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Some perspective on T. Sanchez and draft rankings

This may be coming a bit late after the draft, but since I still see references to the Pirates "going cheap" on Sanchez, I thought some perspective might be in order.

Do you still think the Pirates "went cheap" with Sanchez simply because BA ranked him the #32 draft prospect?  (I'll leave aside the fact that lots of people disagree with BA's rankings.)  Did you happen to notice that BA quoted several MLB people at various times before the draft to the effect that there was little difference between drafting near the top (excluding the top 2 of course) and drafting at #50?  It may seem like there's a lot of difference between #4 and #32, but even in a normal year, which this wasn't, scouting is a hugely inexact science.  And the scouts this year didn't see much of a difference.

More importantly, the Pirates weren't alone in their approach to this draft.  For example:

--The very next pick, #5 by the Orioles, went on Matt Hobgood, whom BA rated #40, eight spots behind Sanchez.

--The #6 pick (Giants) went on Zack Wheeler, whom BA ranked #12.

--The #7 pick (Braves) went on Mike Minor, whom BA ranked #35.

--The Nationals used the 10th pick on Drew Storen, ranked #36.

--Houston used the 21st pick on Jiovanni Mier, ranked #44.

--The high-spending Angels used the 24th pick on Randal Grichuk, whom BA ranked 58th.

The Pirates' 6th round pick, Zack von Rosenburg, was rated #41, higher than Mier or Grichuk and just one spot behind the 5th pick in the draft.  Their comp pick, Victor Black, was ranked #50, higher than Grichuk.

Kyle Gibson, ranked #4, lasted until the 22nd pick.

Maybe this wasn't as straightforward a matter as simply overdrafting a guy by 28 or so spots.

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Definitely a weird draft this year.

I have to admit that I do like the draft strategy, assuming we get 4 or 5 of the ineteresting high upside prospects signed. It’s funny how everyone calls out the Sanchez pick as the biggest reach when I felt that Minor and Hobgood were just as much of a reach if not more so. I thought the strangest part of the draft was the differing opinions about Sheppers health. It’s not often a guy who can hit 98 mph drops as far as he did two years in a row. Last year made sense, this one surprised me.

by Slick1 on Jun 21, 2009 11:29 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I’m in full agreement with you Slick. I felt Scheppers was the 3rd best talent this year, especially after proving his return from last years injury. I couldn’t believe he fell as far as he did.

by BattlinBucs on Jun 21, 2009 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Both years made sense

Apparently, as buccoben mentioned, he has a 50% tear in his labrum. The weird thing, in my opinion, is that he was drafted as high as he was. Apparently the Rangers knew about this before drafting him. I wouldn’t draft a guy with a labrum tear in the first 10 rounds, if at all.

by Dignan on Jun 22, 2009 2:23 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I may be wrong...

but I think it’s more lijke some doctor’s “think” he may have a 50% tear in his labrum. The Arizona team doctor (Yochim…I think that’s how it’s spelled) gave him a clean billl of health. He hasn’t shown any loss in velocity which is usually indicative of a problem. He’s still a risk, I just thought someone like Boston or NW wouild have taken a chance.

by Slick1 on Jun 22, 2009 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

A lot of times, with the labrum...

…you can’t really tell how bad a tear is until you open it up and have a look. Hence the uncertainty with Scheppers.

It’s also worth noting that almost all professional pitchers have at least some degree of labrum damage. Pitching is just an unnatural, high-stress activity for the joint. The issue is whether the damage for any given pitcher is bad enough to impede function, or whether it’s likely to degrade further down the road (and if so, how soon).

by Vlad on Jun 22, 2009 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks...

didn’t realize that about the tendon. On related topic we are taught at a young age to throw the ball over the top and this is the motion the creates the most stess on the muscle. Throwing side arm is a much more natural motion. Don’t really have a point, just sayin…

by Slick1 on Jun 23, 2009 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree with WTM, except..

That the problem to me isn’t that Sanchez was a reach, but that he has a low ceiling. Surely there were higher upside players available that would’ve signed for slot at #4.

Ultimately, this boils down to talent evaluation. The Bucs have not yet proved or disproved their ability to judge talent. I’m keeping an open mind, but in as much as many of the same talent evaluators from the disaterous DL regime are still on board in the same capacity, I think it is fair to have doubts. Strategy is important, but it ain’t gonna work if you can’t evaluate talent.

I was pissed when we took Maholm b/c DL immediately described him as a #3 type pitcher. I don’t see why we shouldn’t be at least as upset this time around.

Ultimately, I’m not that upset since the verdict is still out on the ability to evaluate talent and I like the overall plan (both in this draft and as a whole).

Finally, count me among those who are greatly opposed to moving Doumit out from behind the plate. His value would plummet.

