Bucs Dugout: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Network Message: 50% Off: CBS/SB Nation Fantasy Baseball

Jack Wilson Critical in Pirates' Defense

Well, duh. But WTM has a good article on the general role of defense in the Pirates' run prevention, and Jack Wilson's specific role in the Pirates' defense. I'd caution against taking some of the individual UZR/150 numbers too seriously--UZR is a very highly regarded defensive metric, as WTM notes, but it's subject to sample-size fluctuations just like hitting stats are, and those fluctuations can look really strange when you take a 50-game sample and pro-rate it over 150 games. So I wouldn't necessarily put much stock in the idea that, for example, Andy LaRoche's defense for the Pirates last year was 7.7 runs per 150 games better than average. 

Despite all that, the picture UZR paints is very clear, and it's corroborated by the Pirates' improvements in defensive efficiency (which measures the percentage of balls in play the defense turns into outs), runs allowed, and observation. WTM uses that picture to stress Wilson's importance to the team. I'm fine with keeping Wilson, both because his defense is a big help and because the trade market for him has been almost nonexistent. If you can trade him for Jair Jurrjens, as Dave Littlefield could have done a couple years ago, that's one thing, but when the biggest name being thrown around is Chin-Lung Hu's, well, you should just hang onto him. In the grand scheme of things, I'm much less concerned with the Pirates' play in 2009 than with the moves they make to set themselves up later, but I do think it's possible that having an ace defensive shortstop can help the Pirates' young pitchers in ways that might conceivably benefit them in the long term.

WTM's post also shows yet again that the Pirates weren't likely to be a successful ballclub with an outfield of Jason Bay, Nate McLouth and Xavier Nady. As helpful as those players were to the 2008 offense, they were huge stumbling blocks for the team's pitchers, and the pitching's apparent giant leap forward this year would not have been possible had the Pirates not replaced Bay and Nady with better defensive players in Nyjer Morgan and Brandon Moss.

0 recs  |  Comment 18 comments |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

This is one reason that if we can't trade for a SS prospect

I’d try to re-sign Wilson at the end of the season for two years around 4-5 mil/year. It might be a problem for the psyche of some pitchers if someone like Bixler is botching balls over and over. We have a young rotation and if they can’t trust the D, we could see them trying to strike everyone out, leading to shorter outings. Right now I think there can be a lot of growth by some of our young pitchers (Morton, Ohlie, Karstens, etc.) if they can work on improving knowing there is a great defense behind them.

I really think we have good prospects at the SS position, but they are years away. That is also banking on the fact that there are no setbacks.

by BattlinBucs on Jun 30, 2009 7:17 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Good points Charlie and WTM. Let’s also not forget that Jack is also hitting in the .280- .290 range. Not saying that will always be the case, even for the rest of this year but it is nice not to have an automatic out at the bottom of the order. I usually do not mind seeing jack come up when a big hit is needed with runners in scoring position.

Trade him if and only if the return is good. Not just for the sake of doing it. I think NH is smart enough not to do that!

by biglar33 on Jun 30, 2009 9:31 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

"Jack Wilson Critical in Pirates' Defense"

This is something that some BD regulars, including myself, have repeatedly said in recent years in response to those who come on here and say simply that Jack is no good because his OPS is so and so etc.

Charlie is spot on with saying that it would be O.K. to trade Jack, but only for something really good. Otherwise, we’re better off keeping him til we have some better internal options, hopefully after next season.

by patthatt on Jun 30, 2009 10:18 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Don't look now, but . . .

Jack’s OPS+ the last three years, including this year, is 105, 77 and 98, and the 77 occurred in an injury-plagued season. As long as he stays in the 8th spot, he’s not an offensive liability at all.

by WTM on Jun 30, 2009 10:22 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I guess that makes sense

Even from using a primitive metric such as range factor, it appears that Jack handles about five chances a game versus the average shortstop’s four. I started out wondering whether that’s such a big difference, because a ball that would elude a shortstop is going to end up being just a single 98% of the time, and one single in the course of nine innings just doesn’t seem like much. It would amount to what, one run every four games maybe? But then I added THAT up and it comes to saving 40 runs a year, the equivalent of four wins above average. That STILL seems like a lot to me to come from the defense of one position — not many hitters account for 4 wins a season above average, do they?

But then I realized that if Jack is turning that extra chance into a double play often enough, and a first-and-second-no-out situation becomes a bases-empty-two-out situation, I guess it doesn’t seem like such a stretch.

Anyway, good analysis work, Wilbur, and we thank you for it. We’ll hope the numbers are sustainable through a full season, but I don’t see why they shouldn’t be, barring a drastic change in the pitching staff, where we replace an extreme groundball pitcher for an extreme flyball pitcher or something.

BTW, this is twice I’ve seen Duke pitch this year and I just love being in the seats when he does now. The games snap right along, everyone’s involved. He had some good plays behind him, although he also had a couple seeing-eye hits that hurt (one juuuust got past Jack). But he was just nasty with that 74 mph change or whatever it is he throws, and he threw it a lot once he was able to start getting it over the plate. There wasn’t one time last night where I thought, Please, God, just throw the effing ball over the effing plate. Thank you thank you thank you, Joe Kerrigan.

Haren, on the other hand, made Adam LaRoche all night and Jack in one instance look ridiculous. He struck Jack out throwing nothing but off-speed, and before strike three I said to Paul, “Jack doesn’t have any idea what’s coming.” He proceeded to flail at another offspeed pitch in the dirt.

