Pirates 2, Giants 1: Garrett Jones, Superhero
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jul 17, 2009 11:35 PM EDT
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PrintGarrett Jones! Garrett Jones and the Pirates' pitchers won this game pretty much by themselves. Jones homered off Tim Lincecum early in the game, then hit a walkoff jack into the Allegheny in the 14th. Paul Maholm had an excellent start, and if the Pirates' hitters didn't hit (literally, they didn't record a single hit for several innings after the seventh) or run the bases well (Brandon Moss was out by a mile on a bizarre decision by Tony Beasley early in the game, and he also got caught stealing before that), at least their relievers kept runs off the board. Even Matt Capps pitched pretty well. But... Garrett Jones! And did I mention Garrett Jones?
Of course it won't last, but that doesn't mean I won't enjoy this streak of ridiculous hitting while it lasts. It's especially nice that Jones is a thoughtful enough guy to do this while no one else in the lineup is hitting. The only other Pirates hitters who even managed to look good in this one were Freddy Sanchez, who went 2-for-5 with a double, and Andrew McCutchen, who went 0-for-6 but actually did manage to hit several balls hard.
A few clippings, which I actually made in about the seventh inning:
Minor League Baseball: Indianapolis vs. Pawtucket
Lastings Milledge is 3-for-3 with a walk for Indianapolis as I write this. It can't be long before the Pirates call him up.
Minor League Baseball: West Virginia vs. Rome
Now, before somebody makes some joke about a bunch of hillbillies getting trampled by centurions with javelins, keep in mind that I'm from West Virginia, that Rome is in Georgia, and that this is baseball we're talking about. Anyway, Quincy Latimore has gone 3-for-4 so far, raising his average on the season to .271. We've heard about Latimore only sparingly, but he was a toolsy early-round draft pick, and he's holding his own in a full-season at age 20. He also struggled in April but improved. I think it's fair to say he's at least a marginal prospect.
Minor League Baseball: GCL Pirates 4, GCL Yankees 2
Believe it or not, Mpho Ngoepe is hitting .381 in his first 42 pro at bats. I'm not sure what that means, but I know I'll be watching him pretty closely the rest of the season.
JIM SOUHAN: Twins won’t wade deep into the right-deal pool | Grand Forks Herald | Grand Forks, North Dakota
Jim Souhan (registration required) thinks the Twins won't trade for Freddy Sanchez because of the talent and money they'd have to sacrifice. I agree; in fact, I'd bet against the Twins trading for anyone this deadline season. They make few trades, they make even fewer splashy trades, the last splashy trade they made (the Matt Garza / Delmon Young debacle) blew up in their faces, and they don't have an unlimited budget.
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I might throw up if I have to listen to the guys on FSN continue to talk about how great Garret Jones is gonna be for the next few years. He has been very good, but hes 28…
Correct me if I'm wong...
but didn’t Carlos Pena have his breakout year at age 27? I don’t know that Garret Jones is headed down that path I’m just saying that it is possible that this guys has figured things out and may have a “productive” major league career. I wouldn’t at all be upset if he werer to follow along Pena’s career path.
It’s not terribly uncommon for a guy to have a breakout at 27. What’s uncommon is for a guy who, honestly, spends his entire minor league career looking like he doesn’t belong in the majors to suddenly win a corner outfield spot on a big league team and hit like crazy. Pena had had sporadic big league success before breaking out, and had long been a highly regarded player. It’s apples and oranges. Or at least applies and apple seeds, or something like that.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jul 17, 2009 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree...
to a point. If I remember correctly his minor league numbers, and physical traits, were enough for you to believe that he was an interesting and worthwhile pick up at the time. I to think we remain level headed and know that he will not carry on his current pace but as of right now I see no reason why we should not continue to give him every day at bats. That being said I would feel much better if his every day ABs were coming at 1B aftere we traded Adam. I would much rather have an OF with Milledge in LF, Cutch in CF and Moss RF for defensive reasons if for nothing else.
