Pedro Alvarez Strikes Out A Lot But It's Okay
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jun 22, 2009 2:25 PM EDT
Email
PrintThe idea that "Pedro Alvarez strikes out a lot but it's okay" is getting tossed around. But lets really examine the notion.
The two excuses I'm hearing for why it's okay that he strikes out a lot are:
- He strikes out a lot because he's getting pitched around because he's so good.
- He'll learn to not strike out later.
Excuse Number One we can discard on its face because good hitters do not strike out when they're getting pitched around. In case you're confused by this concept, allow me to repeat: good hitters do not strike out when they're getting pitched around. In fact, it's exactly the sort of a thing that you'd expect a bad hitter to do.
Excuse Number Two requires a little more examination.
In A-ball, Alvarez has struck out 70 times in 243 at-bats. That's 29% of the time. Since Pedro Alvarez is supposedly the new Albert Pujols, let's compare to Pujols' A-ball numbers. In A-ball, Pujols struck out 37 times in 395 at-bats or 9% of the time. If you're going to compare Alvarez to Pujols, there's a giant difference in their professional careers at the same point in development that you're going to have to account for.
Anyway, let's look at some other players. Craig Biggio, in A-ball, struck out 15% of the time -- Ken Griffey Jr.: 18%, Alex Rodriguez: 18%, David Ortiz: 22%, Adrian Gonzalez: 16%, Prince Fielder: 18%, Robin Yount: 10%, Raul Ibanez: 14%, Nomar Garciaparra 6%, Ben Zobrist: 17%. You get the point. My search is hardly exhaustive, or systematic. It's honestly just based off of me thinking of good players and looking up their A-ball stats. But I'm really having trouble finding a player who struck out as much as Alvarez did in A-ball who turned out to be really good. Although Jim Rice is closer: 25%.
I admit this isn't a very rigorous study, but it should at least suggest that it's hard to find a good player who struck out a lot in A-ball. In fact, it was tricky to find any major leaguer, good or bad, who struck out as much as Alvarez did. But because I care about you, the reader, I looked as hard as I could, and eventually I found one player who had struck out 28% of the time in A-ball, which is one percent better than Alvarez did. It's the closest comparison I found. His name was Jeff King.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
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Anything over 25% K is a serious red flag.
At any level of the system, but particularly in the low minors, since K rates almost always increase significantly with promotion to a higher level.
Yup
Now there are a few oddballs. Like I said, Jim Rice turned out to be a very good ballplayer, but he’s an exception. And no one is saying that Pedro Alvarez is the next Jim Rice. They’re saying he’s the next Albert Pujols, and even the next Babe Ruth. But unless something turns around real soon, he’s gonna be lucky to be the next Pete Incaviglia.
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jun 22, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Who is saying this?
Sorry to get into this with you again, but I’d pay more attention to you and show you more respect if you didn’t throw in baseless shit like “Since Pedro Alvarez is supposedly the new Albert Pujols”. If someone on the PG blog said it, it doesn’t even count.
Hinske said it a while ago:
Link. And in the same article, you’ve got Nate comparing him to Miguel Cabrera, and Manny comparing him to Willie.
No One Important
<href=“http://www.bucsdugout.com/2009/4/3/821013/ten-reasons-to-get-excited-about”>No one at all.
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jun 22, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions
You’re right about Alvarez’s strikeout rate being a huge concern, but you’re really contorting what Charlie meant there to get it to make your point.
http://www.whygavs.com
http://mlb.fanhouse.com
Well
I wasn’t really saying that Charlie was saying it. Clearly, Charlie is only pointing out that someone else is saying it. Charlie is just the messenger.
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jun 22, 2009 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions
(Sigh)
A ballplayer quoted in a fluff piece, and a banned BD poster, that’s who’s calling him the next Pujols.
