News Roundup: Some Guesses About the Draft

by Charlie on Jun 4, 2009 6:49 PM EDT Comment 47 comments

Pirates Q+A: Finder's all-draft edition
Chuck Finder predicts the Pirates will pick Missouri pitcher Kyle Gibson, or a high schooler.

Baseball Prospectus | Future Shock: Draft Rumor Mill
This one is subscription-only. Kevin Goldstein suggests that the Pirates might have had talks already with lower-tier draft talents in the hopes of finding a player to draft at #4 who will sign quickly. He doesn't present that as anything more than a rumor, so take it for what it's worth. If that's what the Pirates are doing, though, I don't really see the point. The #4 pick is tremendously valuable, and with the new draft rules, you basically get it back again the next year if you don't use it. Why pick a signable player there? You can pick a player you actually like, and if you don't want to spend money, you can play hardball in negotiations and just get the pick back next year if he doesn't sign. Anyway, Goldstein also says Kyle Gibson's velocity was down around 84-87 in his last start and that he has "forearm tightness," which could portend big arm problems. That makes Chuck Finder's guess about Gibson unlikely, I'd say.

Crystal ball: Projecting the first round | MLB.com: News
MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo predicts the Bucs will take Aaron Crow in the first round of next week's draft. Other possibilities include college pitchers Alex White or Kyle Gibson and USC shortstop Grant Green, he says.

Baseball Prospectus: Deconstructing Mateo and Sano Coverage
In case you missed this in the FanPosts:

The Pirates think, like many talent evaluators, that Sano is the best player in years; this is why it’s no secret that nearly every Latin insider thinks Pittsburgh will end up with Sano.

Beltran 'embarrassed' by sweep
Carlos Beltran, who went 2-for-4 with a homer in the only game he played against the Pirates this series, throws his teammates under the bus:

"The reality of this is coming here to Pittsburgh and getting swept, me, I feel embarrassed," Beltran said.

Big Unit's big number: Randy Johnson wins 300th - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
All hail Randy Johnson!

YouTube - it's over cuz you traded mclouth
So many adjectives come to mind--bizarre? Touching? Hilarious? You pick. Linked rather than embedded because of a little mildly-NSFW language. In any case, this is a pretty decent musical effort given that it couldn't have taken more than about 20 hours to write and record. I love the "three minor leaguers who you said might eventually be above average" with "dumber than anything done by former Cleveland Browns GM Phil Savage."

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Comments

As someone who enjoys playing bass more than guitar, and who’d rather listen to a kick ass bass solo than a crazy guitar solo, I love that the song was done on bass.

I’m ecstatic about Sano, but if we get him it’s going to be hard waiting out those years.

by CptnAwesome on Jun 4, 2009 7:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Also, if Tate is there for the Pirates, do you think they’ll take him? I mentioned this in the first McLouth trade post: I know the move wasn’t done for salary reasons, but I would have to think that it least gives some breathing room, as I assume the three prospects are cost-controlled for some time. I would imagine it somewhat increases the chance of ponying up big bucks for Sano and a draft pick who wants a huge bonus [assuming the Pirates are as high on Tate as others].

by CptnAwesome on Jun 4, 2009 7:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I haven’t heard much about any connection with Tate. It’s entirely possible that they just don’t like him very much.

by Charlie on Jun 4, 2009 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

They won't spend the money...

that will be required to get Tate. Tate doesn’t want to go to North Carolina but is prepared to do so. He wants a bonus that will equal or surpass what Pedro Alvarez received (or in the same vicinity at least). As a HS, unproven, OF with tools, he’s just not worth that kind of investment at #4. In short, no, I don’t believe we will draft Tate. I think we definitely take Ackley if he falls and I also think we are considering Green more than we are letting on. If the medicals on Gibson turn up positive he could be the pick. Hell, I think I’d rather see us draft Borchering than Tate. His has a better bat and plus power potential. Of all the HS hitters he’s the closest bet to reacing his potential.

by Slick1 on Jun 4, 2009 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would like Leake and even Crow more than Tate or Green.

by shayborg on Jun 4, 2009 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

By the way, Charlie, there’s this annoying “interactive” Clearasil advertisement that keeps popping up and making sound. Is there anything you guys can do about it?

by shayborg on Jun 4, 2009 8:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I can ask. I’ve never even seen that ad.

by Charlie on Jun 4, 2009 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I just submitted a complaint about it. We’ll see what happens.

by Charlie on Jun 4, 2009 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

shayborg

Click on it and everything will clear up.

by patthatt on Jun 4, 2009 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hahaha

what a slick pun

by samvescovi on Jun 4, 2009 11:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is there anything to the latest Keith Law mock that has the Pirates taking some catcher from Boston College who no one has as a top 30 prospect?

by TravisDW on Jun 4, 2009 8:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Law...

swears they are in on him because, in his words (parphrased), no general manager flies to meet a prospect they plan to draft at #49. He also thinks this could be a “signability” pick so the Bucs could use the money to get Sano. Obviously with the McClouth trade money shouldn’t be an issue. It should be noted that most other reputable publcitions/sources do not think this will happen. Two different people at Baseball America, one being jim Callis, say no way. They expect the Bucs to go pitching at #4 if Ackely doesn’t fall to them.

by Slick1 on Jun 4, 2009 8:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And for the record...

