Giants 4, Pirates 3: Matt Cain Strikes Out Eight
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jul 19, 2009 4:19 PM EDT
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PrintFor the third consecutive day, the Pirates struggled with the Giants' starting pitcher; this time it was Matt Cain, who lowered his season ERA to 2.32 with an eight-strikeout performance, allowing his only run on a solo homer by Brandon Moss in the second. Zach Duke stuck with Cain until he allowed a series of doubles in the sixth. Joel Hanrahan pitched well in the eighth, striking out Pablo Sandoval and getting a couple of flyouts from Nate Schierholtz and Edgar Renteria.
It's been interesting to get a closer look at Sandoval this series--it confirmed my impression that he's basically like a much better Randall Simon. He swings at everything, even pitches in the dirt, and does better than you might expect because he has excellent hand-eye coordination. (His body type also looks like a caricature of Simon.) Unlike Simon, it is possible to strike Sandoval out, so it'll be interesting to see how his career develops. It looked like Hanrahan whiffed him because he had no incentive to throw anything in the strike zone.
Anyway, the Pirates got a couple of runs back on a two-RBI single by Ryan Doumit, but then Adam LaRoche came up with Doumit on first and one out. I bet you can predict what happened next--LaRoche dribbled a ground ball for a double play, and on a 3-0 count, nonetheless. The Bucs couldn't do much with closer Brian Wilson in the ninth, and the Giants avoided the sweep.
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I don’t know if anyone mentioned this in the game thread, but I mentioned it in an older Freddy/Jack thread before realizing probably nobody’s going to read it there. The Pirates withdrew the contract offers to Freddy and Jack. From what NH says, it seems pretty clear that Wilson/Sanchez were rather miffed/annoyed/insulted, as they didn’t even bother to respond with any kind of counter.
Some very frank.....
and insightful commentary from Huntington in today’s PG blog. I’ve rarely seen a GM be so blunt when discussing a player (in a negative light) who currently is playing for the team as Neil does in commenting on Jack Wilson. He also states that Snell has said he doesn’t want to come back to Pittsburgh. I know Snell has for his demotion, but hadn’t heard him say he didn’t want to come back.
One has to assume Sanchez is as good as gone if their are any interested takers at this point.
http://community.post-gazette.com/blogs/pbc/archive/2009/07/19/offers-for-wilson-sanchez-pulled-back.aspx
I was just coming back to respond to myself
and say the same thing. That is unusually forward, even for this front office. And not a single “with where we’re at right now”!
Interesting
Why would Huntington point out Jack’s weak bat before he’s traded? Why not wait til he’s out of town before saying he sucks?
Presumably
other GMs can read a stat line.
I find Huntington’s comments kinda scary, especially the reference to Adam Everett. Everett makes Wilson look like A-Rod with the bat, and he’s nowhere near the defensive player Wilson is any more. He’s also becoming extremely fragile, much more so than Wilson—I guess that may account for his decline defensively. I’m all for rebuilding, but I don’t want to watch Adam Everett and some equally shitty secondbaseman all next year. Sanchez and Wilson clearly aren’t going to bring their own replacements in trades and they aren’t blocking anybody now. It’s not worth the horror that our middle IF will be next year just to save Nutting a few million. And those few million aren’t going to bring in anybody to play the corners who’ll make up for what the team will lose in the middle IF. If NH really believes that, then he’s a lot less intelligent than I thought.
I’m also getting tired of him plugging this “internal value” bullshit. I don’t see the sense of trying to make Wilson and Sanchez look greedy. It’s counter-productive, whether you’re hoping to sign them or trying to trade them, and the fans aren’t going to buy it. Basically, what the Pirates have done is assumed an extreme buyer’s market this off-season and valued Wilson and Sanchez according to a best case scenario (from the club’s standpoint). The two would be idiots to accept that approach, so why even try? I’m beginning to think this extension crap really is nothing but PR, and it’s incredibly lame PR, too.
Can we light the fuse...
on this team getting TOTALLY blown up??
I see no way…especially after Huntington’s quotes today…that Wilson…Sanchez and LaRoche could even consider staying around…if given the choice. And you can bet that we won’t begin August with the same 12 pitchers we have now.
Another few weeks of poor production…and it won’t matter in Adam’s case…because he will have probably buried the chance of becoming a Type B free agent…and no compensation will be available. You can bet that if Sanchez is not traded…his agent will be watching very closely how much playing time that Freddy gets. I could barely conceive a scenario where Jack comes back…but the other two will definitely be gone.
Lastings Milledge will be the starting left fielder for the Pirates…on or before August 1st.
I know I read somewhere that it has already been determined that
Adam wil be a type B FA but maybe what I read was wrong. If not, I imagine if we offer him arbitration he’ll consider taking it. I don’t think that his value will be very high in the FA market.
by WestCoastBuc on Jul 19, 2009 8:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Nope...
The type of free agent will not actually be determined until after the season is completed. The formula works on the previous 2 years of statistics.
Info on stats used…
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/10/stats-used-for.html
Rankings as of 7/12/2009
http://www.scribd.com/full/17307814?access_key=key-b51zwnu6cmptu1y7vn6
Adam is first in the no compensation group for the National League OF/1B.
Agreed
The whole “offer them an extension” thing was amateurish and kind of embarrassing.
And Huntington needs to stop being so candid,,,there’s no reason for anyone to know that Snell doesn’t want to come back, for example. Laying all your cards on the table is bad poker.
Snell...
told the Pittsburgh Tribune Review that he didn’t want to go back to Pitsburgh because he felt he was made a scapegoat. Once it is printed it’s common knowledge. Secondly, if any GM in this game doesn’t recognize that Wilson is a below average SS then they shouldn’t be a GM. Again, Wilson is a below average hitting SS…common knowledge. NH isn’t exactly revealing any trade secrets here.
A lot of people
shouldn’t be GMs, but are anyway. Those are the ones you really want to cut a deal with.
Seriously, why talk down your own assets? Anyone who’s ever sold a used car knows better.
I understand your point...
but saying to the press what a player has already said to the press is not talking down a player. It’s simply stating the truth. On Wilson, Huntington has been trying to trade him for a year and a half now, I think he pretty much knows how all of the GMs view Wilson. Also, correction to my above post…what I mean to say was everyone knows Wilson is a below average “offensive” SS. Last time I checked he was one of the best, if not the best, defensive SS in the league.
Whoops
Sorry, I had scanned past your 6:41 comment, but still missed your self-correction. Apologies.
Below average what?
You know that SS is the most important, and hardest, defensive position on the diamond, right? And you know that Jack is one of the best (pick your number – 3, 5?) defensive SS in baseball, right? So why the harping on his bat? He’s actually not as bad as you seem to think – by OPS, he’s the 18th best starting SS in all of baseball. Which places him just below average for hitting, and far, far above average for defense. That, to me, sounds like an above-average player.
I said in another thread a couple weeks ago that Jack was underrated around here, and a couple people acted shocked, as if there was no basis for my statement. Well, it’s crap like this I was referring to. I see it all the time.
Like Slick says, I think it’s pretty common knowledge Snell is unhappy and doesn’t want back in Pittsburgh.
If your theory is that everything Huntington says is read by GMs, then you have to account for the fact he’s saying he won’t sell low on Snell, and that if need be he’ll try to work him back into Pittsburgh even though it will be hard. I hope he sticks to his word. I’d hate to see Snell run out on a rail. Frankly, I wish we could keep him. He has tons of talent.
It’s not worth the horror that our middle IF will be next year just to save Nutting a few million.
I mentioned this in some other thread, but this is the key for me. If I were convinced the plan was for any money saved to go towards future draft classes or saved for some day when we could potentially compete, I’d be much more accepting of not having Freddy and Jack next year (although it will still suck to watch whatever garbage we trot out there.)
On the other hand, it seems likely that any money we saved is just pocketed. If so, I don’t really care about Nutting’s pocketbook. If the team is sticking to the claim that the budget is the budget in the sense that a failure to, say, sign Sano will not result in an increase in the budget next year to reflect the money “saved” by him not signing, then so too should the team be spending up to their budget allocation each year.
by CptnAwesome on Jul 19, 2009 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I think another.....
question is what are these guys worth on the open market. I don’t think Jack is going to get much more than $8 million for 2 years. So I think what they presented him wasn’t at all off base. I haven’t seen what others think he would got offered on the open market and i’m interested to hear other opinions.
Freddy’s case is obviously different because of his option which is likely to guarantee that he makes $8 million next year no matter what. But, two years from now at age 33 I think it unlikely that he is able to command a $5/year salary. Again I’m interested in others opinions. I think it is certainly likely that he would make more than $3 million at that point which means he would be leaving money on the table if he accepted the Pirates offer, but I don’t think $10 million over two years that the Pirates offered is off-market. I understand the argument that he is guaranteed $8 next year (which I imagine most would view as being overpaid), but if he does want to stay in Pittsburgh I’m not sure that it is such a bad deal for him.
I'm not sure.....
he said they were greedy. I thought he was pretty diplomatic on that front actually saying that the two sides had different views of what fair value was. I think the reporting of the fact that the offers were rejected and no counteroffer was made was just fact, nothing more.
NH also raised the obvious point that 3 year deals are at a high premium in the current market. If that’s the issue for Jack, good luck finding someone willing to offer a 3rd year to a 36 yr old no hitting SS. The FA market will provide a bat at least equal to Wilson’s. The question is how far above replacement is his glove when factoring in depreciation for age?
Here’s a crazy idea — keep Sanchez and deal or let Jack walk. The Pirates are under no obligation to keep this pair intact.
by chicos_pants on Jul 20, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions
That's why I wondered
if NH was just trying to leverage their bromance into a better deal out of Wilson. After all, he is almost certain to have Freddy back next year, and I’m OK with $8 mil for what Freddy brings. But Jack is looking at a) a breakup and b) trying to find a suitor who thinks he really is worth more than $5 mil a year. All the pressure is on him, if they really want to stay together.
If they're really worth $5M a piece
You keep Freddy for $8M and sign a replacement SS (hopefully at least a little better than Adam Everett) for $2M. Should be doable. Maybe.
Another trade involving a 2B...not Freddy.
Felipe Lopez to the Brewers. for 2 minor leaguers.
NH has intelligence/guts. That much is evident from his past moves. What I can’t reconcile is the (insulting) Sanchez offer; what purpose can it possibly serve?
- PR? I thought NH doesn’t do PR.
- Wilson’s the keeper, so let’s put the Frodo/Sam friendship to test?
My other question is why do this so close to the trade deadline: simultaneously talk down your players while trying to trade them. BUT, if this somehow makes sense in the end, I’ll never question NH again, well, at least until the next time.
Again....
people in other front offices are smart guys. I was really surprised by what NH said, but I don’t think it will effect the market or how other teams view either player. It seems to me their is limited interest in both players and that may be why NH spoke up.
The offers to Freddy/Jack were fair for their market value. Huntington does the right thing by showing that he won’t play favorite. If we have to sign Jerry Hairston and/or Adam Everett or Khalil Greene for a year, no problem.
by Gorkys n' Beans on Jul 19, 2009 9:35 PM EDT reply actions
I think Freddy's was a bit low but Jack's was ok.
I disagree that replacing them with the players you mentioned is not a problem. It has been pointed out by a couple of different people how valuable Freddy and Jack’s defense has been to the pitching staff. Guys like Maholm, Duke and Ohly are pitch to contact groundball pitchers so their numbers would likely suffer. I know ERA is not the best way to judge a pitcher but it is still the most common measure of performance and believe me a pitcher knows when his ERA is high and it can shatter a players confidence. They don’t go home and the end of the day and say well, my ERA his 5.00 but my BAIP is high too so it’s all good.
Freddy’s defense isn’t irreplaceable, as he is roughly average 2B. Jack’s is very good, but who’s to say that he’ll keep it for the next 2 years or even next year if he is already 31 years of age. There’s a good chance that he will not be as much of a defensive asset in 2010 or 2011 as he is now.
Good defense can be worth a handful of runs over the season, but the difference between Wilson and Everett isn’t from 3.00 ERA to 5.00.
by Gorkys n' Beans on Jul 19, 2009 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't disagree...
I just hope Huntington can find better replacements than the ones you mentioned. The overall improvement in the pitching staff also comes from other defensive improvements in addition to Wilson and Sanchez: Laroche, McCutchen, Morgan and Moss, I understand. But while we may be able to find a 2B to replace Freddy’s defense we won’t find one that will come close to his combination of defense and plus bat. And looking at your list above, the same would hold true for Wilson believe it or not.
Overall, the pitching has improved from last year. But out of 5 starters that have been here both years, 3 of them (Maholm, Karstens, Snell) have not improved under this year’s good defense compared to last year’s “bad” defense. It also has not helped our closer. The two that have improved (Duke and Ohlendorf) have done so primarily because of much better stuff.
The stuff difference is most apparent with Duke. His pitches are much crisper, and he is locating better this year. He never touched 90 even once last year. If you bring ‘08 Duke up to this year’s defense, he will still get torched. Performance is still most up to the pitcher.
by Gorkys n' Beans on Jul 19, 2009 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions
NH offers/comments are all about them avoiding the $8mil option for Freddy. They will trade him but want to minimize the PR backlash against trading one of their most popular players. This and the Wilson/Freddy “package” deal is BS. Before all this, I assumed both may get traded and was reluctantly accepting. Now, with this baloney from NH, this reeks of a SPINELESS COWARD! He may assume we don’t care any more, but we do, for now. For me, what happens in the next few weeks makes or breaks my potentially final devotion to the team.
Make or break time, eh?
Thanks for joining BD to let us know.
Who will you root for after you’re done with the Pirates?
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jul 19, 2009 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah
I’m very concerned what such established members of the Bucs Dugout community are saying by calling Neal Huntington a spineless coward.
by thecheeseisblue on Jul 19, 2009 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't understand the coward comment...
It seems to me NH is the exact opposite of a coward. “NH offers/comments all about them avoiding the $8mil option for Freddy.” Very insightful and thanks for pointing out the obvious. He came right out and said he felt $8 million was too much money. Especially after what happened in the marketplace this off season. Huntington has two players that have value but doesn’t feel they are worth the money they will be making next year. He also knows these guys want to stay in Pittsburgh. My best guess is that the return being offered for them in trade talks hasn’t been that impressive to date so he felt he would see how bad Wilson/Sanchez want to stay by offering what he wanted to spend on them. I don’t believe there is more to it than that.
I think NH is frustrated
I think he is trying to shop both of them and he is not getting the offers he thought he might. he will probably end up with some A to AA formidable players, that won’t be ready for PITT for a couple of years
When are we going to trade Cutch now
I went to the game
and sat pretty close to the field just a little down the first base side.
Cutch was very impressive with the over-the-shoulder catch and the use of his speed on the basepaths.
Hanrahan scares me. He may have gotten through this appearance without giving up anything, but he looks a mess on the mound with his mechanics. I simply can’t see how he will throw strikes consistently. Another thing I noticed was that his FB speeds tended to have a 9 m.p.h. difference between release speed and plate speed. I might be wrong, but it seemed like he had a more pronounced difference between the two than the other pitchers yesterday. If anyone else has insight into this, I’d like to hear it.
Veal looked a little more confident on the mound than earlier in the season. Since we traded Burnett, I guess we’ll be finding out if he can do anything productive the rest of the season.
Jones needs to take a step back and relax a bit after the great run he had recently. I thought he was going to dislocate something swinging so hard.
The crowd was getting into it in the 8th with the two runs in, trailing 4-3, with only one out and runners on 1st and 2nd, and then Adam LaRoche swung at the 3-0 offering and into the DP.
I guess there was a reason for him getting the green light.
It’s a scary thought to imagine a middle IF the rest of this year without Jack and Freddy, but it seems like they are both gone.
Anyway, it’s a great place to watch a game, even with a team that probably won’t win for at least a few more years.
Honestly - will FRACK be here when we contend?
Why are so many people bellyaching about this issue! FRACK’s contracts were negotiated before NH got here and we negotiated before the MLB market corrected. We are in a bad position with those contracts and the FO did all they could do to work with FRACK to fix them. Since there was no counter offer, you take your bat and go home.
Sanchez toed the “its the business side” line and Jack said nothing. Anyway, we shouldnt get so worked up over those guys. We will find some stop gap in free agency or maybe get something in return if we are able to make a trade. Let’s let these symbols of past futility go! They werent going to be part of a contender anyway.
Bottom line; I am not willing to overpay an SS (ala Jason Kendall) and pay a high $$ for 2B that wont be here when we compete. Oh, and here is the big secret NH doesn’t want you to know……when the Pirates contend, PNC will be filled every night and random blog posters who are “done” with the team will jump right back on the bandwagon…..shhh……dont tell anyone.
One good JR move y'day, one awful one
I have to give JR props for trying Veal as a LOOGY in the 9th inning of a one-run game. Grabow is gone in 50 games anyway, and this gives NH some idea of whether Grabow is “untouchable” over the next 10 days (I’d guess he’s the most valued commodity NH has to trade right now).
But what MLB manager would give a guy hitting .100 for the month (5/50) — who’s truly earned his nickname “Rally Killer” — a greenlight on a 3-0 pitch in a critical situation?
I sure hope NH can pull off some kind of deal for Adam the next 10 days (bag of scuffed baseballs?), cause I don’t see JR sitting him if he’s on the team, which is what JR should do even if he isn’t traded. Jones and Pearce need the experience, and NH needs to know if one of them can be the starting 1B for 2010. Let Mario be the “defensive replacement” brought in for the 8th inning.
OK
He’s started 7 whole games in the MLB at 1B, none since 2007. I understand he was mostly a RF in Indianapolis this year. So is Jones a MLB worthy defensive 1B?
Not exactly, no.
By the numbers, he’s a pretty lousy defender wherever you put him (caveat – small sample size).
That said, he’s got more than 750 career games at 1B in the minors (including the majority of the 2008 season), so if he’s as lousy a defender there as he seems to be, it’s not from a lack of experience.
i’m not so sure. If it had been say…Ryan Doumit and he were carrying a 5/50 streak into the game….
would you give him the green light to hit at 3-0? What if Ryan Howard were carrying a 5/50 Streak into the game? (now I know neither player matches down to A. LaRoche, but you get the general idea)
Also, A. Laroche had a hit for a double in a prior at bat. So if he could hit another double, Doumit may have had a chance to score. so the thinking might have been…he’s starting to hit again.
at 3-0, i think JR would have let Brandon Moss hit.
I think the hardest part is…seeing the ball come out of the pitchers hand and identifying the pitch. Is that something that A. Laroche has lost or is there something wrong with his swing/batting stance. I personally don’t like his swing.
Have to wonder if the batting coach is helping the team hit anymore. As it seems like all the bats are fairly quiet aside from Garrett Jones. Compare that to the beginning of the year when it seemed like all the pirates were hitting quite well.
Don’t think Adam LaRoche is Ryan Doumit (not that JR should let Doumit hit 3-0). I know Adam LaRoche is not Ryan Howard, never has been Ryan Howard and never will be Ryan Howard.
Those guys have never had the nicknames “Rally Killer” or “Black Hole.” And I don’t recall Doumit Bingo. BTW, LaRoche did pretty well y’day in Bingo — K looking, ground out to 1B, ground out to 2B, GIDP.
LaRoche could have hit another double in the 8th. Anything is possible (like the double he did have yesterday). But what was more likely? A guy hitting .100 for the month having a 2 hit game? or a pitcher showing some wildness walking that guy after going 3-0 right after giving up a 2 run single?
If JR would have let Moss hit 3-0 in the same circumstances, that’d just be another mistake for JR.
Everyone hoped that at the worst we’d get a standard Adam LaRoche year — bad in April – June, and then torrid. No one in his worst nightmare expected this. Personally, I think that he’s trying to pull everything (that’s why all the weak ground-outs to the pitcher, 2B and 1B), and that is hardly ever a good idea.
seems like a good place
after the July 19, 2008 game: .254/.330/.437
after the July 19, 2009 game: .244/.328/.437
Which is more likely:
A guy with a .800+ career OPS continuing to suck forever, or that same guy returning to his career norms after he plays his way out of a slump?
Adam is currently about 80 points behind last year’s OPS, and 60 points below his lifetime OPS.
We all hope he recovers, and I think you are right Vlad – odds are he’ll get hot at some point this year. But he’s a dead streak hitter – he’s averaged about a 1.000 OPS in July for his career before this year, but for July ’09 currently his OPS is at .315.
And since he’s not part of the PBC future (if not traded, he’s a free agent who will not be offered arbitration), I’d just rather see the other guys who are a part of the future get a chance the last 2 months of ’09, than wait to see if Adam can play his way out of this atypical summer slump.
60 points below lifetime
true enough.
but is it really all that surprising?
on July 20 2008: .
254/.330/.437 (OPS .766)
finishing OPS .841
OPS difference .075
on July 20 2007:
.240/.322/.437 (OPS .759)
finishing OPS .803
OPS difference .044
on July 20 2006:
.266/.335/.521 (OPS .853)
finishing OPS .915
OPS difference .062
in 2005, he fell off quite a bit (.041) in the same timeframe, but that’s not totally unexpected in his first full season.
He played considerably less in 2004, so I didn’t consider that season (note: he gained .098 in 176 PA from July 20 to the end of the season)
seems like a pattern to me: he’s likely to gain at least 40 points (which would put him around .800) and end up somewhere around .270/.340/.480
As far as Pablo Sandoval goes, a comparison to free-swinger Vlad Guerrero is a stretch. But even mentioning Randall Simon (even calling him much better) is underselling him a bit. Sandoval will give you a lot better power, and I swear that he could be a close to league average defensive 3B. He was very agile in the one game I watched, including almost stealing two bases and a Web Gem nominee diving catch at third. I would not want Adam LaRoche to face him in a foot race. Unless the shape spirals out of control, he’ll be very good for the next 10 years.
by Gorkys n' Beans on Jul 20, 2009 2:13 PM EDT reply actions
Oh yeah, I wasn’t trying to diss Sandoval’s actual abilities, which are a lot more like Guerrero than Simon.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jul 20, 2009 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I was at the game on Sunday.
He didn’t look all that quick or fluid in the field to me, and I swear he was actually out of breath at second after his double.
I guess he could’ve just had a late night on Saturday or something, though.
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