Trade predictions by random people
by thecheeseisblue on Jul 15, 2009 6:10 PM EDT
110 comments
I was reading mlbtraderumors, and they were having a discussion as to which players would go where by the deadline. I would like to list the trades involving the Pirates, both realistic and unrealistic, and see what people think about them. Organized by poster.
cnnrcrrll - Yankees trade George Kontos and a player to be named later for Ian Snell
RoyalsRetro - 2B Freddy Sanchez to Minnesota for IF Steve Tolleson and P Jeff Manship
P Ian Snell and P Jesse Chavez to Cleveland for 1B Ryan Garko and 2B Josh Barfield
enchinga - 1.F. Sanchez to Giants for J. Sanchez and Noonan.
2.Snell and Grabow to Yanks for Coke, Kontos, and Betances.
3.Zack Duke to Texas for Moscoso.
4.Maholm and LaRoche to Braves for Escobar and Medelin.
Pirateswillwinin2010! - Pirates trade Ryan Doumit C and Zach Duke to Philadelphia for Kyle Drabek SP, Jason Donald SS, Andrew Carpenter SP, and Micheal Durant 1B
Matt Capps and Ian Snell to Colorado for 2B Eric Young Jr, and P Casey Weathers
Now let the blasting of people we've never met begin.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
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I refuse to accept any trade with Ryan Garko invlolved
Fans are clingy complaining dip****s who will never ever be grateful for any concession you make. The sooner you tune out their shrill, tremulous voices, the better you'll be.
Ben "Yahtzee" Croshaw
Ditto.
Ryan Garko is 28 and is actually a step DOWN from Adam LaRoche offensively. No deal.
www.sixtyftsixin.com
by Sixty Feet, Six Inches on Jul 15, 2009 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions
For the record.
There are actually quite a lot of guys worse than LaRoche.
For sentimental reasons, I wouldn’t mind having Garko on the team – he was born in Pittsburgh, after all. But the proposed deal just doesn’t give us enough value.
There are a lot of guys worse than LaRoche, but there aren’t too many starters worse than LaRoche.
This is the whole concept of a Replacement Player and one’s Value Over it.
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jul 16, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Garko has actually outperformed LaRoche both offensively and defensively this year. He wouldn’t be a huge downgrade, but we may as well see what Pearce can do in extended ML time. I wouldn’t be surprised if he outhit both of those two.
by Gorkys n' Beans on Jul 16, 2009 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions
My take:
cnnrcrrll
1) Impossible to assess without knowing who the PTBNL is. I hate, hate, hate seeing people use “PTBNL” that way, when what they really mean is “I don’t know how much more value to add to the deal, so I’ll hedge like mad and hope nobody notices.”
RoyalsRetro
2a) No, not enough value. Placeholder 2B and bottom-of-the-rotation starter.
2b) No, not enough value. Garko’s about to become expensive, and Barfield is a UT IF at best at this point.
enchinga
3a) Not a horrible offer, but I think we can do better. There are people out there who like Noonan a lot more than I do.
3b) Reasonable on talent, but since our medical staff failed either Coke or Kontos in real life last year, it’d never actually happen. If you swapped out whichever guy ended up with the bad medicals for a different commodity of equivalent value, I’d probably do this.
3c) No, not enough value, considering Moscoso’s history of arm problems.
3d) I would probably do this.
Pirateswillwinin2010!
4a) I would do this, but there’s no chance that the real-life Phillies would pay that much for those players. That’s a Halladay-type package.
4b) Not much value coming back in return, and I’m not desperate to get rid of either of those guys.
sorry this is off subject
but dunno if this community uses fanshots very much, but just published one about an interview I did with Ohlendorf. Its in the fanshots section. Sorry to hijack this thread with this.
Freel free to email me anytime at behindthesteelcurtain@gmail.com with questions, suggestions, complaints, etc, or to just say what's up. -Michael Bean (Blitz)
I saw that an hour or so ago and was going to link it tonight, but I’m happy to promote the fanpost. Good interview.