Sanchez is the best college catching prospect in the draft. He is projected to go late in the 1st round on most boards and could easily go higher than #30. Though definitely shouldn’t be in the top 15-20.

by Slick1 on Jun 4, 2009 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I sure hope not.

He’d be a terrible pick at 4th overall.

Guess we’ll have to wait and see.

by Vlad on Jun 5, 2009 1:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

To follow up on this...

a non-Keith Law had this to say about visiting potential picks:

“Speaking of workouts, they’re one of those funny draft-related things that can be over-valued from a rumor standpoint. Just because a guy goes to a workout doesn’t mean the team is going to take him in the first round. " John Mayo

http://minors.mlblogs.com/

He wasn’t referring specifically to the Sanchez rumor, it was actually in response to Hobgood visiting Baltimore, but it makes me believe even more that Keith Law is basing that rumor simply on the visit. I won’t worry about it until someone says we are in on Sanchez at #4 and cites a source.

by Slick1 on Jun 5, 2009 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That was supposed to be...

a non-Ketih Law writer…

by Slick1 on Jun 5, 2009 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

While all eyes were on Pittsburgh

Charlie Morton snuck into Indy and threw 7 shutout innings, allowing 4 hits 1 BB and striking out 7. Not bad for being the “other guy” in the deal.

by Brakeman8 on Jun 5, 2009 12:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Wow. His bad stint with Atlanta last year aside, I think he could be a good pitcher with a little schooling from Joe Kerrigan. I said it earlier, but I’ll say it again. If Snell gets roughed up in another outing, I think we see Morton in Pittsburgh.

by mspirate on Jun 5, 2009 2:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I saw that

I think Morton has a good chance to be be a solid #3 starter. He wasn’t good in the year he spent with Atlanta, but his minor league numbers show me a guy who had tools and put it all together once he got to triple-A. His K/9 was steadily high, and you can watch his BB/9 drop just about every year. I don’t know what happened once he got to the majors, but his numbers there look pretty anomalous to me. In about 150 inning of AAA ball, he averaged 8 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, and a flat 1.0 WHIP. In about 75 innings in the bigs, he averaged 5.8 K/9, 4.9 BB/9, and a 1.62 WHIP.

I don’t know if he Andy-LaRoche’d it for half a season or if he was injured or what, but I can’t see how he could have produced such good numbers in triple-A over 2 seasons if he isn’t good enough to succeed in the majors.

charity standing orders

by BadMaafala on Jun 5, 2009 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think I read that he dealt with some minor injuries in the bigs, the nagging kind that might just mess up the delivery of a rookie pitcher, but not put him on the DL. Also he’s rumored to be kind of a head case. I’m sure his locker will be between Gorzo and Snell if he takes Karstens spot.

RIP NATE. LADIES AND GENTLEMEN...MISTER TONY PLUSH!

by GTrain on Jun 5, 2009 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He did have back issues last year. The reports I’ve read said he tried to play through it but during the offseason he lost weight and has not had the issues since. I like Morton and think he could be as good or better than Ohlendorff.

by Brakeman8 on Jun 5, 2009 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Strasburg will be gone. So throw him out of the picture. If Ackley is still there at No. 4, the Pirates HAVE to take him. If he’s gone, I would like to see them take Mike Minor, the pitcher out of Vanderbilt. Just my opinion.

by mspirate on Jun 5, 2009 2:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Personally, I think Minor's a mid-rotation guy at best.

If we go college arm, there are several I like better.

by Vlad on Jun 5, 2009 3:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I Agree, Minor's not the Man

I’m in for Crow if Ackley is gone.

Crow will be anxious to get to it after the wasted year and should be a quick sign.

But one thing for sure. It is a crap shoot, even for those who know what they’re doing.

by God Loves on Jun 5, 2009 7:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Minor...

is a solid pitcher but like Vlad said there are better options. Minor projects as a #3 starter at best so it would be like drafting Bryan Bullington again. That being said, the Padres are supposed to be in on Minor at #3. I like Gibson better than MInor if his arm is ok. Still like the HS pitchers best: Miller/Matzek/Tuner/Wheeler…in that order.

by Slick1 on Jun 5, 2009 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Traditionally...

