Let's talk about Delwyn Young

by ILLZ on Jul 1, 2009 11:12 AM EDT Comment 26 comments

In celebration of Delwyn Young turning 27 yesterday, I tried to take a hard look at what we might have here...

The Delwyn Young trade made in April was viewed mostly as a shoulder-shrugger; the Pirates didn't give up much, and didn't recieve much in return. I'm not so sure I agree with that assessment. Let's take a look at his minor league track record:

In 2005, at the age of 22/23, he split time between AA/AAA and hit 305/350/492 in 531 AB's. A pretty solid season overall but nothing extraordinary. In 2006 (age 23/24), he hit 273/326/457 in 532 AB's. At face value this looks like a regression, but if you take a closer look at his skills, you see that he improved. His contact rate went up from 77 to 80, his walk rate went up from 6.1 to 7.3, and consequently his BB/K ratio went up from .29 to .40. The stat line regression was due in part to a .310 BABIP as compared to .364 from the previous year. In 2007, he again repeated AAA at the age of 24/25, and hit 337/384/571. Skills-wise he treaded water or regressed slightly, but he showed much more power and his BABIP was wildly high at .402. At this point, he's probably still considered an intriguing young player. Then last season, in my opinion, his development was inexplicably halted by the Dodgers decision to let him literally rot on their major league bench. He stayed on the roster for almost the entire season and accumulated 126 AB's, mostly as a pinch hitter. His problems were also compounded by a second half oblique injury.

Now, he needs to hit a ton more than he is to make up for the fact that he's playing average to below average defense at a corner outfield position, but I think there's more upside here than most think. After all, the guy only had 165 major league AB's before this season. I can't for the life of me understand how the Dodgers rationalized their treatment of Young. He's a former 4th round pick with a career minor league OPS of .878... and you've given him 165 TOTAL major league AB's by his age 25/26 season?!

As for this year, his line is decent (318/392/411), but the BA is owed to another ridiculous BABIP of .421. While he's drawing more walks (walk rate of 10.1), he's not making good contact (73%), so he's got sort of a mixed bag so far. In light of the recent Hinske/Morgan trades, I'd like to see him play OF exclusively for the rest of the season, as his contract is favorable and the Bucs have control for at least a few more years. Am I out of my mind here?

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.

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No - you are right on

We need to see what we have here. If he falls on his face, we can always put him on the bench to pinch hit. He may get crowded out of the outfield if he doesnt produce so here is his chance. Oh, and I dont care what Perry Hill says, he will never be even an average 2nd baseman. I think NH was just throwing the kid a bone there and really just likes his stick off the bench.

by vanslyke on Jul 1, 2009 11:17 AM EDT reply actions

Am I out of my mind here?

Perhaps, but that has nothing to do with your nice post. Heh. ;-)

My only concern, as you also voiced, is that DY is a piss-poor fielder, no matter where he plays.

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Jul 1, 2009 11:26 AM EDT reply actions

I want to see him and moss get as much time in the outfield as possible. Bob walk was all over Moss last night and he delivered in his at bats. What is the worst that could happen, they both play like they are now, or they both could break out. That would be something

by samvescovi on Jul 1, 2009 11:26 AM EDT reply actions

I Think Your First Sentence Says It All

He turned 27 yesterday. 27 years old is when most major leaguers peak. Delwyn Young has no upside. This is it. He is what he is. If we’re lucky, he puts up nice numbers for the rest of the year, and maybe next year, and at some point somebody shows some interest in him.

He’s going to be at his best this year and next year. After that, it’s probably all downhill. Delwyn Young might be a good player who we bought-low, and can sell-high on, but that’s about it. He’s not the future of the team.

by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jul 1, 2009 11:47 AM EDT reply actions

Fair enough

But what are you basing that assertion on?

by ILLZ on Jul 1, 2009 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Because It's Not Likely

It’s just not how development usually works. It’s true that some players have a breakout season after age 28, but as a player ages past 27, it becomes increasingly more and more unlikely that he’ll have a breakout season. The players who do it are the exception. It’s not impossible for Delwyn Young to have a breakout season in two years, but it’s pretty unlikely.

I think that Pirates fans are just not used to seeing young talent, which is why so many fans thought that a 28-year-old Nyjer Morgan had upside and was a good prospect. 28 isn’t young for a major leaguer, and neither is 27.

Heck, even McCutchen isn’t extremely young. He’s 22. Ken Griffey Jr. broke into the majors at 19. A-Rod was 18. That’s young. Pedro Alvarez is 22 right now and is having problems figuring out AA pitching. At that age, Ken Griffey Jr. had already put up three great major league seasons.

So sure, Delwyn Young might have a breakout season. But he’s not young. If he does it, he’d be one of the weird players who suddenly gets good at a relatively old age. He is not a prospect. He’s a middling major leaguer.

by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jul 1, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions

OK...

I agree that he’s not young, and surely not a prospect at this juncture. I guess my general point is that his development path has been sporadic and unfair, and there is more of a chance of him breaking out at a later age than most other failed prospects. As I said earlier, prior to this season, he had 165 total major league at bats, and his career minor league OPS is 878. Let’s let him OPS 700 over 400 AB’s before handing down the judgement that so many people already have.

by ILLZ on Jul 1, 2009 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions

He Could Be The Next Phil Nevin

That’s probably the absolute best-case scenario for Delwyn Young at this point. And the Pirates don’t really have a better option for the outfield right now, so he’s gonna get his place apperances. I guess we’re gonna find out. Most players who play like Delwyn Young does at age 27 are out of baseball by age 32.

But if he’s the next Phil Nevin I’ll buy a Delwyn Young shirt.

by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jul 1, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Come on dude....

I know it’s not the whole point of the conversation but Cutch is young. Not every player is going to come up at 22, let alone 18-19. That’s just an unreasonable line of thought.

"So you think 25 percent of the country is retarded?! Yea. Atleast 25 percent. Well lets so a sample. There are 4 of us an you're retarded. Thats 25 percent." Southpark; Mystery of the Urinal Deuce

by gorillakilla34 on Jul 1, 2009 10:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Cutch Is Young

The point I was trying to make was that Pirates’ fans haven’t seen someone actually young on the team for so long, and even the one young player we have, McCutchen, isn’t even on the extreme end of young. So Pirates’ fans might have a skewed sense of what counts as young.

by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jul 1, 2009 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions

I think ur underestimating a “pirates fan’s” idea of young. See Morgan, Nyjer aka Plush, Tony.

"So you think 25 percent of the country is retarded?! Yea. Atleast 25 percent. Well lets so a sample. There are 4 of us an you're retarded. Thats 25 percent." Southpark; Mystery of the Urinal Deuce

by gorillakilla34 on Jul 1, 2009 10:29 PM EDT up reply actions

That's Exactly My Point

Pirates fans are so not used to seeing someone who is actually young, much less extremely young, that Mister Tony Plush seemed like a fresh kid.

by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jul 1, 2009 10:58 PM EDT up reply actions

I think

he’s a good guy to have on the bench (for on-field hitting, not off-field friendship stuff… just making that clear) to pinch-hit, but I don’t see him being a “franchise” starter for the team. Unless he works his backside off on improving his defense this season/off-season.

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by UtesFan89 on Jul 1, 2009 11:51 AM EDT reply actions

Don't want him if he can't be a friend

I’m a big fan of the trade. DY seems to have quite a nice stick. I just go to my happy place when I see a ball hit to him. We should have him around for a few more years. He’d be a great bench player.

"Everybody panic! If you have a small child, use it as a shield! They love tender meat."

by BattlinBucs on Jul 1, 2009 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Bench player and great stick

for a bag of balls. Not bad….

by vanslyke on Jul 1, 2009 12:15 PM EDT reply actions

I agree with you for the most part, but you need to discount his minor league numbers for context. He played in Las Vegas in the PCL, which is one of the highest scoring environments in baseball. He has a little bit of upside but not as much as his AAA numbers seem to indicate.

by shayborg on Jul 1, 2009 12:34 PM EDT reply actions

I still don't no who we gav up?

evrywere i lok it says 2 playser 2 be named or cash. but which?!

When we hit you, you don't get up. When you hit us, we get up laughing.

by air holmes on Jul 1, 2009 7:04 PM EDT reply actions

OH, jesus god

PLEASE either stop posting via text,

or stop posting all together.

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Jul 1, 2009 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions

com on dud. lern how 2 spel.

"So you think 25 percent of the country is retarded?! Yea. Atleast 25 percent. Well lets so a sample. There are 4 of us an you're retarded. Thats 25 percent." Southpark; Mystery of the Urinal Deuce

by gorillakilla34 on Jul 1, 2009 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Lets hope..

He learns how to pass at 2nd base so we can trade Freddy, keep him around another year or two, have him break out in a McClouth type season, and dish him for a big league ready player to go with our young core that will be ready in a few years.

Added note : When you say Cutch isn’t extremely young, the extreme you are refering to are freaks like Griffey, Arod and most recently Justin Upton. Guys like Cutch, Alvarez, Tabata, Hernandez, and even Andy Laroche are plenty young. Its not like we are going to be having these guys playing for us when they are 30 anyway, unless something crazy happens.. ala

We win three straight worldseries, our budgets soar, and a majority of them (will still have to) choose to sign for huge hometown discounts. That’s the only way we hold onto all of our young talent (say Cutch, Alvarez, Laroche, and Tabata, Morris, and Locke all become above average to superstar big leaguers)

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 2, 2009 10:55 AM EDT reply actions

Rightward shifts along the defensive spectrum almost never work

[ – - 1B – LF – RF – 3B – CF – 2B – SS – C – - ]

Delwyn Young has almost no chance of being a second baseman. But maybe Doumit could do it when he gets back, or Jaramillo.

by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jul 2, 2009 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions

How does he figure that a catcher to 2B/SS transition would be very likely to work? Are there case studies? I have a hard time envisioning Doumit, Geovany Soto, the Molinas, and the like make a successful transition there. Where does the range come from?

by Gorkys n' Beans on Jul 2, 2009 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Ummmm....

I believe it to have been one of those joke things I hear so much about.
He is saying it would be more believeable that Doumit could transition to 2B over Young, kind of a sarcastic way of pointing out that Young sucks at defense.

"So you think 25 percent of the country is retarded?! Yea. Atleast 25 percent. Well lets so a sample. There are 4 of us an you're retarded. Thats 25 percent." Southpark; Mystery of the Urinal Deuce

by gorillakilla34 on Jul 2, 2009 8:24 PM EDT up reply actions