Season Team G AB PA H 1B 2B 3B HR R RBI BB IBB SO HBP SF SH GDP SB CS AVG
2006 Twins (AAA) 140 525 582 125 69 32 3 21 72 92 49 3 121 2 6 0 8 3 4 .238
2007 Twins (AAA) 107 400 446 112 64 32 3 13 57 70 32 4 83 5 9 0 4 2 2 .280
2007 Twins 31 77 84 16 11 2 1 2 7 5 6 0 20 0 1 0 2 1 1 .208
2008 Twins (AAA) 138 527 587 147 88 33 3 23 82 92 50 5 98 1 9 0 11 9 2 .279
In 2006 he hit 21 Hrs while strking out 121 times in 582 PAs. He hit .238 which was very concerning but displayed good power regardless. He had a pretty disgusting .308 OBP with an OPS barely over .700. Not good. In 2007 he had a 13 HRs in only 400 Abs and had ab OPS over .800. While with the Twins he received only 77 Abs. He started 2008 back in AAA where he spent the entire season where he hit 23 HRs and had an OPS of .821. Granted, that’s average at best but it does show modest improvement and it is possible that his stick plays to our ballpark. That is reason enough alone to give him an opportunity for the remainder of the season given the way he has played this year.
For the record his OPS with Indy was .850 before he was called up so I do not expect him to continue at his current pace but I don’t think it is outside of the realm of possibility that he could hit double figure HRs and have an OPS over .800.
.800 OPS was Baseball Prospectus’ projection. Seems a tiny bit optimistic, but hardly unlikely.
by Gorkys n' Beans on Jul 18, 2009 1:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes...
and given Pena minor league numbers, like Chralie said, that’s not an apples to apples comp. But if GJ is just hitting his stride now I don’t think it is unreasonable to think that he couldn’t match Laroche’s offensive production.
Is that really something to strive for?
"So you think 25 percent of the country is retarded?! Yea. Atleast 25 percent. Well lets so a sample. There are 4 of us an you're retarded. Thats 25 percent." Southpark; Mystery of the Urinal Deuce
by gorillakilla34 on Jul 18, 2009 9:10 AM EDT up reply actions
No it's not.
I personally don’t expect Jones to keep up his current production. I suspect he will most likely OPS under .800 once he is figured out. I was just pointing out that he has a chance to be a useful player this season and deserves at bats. Also, simply dismissing him because he is 28 and couldn’t possibly improve anymore doesn’t fly with me when the guy is hitting like he is. It’s not like we have a more interesting prospect to give playin time to right now anyway. I’ll rethink my position once Pearce is back on the roster but quite honestly I’m not too excited about Pearce.
neither do i
expect Jones to keep up this production. But I’d prefer he put the ball in play more, but i think you have to live with Strikeouts for some Power Hitters. Even Ryan Howard Strikes out.
Not sayin I disagree with you Slick
I was just kinda sayin Mario blows… Hell, at this point I would vote to keep JR in the lineup if he was hitting home runs.
"So you think 25 percent of the country is retarded?! Yea. Atleast 25 percent. Well lets so a sample. There are 4 of us an you're retarded. Thats 25 percent." Southpark; Mystery of the Urinal Deuce
by gorillakilla34 on Jul 18, 2009 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions
What projection? PECOTA’s 50% projection has him at .230/.288/.381.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jul 18, 2009 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Oops, I should have said his translation from his minor league numbers. It’s not a projection.
by Gorkys n' Beans on Jul 18, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions
ZIPS latest projection
has him at .271/.323/.537 for an .861 OPS
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2714&position=DH/OF
That includes what he’s already done. The rest-of-the-season projection isn’t nearly so rosy.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jul 18, 2009 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Those factor in the current season. ZiPS is projecting roughly a .763 OPS the remainder of the season. About…AAAA outfielder or so.