Actually, I deleted yours and made one of my own. The whole fanpost-promoting-your-own-work thing is a genre I’m trying not to encourage, although we’ve had a couple of very good ones recently.
cool, sorry
Wasnt sure about your rules here.
Thanks for the link.
Freel free to email me anytime at behindthesteelcurtain@gmail.com with questions, suggestions, complaints, etc, or to just say what's up. -Michael Bean (Blitz)
by Michael Bean on Jul 15, 2009 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Love Escobar and Medlen, but that trade doesn’t help the Braves at all because they don’t need starting pitching.
Give me Carlos Gonzalez instead of Eric Young, and we could have a deal for Snell and Capps.
Kyle Drabek is an elite prospect, but I think the Phillies realize this as well which means like Vlad said he’ll be in a package for an elite talent.
by Gorkys n' Beans on Jul 15, 2009 7:13 PM EDT reply actions
Cheese...
since you are talking about people blasting people they’ve never met…Where are YOUR views on the proposed trade?? If you don’t have any views…why create the post?
Well I do have my own views, but I already know those, so I would like to know some other views. And I respect the opinions of most people on these boards and would like to get a bit of discussion going.
by thecheeseisblue on Jul 15, 2009 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Throw my two cents into the mix....
MINN gets: Freddy Sanchez (Majority of contract)
PITT gets: Mulvey and Tolleson
SFG gets: Zach Duke and Adam LaRoche
PITT gets: Villalona, Adrianza, Sosa
No basis here, but….
Yankees get: Ryan Doumit, John Grabow, and Ian Snell
Pirates get: Austin Romine, Phil Hughes, and Phil Coke
Our best chance to get Phil Hughes...
…was with McLouth this offseason. Now I just don’t think we have the chips right now. He’s currently the Yankees second best reliever to Rivera.
by Gorkys n' Beans on Jul 15, 2009 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions
We could get him
If we gave Capps and Gorkys, I think it could work.
Trading Gorkys...
would be dumb. He doesn’t have much value right NOW, and he still has some potential.
Analysis
1) I could live with this, though I don’t love it. I like Mulvey more than most, and I like Tolleson less than most, so that sort of balances out.
2) This is reasonable. Very high-risk package, though.
3) I really have no idea what to think of this, to be honest. I doubt we’ll see Doumit traded any time soon due to lingering concern over this wrist, and as noted above, I’m not sure that the team hasn’t “put a Milo” on Coke. And would NY really trade Hughes?
The important question for the Giants deal is, do Zach Duke and Adam LaRoche help the Giants right now? I’d argue no, especially LaRoche.
by Gorkys n' Beans on Jul 15, 2009 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions
According to WAR, you’re right. LaRoche is worse than the guy they have right now.
But he is a small improvement hitting-wise. And G.Ms. don’t always make the right move. Sometimes they do the wrong thing. So who knows what will happen until it happens?
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jul 15, 2009 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Easy to do the wrong thing with LaRoche
Whether you or I agree, A LOT of people believe LaRoche is a lock to put up great second half numbers every year.
He better get moving then.
Since the Pirates game number 82…the start of the 2nd half of the schedule…Adam is 1-22 with 1 walk. That produces slash numbers of .045/.087/.045 for an OPS of .132.
Well, a big part of LaRoche’s second-half surge has been his July performance, and so far in this July, he’s just awful.
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jul 16, 2009 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I am sure...
he can read game logs on baseball-reference.com just as easily as I can.
My Thoughts
I think we trade Snell and Capps to the Rox for EYJ.
We will also sell high on Duke, and we’ll get Derek Holland and more from Texas.
I hope we sell Grabow, Doumit, Big LaRoche, Sanchez, and Wilson too so we can get BRYCE HARPER!!!!!!
I don’t really know for sure what we could get, but I want to do a post later on comparing the Pirates to the Rays… 2012 Pirates that is, even though I hate those comparisons.
