well, duh! They see him as Freddy Sanchez’s replacement once he gets traded… and I think that’s a brilliant idea! They don’t want him starting in the outfield because they don’t see him there long term. Tell him he’s a 2B or nothing (PH/PR) and watch him work to get there.
We have too many options for the OF right now.
It'd be a brilliant idea...
…if he could play 2B. I don’t think he can – we’d do just as well to run Pearce out there.
Wrong. And for exactly the reason you want to keep him – he’s above average and could actually bring us something in return.
I don’t know. I hope they don’t trade Sanchez. He’s our best pure hitter and I think he could give us 3-4 more good years. We can get good prospects in return for LaRoche, Wilson, or even Grabow. Regardless of who they trade, they better get some big league players in return. I know they want to get some prospects with their trade, but they also need to get some players that are ready to play in the majors right now.
What are you talking about? He had one bad season because of an injury. Every other year, he’s been a hitting machine. As long as he stays healthy, he can be a good player for the next 4-5 years.
Second basemen generally age faster...
…than any other position except catchers, and their dropoff is often quite sudden. Just look at how quickly Robbie Alomar went from stud to scrub, for example. And Freddy has a number of persistent medical issues: the club feet, the shoulder, the ankle that was operated on in 2004. And of course, projecting ANY player to be healthy and productive at 35/36 is a very aggressive forecast.
You’re rather glibly writing off all of those red flags, and I just don’t see any justification for it.
What the heck do his club feet and ankle have to to with anything?!? His clubbed feet and ankle haven’t stopped him from from hitting over .300 every year and winning a batting title. His shoulder has. His shoulder is his only relevant injury, and it looks to be heatlhy early on this season. Club feet and ankle? Why even bring those up?
Look at the last star-level 2B produced by the Pirates:
Johnny Ray was a fairly similar type of hitter to Freddy. High-contact, good average, doubles power, didn’t walk overmuch. He was at least a minor star: made an All-Star roster, won a Silver Slugger, finished second in ROY voting.
In Ray’s age-31 season, he hit .306/.345/.429, good for a 119 OPS+. The raw line is virtually identical to Freddy’s 2007, and the context-neutral part is exactly the same as his 2006. You could drop it into Freddy’s career, and it wouldn’t look out of place at all.
There were probably some people who figured that Ray would be a solid starter for four or five more years. In reality, he was done as a starter after his age-33 season, where he hit .277/.308/.371 for the Angels, got released, and went to Japan for one last season after he couldn’t find a regular job in MLB.
Illustrated decline for some other recent 2Bs:
Chuck Knoblauch, 30: .292/.393/.454, 118 OPS+
Chuck Knoblaugh, post-30: .251/.335/.350 in 1221 AB, 78 OPS+, two more seasons as a starter – one average, one bad.
Steve Sax, 31: .304/.345/.414, 110 OPS+
Steve Sax, post-31: .237/.287/.315 in 710 AB, 69 OPS+, one more (bad) year as a starter.
Fernando Vina, 32: .303/.357/.418, 100 OPS+
Fernando Vina, post-32: .260/.324/.341 in 996 AB, 77 OPS+, one more (bad) year as a starter.
Bill Doran, 32: .300/.411/.434, 135 OPS+
Bill Doran, post-32: .254/.345/.355 in 808 AB, 96 OPS+, two more partial years as a starter (averaging 120 games/year over the pair due to injuries).
Then, of course, you have all the 2Bs who didn’t even last until 30 as productive regulars. Edgardo Alfonzo. Carlos Baerga. Marcus Giles. Quilvio Veras… the position eats you up. There are a few minor stars who remain productive into their mid/late 30s (Eric Young, Ray Durham, etc.), but they’re the exception rather than the rule.
Vlad
Ok man, I get your point. How long did it take you to look all of those stats up? A simple “Second baseman age quicker and I don’t think he will be good in 3-4 years” would’ve been fine. You didn’t have to go to the extreme with it. I just think him, McLouth and Doumit are good pieces to build around, and I don’t think Freddy will end up like any of those players you gave examples of. I’m not going to ignore the stats, but I think Freddy is different. I think he will be very productive for 3-4 more years.
lumberco
Vlad’s points to you about 2B players have been discussed many times on BD the past few years.
Like I said before, if you would take the time to get to know people here and listen a bit, you would learn something about baseball.
Do you realize that many people pay for information that Charlie, Vlad, Wilbur and some others do a superior job writing about here?
We discussed this a few weeks ago, SloshyJ
And from what I read from the knowledgeable ones here, it doesn’t sound like he’ll do anything but hurt us defensively at 2B, and perhaps get himself killed in the process on a double play pivot. But if Russell wants him out there, it’s his business, and at least he has a top-notch infield instructor in Hill teaching Young how to attempt to survive.
I still maintain that we need to keep Freddy and Jack through 2010 til we hopefully have other internal options for the 2011 season. I doubt we could get suitable replacements in return for trades of them.
Isn’t it enough to recall the horrors we lived through last year with clowns like Rivas and Bixler? With the pitching staff we have, there will be more horrors without a solid 2B/SS combo.
But some say it’s time for a change! Brian Bixler and Delwyn Young to the rescue. And while we’re at it, Craig Monroe, Steve Pearce, and Garrett Jones should be everyday players, too. The 1985 Pirates in 2009!
The “P” on the players’ caps should stand for patience for a couple of years while we build a solid core for a truly competitive team next decade.
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