It’s a whole lot better than the ZIPS for Andy LaRoche (.702) or Brandon Moss (.695).
I’m not implying that those two shouldn’t play every day, because they should.
by Gorkys n' Beans on Jul 18, 2009 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Which would be a great point...
…if Jones could play third base or a +10 corner outfield, instead of landing somewhere between “bad” and “cover your eyes, Martha!” on the defensive spectrum.
thats exactly what i thought
i was comparing him to Carlos Pena up and down his whole career never put up numbers then bam rays get atleast 30 hr a year guy… i was at the game last night and its not like he hits cheap hrs there freaking bombs.. somtimes baseball players just get it… thru highschool i was very good game day player i had the swing and did great in practice but i didnt know how to hit in the game and see good pitches…then i got recruited to play college ball and something just clicked and i ended up hitting 430 during that year and the best i ever batted in highschool was 270. i just learned how to hit pitches and learn how to play the game and control the at bat… maby jones is just the same way finally saw the light like a Carlos Pena.
Carlos Pena career minor league OPS: .902
Garrett Jones career minorl eague OPS: .762
There is absolutely no comparison here.
Dude....
take a few days off. You’ve made your point. Hopefully for you he’ll strike out four times tonight.
Also worth noting:
Unlike Carlos Pena, Garrett Jones was never ranked as a team’s #1 prospect (which Pena did in 2001 and 2002), or ranked in the top 10 prospects in all of MLB (which Pena did in 2002, as the #5 on BA’s rankings).
Pena was always seen as a top talent, right from the moment he was chosen with the tenth overall pick in the first round. He was a top prospect all through the minors, and a ML regular at 24, and then his development stalled out for a while amid concerns about his ability to take correction from coaches. He was seen as not living up to his talent.
Jones was never, ever regarded as having that kind of talent/potential.
Yeah…28! That’s ridiculous for Jones to be playing major league baseball at 28! He’s so old. He should be in a nursing home, not on a baseball field. In fact, Major League Baseball should make a rule that when players reach the age of 30, they have to retire.
This is making me sick. Enough about the age already. 28 is NOT old! I might throw up if I have to hear from people like you talk about Garrett Jones’ age much longer.
It's rare
Twenty eight isn’t old, even in baseball years, but his age is still important. If a player is going to be a productive big leaguer, they generally will be well before their age 28 season. There are exceptions, but as you can see from the previous threads, most of these guys had extensive minor league success. Pena is considered a late bloomer and he had 19 homeruns in 115 games when he was four years younger than Jones. It’s possible that Jones becomes decent, but it is extremely unlikely. The only player I can think of who even remotely resembles Jones is Luke Scott. He was not a productive MLB player until his age 28 season, but he had much better minor league numbers than Jones. I’m rooting for the guy, but I seriously doubt that he will sustain his success.
by uneasy rider on Jul 18, 2009 5:50 AM EDT up reply actions
not that there’s anything wrong with playing the percentages when it comes to projecting performance… I mean, it’s what any betting man would do… but to me, it’s kinda boring to say, “well according to the standard development curve this guy should (whatever)…” clearly, there are exceptions to this… some guys get late starts, some peak early and fail to live up to expectations… besides, the standard model itself is based on averages, no? by definition, there are all sorts of data points to either side of the curve…
every front office of every team is (or very well should be) aware of these patterns… playing the percentages is a safe move… but if attributes of some of the exceptions can be identified, a team could get a leg up on the league through superior player valuation… I’m not here to speculate on what factors might be at play there, just to say that exploring ways to more accurately identifying the exceptions is more interesting to me than simply pointing at established patterns and calling it a day…
by Captain Easychord on Jul 18, 2009 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions
You don't even need to get into development curves.
Just look at his performance in Indy. This year, he’s been playing just like Steve Pearce, only with less OBP, less power (same SLG, but less ISO), and less defense.