That post would be out on a limb...
because I think it’s impossible to hazard even a decent guess at who will be left in the system in 2012…based on moves over the past 12 months. Once I get past Cutch, Pedro and Lincoln…I’m not sure anyone currently on the roster is here in 3 years.
I could see
Andy LaRoche possibly sticking around.
by thecheeseisblue on Jul 15, 2009 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Yea...
unless we somehow get a better thirdbaseman. Maybe if we get Bryce Harper we move him to third so we can keep Tony Sanchez at catcher :)
Duke/Maholm and Texas
In a recent story, John Perrotto — yes, I’ve already considered the source — wrote something about the Pirates acquiring the Rangers’ Derek Holland or Martin Perez and another prospect for Duke or Maholm.
http://www.piratesreport.com/page/blogs.detail/display/163/The-rumor-mill-keeps-on-turning.html
Is this realistic? And if another player is part of the deal, would you ask for Chris Davis, even if it meant possibly kicking in another piece? Or are his contact issues just too much to overcome?
I would probably do Holland/Davis or Perez/Davis for Duke and another smaller piece like a bullpen arm.
by Gorkys n' Beans on Jul 15, 2009 8:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Holland
I think im higher on Holland then most, but he is considered a top 10 prospect by a few publications, so i doubt the rangers will move him for Duke.
by BuccoBrigade on Jul 15, 2009 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd love to have Holland
but keep in mind one thing
HE WAS RUSHED!
He had a lights-out ST which led him to make the Texas starting rotation. Not surprisingly he had a plus 5 ERA and was sent to AAA. What should’ve happened was send him down to AA with a mid-season callup to AAA.
If we windup with Holland he needs to be sent to Altoona just briefly and then send him to AAA in 2010. Since he will probably be the centerpiece of the Duke deal this will piss off the casual fan even more.
I’d like to see a package Holland, Chris Davis, and either Kasey Kiker or Joe Weiland for him.
by BadAndy on Jul 15, 2009 8:56 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Perotto
i dont read perotto often. how substantial are his rumors? does he usually have good sources to back them up, or are they pure speculation?
by BuccoBrigade on Jul 15, 2009 9:19 PM EDT up reply actions
I dont think...
we could get Holland AND Davis for Duke. I also don’t want Davis because he strikes out way too much and will be limited to first. I would like a deal like Holland, Main, and Ramirez better.
I would try and trade Maholm to the Phillies for a package like Jason Knapp, Jason Donald, and maybe another low level prospect with some upside.
I would try and trade Capps to Florida for Matt Dominguez(who I think is underrated) and Jose Ceda.
Then Sanchez and Laroche to the Giants for J Sanchez, Noonan, and another low level prospect with upside.
If...
.. we did all of those trades you mention, our minor league system would be great and very deep.
i just cant see us getting holland, knapp, and dominguez. i dont know if it’s that i dont want to get my hopes to high and am afriad of a major letdown, or if im just being a realist in that i dont think those teams want to move young guys.
by BuccoBrigade on Jul 15, 2009 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I was more saying what we COULD get and what I would try and do then what i think is going to happen.
oh i definetly would try for all of those deals, as well as one involving brandon wood from LAA of A or whatever they call themselves now.
by BuccoBrigade on Jul 15, 2009 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions
No way Capps ,in the middle of his worst season and statistically one of the worst closers in league this year, is worth a B+ and a B/B-. Then again, you just never know.
by Gorkys n' Beans on Jul 15, 2009 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions
"Then again you just never know."
Especially if a pitching coach says go get him. I know exactly what he’s doing wrong and can fix it. I love trade speculation, even if it isn’t from “credible sources”. This time of year, as a Pirates fan, is MY World Series.