I’m sorry, considering the recency of his promotion, I thought maybe there was some consensus or something, or widespread recent opinion that you were referencing. I’ll take back baseless, and just change your comments to “throwing shit around.” From now on, I’ll know better.
And Here's Another
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2009/4/17/841101/alvarez-hits-walk-off-hr
They’re not hard to find.
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jun 22, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions
You say “they’re saying he’s the next Pujols.” Who is they? Also, if he doesn’t turn it around soon, he’s gonna be lucky to be the next Pete Incaviglia?? You make it sound like he’s a 24 or 25-year-old prospect (ala Neil Walker) that has been in the system for four or five years already on the verge of being out of baseball in a couple of years, like he’s running out of time to prove himself or something. Let’s not get carried away. Alvarez is in his first year of pro baseball and he came into the league with the weight of a city’s pressure on his shoulder. Fans view him as the savior of this franchise, fair or not. This kid is a phenominal talent, but he is also human just like you and me. He is under major scrutiny. Every single play, at-bat, out, strikeout, hit, home run is documented and talked about on here and all over the Internet. The strikeouts are alarming, but there is no need to being panicking this early considering the pressure and magnifying glass this kid is under every single day. I don’t know if there is another prospect in baseball (besides Strasburg) that is under more pressure to perform quickly and get to the big leagues now than Alvarez. So yeah, he’s probably pressing a bit trying to impress everybody. But even though his average isn’t there yet, his production thus far is unquestionable. He K’s have been down and his average up in the past few games with Lynchburg so maybe he’s starting to get comfortable and play within himself. Let’s not get carried away with comments like “If he doesn’t start doing something soon” or “If he doesn’t start turning things around soon”. This kid is going to be special player, and the strikeouts will go down as he gets more comfortable.
A K rate that high...
…is probably the single strongest negative indicator as far as a player developing into a star in MLB.
That’s why we’re worried.
by Vlad on Jun 22, 2009 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
If You Knew Your Baseball History
You’d know that Pete Incaviglia was a first round draft pick who went straight to the majors. So, comparing him to Pete Incaviglia is actually absolutely nothing like comparing him to a 25-year old prospect who has been in the minor league system for four or five years. It’s not similar in any way at all.
What Pedro Alvarez and Pete Incaviglia do have in common is that they both struck out a hell of a lot.
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jun 22, 2009 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Do you really think
when he stands at the plate he’s thinking, “I better get a hit or people in Pittsburgh are going to think I suck. Geez, the pressure is just ENORMOUS from the vicious Pittsburgh media and the millions of rabid Pittsburgh fans. If Bob Smizik writes something bad about me I’ll just want to crawl in a hole.”
Otherwise, yeah, I’m kinda with you. Everybody take a deep breath. The guy didn’t play any ball for a year. Still looking for his groove?
Hope so.
That's
the same reasoning why we don’t have Ryan Howard at 1st Base right now. Though I can’t blame DL too much for that reasoning, but Howard had a 31% K rate his 3 year of A ball. Alvarez will be fine, every body relax and take a deep breath
*edit
3rd year of A ball, not 3 year of A ball
Just for context:
Here’s every player who led an A+ league in Ks between 1995 and 2004:
Carolina League:
1995: Juan Thomas – never played in MLB.
1996: Al Shirley – never played in MLB.
1997: Gary Coffee – never played in MLB.
1998: Corey Pointer – never played in MLB.
1999: Corey Pointer – never played in MLB.
2000: J.J. Davis – 106 ML AB, .179/.248/.217. Out of organized ball.
2001: Don Ross – never played in MLB.
2002: Eric Welsh – never played in MLB.
2003: Gregor Blanco – 441 ML AB, .245/.361/.302. Still active. Note: only 114 K in league-leading season, under 25% of AB.
2004: Mark Saccomanno – 10 ML AB, .200/.200/.600. Still active.
Next post: California League:
by Vlad on Jun 22, 2009 3:13 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
California League:
1995: Gary Hust – never played in MLB.
