Report: Pirates interested in RHP Luis Ayala
by Alleghenys on Jun 24, 2009 11:15 AM EDT
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The Star-Tribune is reporting that the Pirates are interested in trading for Twins RHP Luis Ayala, who was designated for assignment this week. Ayala, 31, joined Minnesota on a 1-year, $1.3 million deal in the offseason, with the intention of being the eighth-inning setup guy for closer Joe Nathan. In 32.3 innings this year, he had a 4.18 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 21 K and 8 BB, but complained about being used as a middle reliever and reportedly requested a trade.
It makes sense for Huntington to inquire, given the health issues of Yates and Hansen and the sporadic ineffectiveness of some other relievers. Ayala had some very good seasons from 2003-2005 and was decent in 2007 after returning from 2006 Tommy John surgery, but he struggled last year with a 5.74 ERA and 1.46 WHIP with the Nationals and Mets.
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I truly hope this doesn’t become the prelude to a Capps deal. And if this isn’t why the PBC acquires him, then I don’t understand the logic behind it. An expensive, crappy middle reliever. Not what’s gonna put this team over the top.
Hey, an out is an out - unless you're Mario, in which case it's probably two outs. -UtesFan89
by wg1of5 on Jun 24, 2009 11:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The Houston Astros?
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by UtesFan89 on Jun 24, 2009 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Anything. Bringing in Ayala does nothing, except force us to pay out about $1M and taking away innings from younger (and likely better) players who could use it, such as Chavez, Jackson, and Meek.
Hey, an out is an out - unless you're Mario, in which case it's probably two outs. -UtesFan89
by wg1of5 on Jun 24, 2009 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Clarify?
If you trade for a guy that was DFA’d, do you have to pay his full salary?
by mak_DC on Jun 24, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I haven’t seen anything that indicates that the trading of a DFA’d player goes any differently than a normal trade.
Hey, an out is an out - unless you're Mario, in which case it's probably two outs. -UtesFan89
by wg1of5 on Jun 24, 2009 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It doesn’t, but the Pirates should be able to get the Twins to cough up part of his salary in a deal. If he clears waivers, the Twins are stuck with all of it.
by WTM on Jun 24, 2009 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Capps
Are you saying that you hope the Pirates don’t trade Capps?
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jun 24, 2009 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m saying I don’t want to trade Capps for little-to-nothing (which is what we would get for a fairly inexperienced closer with an ERA near 5) and replace him with Ayala. Capps is worth more than what we could trade him for, and Ayala is just terrible.
Hey, an out is an out - unless you're Mario, in which case it's probably two outs. -UtesFan89
by wg1of5 on Jun 24, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe, But
Hrm. Well, I agree that selling low is a bad idea. I just don’t know if Capps is ever gonna get any better. He was okay in his first full year, good in his second, then just okay again in his third, and this year he sucks. He may be a flameout. It might be best to get what we can for him before he gets any worse and we get nothing.
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jun 24, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Come on....
his ERA isn’t good, but that will happen with relievers who have a couple of bad outings. I’m not taking a strong stance on Capps, but he had one outing where he gave up four runs and another where he gave up three. Sabathia had the same issues getting shelled in his first five starts, but he throws 250 innings so he can work it down. Capps ERA isn’t going to come down much unless he throws a bunch of cleans sheets. But, that doesn’t mean he sucks. Let’s at least look at the evidence, okay?
by dtoddwin on Jun 24, 2009 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If We Ignore When He Sucks, He's Actually Good
That seems to be what you’re saying. It doesn’t make any sense to me.
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jun 24, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That doesn’t really help us much. Just because we know (or rather, think) that his ERA is not representative of his value doesn’t mean other teams do. It’s hard to imagine anyone giving anything of value up for Capps – in fact, most teams probably do not view him as a closer for their respective ‘pens at all. I’d rather keep Capps (for this season, at least) than deal him for some paltry return and bring in a expensive journeyman like Ayala to replace him.
Hey, an out is an out - unless you're Mario, in which case it's probably two outs. -UtesFan89
by wg1of5 on Jun 24, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Reply was to dtoddwin, if that needed clarified.
Hey, an out is an out - unless you're Mario, in which case it's probably two outs. -UtesFan89
by wg1of5 on Jun 24, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Let's talk hypothetical, not Capps....
Are you actually making the argument that another front office can’t look at a player’s game log, a starter like David Price who game up a bunch of runs in a few innings last nigh, and see that one bad outing is skewing his statistics? I can do it, you can do it, but they can’t? That’s asinine.
Not that they would rely on such a simple analysis, but for you to suggest that other teams don’t know virtually everything about every player in the majors and many in the minors is ignorant. And just for the record Ayala would cost about $700,000 for the balance of the year. That would be the opposite of “expensive.”
by dtoddwin on Jun 24, 2009 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It doesn't mean that other teams don't, either.
Put him on the market, and if you don’t like any of the offers, don’t trade him. It’s that simple.
by Vlad on Jun 24, 2009 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the logic is...
that the bullpen is a mess. Yates and Hansen are on the DL with seemingly no end in sight (and when they do return “meh”…) If they are going to continue running Snell out there every 5 days to kill the bullpen then they are going to need to do more than hope Yates can avoid another set back or that Donnie Veal wakes up one morning at the Indianapolis Airport Marriott having developed control in his sleep.
There is more than enough cannon fodder (or Littlefield Fodder that is) in the system to toss at the Twins to secure Ayala at frankly little cost.
by Mick Kraut on Jun 24, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Or, if he starts acting like the
8th-inning pitcher he wants to be, maybe it’s the prelude to a Grabow deal?
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by UtesFan89 on Jun 24, 2009 12:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Or maybe the Bucs are realizing that Grabow IS NOT a setup man and should be used only as a situational lefty, something some folks on here have been saying for a while now. Case and point, the 3 run bomb he gave up the the Rockies that tied the game on Saturday night to A RIGHT HANDER!
by biglar33 on Jun 24, 2009 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, but it was also an 0-2 fastball right down the middle. Righty or lefty, that ball was going to get a hit a loooooong way.
by mspirate on Jun 24, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Changing my opinion on Capps.....
I haven’t been the biggest Capps fan over the last twelve months. I’ve written this before, he sits mid 90s with his fastball and has great command, but his fastball is flat with very little movement. And he rarely, if ever, threw his slider behind in the count or to get a strikeout.
However, that has changed dramatically over the last two-three weeks from the outings I have seen (and I haven’t seen them all). Against the Tigers ten days he was excellent in the ninth mixing his pitches very well and hitting his spots after coming in and throwing five or six straight balls and having to get the mound worked on. Last night, more of the same, getting three Ks and really mixing his pitches well. If Capps will use his second pitch on a regular basis I think there is a chance he can be a Paplebon Jr. and develop into an elite closer—with his command being a huge part of his success.
If this continues his value will climb dramatically and I’m sure NH will have his ear to the wall to see what is out there—as he should.
by dtoddwin on Jun 24, 2009 12:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I didn't even realize he had pitched
in the last two weeks. I noticed that the pen blew a 3-run lead in the 8th then lost the game in the 9th the other night without him even getting into the game. I see now that JR was saving him so he’d have someone for for mop-up duty down by 5.
by WestCoastBuc on Jun 24, 2009 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why don’t the Pirates just wait until he’s released and then pick him up? You don’t have to waste a player on this guy, being that he would just be a fill-in for the rest of the year.
by mspirate on Jun 24, 2009 12:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It would be like....
the Delwyn Young transaction. A bag of balls, some cash maybe, an organizational player. The reason to do it is to ensure you get the guy since we don’t have the first waiver claim.
by dtoddwin on Jun 24, 2009 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
cant help but think this
has something to do with a trade. alot of teams needing bullpen and starters
by bucsreport on Jun 24, 2009 1:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
A trade? Who would be getting traded?
by mspirate on Jun 24, 2009 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I doubt it means much as far as other trades are concerned.
It’s just an opportunity to pick up an average-ish reliever at a discount, motivated by the Twins designating him for assignment.
by Vlad on Jun 24, 2009 1:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Capps
The recent success of Capps was in interleague play against teams who we play against once every third season. Capps is marginal closer at best. Let’s not get crazy and overvalue his too much.
by vanslyke on Jun 24, 2009 2:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't think....
I was overvaluing him at all. Read the post. I said if he continues to use his slider effectively he could develop into and elite level closer. Plus fastball with great command.
As for the interleague play, I don’t by lack of familiarity as a basis for success or failure. I sat with a Twins advance scout at PNC. Teams know what’s up with a veteran like Capps, Morton, maybe not.
by dtoddwin on Jun 24, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just a little incorrect
The article is a little incorrect. He struggled with the Nats, but actually thrived with the Mets. I’m surprised he didn’t get resigned for this year. I believe he converted 9 out of 10 save opportunities. Unfortunately, the last save opportunity put the Mets out of contention.
by formerdraftpick on Jun 24, 2009 2:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Capps/Ayala
Let’s not be too hard on Capps. He’s a mid-level closer who started off poorly. He has value. He’s cheap and relatively reliable. But he’s not going to bring a bounty.
As for Ayala, he’s an improvement. But a modest one. Use the money you’d pay for his salary to sign one of the HS studs you just drafted.
by Bernie6666 on Jun 24, 2009 4:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If they have the money...
…to sign all the signability guys AND add Ayala, why not do both?
by Vlad on Jun 24, 2009 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Vlad
I’m not sure I’ve heard the Pirates say that they had free money to sign everyone from the draft, the international market and Ayala. But if they do, I’m with you.
I’m just trying to say that I’d prefer they put money into the HS kids rather than an average vet.
I guess I’m still scarred by DL signing one useless vet after another while lowballing every draft pick.
by Bernie6666 on Jun 24, 2009 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, the money here is pretty minimal.
About $700k for the remainder of the season. Even if we assume that he displaces a minimum-salary guy on the roster, that’s still only a bump of maybe half a mil on this year’s payroll.
Even if we were tight enough on funds that $500k was a big deal (and we’d have to be in pretty damn dire straits for that to be true), we’d pick up much more than that by trading Jack or Freddy or LaRoche or Grabow or Hinske or basically any other veteran player at the deadline. So it shouldn’t keep us from signing any amateurs we want to sign.
by Vlad on Jun 24, 2009 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
On Capps
The ERA of a closer is probably the most useless stat you can look at as far as the value of a closer.
Which is more valuable to a team closer A or closer B
Assuming each closer pitches 45 innings in 45 games, 1 inning per game, and each is a save opportunity for 45 total save opportunities presented to each closer. (Obviously this is an hypothetical situation, but it makes the point about ERA, value, and math)
Trying to add some variance and realism, lets say each pitcher comes into the ballgame with a 1 run lead 30 times, a 2 run lead 10 times, and a 3 run lead 5 times.
Closer A
1 Run Leads
-———————-
Saves 27/30
Gives up a total of 12 runs in the 4 Blown Saves
2 Run Leads
-———————
Saves 9/10
Gives up 1 run in 4 of his saves
Gives up 4 runs in his one blown save
GIves up a total of 8 runs in 10 save opportunities
3 Run Leads
-———————-
Saves 5/5
Gives up 1 run 1 time
Gives up 2 runs 2 times
Gives up a total of 5 runs in 5 save opportunities
Overall impact
-———————-
Converts 41/45 saves
Gives up 25 total runs (all runs are earned)
His ERA is 5.00 (Bad Closer ERA)
Closer B
1 Run Leads
-—————————
Saves 23/30
Gives up a total of 8 runs in his 3 Blown Saves
2 Run Leads
-————————-
Saves 8/10
Gives up 1 run in 1 save
Gives up a total of 4 runs in his 2 Blown Saves
Gives up a total of 5 runs
3 Run Leads
-——————-
Saves 5/5
Gives up 1 run in 2 saves
Gives up a total of 2 runs
Overall Impact
-—————————-
36/45 Saves
Gives up 15 runs total (all earned)
Era of 3.00 (Much better ERA)
I’m taking Closer A and those extra 5 wins, even at the cost of a 2 higher ERA
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jun 24, 2009 4:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Dejan’s blog says that the Bucs have acquired Brian Myrow, a AAA 1B from the Chi Sox.
by Suffering Buc on Jun 24, 2009 5:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Huh, interesting.
Sounds like Pearce is up for keeps.
Myrow has a little MLB time on his resume, but he’s probably just AAA filler here.
by Vlad on Jun 24, 2009 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
and at 32, I don’t see him getting much (if any) time with the Pirates.
True Blue Jazz
Bucco Ball
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RIP Nick Adenhart. 4/9/09
by UtesFan89 on Jun 24, 2009 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I believe that's more of a...
warm body for Indy…which is short of those at this time.
by Thunder on Jun 24, 2009 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Unrelated to the current topic, but yeah...
Phillies have reportedly ‘considered’ deals for Maholm & Duke. They want starting pitching, and there isn’t very much on the market right now. (Also the Rockies could be looking for pitching as well).
And the Cards have DFA’d Kip Wells.
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by UtesFan89 on Jun 24, 2009 6:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Umm...
that would be the Nats that DFA’d Kip.
by Thunder on Jun 24, 2009 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nats.
Oops.
No idea what I was thinking
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by UtesFan89 on Jun 24, 2009 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That he was still with the Cards, probably.
It’s a reasonable Freudian slip. You were only off by two years.
by Vlad on Jun 24, 2009 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah but
2 years is a very, very long time to be off.
True Blue Jazz
Bucco Ball
I'm on Twitter
RIP Nick Adenhart. 4/9/09
by UtesFan89 on Jun 24, 2009 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting
Link?
I’d hate to see the Pirates let Duke go without getting something really valuable back for him. Good pitchers are not easy to find.
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jun 24, 2009 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here you go:
Link.
Never heard of the guy before, so not sure how much to trust it.
by Vlad on Jun 25, 2009 9:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
C'mon, V...
It says right up at the top: Senior Writer.
And with a name like Knobler, it’s got to be good!
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jun 25, 2009 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jason Donald made a lot of sense...
…before he got hurt. If they like him enough, he might still be a part of a deal.
Dominic Brown has been aces in the FSL so far, but I don’t know whether they’d move him or not.
Drabek is coming back well from his surgery. I’ve heard he’s got makeup issues, but I don’t know how much stock to put in that, especially since it’s not anchored to anything concrete. Among other pitchers, Knapp throws gas but is maybe a reliever in the bigs, and I kind of like Naylor, though I’m partial in part because of the Australia thing.
by Vlad on Jun 24, 2009 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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