This scares me

by vanslyke on Jun 22, 2009 10:45 AM EDT Comment 51 comments

Let's take a step back from our fan status and lets take a look at the players we are touting trade by the deadline:

Jack Wilson - Who replaces him? We are spoiled with his glove, and when he is out of the lineup we all gasp anytime a ball is hit to short. There are only a few good SS prospects out there with other teams and even fewer in our system. Jack brings an above average glove yet average bat at best. He is not going to fetch us any big time prospect(s). He has a 9 year career with the PBC and has been the defacto face during all of the trades. Why not throw the fans a bone and lock him down. He has expressed interest in retiring a Bucco and we aren't going to do any better in our system. His price tag while a bit high isnt going to break the bank. I am all for a "Jason Kendall" type deal here. The prospect of watching a second half without Jack at short scares me.

Freddy Sanchez - Again, who replaces him? DY is lost at 2B. If we would "baseballitize" a hockey version of plus/minus, DY could have an Adam LaRoche June OPS for the rest of the year and still be an overall minus -5. He is that bad in the field. Shelby Ford is not ready and no one is pushing Andy LaRoche off 3B yet. Let's just say for all of you Neil Walker fans that we call him up after his finger injury and swith Luigi to 2B, do you really think a mid-year position change is a good idea even if we have no hope of contending? We have just gotten Luigi's bat squared away and Neil Walker hasnt proven anything. Anyway, what would Freddy fetch? He is an average fielder who hits for average. I think an "average" return would be all that we could hope for. No Freddy at 2B scares me.

Adam LaRoche - This trade sucks in the short term. In the long term, we have at least one prospect we have to find out about (Steve Pearce) and veteren help (Hinske) if he absolutely shits the bed. Past Pearce, we are thin and that scares me. We continue to hear talk about Alvarez switching positions, but there has been no talk of that from the FO. With the way Alvarez is moving, he may not have time to develop a new position. We better cross our fingers that Pearce produces, otherwise it is going to be a long 2nd half and even longer off season.

Zack Duke/Paul Maholm - With the lack of depth of the starting pitching in the market, I wouldnt be suprised to the see one of our regular starters (with the exception of Ian Snell) moved. These guys are the real bargaining chips. While I would hate to see what would happen to our already sub .500 record if you lose one of these starters, I would love the return they could fetch. Teams would overpay to have a Duke/Maholm in their rotation. They are young guys with proven track records. Philadelphia, NY, NYY, LA, Detroit, MInn could really use one if not both of those guys. If we package one of them with a Mario, you may be able to pick off a high end almost ready for major league prospect. This DOES NOT scare me.

Ryan Doumit - moot. No one is going to trade for an injury prone catcher.

The bottom line is that most of our talent is AA and below. We have some nice bargaining chips in starting pitching and a solid 1B as well as good package guys like Sanchez/Wilson. I am hoping that the return will be for more immediate prospects who can fill holes at SS, 2B, SP? for a few years who can give us options should our low minor prospects faulter. I think the time for trading "to build the minor leagues" is over and we should start addressing holes in 2010 and 2011.

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Wilson

will be a free agent. nobody is gonna pay him the option. trade him take the lumps with bixler or whoever is available on the street. and resign him next year or find a better or equal option. and obtain some low level prospects that could pay off

by bucsreport on Jun 22, 2009 11:03 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

There would be trade interest in Doumit...

…but not any value in return until he shows that he’s healthy and productive again.

I think that in the event of a Jack/Freddy trade, we’d see a lot of Vazquez at 2B or SS, with Bixler or Cruz moving up to be the new UT IF. It’d suck, but it’d get us through the season.

by Vlad on Jun 22, 2009 11:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Doumit being productive? Not a question. Doumit being healthy? Serious question.

by mspirate on Jun 22, 2009 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He doesn't have to be healthy for long.

Just long enough to show that the wrist isn’t going to be a lingering issue.

by Vlad on Jun 22, 2009 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, if it’s not his wrist, it’s his shoulder. If it’s not his shoulder, it’s his knee. If it’s not his knee, it’s something else. He always seems to be injured, whether it’s a nagging injury or a broken bone. Hopefully, it’s just coincidence, but it’s been happening a lot lately.

by mspirate on Jun 22, 2009 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Most teams don't count on...

…more than 120 games out of a catcher anyway.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence. I think he’s brittle. But teams will trade for a brittle guy as long as they think they can get something of value out of him before he gets hurt.

by Vlad on Jun 22, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed. I don’t want to see Doumit traded. It’s a real possibility, but man, I hope not.

by mspirate on Jun 22, 2009 9:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is there a term stronger than suck?

I don’t know if I could watch a game that involved a Vazquez/Bixler/Cruz middle infield even with the promise a Ford/LaRoche/Negrych/TBD. We really need to upgrade those positions. I think we move an SP to fortify the middle.

by vanslyke on Jun 22, 2009 11:14 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

We've got good low-minors depth at 2B/SS.

I’d rather see them try and maximize overall value in trades than see them forfeit upside just to save us from two months of a bad MIF this year.

by Vlad on Jun 22, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

We agree

My point is that lower depth is all we have. We have nothing bonafide at AA or AAA. I would like to see us secure higher level middle IF depth. We seem to be strong in the outfield, 3rd base and pitching.

by vanslyke on Jun 22, 2009 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You typically have to pay a premium...

…to get ML-ready guys. That’s why I was saying what I did in the above post. If we were offered a top 2B/SS prospect, I certainly wouldn’t turn up my nose at him, but I’d rather have a high-upside A-baller at a non-MIF position than a ML-ready 2B/SS who projects as average-ish.

by Vlad on Jun 22, 2009 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think it has been clear for quite awhile that

things are likely to get worse before they get better. I first started visiting this site about the time of the Adam Laroche trade and a lot of people said then that our window of opportunity was 2007 to 2009.

by WestCoastBuc on Jun 22, 2009 11:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Misguided

There is more in the minors pointing to 2011-2013 than there was for 2007-2009.

Anyway, we need to trade a starting pitcher. I posted this on another thread, but I keep thinking back to Zane Smith. We traded Moises Alou for him because we were desperate to hold off the Mets. How desperate is Philly, NYY, NYM or Detroit to name a few?

by vanslyke on Jun 22, 2009 11:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Didn't you just write the article

expressing concern that we don’t really have very good options for replacing Wilson, Sanchez and Adam? And you didin’t even touch on our problems in the OF after Cutch. I’d grant you that things might start turning around by 2012 or 2013 but 2010 and 2011 seem almost to horrible too contemplate at this point.

by WestCoastBuc on Jun 22, 2009 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

We dont have good options

in the OF (after McCutch) or in the IF (after Wilson/Sanchez). The difference is we project OF high upside prospects at AA and will more than likely see them at AAA at some point. Our middle IF is just getting wet at AA and is more in the lower A realm. If we stay on course, we are looking at 2012 or 2013 for our middle IF prospects. We can almost project an outfield of our homegrown talent by 2011. Who fills in for the middle IF if we let Wilson/Sanchez go? We need to package an SP and look for middle IF help since our projected homegrown middle IF is so far down in the minors. We need a high upside middle infielder that is between AAA or AA since there is a huge gap in our system.

by vanslyke on Jun 22, 2009 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Left and Right Fielders Are Easy To Find

There will never be a dearth of talent at left-field, right-field, or first base. You will always be able to find a passable player for those positions, because they’re the easiest positions to play.

by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jun 22, 2009 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Our hope in the outfield is centered on Tabata and Hernandez. Huntington acquired them to be the next great outfield along with Cutch on the next winning team. Tabata, Cutch and Hernandez is the ultimate outfield vision of this team a couple years from now. Until then? No, there aren’t a lot of answers in the outfield.

by mspirate on Jun 22, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

F Hernandez

Robbie Grossman will be our LF of the future, hopefully.

"So you think 25 percent of the country is retarded?! Yea. Atleast 25 percent. Well lets so a sample. There are 4 of us an you're retarded. Thats 25 percent." Southpark; Mystery of the Urinal Deuce

by gorillakilla34 on Jun 23, 2009 1:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Got news for you guys

The worst team in modern baseball history won 40 games, and a lot has happened since 1962 to compress the top and the bottom teams, so that, Detroit’s run at the record a couple years ago notwithstanding, I’m not so certain that if we ran the Indianapolis Indians out there every day they wouldn’t at least win around 45-50 games. All things considered, that’s not a whole lot worse than 65, which is where we usually end up anyway, with all our heroes (Wilson, Freddy etc.) entrenched at their positions.

