This post is basically in response to the DK entry on the PG blog after the McClouth trade where he accused the front office of “moving the finish line.”  His basic premise is how are we going to achieve our goal if we continually trade away our “core” players?  I say “core” for a reason which will be covered in the closing of this post.  I’m going to make my point the loooong way.  I’m going to give an update of our top prospects and close with my point.  Enjoy and I look forward to your feedback.

*Note: The 1st nine prospects were taken from Baseball America’s top ten list.  Andrew McCutchen was left off because he has graduated to the majors and Morton is off for the same reason.  The other players are prospects having nice seasons so far that I’ve identified as having a role in the future of the organization.

P. Alvarez     High A  

.236/.335/.448     .738 OPS     10 HR     42 RBI

Pedro is striking out a ton but also still drawing a high number of walks.  The .738 OPS is unacceptable for a $6 million baby drafted #2 in the country that is counted on becoming a future impact player and superstar.  However, the walks combined with the 10 HR are reason to be optimistic that he will reach his ceiling.  Problem is Pedro is not going to get to the Burg as quickly as we all hoped.

ETA – 2011 (best case second half of 2010)     Prospect Stock – No change

J. Tabata     AA       

.242/.315/.288     .603 OPS     0HR     6 RBI

Tabata recently came back from a hamstring injury and was promptly removed from the game after going 0-2 because of tightness in the same hammy.  Tabata’s year has been extremely disappointing so far given his injury and his line to date.  I won’t even mention the off the field issues except to point out that it has raised questions about his age.  Jose is still young (hopefully) so it’s far too soon to give up on him but time is passing and each year that goes by his once Manny Ramirez-like ceiling gets lower and lower.  Hopefully the power develops soon because he is quickly moving from future impact prospect to league average OF.

ETA – 2011     Prospect Stock – Declining

B. Lincoln     AA

1.95 ERA     64.2 IP     60 K     15 BB     50 H     .215 avg.

Lincoln has been a bright spot in the organization by returning to form and dominating AA.  He’ll be called up to AAA any day now and if he continues to pitch as well as he is now he’ll have returned himself to impact prospect status.  He is definitely pitching like a front of the rotation starter.

ETA – 2010     Prospect Stock – Rising

B. Morris     High A

8.21 ERA    

It’s kind of useless at this point to put up any stats for Morris since he has only played in one game.  The scouting reports on Morris are really good.  He’s a high upside player but just can’t seem to stay on the field.   The best thing we can hope for is that he follows the recovery path that Lincoln has taken.  The important thing for Morris the rest of this year won’t be his numbers but that he stays on the field.

ETA – too soon to tell      Prospect Stock – No change

Neil Walker     AAA

.239/.304/.446     .750 OPS     7 HR     32 RBI    

Unfortunately Neil Walker is sidelined for 3 weeks to a thumb injury because I was really hoping he could get hot and turn his season around.  Hopefully he won’t be rusty after coming back from his injury because Walker has to show something this year.  He is still young for this level, and was rushed to AAA too soon by the previous administration, but Neil has yet to dominate any level.  His numbers this year look much like they did last year and they are very pedestrian at best.  He does not appear to be learning as it is obvious that he still believes that you cannot walk your way to the big leagues.  On the positive side he still shows some pop in his bat and has become a very good defender.  If Neil doesn’t finish the year strong and show some improvement he most likely will be in Indy at the start of next season.  This once promising prospect is now looking more like a very good utility player rather than an impact player.  I would not be surprised to see him working on other positions next year if he’s back in AAA.

ETA – 2011 (best case second half 2010)     Stock – Declining

Jeff Sues    AA

I’m not going to get into Sues stats and it has nothing to do with the fact that he is having a down year.  The point of this post is to identify potential cornerstone players in the organization and I don’t believe relief pitchers, even closers, qualify as cornerstone players.

S. Ford     AAA

.160/.199/.216     .4152 OPS     1 HR     16 RBI

Fords performance to date couldn’t have been any more disappointing, especially after having performed so well in spring training.  With our major league middle infielders constantly being involved in trade rumors I’m sure coming into the season that Neil Huntington believed Ford would be ready to replace Sanchez if he were traded.  Now we are probably looking at some undesirable combination of Bixler or Cruz.  This is Ford’s 1st time in AAA so it’s definitely not time to give up on him but I think I could step on the field right now and put up a better line than that.  He has been completely overwhelmed at AAA and that is not good.

ETA – too hard to tell right now (best case 2011)   Stock – Declining

D. McCutchen     AAA

4.38 ERA     61.2 IP     56 K     19 BB     63 H     .265 avg.

McCutchen’s line this year looks a lot like last year.  He will be 27 this season so what you see with Dan is what you get.  His numbers suggest that he may be a serviceable major leaguer performing a role much like the one that Karstens is performing right now.  Definitely not an impact player but has a chance to be useful.

ETA – 2010 (best case second half of 2009)     Stock – No change

R. Grossman     A

.279/.366/.365     .732 OPS     2 HR    16 RBI     19/22 SB

Grossman has been a pleasant surprise in that he is performing pretty well given his age.  Grossman, as everyone is well aware, is one of the high upside players in last year’s draft who was lured away form college.  His performance gives us hope the Huntington’s team has an eye for talent evaluation.  I’m excited to see what Quentin Miller and Wes Freeman can bring to the table.

ETA – 2013 (best case 2012)     Stock – Rising

G. Hernandez     AA

.293/.337/.356     .693 OPS     0 HR     20 RBI     10/19 SB

This is an interesting player.  Many scouts seem to think Gorky’s will develop some power which would be nice because right now he looks like a little better version of Nyjer Morgan.  Hernandez’s numbers are down this year in part to hamstring injury he suffered so hopefully that has something to do with the low OPS and horrible stolen base %.  If you listen to Neil, Hernandez is very much a part of the future of this organization.  He is supposed to be an outstanding defender with plus speed.  If his power develops he may be an Andrew McCutchen light (little less pop).  Hopefully he can return to form soon because he’s been terrible so far in Altoona which still has posters on DK’s blog fuming.

ETA – 2011     Stock – No change 

J. Locke     High A

5.44 ERA     49.2 IP     47 K     29 BB     52 H     .277 avg.

J. Locke has been rated as one of Atlanta’s top 10 prospects the last to years.  He was #7 coming into 2009.  He has run into control problems this year as the numbers show but he is supposed to have incredible stuff.  Huntington went as far to say that Locke is our #2 pitching prospect.   Though I’m not so sure that is an endorsement of Locke as much as it is another harsh reminder of the incompetence of Dave Littlefield.  Let’s hope a change of scenery and some good instruction will help Locke get back on the right track.

ETA – 2012     Stock – No change

B. Friday     AA

.290/.372/.471     .843 OPS     4 HR     13 RBI

Friday has been a very pleasant surprise this season.  He’s managed to stay on the field and has displayed very nice power for a middle infielder.  He may be the answer to the long asked question of who is the heir apparent to Jack.  Unfortunately Friday is at least another year away from the big team, but his season gives reason to believe we may only have to endure one agonizing season of Bixler/Vasquez/Cruz/fill in the blank, should Jack not be back.

ETA – 2011     Stock – Rising

C. D’Arnaud  A

.301/.393/.446     .839 OPS     3 HR     27 RBI     10/13 SB

Chase has been another nice surprise.  One of the SS drafted by Team Huntington last year D’Arnaud seems poised to hop Jordy Mercer on the depth chart.  He too is displaying solid power for a SS and has the ability to swipe some bases.  It is unfortunate that with Freddy and Jack on their way out, that all of the middle infield depth is in AA or lower (other than Ford).

ETA – 2012     Stock – Rising

R. Owens     A

2.48 ERA     61.2 IP     56 K     11 BB     50 H     .216 avg.

I admit that I do not know a lot about Owens.  I do know that Neil Huntington spoke very highly of him recently and feels he has the potential to be a major league starting pitcher.  His numbers this year clearly suggest that may be the case.  He is striking out nearly a batter an inning and has issued only 11 BB and allowed just 50 hits in over 60 innings.  He is one of a couple interesting pitching prospects at the lower levels of the system right now.  Of course that is all about to change assuming Neil signs a majority of his picks from this year’s draft.

ETA – 2013     Stock – Rising

R. Uviedo     High A

3.19 ERA     62 IP     54K     11 BB     64 H     .268 avg.

The other interesting pitching prospect I was referring too above.  I don’t know a lot about Uviedo either but his numbers suggest that he deserves to be on this list.  He has a very nice K:BB ratio and a solid 1.21 WHIP.  Given the lack of interesting pitchers at Altoona outside of Lincoln and Moskos, let's hope Uviedo keeps it going so he can make it to AA soon.

ETA – 2012     Stock – Rising

D. Moskos     AA

3.94 ERA     64 IP     70 H     26 K     25 BB    2.33 GO/AO     .289 avg.

Has any player had a more difficult time feeling at home in his own organization?  After another awful start to the season, Moskos has regrouped and put up a very respectable line.  He is throwing a ton of groundball outs, over 2 to 1 groundball to flyball ratio, which may fit in well with what looks like is going to be a defense first organization.  To top it off, he is doing this as a starting pitcher.  If he can stick as a starter in the show the Matt Weiter’s fiasco won’t be as a bad as it was originally perceived.  Although it still is pretty bad.

ETA – 2011 (best case second half of 2010)     Stock – Rising

I put this list together not to just provide an update of our top prospects (someone else did that here recently and did a much better job than I have) but rather to point out that most of our really interesting prospects are a long way off.  Some of our potential impact players, save Lincoln, will not even see the majors until 2011 (Alvarez, Tabata, Hernandez, etc.) at the earliest, IMO.  This means that our so called “core” is not in place yet.  We are no where near ready to build around our versions of VanSlyke, Bonilla and Bonds.  This is why the McClouth trade was a good trade.  This is why we are going to see some more difficult decisions made in the coming months.  Maholm and Doumit, like McClouth, are nice players on good teams.  They are not in any way “core” players.  In fact, many of our regulars will have contract’s ending right around the time some of our impact prospects will hit.  Thankfully, Andrew McCutchen will have a year and half under his belt by then. 

To wrap this up, the way I see it, McCutchen, Lincoln and Alvarez are the closest things we have to core players.  We need more.  The only way to get quality is to give up quality which means we should not be surprised to see players like Zach Duke, Paul Maholm and Ryan Doumit being dealt because that is exactly what we need to do.  Maybe not all at once but it needs to be done.  Morton was acquired for a reason.  We have stockpiled a little pitching depth.  We have Gorzellany and Lincoln knocking on the door.  Everyone will say Snell should go but what we need is a high impact prospect and Snell will not deliver that.  He needs to regain some value 1st anyway.  We are not playing for 2009, 2010 or even 2011.  2011 will be the year things start to get interesting.  This is a harsh realization, I know.  I want to see that happen more than anyone but we need more talent for that to happen.  If we want to talk playoffs by 2012 or 2013 then we need to acquire impact players who will fit into the same “window” as McCutchen, Lincoln, and Alvarez (hopefully Morton too) so we can form that “core”. 

So, to DK, Neil Huntington is not moving the finish line as you suggest, he is simply trying to acquire better players so we can reach it faster.  Oh yeah, and the finish line is not .500.

Update 7/13/09:  Corrected Uviedo's stat line.  Thanks for the head's up azibuck.