"So you think 25 percent of the country is retarded?! Yea. Atleast 25 percent. Well lets so a sample. There are 4 of us an you're retarded. Thats 25 percent." Southpark; Mystery of the Urinal Deuce
by gorillakilla34 on Jul 16, 2009 1:42 AM EDT up reply actions
I wouldn't touch Davis with a 20 foot pole.
Before they sent him back to AAA a week or two ago, he was on a 162 game pace to strike out over 230 times…he had an on base percentage of .254. Everybody around here was crucifying Eldred and Steven Pearce…this guy makes them look like Albert Pujols.
Re: Eldred and Pearce
You mean they’re not?
Dammit, I’m done with this team….
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jul 15, 2009 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Hold on...
Team?! There’s a team?! I thought these guys were actual pirates! Damn it!
"So you think 25 percent of the country is retarded?! Yea. Atleast 25 percent. Well lets so a sample. There are 4 of us an you're retarded. Thats 25 percent." Southpark; Mystery of the Urinal Deuce
by gorillakilla34 on Jul 16, 2009 1:45 AM EDT up reply actions
EYJ
I like the Eric Young Jr. trade, he is a solid prospect, but I dont know if Colorado would give him up for Capps and Snell. Unless theres a log jam in the system or they start to buy pitching
EYJ...
is overrated and not worth Snell and Capps. Capps alone should get you him and another prospect. Capps is a closer and we should be getting value for a closer in return or wait until next year to deal him. As for Snell I would trade him for almost anything because of his attitude, but I would still try and add to his value by asking teams for starter value in return.
EYJ
The dude is a lightning rod. I would love to have a guy here who has proven that he can steal like crazy. If you have Gorkys, Cutch, and EYJ, you’ve got tons of speed.
Cutch and EYJ
Would be an amazing top-of-the-order combo to go along with a potential middle-of the order lineup of Tabata-Pedro-Milledge-Andy LaRoche lineup in 2011 with Sanchez catchin and hopefully D’Arnaud at shortshop.
Why not do EYJ-Capps st8 up. I wouldn’t lose sleep over that.
by BadAndy on Jul 16, 2009 12:18 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
And..
we’d have about 20 HR total from the 3 of them for a season…with most of them from Cutch. At that rate…they’d all need to be carrying OBP’s well over .350.
Fine...
if we get EYJ, don’t be surprised if he comes here and bats below 265 with like 5 homers a year for like four years then we realize he sucks and release or trade him. Sure, he will steal a ton of bases, but i would much rather have a secondbaseman who doesn’t suck at everything else. His OBP won’t be too high either.
He plays in a small ballpark now and is a felix pie type player at second. He is SO overrated and I wouldn’t trade Donnie Veal for him(exaggeration). He will not put up good numbers in the majors. Saying he is good is like saying Clint Barmes and Freddy Sanchez are similair players.
You guys are way overrating Young.
He’s a second-tier MIF prospect. If he got a starting job last year, he probably wouldn’t top a .700 OPS, based on his minor league performance (which has mostly been in great hitter’s parks).
Any trade that involves Kontos or Coke would have to be viewed with a great deal of skepticism…as it wasn’t made public which one’s physical issues halted the trade last year.
Twins trade doesn’t improve our team or our system…pitcher isn’t performing well at AAA…and don’t see the upside on the 2B.
I see no reason at all to trade Duke for Mancoso straight up…that’s just trading proven major league ability for player control time and saving money. Another prospect or two would have to be thrown in.
I don’t see the Phillies making the trade for Doumit and Maholm…they’d feel like they are giving up too much.
Rockies trade is a doer…if you don’t get a better offer in the next 2 weeks.
Braves traded to get rid of LaRoche…and they have Kotchman at 1B…so unless they ditch him…why would they want to get Adam back. Escobar…we’d have to know why he hasn’t been playing…as I’ve heard it’s attitude and hustle issues.
Best guess…our most likely trading partner will be the Giants. If Jack goes anywhere…it will be St. Louis or Seattle. Freddy to SF…Adam…to the Twilight Zone.
I think even The Twilight Zone expects more out of it's "stars"...