What would scare ME is if we stood pat with the yonkos we’re running out there now and passed up a good deal to spare the fans having to watch Bixler play short for a year and strike out in half his at-bats. I promise you, we could play Bixler all year and we will not go 20-142.

by bucdaddy on Jun 22, 2009 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fear the record

Lots of fans see this meaningless record of consecutive losing seasons as a crushing blow to the club. The previous regime really got into the heads of a lot of people, who show zero trust towards anyone in the FO. Thats why they get all upset when me turn mediocrity into 3 upside players.

You have to trade away Freddy, Jack, LaRoche, Grabow, Doumit, and I’ll even say put Capps and Maholm out there too. I can stomach Bixler and whoever else they find to fill in, while the high upside prospects develop and bring what we all want to see….competitive baseball

by BattlinBucs on Jun 22, 2009 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gotta agree

I was one of many who were upset that McLouth was dealt, mostly because it seemed like they had made a committment to him by what they said. But If they’re going to trade our best player, then they may as well trade everyone else on the team – at least those they can get good prospects, or stand ins for – so they can build a champion.

Grabow, Jack, Adam, Freddy, Zach, paul, Ian, doumit and capps can in my estimation bring some good prospects (and yes some may be low-level that we’ll have to wait on) or good fill-in players (like what Vazquez and Hinske are now) that can fill holes, until 2011 when all the prospects we’ll have collected will be competing in AAA or on the Vet team. By then we should have a good high-level minor league that these discussions will change to debates about which player is better and deserves the next promotion. We’ll also have the ability to trade prospects for bonified MLB stars then. Which I know all Pirate fans are dying to see.

by Pensburgh Pirates on Jun 22, 2009 7:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Totally agree

So tired of fans posting on here about don’t trade this person or this person. The only way to win is to trade the guys who we are only winning 65 games and rebuild our system. Our GM’s in the past have ruined our farm system and it is going to take NH to trade the guys we have, period!

by g021g0 on Jun 22, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the pirates will have a replacement for jack coming back in a trade at the deadline.. but its probably going to cost a Maholm if they get a Shortstop thats legit like a Brandon Wood or a Reid Brignac. so i agree with vanslyke here Maholm would get the biggest return.. people are always desperate for pitching.

by BigB23 on Jun 22, 2009 11:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Do whatever it takes.

by mspirate on Jun 22, 2009 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is that your final answer?

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Jun 22, 2009 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Morton

I think that is why our return for McLouth was huge. We have a bonafide starter, and huge upside OF and left handed starting pitcher. This was for McLouth! What would a deperate team part with for the same control of an SP with track record give? That is exciting.

by vanslyke on Jun 22, 2009 12:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

BTW...

Walker’s problem is NOT his finger…it’s his KNEE. See the notes section of the Sandlot Swashbucklers blog entry.

http://mvn.com/sandlotswashbucklers/2009/06/ind-fri.html

by Thunder on Jun 22, 2009 12:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

And this one...

from the Indy Indians radio guy…about half way through the entry.

http://indyindians.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/06/home_runs_pinkies_and_seagulls.html

by Thunder on Jun 22, 2009 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Everybody Loves Jack

I realize that everybody loves Jack Wilson, because he seems like a real nice guy, he seems like he genuinely cares about the Pirates and says that he wants to finish his career here. But if the Red Sox could trade Nomar, which was probably the move that won them the World Series, the Pirates can surely trade Jack Wilson.

by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jun 22, 2009 12:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You neglected to mention one other reason we love Jack

We’ve all seen Brian Bixler play.

by WestCoastBuc on Jun 22, 2009 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ha

That’s also true! But we just have to give up on the idea of the Pirates winning right now. It’s not gonna happen either with Jack or without him. If the Pirates lose ten more games with Bixler than they would have lost with Jack, then who really cares? They suck either way.

by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jun 22, 2009 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good Analysis-I Totally Agree

I totally agree with how you have looked at our future options. The farm system has no major league ready talent anywhere! Until Alvarez and Sanchez move thru the system, we have nothing.

I am glad I am not NH!

by zogger on Jun 22, 2009 12:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

For the record

I say everybody is tradeable (except McCutch)- no one is untouchable. My point is that baseball in Pittsburgh in the second half is going to be painful! Bixler/Cruz/Vasquez will such ass, but I am cool with the pain as long as we get the good return. My point is that the pain will be prolonged in the MIF because as Vlad said, we will have to pay a premium while “upside” is cheaper and falls in line with the value the players we have out there bring. I can only hope that a team may overpay for SPs that are under control for a few years and have proven talent.

by vanslyke on Jun 22, 2009 2:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Shuddering thought.....