That’s not the profile of a guy who should start hitting like a stud once he’s promoted.
Seriously,.....
this is the first comment on the thread? They didn’t say that one time last night. I listened to the whole game. They had to watch a team get six or seven hits over 14 innings and you wanna rip them for gushing about the guy who hit two homers? Unbelievable. Please throw up. He’s 2f….ing8, not 5f….ing2.
Hey Neil
put Garrett Jones on the tradin block
i’m dead serious!
by BadAndy on Jul 17, 2009 11:45 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Maybe the Giants will want him
I don’t think the fans in the Burgh will be happy though.
by WestCoastBuc on Jul 18, 2009 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions
He has no trade value
I don’t think too many teams will think a two-week hot streak outweighs a mediocre, 11-year minor league career. Not unless Jim Hendry has a serious illness and leaves Dave Littlefield in charge.
What could we get for Jones?
I dunno. What’d we get for Josh Phelps in 2007? He hit just as well for us that year as Jones has thus far (1.112 OPS in 77 AB), at basically the same age.
-AND he had a track record of ML success in prior seasons, including a year with Toronto where he had 20+ HR.
-AND in addition to being a bad defensive 1B and a bad defensive OF, he could also be a bad defensive catcher.
Oh, yeah, that’s right. Nobody wanted him at the deadline, and he got non-tendered over the offseason, and then he signed a minor-league deal with the Cardinals and spent almost all of 2008 at AAA. That’s what we got for Phelps.
Jones might wind up being Adam Hyzdu v2.0, but he’s still playing balls to the wall and looking very good doing it. He’s got a certain humbleness about him that I particularly like, and he clearly has some pop in his bat. I’m not going to suggest he’s a long-term answer at starter, but he could be a very valuable utility outfielder.
Brandon Moss also looked good in this one, getting on base 3 times.
by Gorkys n' Beans on Jul 18, 2009 12:30 AM EDT reply actions
Ummm...
goodbye Freddy.
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/09199/984766-63.stm
If this is take it or leave it…Freddy’s gone…either now or at the end of the season.
Doumit's quote at the end...
he’s definitely not going to be on friendly terms with Cruz/Bixler/Vazquez/Young/anyone else if/when they start playing major time.
True Blue Jazz
Bucco Ball
I'm on Twitter
RIP Nick Adenhart. 4/9/09
Then Doumit goes too...
I know these guys only care about the here and now but protesting moves on a last place club gets you nothing but a ticket out of town. These players are professionals and need to be aware of the current situation of the organization. It is one thing when Michale Jordan says I’ll retire if you don’t resign Scotty Pippen, it’s quite another when Jack/Doumit say they won’t be happen if you trade Sanchez.
My guess is that Wilson re-signs and Sanchez walks. I sure hope that we can trade Sanchez for a good return, though, because seeing him just walk at the end of the season and not getting anything for him would suck.
He can't walk...
we hold an option. Thing is we don’t want to pick it up for 8.4 million. I too would like to see NH sell high on Freddy and keep Jack. BUT, if we don’t get what we feel is a fair return I have no problem with keeping them both. I will however have a HUGE problem with ectending them both to contracts longer than 2 years with a no trade clause. That would be ridiculuous and evidence to me that Coonely has more influence in player transactions than a president should have. I have full confidence in Neil Huntgton. I do worry that Coonely is a micromanager who’s decisions may be more affected by the here and now than Neil’s are.