1996: Doug Carroll – never played in MLB.
1997: Jon Vander Griend – never played in MLB.
1998: Chad Faircloth – never played in MLB.
1999: Tim Flaherty – never played in MLB.
2000: Jeremy Owens – never played in MLB.
2001: Tim Flaherty – never played in MLB.
2002: Jorge Soto – never played in MLB.
2003: Justin Lincoln – never played in MLB.
2004: Kervin Jacobo – never played in MLB.
by Vlad on Jun 22, 2009 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Florida State League:
1995: Sloan Smith – never played in MLB.
1996: John Curl – never played in MLB.
1997: Nate Rolison – 13 ML AB, .077/.125/.077. Out of organized ball.
1998: Chris Schwab – never played in MLB.
1999: Carlos Pena – 2909 ML AB, .250/.357/.503. Still active.
2000: Rob Stratton – never played in MLB.
2001: Carlos Rodriguez – never played in MLB.
2002: Reggie Abercrombie – 386 ML AB, .223/.274/.355. Still active.
2003: Ryan Howard – 2336 ML AB, .277/.375/.586. Still active.
2004: Corey Ragsdale – never played in MLB.
So at last, we’ve got two guys who made it.
*Pena had 26.9% K, and after wandering in the wilderness for a few years, established himself as a star at age 29. He never really learned to hit for average, though (.250 MLB career, .247 last year, .238 this year), and his 1999 K rate was the highest of his minor league career.
*Howard had 30.8% K, with no apparent ill effects. He struck out even more at higher levels, but has turned into a very productive regular anyway.
Anyway, I trust you see why I’m concerned?
by Vlad on Jun 22, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Note also the league effect in play.
The FSL has the lowest offensive levels, and the best hitters of the bunch have come from there. The California League has the highest, and none of their K champs have so much as sniffed the majors.
Lynchburg is pretty close to neutral.
Scary stuff
That is why they play the games on the field. If we live by Pedro on paper – we may as well cut him and save his money. Let’s see what he does at AA. This will determine if his 29% is an abberation or a real problem.
ryan howard
struck out 28% of the time in A…If Alvarez gives us howard like production for 6 years while playing first base is anybody going to complain?
by SHOOTFOR2010 on Jun 22, 2009 3:25 PM EDT reply actions
Good Point
I hadn’t looked up Howard. But still, players like Ryan Howard seem to be the exception.
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jun 22, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
so now we have two exceptions to the rule out of what seems to be about thirty plus names, if you keep digging move info i’m sure there are more names.
I would take Ryan Howard numbers any day of the week. I really like the fact that Pedro steps up and delivers a homerun when his team needs it. Which reminds me a little bit of how Howard stepped up and hit a pinch hit three run homerun while having the flu…
There are lots of exceptions to the 25% rule:
Craig Wilson. Russ Branyan. Mark Reynolds.
The trick is that the guys who overcome it still typically strike out a ton in MLB and never hit for much average. It’s not like the problem ever really goes away – they’re successful in spite of it, not because they fix it.
Craig Wilson: Professionall Hitter
Except being on Craig Wilson’s career path isn’t exactly something to get excited about.
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jun 22, 2009 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Anyone comparing...
Alvarez to Pujols…needs their heads examined.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=pujols001jos
In his one and only year in the minors…Pujols struck out 47 times…in 544 PA. That’s less than 10%. That’s also Low A…High A and AAA combined. (Although only 15 regular season AB at AAA). He did play in the PCL playoffs and the Junior World Series that year for the Memphis Redbirds. In fact, hit a walkoff HR to win the final game of the PCL playoffs.
Pujols is a once in a generation player…Alvarez is not. We’ll see how he does in Altoona for the next 2 months.