I had a dream last night that McCutchen was traded for 3 cant miss prospects……would that piss off the fan base or would that help us compete and win in the future?

by vanslyke on Jun 22, 2009 2:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Absolutely not…Cutch will be part of the next winning team in Pittsburgh. They are not trading him (or at least I don’t think that’s possible).

by mspirate on Jun 22, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Woah

You actually dream about the Pirates. That’s hard-core. I am not that hard-core. You have out-hard-cored me.

by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jun 22, 2009 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Depends on the prospects.

I guess.

by Vlad on Jun 22, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why should McCutch be part of the next winning team?

If for all intents and purposes we will just sniff competiing by 2013? Let him cut his teeth with us and trade him at 26 with 4.5 years of major league experience. He could net us some cant miss prospects and maybe a good major league player.

by vanslyke on Jun 22, 2009 3:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Because Cutch is proving himself to be a once-in-a-decade type player, which is saying something since he’s been in the league for two and a half weeks.

by ryebr3ad on Jun 22, 2009 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Did you seriously just ask that? If we are still trading our best players away and “rebuilding” in 2013, then there is absolutely no hope for this franchise.

by mspirate on Jun 22, 2009 9:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

but would sacraficing a once in a decade player

be worth it solidify a winning franchise?

by vanslyke on Jun 22, 2009 4:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

No

There is no way we will trade Cutch, ever. The only way he leaves is through free agency. NH has said that there will be a time when he can decline trades like the McLouth one, due to organizational depth. With the direction we are headed, it looks like in 4 or 5 years, we won’t need to trade Cutch.

I really think that when it’s all said and done, Cutch will have a statue somewhere outside PNC. Or maybe right behind CF on the riverwalk.

by H2O on Jun 22, 2009 7:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Exaclty, and it will probably be sooner than 4-5 years.

by mspirate on Jun 22, 2009 9:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly*

by mspirate on Jun 22, 2009 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not about the statue part, but the part about not trading him.

by mspirate on Jun 22, 2009 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wow

Its been a month. While he brings an excitement not seen in Pittsburgh FOREVER, he is not a first ballot HOF! Let’s enjoy the ride but we cannot expect this tear to continue.

by vanslyke on Jun 22, 2009 8:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I have him on my ballot :)

by BattlinBucs on Jun 22, 2009 8:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I know we aren't used to seeing guys like Cutch here in tha Burgh...

But I completely expect Cutch to keep up his pace for the most part. He has the pedigree to be a superstar and he’s proving it. He has disipline and a quick bat. He plays a very good CF. I just can’t wait until we have many more prospects like him on the way up!

"So you think 25 percent of the country is retarded?! Yea. Atleast 25 percent. Well lets so a sample. There are 4 of us an you're retarded. Thats 25 percent." Southpark; Mystery of the Urinal Deuce

by gorillakilla34 on Jun 23, 2009 1:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I totally agree. While I don’t think he will be a career .333 hitter, I can definitely see him being a .300 hitter in the big leagues. His plate discipline has been pretty good, although the one part he can improve on is the high fastball. Every time that I’ve watched him this season with two strikes on him, he’ll chase the high fastball at his neck/head. Gotta lay off that. But other than that, I can’t complain about him. He’s been great, and I see no reason why he can’t be a great offensive player for many years to come. The rough patches are going to come and he’s going to struggle at times as every player does, but I believe he will weather those storms and ultimately have a great career with many All-Star appearances.

by mspirate on Jun 23, 2009 1:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Plate discipline?

He doesnt strike out on borderline pitches – he strikes out with balls way out of the zone. Once we get a few advance scouts out there on him, his numbers will come back to earth. It will be up to him to adjust – which he will, and then excel.

by vanslyke on Jun 23, 2009 10:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Cutch should be a .280 – .300 hitter with 15 HRs and 20-30 SBs. He also has the best pitch recognition in our system, which should help him with his plate discipline. If he is swinging at balls way out of the zone, which I haven’t really noticed, it’s probably because he is still a rookie, and he’s probably still a bit too nervous on strikeout pitches.

by H2O on Jun 23, 2009 4:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs