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Around SBN: Jeremy Lin Continues Rampage, New York Wins On Road

News Roundup: Relief Shuffle

Thanks to everyone for keeping up with things in the diaries. I spent the weekend in DC where I didn't use a computer for almost three days, so that was wonderful. But updates should be regular this week.

-P- As poorboywilly recently noted, the Pirates have placed Donnie Veal on the DL with a "groin strain" that will surely take the maximum amount of minor league time to rehabilitate. The Post-Gazette reports that new acquisition Steven Jackson will likely join the roster today, and that someone else, perhaps Chris Bootcheck, will join the roster later in the week so that Tom Gorzelanny can be sent back down to continue starting. Neal Huntington describes the Veal move as "admittedly an aggressive placement on the DL," which is unusually honest for him, and unusually brazen. He's pretty much admitting he's flaunting the rules that allow the Bucs to keep Veal in the minors to "rehab" his injury, despite Veal's being a Rule 5 pick. Not that I mind; this is exactly what Huntington should do. I'm just not sure why he's admitting it.

-P- The same article notes quotes Huntington saying that "Some of our defensive metrics right now have Nyjer Morgan as the best outfielder in baseball." I'm not sure what internal defensive metrics the Pirates have, but it's not just them. Morgan actually has the highest UZR of any player--not outfielder, but player--in baseball right now. UZR has him at +11.8 runs, which pretty much cancels out any offensive shortcomings you'd care to name. (Say what you want about his sparkpluginess, but a .702 OPS generally doesn't get it done for a corner outfielder.) The best defensive corner outfielder by UZR last year was Carl Crawford, who finished at 19.6 runs.

I know speed is an extremely important factor in good outfield defense, and Morgan has always had plenty of that. But I've been very pleasantly surprised at the way he's become more than just a burner out there. He's played left very intelligently this year, and it's hard to remember instances in which he looked raw. Last year, it seemed like there was one of those every game. Morgan deserves some major credit for really learning things at a relatively late baseball age.

-P- I got to listen the Friday and Sunday games this weekend on satellite radio, and while they were mostly pretty dreary (you can add Edwin Maysonet to the list of anono-bots sent by evil forces to kill the Pirates), it was interesting to hear that Andy LaRoche was batting second. Based on what he's done so far--he had a .379 OBP before today--that's a really good spot for him. Craig Monroe batting cleanup, though?

-P- Jim Tracy is the Rockies' interim manager now

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Defensive metrics.

Since they hired Dan Fox as a stat consultant a while back, I’d guess that it’s a proprietary version of his work in that area.

by Vlad on Jun 1, 2009 8:31 AM EDT reply actions  

Cmon Charlie

I couldn’t even get a little shout out for my Jim Tracy post?

I GOT MY STREET BUZZ BEFORE I GOT MY PEACH FUZZ

by omar moreno on Jun 1, 2009 8:32 AM EDT reply actions  

Aw, man, I’m sorry. I didn’t even see it.

by Charlie Wilmoth on Jun 1, 2009 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

its cool

haha im just messin around

I GOT MY STREET BUZZ BEFORE I GOT MY PEACH FUZZ

by omar moreno on Jun 1, 2009 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

It's anecdotal, but...

Nyjer looked like a junior varsity player on a few balls in CF on Saturday night.

Maybe he just gets nervous in the high profile CF position? (Kidding…kinda).

by hisjazziness on Jun 1, 2009 9:00 AM EDT reply actions  

But ...

Brandon Moss’s UZR/150 is actually better than Morgan’s. He apparently doesn’t have enough PAs to qualify (he must be real close), but if he did, he’d be between Kemp and Hardy, near the top of the list.

This is me ducking while everyone throws things at me and alleges a deep-seated, irrational hatred of Nyjer Morgan, sunshine, and ice cream.

http://www.whygavs.com
http://mlb.fanhouse.com

by whygavs on Jun 1, 2009 10:27 AM EDT reply actions  

It's PA-related...

…but not a hard cap. I think he’s just using UZR-to-date rather than UZR/150, and thus Nyjer’s big edge in PT gives him more aggregage value.

by Vlad on Jun 1, 2009 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

Oh, I know. I’m just pointing out that Morgan’s defense isn’t even really necessarily a reason to keep playing him when McCutchen comes up.

http://www.whygavs.com
http://mlb.fanhouse.com

by whygavs on Jun 1, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

Dejan mentioned in his chat...

that the Bucs’ philosophy is to have LF and CF cover most of the outfield at PNC in case they one day sign an imobile slugger for RF duty.

I’m not really sure how UZR works. Has Morgan’s rating been bolstered by the extra ground he’s been asked to cover, or is it likely that Moss has benefited from a reduced RF?

by RDV across the sea on Jun 1, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

There are instructions...

…for an old version of it at Primer (Part1, Part2).

Very old versions weren’t park-corrected, but the new builds should be.

by Vlad on Jun 1, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

This is the same system that said Nate was a terrible CF, I believe “worst in baseball” This year it has him slightly below the middle ahead of guys like Aaron Rowand, Ellsbury, Fowler, Victorino and apparently Carlos Beltranis the 4th worst CF in baseball.

Obviously I’m not a huge fan.

McLouth is The Trouth

by GTrain on Jun 1, 2009 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

The difficulty there...

…is that Nate spends a lot of time playing outside of the typical CF’s zone. If they position him in very shallow CF, he’s going to get clipped for all the balls that drop in over his head (for doubles and triples, mostly). Thus, it’s a reflection more of defensive value than defensive ability – the two are often the same, but not always.

I do think that Nate’s ranking this year is fairly close to reality. He’s not a butcher, but I don’t think he really deserved that GG either (not that I’m complaining, mind).

The Beltran thing is odd. There’s some interesting speculation about the reason behind it here, and of course, the sample is still small enough that a handful of anomalous plays in the early going could be skewing the number.

by Vlad on Jun 1, 2009 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

And we can also assume...

that Nyjer spends a lot of time playing outside of the “typical” LF’s positioning as well. Safe to assume that there are more balls hit toward left center than there are down the LF line. Thus, Nyjer is seeing more opportunities, without having to be spectacular. And he would score well in that rating…since he is catching balls that most LF won’t get to.

While we aren’t seeing as many gappers…we are certainly seeing enough balls toward the left field line get to the ground to hurt the team. No defensive assessment is perfect. I think that Nyjer’s numbers are as much a function of positioning as they are speed.

by Thunder on Jun 1, 2009 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

You may be right, Thunder. This is probably something that people who see a lot of games in person can comment on more. I’ve only seen the Bucs in person once this year, but in that one game, Morgan was shaded very strongly toward left center, and the Bucs got burned badly on balls down the line, I think twice. This could partially explain why UZR is so gaga over him—because he’s getting to a lot of balls that are in Nate’s zone.

by Charlie Wilmoth on Jun 1, 2009 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

So an interesting question is if Nyjer is getting more “defensive value” by shifting to LCF, is the alignment actually a defensive improvement given our personnel rather than just another crazy JR novelty?

charity standing orders

by BadMaafala on Jun 2, 2009 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

Wow. It's not the easiest metric to fathom out.

As far as I can tell, any player instructed to cover more ground than the norm has a handicap due to them starting further away from some of the prescribed zones for their position.

I think the answer to my question above, is that none of this season’s Pirates outfielders have been helped by the obvious strategy of shading to their left (towards right field), although the chance of the RF being penalised is minimal due to the CF making occasional plays in his ‘area’.

I have a feeling that the park factors at PNC may have been altered this season due to Nate’s low UZR, Gold Glove season in 2008 and that is contributing somehow to these amazing fielding ratings.

Maybe someone with a lot more time and baseball knowledge than I could research this and explain it in layman’s terms. I think it’s going to be pretty important to the Buccos’ long term plans with regard to McLouth, Morgan, McCutchen and possibly Tabata, although it looks like they have a decent handle on it already.

by RDV across the sea on Jun 1, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Variance

I really can’t emphasize the sample size thing enough. MGL has said that you need at least a season’s worth of data on a player before you can even begin to draw semi-reliable conclusions about his actual level of ability (with three or four seasons, weighted, being much better).

by Vlad on Jun 1, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

I loved that. As if they have to play OF now according to a hypothetical roster in the future.

Also I was pumped when he answered my question about a Nate-Andy-Freddy lineup, even if it wasnt the answer I was hoping for.

McLouth is The Trouth

by GTrain on Jun 1, 2009 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Interestingly...looking at Nyjer's numbers...

he gets almost half of his UZR value…from his arm?? Which means he’s getting a lot of credit for hitting his cutoff man…which is how he’s gotten at least 3 of his 4 assists. Matt Holliday actually has a better range number than Morgan in LF. Who is dead last in UZR in LF Jason Bay…as well as worst arm.

A few guys with better “Range” numbers than Nyjer…Nelson Cruz…Eric Byrnes…Colby Rasmus…and Ichiro.

by Thunder on Jun 1, 2009 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

I could buy those.

Ichiro has been regarded as a defensive stud for a while now, Rasmus was described as a big plus glove coming up through the minors, and Byrnes has spent a fair bit of his career in CF (though I think he’s over his head so far this year).

Cruz is a little bit surprising to me, though I guess he shouldn’t be. His defensive numbers from past seasons were good, and he has enough speed to have stolen 27 bases last year. I guess I just didn’t think of him that way, because he had that rep as a AAAA slugger.

As for hitting the cutoff man, he probably is getting a bit much credit for it, but it’s not worthless. There are some guys (Vlad, I’m looking at you) who probably go weeks without putting a throw on line to the bag.

by Vlad on Jun 1, 2009 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree...

hitting the cutoff man has some worth to it…but his numbers appear to overplay what he has done with his arm.

by Thunder on Jun 1, 2009 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Fangraphs has a good post...

…about some of the stuff I’ve been preaching on Duke and defensive support: Link.

by Vlad on Jun 1, 2009 11:24 AM EDT reply actions  

I see that...if he had played enough games...

Jack would be 3rd in UZR at SS…behind JJ Hardy and Elvis Andrus. Yuniesky Betancourt?? Dead Last. I repeat…Dead Last. Yep…I can see why Seattle wants to get rid of him.

Around the rest of the diamond…
Freddy…below normal.
Adam…below normal.
Andy…right at normal.
Moss…as mentioned above…near the top…but not enough games to qualify.
Monroe and Delmon in RF…don’t ask.
Nate…as mentioned…near to slightly below normal.
Catchers…if taken as a whole…worse than every team except the Rangers.
Pitchers…Maholm and Duke…well above average…the rest of the starters…Snell and Ohlie…near average…Karstens…below average.

by Thunder on Jun 1, 2009 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Be careful on C and 1B numbers.

For both, range in the field doesn’t do as good a job of describing the totality of their defensive contributions as it does at other positions (more so for Cs than 1Bs, of course).

by Vlad on Jun 1, 2009 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree...

but if Pirates management is going to cherry pick stats to brag about Morgan…well…may as well use the same stats source to compare the rest.

by Thunder on Jun 1, 2009 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Also

anyone see that Augie Garrido — who has been coaching college baseball for what, 150 years? — let a kid throw 169 pitches in that 25-inning game Saturday? Hope it’s nobody we had on our draft radar, if he’s eligible. Let Littlefield have him.

Have the Rox hired Little Tracy yet?

by bucdaddy on Jun 1, 2009 1:07 PM EDT reply actions  

Not just any kid.

A relief pitcher, who’s probably used to throwing 30 or so a game.

by Vlad on Jun 1, 2009 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

The guy that threw the 169 pitches...

threw 30 in a relief appearance Friday night…then 169 Saturday night. He was a senior…so hopefully…the Pirates don’t draft him.

It’s safe to assume that we won’t be drafting any one from the Ohio State staff either…that gave up 24 runs to Georgia Friday night…and 37 to Florida State yesterday.

by Thunder on Jun 1, 2009 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well who do you want hitting clean-up against lefties? Adam LaRoche? NO! Eric Hinske? Maybe. Brandon Moss? Please. We don’t have many other options other than Monroe in the clean-up spot. He’s done an adequate job. Like I said, he gives us a viable power threat every time he’s in the lineup.

by mspirate on Jun 1, 2009 2:12 PM EDT reply actions  

Heh, awesome!

I hadn’t looked at Monroe’s line for a couple of days, but it’s dropped all the way down to his recent norms:

2009: .235/.278/.397 => .675
2008: .202/.274/.405 => .679
2007: .219/.268/.370 => .638

I said it over and over again in the spring, and I’ll say it one more time now: Stick a fork in him. He’s done.

by Vlad on Jun 1, 2009 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Or maybe a syringe....

full of delicious performance enhancers!

So you think 25 percent of the world is retarded!? Yea, totally. Atleast 25 percent. Well lets do a sample. There are 4 of us and you're retarded. Thats 25 percent. -South Park; Mystery of the Urinal Deuce.

by gorillakilla34 on Jun 1, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

I see Moss is sitting today.

With a righty (Livan Hernandez) pitching…and a lefty (Johan Santana) going tomorrow. Did Moss step into JR’s Chez le Bow Wow?

by Thunder on Jun 1, 2009 4:20 PM EDT reply actions  

Certainly seems like it...

Although no one can really make any sense out of JR’s lineups this year. And the reason he gives for benching him is because Hinske can handle Livan’s soft stuff better than Moss. Without checking, hasn’t everyone pretty much handled Livan’s soft stuff recently. At least he did say he believes in resting his starters and getting the bench players at bats. Although, he really doesn’t have to because his lineups have said it for him.

by Slick1 on Jun 1, 2009 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

We're not the only ones

questioning JR’s moves:

A small sampling of a small article:

… how many managers would voluntarily sit their hottest hitter when the use of the designated hitter allows another bat in the lineup?

And just how tired could the 25-year-old LaRoche be seven weeks into the season? His production certainly suggested his energy level was fine.

The Pirates got two hits in a 2-0 loss, and Russell complained about the lack of offense.

It’s only 8-10 paragraphs, but it says some of the things I’ve been thinking.

And NOW JR decides to go with the “hot hand” of Hinske, wh is 5-for-his-last-9?

I just don’t get it.

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Jun 1, 2009 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

link?

McLouth is The Trouth

by GTrain on Jun 1, 2009 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sorry.

linkee.

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Jun 1, 2009 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

linkee no workee first time.

?!?

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Jun 1, 2009 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Gorzo

I was looking on ESPN and saw that Gorzo is 3-1 this year in 6 IP. He won 6 games last year.

McLouth is The Trouth

by GTrain on Jun 2, 2009 10:16 AM EDT reply actions  

Pretty funny.

And also a good illustration of the general worthlessness of W/L records for pitchers.

by Vlad on Jun 2, 2009 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

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