You don’t know that Alvarez isn’t a once in a generation player YET. Just look at Pujols himself. He was a 13th rd. draft pick in 1999. I don’t think any St. Louis fan, let alone anybody in baseball, thought Pujols was going to turn into the greatest player in the game today when they drafted him. The only difference: People expected greatness from Alvarez from the moment he was drafted, and people didn’t expect this from Pujols. Let’s wait and hold our judgement until he actually makes it to the show. I’m not going to sing his praises yet and call him the next Pujols, but a guy hitting 550 ft. home runs in spring training isn’t exactly your normal, average prospect.
You don’t know that Alvarez isn’t a once in a generation player YET.
I either want some good betting odds, or for you to stop huffing glue.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jun 22, 2009 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I'll give you 2:1 odds...
that by the end of the 2013 season there is a 100% chance that Alvarez may, or may not, have put up better numbers than Pujols did at that point in his career! Are we on?
Put me down
for a C-note.
.
Hee!
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jun 22, 2009 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Epistemology Is Fun
You don’t know that I’m not Jesus Christ.
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jun 22, 2009 9:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm still thinking there's at least a 50% chance
you’re the reincarnation of thelumberco., mspirate.
I assume
you went out and measured Eldred’s spring training HR’s every year?? There were plenty of reports of Eldred’s tape measure shots in both the minors and ST. Course…there were lots of strikeouts too.
(clicketa clicketa clicketa)
I put the baseball card in your spokes for you, so you wouldn’t have to.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jun 23, 2009 9:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Eldred had as much raw power as anyone I've ever seen.
Too bad God didn’t see fit to give him any other tools to pair it with.
Yeah
It’s a shame, really. Eldred’s swing had such a massive hole, but any tweak would’ve sappe power. It was his gift, his curse.
www.sixtyftsixin.com
by Sixty Feet, Six Inches on Jun 24, 2009 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree...
that we should hold off on all the comparisons to Pujols. The man is a special talent and the most feared hitter in baseball. That being said I don’t think it’s fair to say that Pedro is not a once in a generation player after a half season in Lynchburg. I’m not saying he is, I’m just saying I’m willing to reserve judgment unitl I see him perform in the show. Pujols is a macine though I wouldn’t be surprised to see his name pop up in a future PED scandal. I don’t have any evidence, just a suspicion. I remember thinking when he came up with the Cards that this man is an absolute monster for his age. Maybe it’s just genetics…it’s a shame that I have to wonder about every player that has significant size if it is all natural. I think it’s safe to say that given Pedro’s physique coming into the season that we can all at least take comfort in the fact that he is not on the juice.
Wuh?
Are you saying that Pedro isn’t juicing because he was big in college? As if college players don’t juice?
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jun 22, 2009 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm saying not because he came to camp as a big fat fatty!
I really have no idea but I hope not. If he was juicing I’d expect a much better physique than the one he has!
Roger Clemens
Roger Clemens was always a lard-ass, and he was a big juicer.
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jun 22, 2009 9:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Fair enough...
but he was a lot skinnier when he first came up with the Sox. I personally didn’t notice his thunder thighs til he went to the Jays.
True
Maybe that’s when he started juicing?
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jun 22, 2009 9:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Altoona proves the numbers
Can’t wait to see it and end speculation. At that point “It is what it is”. Anyway, the hype on Alvarez was the Scott Boras hype machine. How else do you get a $6 million deal? Comparing yourself to Craig Wilson?
Alvarez struck out 25% of the time during his first two years of college.
The strikeouts do not seem to be a problem that has suddenly arisen, rather he has always struck out a lot, even in college. Despite the 25% strikeout rate in college, every scout/GM/knowledgeable baseball commentator RAVED about his hitting ability during college. They said that he should hit for power and average at the major league level. They must have known about the Ks during college, so they obviously had reasons for ignoring all those Ks when making their projections for Alvarez. Does anyone know what some of those reasons might be?
That's a good point...
it would be interesting see a similar list for college players as the ones Vlad posted for minor leaguers.
In the case of Pujols...
you had the obvious flag of lack of strikeouts. Lets go with 550 PA for Pujols…he’d have had 48 K’s…give or take one. Pedro…given the same amount of PA…is on pace for somewhere around 140…or about triple the number of strikeouts. I’m not saying it’s impossible for Pedro to EVENTUALLY put up numbers close to Pujols…but at this point in their careers…first professional season…there is NO comparison between the two.
Also…I don’t believe that steroids has a whole lot to do with how often a player hits a baseball. How far…yes…how hard…most likely. How often…nope. If Phat Albert is on the juice…which I seriously doubt…strikeouts are the one place not to look.
Definitely not how often...
but arguments can be made as to how many fly balls to the OF turn into HR’s. There is enough evidence out there to suggest there is a correlation: Steve Finley, both Boones, Brady Anderson, Caminitti, Luis Gonzales, and so on, and so on… Don’t get me wrong, steroids alone will not make a player great. I’m not afraid to say it on this blog but my all time favorite player to watch was Bonds. Say what you will about his A-holiness, but the SOB could hit. During his alleged roid years the man was lucky to see two hittable pitcher a game and he still hit em out of the park when he got him. I think the biggest impact of roids is on a players longevity and the ability to recover faster and put up with the grind of a 162 game season. Bonds is a classic example. He was a HOFer in his own right then sometime around the 95’ season he injury bug bit him. He couldn’ stay on the field for the next few seasons and watched his peers (Mcquire ,Sosa) steal the limelight. Then miraculously, his head grew three sizes larger and he rarely missed a game and the rest as they say is history.
+1 on Bonds
I agree with everything you said. Greatest player EVER to wear a Pirate uniform. He was the biggest A-Hole and he treated me like s**t when I tried to get his autograph as a kid. You just can’t deny his stats or for that matter his juicedness.
Honus Wagner
Wagner played a more challenging position, and also dominated his era offensively. He lead the league in OPS eight times, and in stolen bases five times.
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jun 23, 2009 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions
+1 on Wagner.
I’d also give Clemente the nod over Bonds if we’re going purely with stats as a Pirate.
www.sixtyftsixin.com
by Sixty Feet, Six Inches on Jun 24, 2009 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Or like this?
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jun 22, 2009 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions
22% in the minors is fine.
The issue is that 25% in the minors often becomes 30+% in the majors, at which point it becomes tough to retain a workable OBP.
That's A Difference Of Seven Percent
22% is not the same as 29%. Not even close. Seven percent is a lot. Would you think that a guy who bats .245 is essentially as good as a guy who bats .315? No way. And that’s a difference of seven percent too.
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jun 23, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Upton was under 25% in the minors...
…in all but his final season, when he had a grand total of 61 AB.
By year/level:
2006/A: 21.9%, 438 AB
2007/A+: 22.2%, 126 AB
2007/AA: 19.7%, 259 AB
2008/AAA: 42.6%, 61 AB
For his minor league career as a whole, that’s a 22.7% K in 884 AB.
Now, if you want a young CF with a negative indicator...
…look at Cameron Maybin.
2006: 30.1%, 385 AB
2007: 28.2%, 323 AB
2008: 31.8%, 390 AB
2009: 16.7%, 120 AB
Unsurprisingly, given his high K-rate in the low minors, he’s struggled in his transition to the majors, with a .242 BA and 60 K in 165 AB.
Perrotto sure likes Pedro
Spring training instructor and former All-Star catcher Manny Sanguillen compared Alvarez to legendary Pirates Hall of Fame slugger Willie Stargell back in February. I totally agreed with that assessment from the first time I watched Alvarez take batting practice. I will be honored to be in Cooperstown on the day he is inducted.
http://www.piratesreport.com/page/blogs.detail/display/141/Farm-may-finally-be-bountiful.html
What's up with
annointing Cutch and Alvarez as first ballot HOF’s with less than 100 MLB ABs. Are we bat s**t?
I just think
that we’re so bereft of talent in general that any iota of actual baseball skill turns us into gushing school girls….
I'm droppin' flava, my behavior is hereditary--but my technique is very necessary.
by phillybucco on Jun 23, 2009 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions
It's not a new phenomenon.
Remember Woody Huyke saying that Chad Hermansen could walk on water? And in this 1987 article, you’ve got 18-year-old Mark Merchant being compared to Eric Davis and Pete Rose.
This whole discussion.....
is getting silly. Two people who shouldn’t make comparisons about young talent 1.) Fans who have never seen the guy play 2.) MLB players past or present. Their is so much evidence in every sport that players are terrible at assessing talent—their own and others. Let’s quit speculating about why he will or won’t be and watch the next 80 games in Altoona and make a slightly more informed judgment about what he appears to be.
The voice of reason?
There’s no place for that here.
;-)
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jun 23, 2009 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I Think Stats Count
I’ve never seen the guy play, but I think I can still have a decent opinion on him. I’ve never seen Babe Ruth play either, and we all have opinions about him.
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jun 23, 2009 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Yea.....
Same body of work……hmmmm, let’s see Babe played 22 seasons and had over 10,000 MLB plate appearances. Pedro has four college seasons against various levels of competition, the last being somewhat derailed by a hamate bone injury, and 243 at bats at the Class A level. I’m not sure that The Babe the best example you could have used.
I’m certainly not saying stats and projections are worthless. But, I’m not sure your opinion based on 243 at bats at Lynchburg is of any greater value than that of countless scounts and others who saw him as a top three talent in last year’s draft (also see LaRoche, Andy: major league sample size coming into the season and first 18 at bats this year). I’m saying virtually every point has been made now, many of them salient. Let’s step back and see what happens rather than continuing to debate whether anybody who ever struck out over 25% of the time in Class A ever had a productive major league career. After his first 150 at bats at Altoona we can start all over again.
And another point I think is worth mentioning. I keep hearing how terrible minor league fields are and how that is largely responsible for many errors that guys commit. I’ve been to a lot of minor league parks and, while they certainly aren’t groomed like PNC, almost all the ones I’ve seen are in damn good shape, not exactly the sandlots of yesteryear. Maybe we need to start categorizing errors and into fielding errors and throwing errors. I think fields are way less to blame than some others seem to think.
What about Grossman?
He’s playing in A ball this year and he’s struck out 84 times in 237 at bats or about 33% of the time. Is this another player we should be worried about? Or is his being 3 years younger than Alvarez and only playing one level below him make it less relevant? Unlike Alvarez though, his strikeout numbers have come down this month, he’s only striking out 25% of the time this month so far. Compare that to Nate McLouth at the same age in the same league, he only struck out 15% of the time.
Yeah, it's a concern there, too.
Though it’s encouraging that he appears to be making progress in his approach as the year progresses.
Personally
I’m willing to cut him a little more slack because he’s very young. Players who are Alvarez’ age, though, who haven’t learn to not strike out all the time yet, seldom seem to ever learn.
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jun 24, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Looking at his college numbers
Not entirely sure if someone has already mentioned this, but if you look at his college stats (I simply used WTM’s stats on the sidebar of the homepage), it is evident he struck out alot in college, between 20-25% his first two years. On a somewhat positive note he dropped his strikeouts to below 20% his final year at Vandy, but also hit noticeably less HR’s. The decrease in power obviously comes from his broken hamate bone along with 50 less AB’s, and I wonder if Pedro changed his approach and that helped him strikeout at a manageable rate. Does anyone have any knowledge on this?
On a sidenote, he obviously was facing college pitching, but it was SEC pitching and I’m sure it was fairly comparable to pitching in High A ball, so lets see what he can do at Altoona. His first day wasn’t too promising, but it was one day.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jun 24, 2009 3:49 PM EDT reply actions
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