According to this guy, the Pirates need to retain ‘top-talent’ in Freddy and Jack.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/9820618/Hard-to-believe-the-Pirates-will-retain-talent
I read that...
he is a conspiracy theory dbag. The Pirates ARE trying to take advantage of the market. The contract Freddy signed was before the recession. It was before guys like Husdon an Cabrera and Furcail signed far below what they thought they would receive in an a traditional market. Times have changed and it would be irrespobnsible for Huntington not to try and retain middle infield talent at TODAY’S market value. It’s too bad that every friggin move this front office makes will be because “Nutting” wants to cut payroll. It totally underscores what has been a very dilligent plan by an new, young and creative general manager to rebuild a hopeless, talentless orgnanization and restore it to the prestigious heights the city and the team deserve and were accustom too. Neil has a plan. Right now he is trying to decide if the value he can get by trading Freddy outwieghs the value of keeping him. It’s as simple as that. THis isn’t a PR game it’s a business decision. And anyone who thinks otherwise is a fool!
According to a friend who’s a rabid Twins fan, GJones never made it to Minnesota over guys like Brian Buscher mostly because of terrible fielding, as opposed to the bat.
by Gorkys n' Beans on Jul 18, 2009 1:45 AM EDT reply actions
With each HR Jones hits and each good game Lastings Milledge has at AAA, Brandon Moss’ playing time gets smaller and smaller.
Cutch, Jones and Milledge in the OF could be very productive. :-)
Yeah, me too, BUT if we can’t find any trading partners for LaRoche (because the guy sucks so bad), we may not have a choice but to keep LaRoche which would, in turn, keep Jones in the OF. Oh, here’s an idea: Bench LaRoche. (gasp) Nooo, that would never happen. Can’t we just give the guy away? Just tell the other teams we don’t want anything for him, just take him.
Another minor league observation
Jose Tabata has been a little under the radar because he’s not belting out HR’s, but his K rate is under 12% this year in ~200 PA. That’s outstanding for anybody, but Tabata is a 20 year old kid in AA ball. He’s been injured and hasn’t hit for any power this year, but if the power develops as gets older and healthier, he would project very well into the majors.
charity standing orders
Garrett Jones = Ryan Ludwick?
Not perfect, but another recent example of a long-time minor leaguer getting a shot and succeeding.
or Nelson
Cruz for the rangers. Hes having a great year and is in the Jones age group only a little older.
Ryan Ludwick career minor league OPS: .850, including .913 and .951 at ages 23 and 24 in AAA.
Nelson Cruz career minor league OPS: .909, including OPSes over 1.120 in the past two seasons.
Garrett Jones career minor league OPS, again: .762, with a career high .911 as a 23 year old between A+/AA.
Once again: no comparison.
by matskralc on Jul 18, 2009 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
This reminds me of a Rocco Demaro discussion that that he used to say about Brad Eldred.
1. He hits a Homerun
2. He Strikes Out
3. He Walks
except that he’s been hitting a bit more. and as long as he’s being productive. I don’t mind having him fill in as a stop-gap. Yes his OPS is a bit lower, but does everyone’s OPS have to be at 1?
I’m looking at Gary Sheffield (NYM) and he still hits around the .800 OPS and is productive and he’s practically ancient lol.
For OPS I do prefer MLB OPS only because it seems that some minor leagues # are inflated or deflated depending on the league (such as the pirates moved some of their minor league players i think a couple yrs ago?) But I suppose it’s all the MLB Clubs have to rely upon aside from scouts.
Career …………… 2009 Season
age: 31 Freddy Sanchez : .764 …………… .838
age: 31 Jack Wilson .698 …………… .688
Probably longest tenured career with Bucs.
Age:28 Ryan Doumit .788 …………… .624
Granted he still hasn’t played a full healthy season without being hurt somewhere along the way.
age 29: Nelson Cruz .782 …………… .854
Age 31: Jason Bay: .892 …………… .897
age 29: Adam LaRoche .825 …………… .772
age 28: Garret Jones .829 …………… 1.199
Age 25: Brandon Moss .724 …………… .695
Now granted he’s only had about 48 games…He did play for MIN in 2007
77 AB .208 avg, 2 HR, 6 BB 20 K’s. Whether he’s matured late and discovered the strike zone idk yet. Currently with 48 AB he has .313 avg, 7 HR, 4 BB and 9 K’s. So in 2007 ~3:1 Strikeout Ratio, where as in 2009 it’s dropped to about 2:1 K:BB Ratio.
Now again I’m not saying he’s entrench in the outfield, but he’s gotta play until someone better comes along and can displace him with more production. Although assuredly he’s quickly become a fan favorite. A Bonus is if he were to move to a corner infield position say 1B where he would probably be hitting better than Adam LaRoche RIGHT now. Perhaps Lasting’s Milledge will displace him or one of the other young guys coming up.
“he’s gotta play until someone better comes along and can displace him with more production.”
It seems to me like that idea makes no sense If no one else ever gets a chance to play and prove himself because Garrett Jones has got to stay in the lineup, then by that logic, Garrett Jones will play until he dies, and no one can ever replace him until then.
It’s hard to provide “production” if you’re riding the pine. If only there were some other way of judging baseball talent — perhaps taking the long-view and evaluating performance over a period of several years…
Nah. That’s crazytalk. Garrett Jones has 7 home runs, that’s the only kind of stat that counts!
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jul 18, 2009 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Moss - not reaqly young either.
He’s 25 and unproductive. So…maybe he breaks out next year at 26? Yes, that’s way better than D.Young starting to break out at 27 or Jones at 28. If Moss was 22 or 23 (and showing some signs of being productive,) I would agree with giving him more time. With Milledge, Tabata and Gorkys all on the way, Moss is not really a future starter anyway. Let Jones play. He’s going to cool off, we all know that. Har far he cools off by the end of the season will determine if we have something real or not. I’d hate for us to just let him go and then watch him hit 25 – 30 bombs for someone else next year.
Even Brandon Moss has a better career minor league OPS (.816) than Jones, and Moss posted that entire age-appropriate levels, even a year or two young at some stops.
by matskralc on Jul 18, 2009 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yes....
It is impossible that MVP could improve or change at 28, we got it. Four strikeouts tonight, we are all hoping along with you. We actually should DFA him because it isn’t even worth watching the four strikeouts that we all hope he has tonight. Damn they should bench him and make sure Delwyn Young gets his at bats cause he’s 27 and that’s what it’s all about.
Good lord dude
Minor league OPS? Really? Get a woman.
by Hitman Easler on Jul 18, 2009 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe
not hard to find. Girly to look it up.
by Hitman Easler on Jul 18, 2009 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions
So if that’s girly, what is it when one sits at his/her keyboard and calls people racists and/or women because he doesn’t understand what they’re talking about?
Actually
I hide behide nothing. I would love to meet you and matskralc. Takes a real man to call one out on the internet.
by Hitman Easler on Jul 18, 2009 11:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I Think I've Learned Something
You’re not a very nice person.
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jul 18, 2009 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I know. Big meanie......
matskralc is the nicest person ever.
by Hitman Easler on Jul 18, 2009 9:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Whats funny
is you thinking that people using baseball statistics on a baseball blog is out of the ordinary enough to warrant calling them names.
But, I digress.
Hitman, over the last two weeks you’ve had nothing but comments about girliness (which I’ve said many times are off-limits), complaints, and acerbic one-liners. I’m serious—you need to at least try to bring something substantive to the table, or I’ll put you in time out.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jul 19, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s easy to say that he’s “unproductive” when he’s on the bench.
Over the past three weeks, Jones has better stats, but we don’t typically judge players on their past three weeks. Over the past three years, Moss has better stats, it’s not even close.
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jul 18, 2009 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Yea....
my point is in Capps’ 19 games previous to 7/11 he had a 2.55 ERA, a WHIP of 0.91 and didn’t give up more than one run in any of those appearances and didn’t blow a save. And last night he looked very good. And he has been very successful over the last three years.
Your point is that he sucks because his ERA is over 6, damn any sort of actual analysis of what his performance actually tells us because it’s clear you haven’t come to understand how ERA and sample size effect relievers and you think he sucks, so you’re right.
My second point is that Garrett Jones has had a great 12 games and I’m enjoying his success. Your point is that it’s three weeks, don’t judge on such a short time frame because he has sucked his whole career and will continue to suck soon enough.
You might see how your argument against one is exactly the opposite of your argument against the other.
Remember when Nyjer Morgan was gonna win the batting title?
Yeah…we’ve had enough two-beer queers totally tease the Pirates. Redman, Duffy, Morgan, Castillo, Benson, Even Makowiack was looking good for a bit, until he started playing full time.
The difference between Jones and these fellows is the mammoth display of power, which could be the difference maker. There’s hitting a ball, and then there’s crushing a ball.
Ha. Two-beer queers! Totally forgot that saying....
"So you think 25 percent of the country is retarded?! Yea. Atleast 25 percent. Well lets so a sample. There are 4 of us an you're retarded. Thats 25 percent." Southpark; Mystery of the Urinal Deuce
by gorillakilla34 on Jul 18, 2009 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I wouldn't say that Capps
looked good last night; the results were good but he reminded me a little of Snell with how far he was missing his target. And one of the Giant hitters got a fat breaking ball up and over the middle of the plate that he popped up. Capps will not get away with that too often against good hitters.
We’ll see but I am very concerned about him.
by WestCoastBuc on Jul 18, 2009 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions
He popped the....
first guy up on the second pitch. Struck out the second guy on three pitches, the first two being called strikes. Gave up a bloop single and than struck out the next guy on a nasty slider swinging. Damn, he threw 20 pitches 14 were strikes and he struck out two guys swinging.
It’s fine you are concerned, but criticizing his performance last night is going out of your way to find fault.
I find it funny that to you, “actual analysis” means that you pick a string of games in between a player’s two worst performances.
You’re right that sample size can bias a relief pitcher’s ERA. But the solution to that problem is not to pick an even smaller sample size, intentionally leaving out his worst games.
As for Garrett Jones, we have way more than three weeks of stats on him. We have ten years of stats on Garrett Jones, and they say that he’s a marginal major leaguer at best.
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jul 18, 2009 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Okay....
Three years of Matt Capps stats say he’s a very good major league reliever. Which way would you like to have it?
I'd Like To Have It The Sane Way, Please
Three years of Matt Capps says he was a very good major league reliever. And then he got injured, and since then he hasn’t been the same.
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jul 18, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions
You keep referring.....
to his injury. I’m not sure which injury you mean. Could you refresh my memory please? When he got hit on the elbow or when he missed ten days earlier this year?
He Was On The Disabled List Last Year For Two Months
Two whole months. That’s the injury I’m talking about.
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jul 18, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Sometimes, good players get hurt and turn into bad players, like Matt Capps. But I can’t think of a single example of a lifelong bad player suddenly turning into a good player like you’re saying Garrett Jones has done.
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jul 18, 2009 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Well for the 100th time....
that isn’t what I have ever said. I said he’s playing well and he deserves to stay in the lineup for the time being. I’ll ask you again, who do you think should be playing instead?
I would also argue that if we don’t move Adam LaRoche at the deadline we should probably sit him and play Jones or Pearce at first because I don’t see us offering Adam arbitration so he isn’t coming back next year, so why play him?
As for turning into a good player, how about Raul Ibanez. Unproductive until his age 29 season.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=607&position=OF
Ibanez’ OPS has consistently been better than what Garrett Jones’ OPS projects to be. Yes, Ibanez has improved, but he went from being a decent major leaguer to an elite major leaguer (for half a season so far). Notice that his WAR has been consistently between 2 and 3 for his whole career.
Or just compare last year’s stats. Last year, Ibanez had an OPS of .837 in the major leagues. Garrett Jones had an OPS of 821 in the minor leagues. There’s no comparison.