Good, good pitchers duel.

by bucdaddy on Jun 30, 2009 10:53 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

i was also at the game last night. duke had some bad luck hits but also had some good luck. derek lee absolutely smoked two line drives that were caught by freddy and andy. duke innings were quick but he had a lot of baserunners. in my opinion he was fortunate to get out with a quality start.

i sat a few rows over from the one and only dave littlefield, who iirc is a scout for the cubbies now. fortunately i resisted the urge to throw things in his direction. he must have been scouting either harden or duke because he left after the 4th inning. must have been somewhat bittersweet to see some of his younger acquisitions like mccutchen and jesse chavez performing well. chavez especially looked good with some strikeouts that looked effortless.

by johnnycuff on Jun 30, 2009 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe I misunderstand this but

one point on your comment regarding the double plays. I always thought that range factor was assists plus putouts per nine innings played. Thus turning a double play was already incorporated into the range factor calculation already.

by WestCoastBuc on Jun 30, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What I meant

on double plays, that the one play the average shortstop DOESN’T get to that Jack does almost always is only a single, and it seems like even over the course of a season that wouldn’t add up to a whole lot (162 hits? Well, it probably DOES add up to a lot), but if the extra play a game Jack DOES get to could result in a double play, negating TWO runners, well, that’s much more helpful and makes a better case for a top-notch shortstop’s defense being worth something like four wins a year. Kind of like where an outfielder’s defense may be much more cruical than even a shortstop’s because if a shortstop misses a ball it’s a single, but if Nyjer misses a ball it’s a triple.

That help, or did I only make myself more confusing?

by bucdaddy on Jun 30, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I see now, thanks

If Wilson gets to a ball another SS wouldn’t and the Bucs turn a 6-4-3 DP all he gets out of it is an assist though his play accounts for two outs not one.

by WestCoastBuc on Jun 30, 2009 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You said it

much more succinctly, but: Yeah.

by bucdaddy on Jun 30, 2009 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

nice work as always wilbur. i laughed out loud at nate playing in a missile range.

suppose management does decide to try and resign jack. if we don’t exercise his option, why should he sign with us? if the shortstop market is that bad he may have a chance to go to a pretty good team. jack isn’t a money guy but if the pirates pull off a july firesale, why on earth would he want to hang around for the next year or two? if they can’t sign him to an extension before the free agency period they’d have to exercise the option or it’s unlikely he’ll remain a pirate.

by johnnycuff on Jun 30, 2009 10:56 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

If I understand this UZR/150 correctly

it is runs saved or lost as compared to the average defensive player at the same position. Is there a way to get a similar measure for offensive production either by position or not? It might be called runs created per 150. Maybe there is a way to convert OPS+ to get a measure like that.

The reason I ask is that I have long been curious at how players would stack up if we were able to include both there offensive and defensive prowess together. For instance, many Pirate fans wanted us to sign Adam Dunn. I know he is a better offensive player than Morgan and that Morgan is far the better defender, but I really don’t know if Morgan’s great D comes at least close to offsetting Dunn’s O.

by WestCoastBuc on Jun 30, 2009 11:41 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Probably

something like Wins Above Replacement could do that.

by bucdaddy on Jun 30, 2009 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Any thoughts on where I could find this stat for the current season?

All I could find were definitions and a career top 300 list – position players only and since 1955. BTW Pirates on that list were – 1. Bonds 173.9, 16. Clemente 83.6, 75. Stargell 58.1, 101 Giles 49.5, 130. Van Slyke 43.1, 146. Oliver 41.4, 152. Parker 40.6, 174. Kendal 36.5, 193. Madlock 34.6, 201. Bonilla, 212. Groat 33.0, 277. Garner 26.6, 293. Sanguillen 25.7 and 300. Mazeroski 25.3.

by WestCoastBuc on Jun 30, 2009 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Never Mind

I did find it.

Morgan is 4th among NL LFs at 1.9 and Dunn was 14th at 0.8. BTW, another player who has been mercilessly criticized on this board, Juan Pierre, was 5th at 1.8.

by WestCoastBuc on Jun 30, 2009 1:09 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

so i just heard we traded Eric Hinske

for Casey Erickson and erick Fryer from the Yankees. Who are these people?

When are we going to trade Cutch now

by .500 Please on Jun 30, 2009 1:43 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

bucowaiting

All players can speak out especially on a team that’s been searching for 161/2 years.I love they gambling done by hunnington maybe the rest of the team can start hitting the ball out of the infield……………..gobucs…….fan for life.

by bucowaiting on Jun 30, 2009 11:26 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Welcome to the SB Nation blog about Pittsburgh Pirates.
Start posting about the Pirates »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

Connect_with_facebook

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Small
Free Yahoo Keeper League
Small
Pirates at Yankees
Small
Some Spring Training Notes
Small
Yankees vs. Pirates
Small
Bryce Harper update
Pitt20_small
Should Cedeno be Nervous?
Small
trade for john raynor; with poll
Small
Who's our rival???
Small
experienced fantasy league in Pittsburgh....we need 3 more teams!!
Small
Pirates at Orioles

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recent FanShots

Brian Roberts injured, Os may look at trade market
Cain, Lorin out till midseason
"If the Pirates are pulverizing, I wanna write that storybook end..."
Floating Realignment?
"Deacon" Vern Law
McLouth talks about the Pirates.
Freddy Sanchez to begin season on DL
Dumb Yankee bloggers
Sabremetrics Gains Ground With Cubs? Cubs Reporter scrambles to grasp this new foreign tongue.
Someone Might Be Interested In Vazquez?

+ New FanShot All FanShots >

SPONSORS


Managers

Charlie_small Charlie