"So you think 25 percent of the country is retarded?! Yea. Atleast 25 percent. Well lets so a sample. There are 4 of us an you're retarded. Thats 25 percent." Southpark; Mystery of the Urinal Deuce
by gorillakilla34 on Jul 16, 2009 1:57 AM EDT up reply actions
KDKA at 11pm reported
Yanks have interest in Snell and might trade Phil Hughes and prospects for him.
I’d do that one PDQ.
Obviously, I’d throw a party after that deal. But it would probably hurt the current Yankees team, so it makes no sense for this to happen.
by Gorkys n' Beans on Jul 15, 2009 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Ian Kennedy for Snell sounds more realistic.
by Gorkys n' Beans on Jul 16, 2009 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions
Here's A Link
http://thebronxzoo.wordpress.com/2009/07/15/yanks-looking-at-ian-snell/
Makes more sense here… Bob Pomp and Jory Rand are clueless
I'm very skepical of
ANY Yankee trade rumor.
Snell despite his AAA success still has low value.
Don’t we enough Yankee rejects as it is anyway?
by BadAndy on Jul 16, 2009 12:22 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Rejects? I hope you’re just talking about the guys like Jackson and Hacker that we claimed off waivers and not the guys that we got in the Nady/Marte deal.
Frankly...
if it was Snell for Hughes…we’d already be reading about a completed deal if the Yankees ever offered it.
You’ve gotta be kiddin’ me! That would be a bigger steal than Morgan for Milledge, in my opinion. If this report is indeed true, make the deal NOW, Neal!
I seriously doubt...
the Yankees have offered Hughes…for anyone.
I hear they want Cheese Chester and a Pierogi TBNL...
"So you think 25 percent of the country is retarded?! Yea. Atleast 25 percent. Well lets so a sample. There are 4 of us an you're retarded. Thats 25 percent." Southpark; Mystery of the Urinal Deuce
by gorillakilla34 on Jul 16, 2009 2:04 AM EDT up reply actions
Not as gross as lekvar, though.
The little old ladies at my church used to sell pierogis on Sundays, and 1/4 of the mixed lot was lekvar.
Turns a satisfying dinner into a game of minesweeper.
When you could package Hughes with Jesus Montero and Ian Kennedy (or a similar package) to get Roy Halladay, why would you go for Ian Snell?
by Gorkys n' Beans on Jul 16, 2009 1:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Apparently the Yanks could give way less than that for Halladay as long as they eat Vernon Wells’ absurd contract (at least if mlbtraderumors.com is to be trusted).
by Gorkys n' Beans on Jul 16, 2009 1:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Almost as dumb....
as the PG editorials. There is less than zero chance the Yanks trades Hughes straight up for Snell, let alone Hughes and prospects.
I'd lean against trading Snell or Capps...
…because it would be an extreme sell-low. Wait to see if their values get up more next year. Same with Doumit, unless we’re blown away by an offer.
by Gorkys n' Beans on Jul 16, 2009 11:52 AM EDT reply actions
I actually think trading either Snell or Capps would be trading high on them. I think they’re both about to go over the edge, never to return.
Might as well ditch them now while they still look like they could be a refurb project for someone, before they look completely washed up.
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jul 16, 2009 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Why Does DK
Continue to mention things like “there’s no market for Adam LaRoche, so the Pirate’s will certainly just hold on to him for the compensation picks”.
Does he actually believe NH is going to offer him arbitration?
Who knows?
Maybe he will. Even if the team doesn’t want LaRoche back, he’s going to be the best FA 1B on the roster (and thus likely to get a multi-year offer elsewhere), and if he’s a Type B (as seems likely at this point), then he won’t even cost the other team compensation.
But
If he accepts arbitration he won’t get a pay cut, so he will get a raise on $7mm.
He won’t get that on the open market, so we’d be stuck paying him $8 mm or so. Don’t think NH would even consider that move…
You can get a pay cut in arb.
