Miguel Sano Passes Age Test

by Charlie Wilmoth on Jul 18, 2009 2:22 PM EDT

No problems. He's now free to sign, hopefully with the Pirates and hopefully soon.

Also:

Pirates ask Wilson, Sanchez to take sizable cuts
Remember the other day, when I said there could be four possible reasons the Pirates were offering extensions to Freddy Sanchez and Jack Wilson? It turns out it's option 1--they're lowballing them, or at least making them offers they can't not refuse. Which I'm fine with.

Terms of the Wilson offer haven't come out yet, but the Sanchez offer is for around $10 million for two years, which is ridiculous, because Sanchez is already on pace to have his $8 million 2009 option automatically vest if he reaches 600 plate appearances. So, basically, the Pirates are offering him $2 million to play in 2011, plus maybe a little bit of extra security in case Sanchez gets hurt this year and doesn't have the option vest--but even then, he'd probably be able to go into the free agent market and get more than $10 million. If I were Sanchez I'd be insulted by this offer. If this offer is as it's been reported, then either the Pirates are just making a show of keeping Sanchez, or they're pretending, for some reason, that Sanchez's inconvenient option doesn't exist.

PBC Blog: Prospect D'Arnaud out for weeks
Chase D'Arnaud is out for most of the rest of the season, if not the rest of the season, with a sprained thumb ligament.

2009 Trade Deadline Preview: Milwaukee Brewers - MLB Daily Dish
My trade deadline preview of the Brew Crew.

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Comments

Hooray!

Hopefully this news doesn’t pique other teams’ interests though.

I made most of my life decisions at a Foghat concert... I stand by them.

by Chester J Lampwick on Jul 18, 2009 2:34 PM EDT reply actions

Well even if he signs…it will be a while won’t it? before we see him? say maybe 2-3 yrs….more?

by lfhlaw on Jul 18, 2009 2:37 PM EDT reply actions

If he’s in the majors in three years, he’ll be a 19-year-old rookie, like Ken Griffey Jr. was. 19-years-old is a very young rookie.

He’s gonna take three years to break into the majors at least. Probably more. Maybe never.

by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jul 18, 2009 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions

probably 3

hes a stud

I Have Spoken.

by The_Fan on Jul 18, 2009 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions

I figure we don't see Sano...

in Pittsburgh much before 2014…if he signs. Figure on this…if he’s close to projections…based on Pirates usual mode of promotion.
2010…age 17…season in DSL.
2011…age 18…season in Bradenton…possibly SC
2012…age 19…season in class A…possible WV and Lynchburg…trip to AFL.
2013…age 20…Altoona…maybe finishing at Indy…trip to AFL.
2014…age 21…start season at Indy…promotion to Pirates during season.

by Thunder on Jul 18, 2009 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Really?

For whatever reason, perhaps I read it somewhere else, I thought most top Latin prospects skipped the DSL/VSL altogether and started out in the Gulf Coast League.

by woobie on Jul 18, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Jose Tabata

played in the GCL at age 16.

by maguro on Jul 18, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Tabata also came up through the Yankees system, not the Pirates. He was already in AA when we traded for him.

www.sixtyftsixin.com

by Sixty Feet, Six Inches on Jul 18, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions

I know that

but the topic was “top Latin prospects”, not “Pirates Latin prospects”.

by maguro on Jul 18, 2009 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Not saying it has to be this way.

Just saying this is the way I expect the Pirates to do it.

by Thunder on Jul 18, 2009 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Any thoughts on whether or not the FO

has decided to manage Sanchez’ playing time so that his option doesn’t vest if he declines the extension? I am a little skeptical that this approach is a good idea since it figures to create some angry reactions from some of the players and fans, but a $10 million offer for two years wouldn’t make much sense for Freddy if he can get $8.4 for one.

by WestCoastBuc on Jul 18, 2009 3:06 PM EDT reply actions

They have said emphatically.....

they would not do that according to an interview that DK had with FC.

by David Todd on Jul 18, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions

At his rate

He’d need about 135 total games to reach 600 PAs. He’s played in 78 out of 89, meaning he’d need about 57 of the remaining 73 games to reach 600. Can’t see him sitting more than 16 times if he’s healthy.

by biggyv on Jul 18, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions

September w/Freddie

When September comes the Pirates will play someone else, be it Shelby Ford, Delwyn Young, or another they pick up, at second base.

It’s pretty simple really. The Pirates always give someone an extended look. It will be at second this year and make it somewhat easy to make sure Fred doesn’t vest…

I would do the same.

by God Loves on Jul 18, 2009 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions

I wrote.....

about this April 15th here:
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2009/4/15/838940/lets-get-this-out-there-early

I think they are behind the eight ball at this point because FC is on the record as having said the team would not “manage” or restrict Freddy’s plate appearances in order to keep the option from vesting. The players’ association might also be able to file a grievance if that were the case.

by David Todd on Jul 18, 2009 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions

No way!!!

The player’s association would never allow that and the long term damage that would do to us in terms of players wanting to sign with us (draft, international or FAs) would be irreparable! If Freddy is in Pitt in September it will be because we extended otherwise he will be traded.

by Slick1 on Jul 18, 2009 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions

And now one of the Pirates prospects is likely done for the season.

D’Arnaud with a thumb injury.

http://community.post-gazette.com/blogs/pbc/archive/2009/07/18/prospect-d-arnaud-out-for-weeks.aspx

by Thunder on Jul 18, 2009 3:08 PM EDT reply actions

Wilson and Sanchez....

Charlie, I would argue that they aren’t “lowballing” these guys. If they are offering $10-12 million for two years I think they are offering pretty close to market value. I don’t see either of these guys commanding significantly more than that on the open market. Obviously Freddy’s $8 million option changes the nature of things, but I think you are mischaracterizing things to say they are getting lowballed.

by David Todd on Jul 18, 2009 3:31 PM EDT reply actions

I’m going to update the post to reply to this.

by Charlie Wilmoth on Jul 18, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions

True

I guess we can’t assume Freddy will stay healthy enough to trigger the option.

by biggyv on Jul 18, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah

I think the money quote from NH was where he said they want to pay players for they expect them to do, not for what they’ve already done. Freddy/Jack are probably each worth about $10-12M a piece over the next two seasons, but certainly not ~$8M next season and another, what, $6-7M the year after?

by matskralc on Jul 18, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Maybe not, but in Freddy’s case, that’s irrelevant. He’s either going to get hurt, or he’s going to have his option vest anyway. The $8 million for next year really should be water under the bridge at this point. It doesn’t matter whether he’s worth it or not.

If Freddy were to get hurt and miss a few weeks, THEN I could see offering him two years and $10 million.

Whatever. I don’t want the Bucs to sign either of these guys to an extension, and I don’t think they really want to either.

by Charlie Wilmoth on Jul 18, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions

When you could get $8M for one year and your employer offers you $10M for two, you’re being lowballed. It may be close to what he’d get at market value for a two-year deal, but it’s nowhere near what he’d get from his option season plus a deal from whoever signs him as a free agent.

If I were him, I’d be pissed. This is a deal that was negotiated with the Huntington/Coonelly front office, not the Littlefield/McClatchy one.

www.sixtyftsixin.com

by Sixty Feet, Six Inches on Jul 18, 2009 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Why would you be pissed?

If Freddy’s option vests he is going to get paid $8 million next year. So if they offered $12 million that would be $4 million for the following year or $6 million each.

I’m not sure I get the “insult” or “pissed off” thing. Freddy is under no obligation to accept the offer and the idea of making $12 million during his age 32 and 33 seasons has got to be considered close to market value. His option vests and he gets $8 million next year fine. I don’t really see him getting $7 or $8 million as a 33 year old free agent two years from now. So maybe if he accepted $12 million he would leave a million or two on the table, but I really don’t get the concept of him being insulted or pissed. And who cares who he negotiated it with? The Pirates are obligated to and are certainly going to honor the contract, it’s not like they are trying to say it doesn’t exist or something silly like that.

If he doesn’t like the offer he can reject and test the free agent market two years from now. It’s a business.

by David Todd on Jul 18, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Where are you getting $12 million? The article explicitly says $10 million. And the amount he’d be making PER YEAR of the new deal is not, by itself, relevant, because it’s fairly likely the option’s going to vest. And if it does, the $8 million is a fixed cost, which means the Pirates are effectively offering him $2 million for one year. Which is a ridiculous offer if it’s meant to be taken at face value.

by Charlie Wilmoth on Jul 18, 2009 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Did Huntington say.....

the offer was $10 million? If so, I missed that sorry. I thought that was a generalized number the media was speculating.

Also, if they do an extension it is most likely the option will be renegotiated. So yes I understand it is a fixed cost. Got it, as I expressed above. But, if you are going to do an extension the relevant amount is what you get over the life of the contract.

What do you think Freddy is going to command as a 33 year old free agent with limited power and presumably some deteriorating skills two years from now? Do you think he’s going to get more than $5 million? If no, then he is leaving a couple million on the table for the certainty of at least another year and the desire to stay in Pittsburgh.

I don’t think it is as ridiculous as you are suggesting, unless you really think he is going to get well more than $4 million two years from now as a free agent.

by David Todd on Jul 18, 2009 4:47 PM EDT reply actions

So in rereading....

the article it says the “offer is believed to be in the range of $10 million.” No reason to believe it isn’t true, but I’m guessing that came from Sanchez’ side and not the front office and was leaked to put pressure on the team to increase their offer by appealing to the public and making the Pirates look cheap.

The article also says the option would be restructured which means that it is a starting point in the negotiation but goes to my point above about how much he can make as a free agent at age 33. So while he may be leaving money on the table if he signs for $10, 11 or 12 million, I don’t think it’s a lot of money—he would be signing for a bit of the proverbial “home team discount.”

by David Todd on Jul 18, 2009 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Ugh. No, Huntington did not say it was $10 million. But I don’t see how that entitles you to assume that the number is actually $12 million, as you continue to do in this post. Or $13 million, as your “Do you think he’s going to get more than $5 million” seems to indicate. That would make a big difference. You seem to be making an argument from numbers you made up, not from what was reported. If the Pirates offer $13 million, I think maybe Sanchez should consider it. But so far, Kovacevic has reported that the number is in the vicinity of $10 million. So maybe we could stick with that number, which isn’t just some arbitrary figure?

And no, the relevant figure for an extension is not, in this case, the dollar value over the life of the contract. 250 more plate appearances and Sanchez is guaranteed $8 million, so if we assume that will happen the relevant dollar value is

Total – $8 million

We can maybe adjust the value slightly higher, because Sanchez would also get protection against the possibility he’d get hurt and lose out on the option. But not by much.

by Charlie Wilmoth on Jul 18, 2009 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Don't know if you were responding......

to my first or second post. I was suggesting that Sanchez agent may be doing some negotiating through the media. I wasn’t entitling myself to anything, I was using $12 as an example and I’m just as happy to use $10 million if you think it is etched in stone.

Yes, he’s going to get $8 million almost certainly as is guaranteed as his option vests. So, what do you think he makes as a 33 free agent two years from now. Certainly we are speculating here, but it has to be a factor in his judgment as to what decision he should make.

by David Todd on Jul 18, 2009 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions

If you or he.....

thinks that number is something like $5 million he should just decline whatever offer the Pirates make and move on. If it’s three or four million then I think the Pirates offer of $10 million isn’t insulting or far off base.

And doesn’t it appear that Sanchez’ agent might be negotiating through the media by releasing the terms?

by David Todd on Jul 18, 2009 5:06 PM EDT reply actions