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jul 18, 2009 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions
The real problem with the comparison is that Ibanez didn’t play much in the minors past age 25, and spent 26-28 on Seattle’s bench before landing a full-time gig in Kansas City at 29, from where he took off. My guess would be that if Ibanez had spent his age 26-28 seasons, he would have lit up AAA at a level that Jones didn’t when he was there for those ages. His age 25 season in AAA was an .847 OPS. Jones’s age 25-AAA was a .733.
I didn't pick a string of games.....
you said he sucked all year. So I picked his last 19 games. Yes, the game before that he was bad. But, since we were focused on his performance lately, I thought 19 was a decent sample size to make the point that he hasn’t sucked lately.
19 games is the most arbitrary number possible. Pick all the games since his injury. Watch him pitch. Look at his speed. Look the motion on his fastball. Notice that he rarely throws any pitch but his fastball anymore, and that his fastball really isn’t that fast.
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jul 18, 2009 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Now you are.....
just making stuff up. Last night he threw 20 pitches and according to major league pitch/fx only ten were fastballs.
And all ten....
fastballs registered between 92-94 on the gun.
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2009_07_17_sfnmlb_pitmlb_1#boxscore
Even better: http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=4788&position=P
Capps is throwing fewer fastballs than he used to.
2007’s data is obviously incomplete. One conclusion you can maybe draw just looking at 2009 compared to 2008/2007 is that Capps’ fastball does not move like it used to.
His slider also may have lost velocity, although it’s hard to tell that based on the incomplete 2007 dataset., which is comprised of only 30 sliders (against 87 in 2009).
You make good points. Although notice how the movement on his fastball keeps getting less and less as time goes on.
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jul 18, 2009 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s true. He did look a little better last night than he he has this year in general. But his fastball still used to be faster than 94.
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jul 18, 2009 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions
we don’t typically judge players on their past three weeks
I wouldn’t use that “we” too broadly. Right now, it’s more like “a few of us.”
Heh. In the very likely event Jones significantly cools, I can’t wait to read the epxlainations as to why.
Guesses? Ill go with negative clubhouse atmosphere. Once Jones sees the Pirates callously trade vets like Sanchez and don’t care about the team, he will lose the will to compete and won’t try as hard. It will be a question of motivation and desire, not ability.
by CptnAwesome on Jul 18, 2009 1:07 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I don't think Garrett Jones
has ever sat at the cool popular kids table at lunchtime since he got called up……you know the ones occupied by BFFs Jack and Freddy, class rebel Doumit, new kid Cutch, Maholm, Duke, Capps, and class clown Grabow.
The opponents WILL figure out his weaknesses at the plate it’s just a matter of when. Don’t believe me look at Cutch who has batted near the Mendoza Line since the Cleveland series.
by BadAndy on Jul 18, 2009 1:17 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
So your point....
is Cutch isn’t good? Jones isn’t good? Nobody can be successful? You may be right about Jones, but picking out one player who is 6 years younger and a completely different player and using him as an example of something that might happen is a pretty damn weak supporting argument.
Um…Just because Cutch isn’t getting hits right now doesn’t mean pitchers have figured him out. There have been TONS of balls that Cutch has absolutely scorched (last night was a great example), but they were just scorched right at people for outs. It’s just part of the game. If Cutch was striking out every at-bat or just looking bad at the plate, then I think you could say that the league is catching up to him. But with the way that he has been pissing on the ball and has, unfortunately, nothing to show for it, I don’t think pitchers are starting to figure him out. It’s just the way the game goes sometimes.
It'll be the same explanation given for Nyjer's drop:
Before: “Wow, Nyjer is tearing it up. He’s going to be a star. Look at that batting average!!”
During: “I don’t notice Nyjer, so I’m sure he’s doing fine. He’s still batting .280. That’s not bad. Ooooh, a shiny nickel”
After: “NO!!!! WHY DID WE TRADE HIM??!!! THIS IS THE WORST FRANCHISE EVER!!!”
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