Good day.

by Uncle Nate on Jun 22, 2009 8:14 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Actually, I don’t think there are many of DL’s people left. Certainly the upper level positions are almost all different, including most of NH’s assistants, as well as the scouting director and the upper level supervisors.

NH flat out said Sanchez didn’t have the highest ceiling of the players available. He said he wouldn’t always take the guy with the highest ceiling because the chance of success might be too low. Scheppers is a perfect example—he has an extremely high ceiling but the chance of him reaching it is negligible.

My point was that it was a much closer call than the raw rankings (#32 drafted at #4—IF you credit them) seem to imply. Other guys had higher ceilings, but the only real impact guys were Strasburg and Ackley, so you’re talking about a much smaller difference in ceiling between #4 and #32 than in a normal year. It’s not totally implausible that the chance of success, not to mention the added expense, should outweigh the limited difference in ceiling.

by WTM on Jun 22, 2009 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Building on that, the Pirates can’t afford to take the guy with the highest ceiling all the time. Their dearth of talent at the major league level and through much of their farm system means they need guys who will likely be solid major leaguers than a boom or bust guy who could be a Cy Young winner or a complete dud.

When a team has major league talent and a stocked farm system, it can better afford a high ceiling pick with a large bust potential because the bust does not damage the team as much. On the contrary, if the Pirates get a first rounder that turns out to be a bust, it can really damage the organization, both from a talent and PR perspective. So, if management signed Sanchez because they think he is more of a sure thing with a lower “ceiling”, I say that’s a decent call.

by CarlWeathersMustache on Jun 22, 2009 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Is a back up catcher

Really considered a “solid major leaguer”?

Maybe the projections of Sanchez projecting to a back up are wrong. Better yet, maybe the Pirates’ scouts disagree with those projections and see a solid future starting catcher. Did I miss the team saying that they project Sanchez as more than a back up or a marginal starter?

I’m not irate about the Sanchez pick, but nor am I convinced that it made sense given the overall draft strategy, which strategy I understand and applaud. It is easy to find competent back up catchers or marginal big league starting catchers.

Good day.

by Uncle Nate on Jun 22, 2009 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, you did miss them the team saying that...

they said his ceiling was, as a starter, above average defender. avareage bat, with above average power. His floor was a backup catcher with no bat and abover average defense. The Pirates brass believe Sanchez will be more than a marginal starter. Whether that happens or not remains to be seen.

by Slick1 on Jun 22, 2009 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

My beef...

…is that there were guys with a much higher ceiling who also had a comparatively low level of associated risk, such as Borchering. He wouldn’t have been an ideal choice either, but if you were determined to go “safe”, then he would have been a better pick.

by Vlad on Jun 22, 2009 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Same goes for Wheeler and Green, for that matter.

Assuming that Green will take slot, or close to it.

by Vlad on Jun 22, 2009 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

A great pick?

Video discussion of Clutch and Tony Sanchez draft. This reporter calls Sanchez “a great pick,” focusing on need. I have the misfortune to watch the Royals in action and want to stress that good defense is essential for winning. (The Royals offer an excellent counterexample, showing that bad defense makes winning really hard.)

Will the strategy work? Who knows. But tossing $4 million at one pitcher is a really high risk strategy. Tossing $4 million at four pitchers with some talent sounds far better to me.

Viva Clemente!

by Roberto on Jun 22, 2009 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think the MLB.com crew...

…had a harsh word to say about any of the picks. As such, I’m unpersuaded.

Again, I’m OK with spending low in the first to add extra tough signs later. I just think they took the wrong signability pick in the first.

by Vlad on Jun 22, 2009 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Pirates...

…stand a good chance of maximizing the talent they acquire in this draft and in this international signing period by not wasting millions on a first round choice who is unlikely to produce as a high first round draft pick should. If the Pirates can now draft and sign two additional players — if not more — that they would not have signed had they drafted and paid a player to the team’s first round slot, then the team will be better off overall baseballwise. Only the potential superstar disrupts this figuring because they, by definition, produce at a seldom equaled rate. the Pirates indicated that they would have drafted Strasberg and Ackley if either were available. The team should have the benefit of our doubt at this point. So, I believe they would have drafted these players if they could have.

In other worlds, if the market is flush with good but not great talent, it makes no financial sense to pay good players a great player’s price.

Steve Z

by steve_z on Jun 22, 2009 9:51 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Hitters vs. Pitchers

I think the other thing to remember is that a TON of the guys ranked in the top 25-30 by BA (and everyone else) were pitchers. Since the strategy was to draft all of the tough sign pitchers later in the draft, it stands to reason that the 1st round pick was going to be a position player. If you eliminate the pitchers from the top 30, and eliminate all of the hitters that wouldn’t sign for slot, you’re really left with the choice of Sanchez out of a relatively small pool of hitters. It’s not at all inconceivable to believe the Bucs liked him best of that group.

by mak_DC on Jun 22, 2009 10:12 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

WTM

I usually agree with your columns, but this one I’m more skeptical of.

Put me in the Pirates went “cheap” category.

No, I don’t think the Pirates went cheap because of the BA rankings. I think they went cheap because no one had Sanchez evaluated as a top 10 player. None. I’m in SEC/ACC baseball country and he just wasn’t viewed as a top-tier talent.

Yes, I do think other teams went cheap this year as well. I suspect it’s because of the drop in “slot” money from MLB baseball. But this is really the first year that there has been such a dramatic difference between the BA rankings and the draft.

Second, I’m not sure Gibson helps your argument. Obviously, he wouldn’t have gone there if it weren’t for an injury.

Now the Pirates claim it was part of an overall strategy. Okay. But I still think there were five or six better bats than Sanchez. I never think taking a player whose upside is Bengie Molina with the #4 pick is a good idea. The pick should have been Borchering, I think.

As for Sanchez, you can find players like that internationally or in the 20th round.

Just a final comment: Imagine the Pirates team right now if DL went with the BA rankings. They aren’t perfect. But they are better than many teams.

I’m still unconvinced that the Pirates shouldn’t have drafted a Boras client, offered slot and taken the pick next year.

I’m also not convinced that the Pirates had to take Sanchez to get the “upside” players later.

I hope the strategy works out, but I think it’s a wasted pick. When the team acknowledges that the “upside” is an above average defender and average hitter, there is a problem.

by Bernie6666 on Jun 22, 2009 8:03 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

5 or 6 hitters?

Borchering and Green are the only two I can think of that were rated significantly higher than Sanchez. I’m not crazy about it either, but let’s not exaggerate…who else was there?

by maguro on Jun 22, 2009 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Borchering was rated pretty high for his bat...

but let’s not kid ourselves it was a HS bat and that still comes with a lot of risk. Same geos with Wil Myers who I thouhgt we really could have taken do to the fact that he can play behind the plate and he has been projected as having Dale Murphy upside with his stick. That being said, it’s been reported that both of those guys want more than slot which, in the eyes of NH, drops their overall value below Sanchez. I can think of many more upside bats, maybe Wheeler, Stassi,…it’s real debatable after that. Sanchez plays a premium position and does it well. I too would have gone in another direction with the pick but I am convinced that given the situation as NH decribes it, the Pirates FO got the player they wanted. And for the record I think Green would have been a good pick for us I just don’t think there is any way we pick up at #4 and he signs for 2.5 million.

by Slick1 on Jun 22, 2009 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

FWIW, Borchering...

…was regarded as very safe, by h.s. bat standards. The only question with him was the same as the one about Pedro: whether or not he can stick at third.

by Vlad on Jun 23, 2009 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

My guess?

In order: Ackley, Tate, Green, Borchering, Tim Wheeler, and Mike Trout.

FWIW, BA had Sanchez as the 12th-best hitter in the draft. Behind, in order: Ackley, Tate, Green, Wheeler, Borchering, Everett Williams, Trout, A.J. Pollock, Jared Mitchell, LeVon Washington, Max Stassi, and Wil Myers.

by Vlad on Jun 23, 2009 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

5 or 6 hitters?

Yeah, I think so. The reports I’ve heard on Sanchez aren’t very good. Essentially, he improved this year some with conditioning. But check his college statistics before this year. Not very good.

As for the bats I liked better:

1. Bobby Borchering

2. Grant Green

3. AJ Pollock

4. Jared Mitchell

5. Tim Wheeler

Yeah, I know most are HS bats. Yeah, I know they are harder to predict than college bats. But I suspect everyone will sign for less than Sanchez.

The Pirates aren’t in a place where you take low-risk players. If that was NH’s policy, Jason Bay would still be a Pirate.

I think it’s just a difference of opinion.

I agree though that if Sano is signed and five or six of the HS arms are signed that the strategy worked.

I still don’t believe that you had to blow the first day to do it.

Really, how many of the day 1 pix excite anyone?

by Bernie6666 on Jun 23, 2009 9:28 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Thanks Bucco

You are correct. My mistake there.

by Bernie6666 on Jun 23, 2009 11:54 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

We've got Tony Sanchez,

and not the other names mentioned, so let’s start pulling for him and forget about the hypothetical games.

I’m more concerned about the ENTIRE draft, as well as the international signings from next month.

by patthatt on Jun 23, 2009 3:58 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Sanchez was an overdraft but...

It wasn’t as big a reach as Hobgood, Mier & Storen. Also the Pirates draft was underrated as Black, Von Rosenberg, Cain, Stevenson & Den Dekker were all great picks, especially if they all get signed and Virginia SS Tyler Cannon is underrated.

Grab Some Pine Meat!

by Gobroks on Jun 23, 2009 7:57 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Cannon has been very adamant that he won’t sign. Not that that’s ever definitive.

by WTM on Jun 23, 2009 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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