The team can offer a cut of up to 20%.
If he doesn’t pull out of his current tailspin, I could see him getting something close to what he’s getting right now.
not me
and it should be noted that it’s highly unlikely that LaRoche will be a type A
it will probably be a sandwich pick (and there’s no guarantee of that, either)
Per the latest Elias rankings I could find
Adam LaRoche is worth nothing in compensation right now. But he is on the borderline, so if he steps it up he can be a type B free agent.
http://www.scribd.com/full/17307814?access_key=key-b51zwnu6cmptu1y7vn6
by thecheeseisblue on Jul 16, 2009 5:00 PM EDT reply actions
who's to say
he’d decline arbitration? it’s a down market for free agents, there’s a number of other mediocre first baseman out there and he has the chance to play with his brother.
common sense says of course he’d decline but there are reasons not to.
oh wait
he’s a free agent, not arb eligible. looks i shouldn’t have taken God’s word for granted a few posts up ;)
You were right the first time.
You still have to offer arb to free agents in order to collect compensation picks.
Of the available FA, who would you take over LaRoche as a multi-year solution? Branyan was great this year, but is getting old, and I bet the Mariners lock him up before the end of the year anyway. Delgado will be 38, as well as coming off a major injury. Nick Johnson’s a good hitter, but he’s as fragile as rice paper.
I guess Chad Tracy could steal it from LaRoche, if he gets white-hot in the second half and Arizona declines his option. I wouldn’t bet on the first part of that conditional, though.
ahh ok. thanks for straightening me out.
as a multi-year solution i don’t see much of anyone, including laroche.
you mentioned nick johnson and i’m on the same wavelength. i’ve never been high on chad tracy and i think delgado is bound for DH duty. i’d probably put aubrey huff in that list, ahead of laroche.
I wonder what it would take to get Jason Donald out of the Phillies’ system? They have no need for middle infield prospects since Rollins and Utley are there for a long time to come, and Donald would seem expendable.
Vlad?
I think I read that Donald projects as a 3B long term.
I’m not even close to being up to speed on prospects, so I could be completely making this up.
Also, what do we have that the Phillies would want? I don’t mean that sarcastically.
Everybody Always Wants Pitching
Duke and Maholm.
I have no idea how bad they’d want Duke and Maholm, but if they want anybody of ours, that’s who.
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jul 16, 2009 8:46 PM EDT up reply actions
That was my first thought, but they seem pretty loaded at pitching. They like Happ, they have Carrasco, Bastardo, and Drabek. They have another one too, I think.
Now obviously no one would bank on all those guys working out, but if their system is thin at MI I can’t see why they’d give any of those guys up, even if it was a decent deal for them. (I know you’re not saying they would.)
Well, I’m not predicting that the Phillies are going to trade with us for a pitcher or anything, but I do remember when the Red Sox were pretty loaded with pitching a few years ago, and they traded their top prospect, Hanley Ramirez, for a pitcher.
It happens. Teams always want more pitching.
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jul 16, 2009 9:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Didn’t the Red Sox get Beckett as part of that deal?
I know this is a gross generalization, but it really does seem like GMs have gotten more competent across the board. Which is to say, they recognize the value of young players much more than they used to, and they prize young pitchers in particular a lot more than they did even 5 years ago or so. (Again: I know I’m generalizing.)
Actually, disregard the whole thing. I started thinking of Beckett and got completely confused.
It’s been a really long day for me.
Okay
But yes, that’s how they got Beckett.
Who got the better end of that deal? I’m pretty sure that the Marlins clearly did.
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jul 16, 2009 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Good health...
for one thing…Donald has been injured.
I have literally no idea what Ian Snell would be worth to anyone these days. Maybe a GM will buy into the whole “needing a change of scenery” thing and the 17 K game. Probably not, though.
I could see Snell going to the Yanks for Ramiro Pena. Sanchez is traded for someone else and Pena steps in to play 2B.
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