…the Padres like high-floor college picks, even if that means sacrificing some upside. In that sense, Minor is a good fit for their tendencies, in that he’s a fairly safe bet to make the majors in some capacity.

by Vlad on Jun 5, 2009 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Charlie.....

No, not that one.

Charlie Morton – this info copied from Jennifer’s blog:

“Morton pitched seven shutout innings, allowing four hits, one walk and striking out seven. Morton has now won six straight and has allowed just one run in his last 23 innings. Reports out of Victory Field on Thursday had Morton’s fastball reading 96-97 mph on the radar gun.”

by God Loves on Jun 5, 2009 9:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

damn

A fastball like that is something we have been lacking. What other pitches does this guy have? If he can step into our lineup at some point and really contribute ill give this trade a def. thumbs up

by samvescovi on Jun 5, 2009 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He also has:

A curve, a slider, and a change. All are workable pitches.

A lot of people post-draft seem to have reflexively consigned him to being a #5 starter, and I can’t really understand why. That said, I’m guessing that the stadium gun yesterday may have been tuned a little hot, since he’s more often around 94 (still pretty decent velo).

by Vlad on Jun 5, 2009 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have the highest hopes for Morton actually to make this look like a good trade. Considering how many guys have had rough first go-rounds in the majors and turn out fine both pitching and hitting. Be it guys who maybe came up before they were quite ready like Phil Hughes, or so called AAAA guys like Nelson Cruz who figure it out finally in the minors. Not everyone is a Porcello or Price, most guys aren’t. Seems like he has all the potential in the world. I wouldn’t brand him as a # in the rotation, but he has great stuff, so I don’t want to put a cap or floor on his potential.

I think one stint isn’t enough to write him off. He’s pitching great in AAA and it seems we have a great pitching coach in Pittsburgh. He probably has a better chance to succeed initially in the NL central than NL east a la O-Dorf and Karstens (who I know came from the AL east). As I said above he was rumored to be battling some nagging injuries last year too.

RIP NATE. LADIES AND GENTLEMEN...MISTER TONY PLUSH!

by GTrain on Jun 5, 2009 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

He was supposedly...

…both injured and seriously ill last year. You’d think that’d give him a bit of a mulligan, even without accounting for rookie jitters.

by Vlad on Jun 5, 2009 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

when you are in a system that continually churns out pitchers and also being at the same level with kris melden and tommy hanson, not to mention other prospects such as cole rohrbough, it’s easy to get overlooked. Especially with the numbers he put up last year in the bigs with atlanta. stuff wise he seems like a pretty good pickup, and more than just a throw-in as some are calling him.

I’m excited to see him come up, and at the same time give ian snell the kick in the a** he needs, whether that means sending him down or moving to the pen. I needs an ego check, apparently a 5.00+ era the past few years hasn’t been enough..

by jsn4219 on Jun 5, 2009 11:26 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

*He nees an ego check

by jsn4219 on Jun 5, 2009 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

damn this wireless keyboard

HE NEEDS AN EGO CHECK

by jsn4219 on Jun 5, 2009 11:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Was anyone else annoyed by Finder's Draft Q&A?

He didn’t seem to take it too seriously. Obviously nobody knows what the Bucs are going to do but I was put off by his demeanor in that Q&A. If you don’t want to do it seriously, then don’t volunteer to do it…

by hisjazziness on Jun 5, 2009 1:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yep...

it wasn’t his best piece of work and really didn’t offer any new information at all. For a guy that is supposed to be covering the draft you think he could have gottem more than the Pirates want someone who will sigh right away and pitch for us this year….Duh!

by Slick1 on Jun 5, 2009 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Regarding the Nate trade, a lot of people argue that if we didnt accept what they offered, Wren would’ve moved on.

Neyer at ESPN suggests they’re now in on Spillbourghs so I guess I’m happy we got first pick
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/sweetspot/0-3-30/Redefining—prospect-.html

RIP NATE. LADIES AND GENTLEMEN...MISTER TONY PLUSH!

by GTrain on Jun 5, 2009 1:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Baseball Prospectus - Future Shock

Says that potential Bucco pick Mike Trout is raw.

Anyone for Sushi?

Could be a red herring though.

by RDV across the sea on Jun 5, 2009 3:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

This is all like shooting fish in a barrel.

by hisjazziness on Jun 5, 2009 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Remember Bob Kipper?

by RDV across the sea on Jun 5, 2009 5:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Just saw on MLBtraderumors that the mariners could be scared off by Ackleys asking price (6 mil is their ceiling) and take crow. Padres considering minor in the same post, though Law thinks its a mistake. If ackley falls to us do we draft him? do we pay +6 mil to sign him? if we draft and dont sign I cant even imagine the backlash

RIP NATE. LADIES AND GENTLEMEN...MISTER TONY PLUSH!

by GTrain on Jun 5, 2009 6:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs