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Around SBN: Jeff Sullivan's MLB Trade Deadline Primer

Can we rebuild by not tearing it down?

It seems like many people have already solidified their opinion of the Freddy Sanchez / Jack Wilson situation and I'm not sure that I understand why.  As far as I'm concerned, coming to a conclusion on whether they should deal the duo hinges on a few very big factors, specifically what the return on such a deal would merit and what replacements will "cost."  Most of the "don't trade" anyone crowd seems a little extreme and unrealistic in general while the "rebuild" guys seem to want to deal at all costs.  While I agree with mostly and appreciate the enthusiam of the "rebuilders" to be a good team one day, I think that keeping both guys could still fit into the overall plan.

Despite some random speculation, I haven't heard anything REAL and I assume that means that nobody is knocking down the door for either of these guys.  Let's just say, I don't see the names Sanchez/Wilson on ESPN 1/100th of the time that I see Roy Halladay.  Could be wrong on that but all rumors seem like far-fetched speculation.  I totally understand that's fun to do, but reality is that we usually overestimate what our players will return and we end up being disappointed with the results.  Take Nate McClouth for example: when the word leaked that he was dealt, everyone immediately started mentioning Hanson or Heyward.  Maybe the Braves offered either of these guys in isolation but I'd be willing to bet they never entered the discussion.  Teams just aren't willing to give up their premier prospects any longer.  If you need evidence, look at how Philly is hesitant to trade Drabek for one of the top 3 pitchers in the game! 

Additionally, I'm not sure if other teams value Jack in accordance with what he means to the Bucs.  The overall cost to the team may be greater than what a trade will return.  A lot of the people that fall into the "rebuild" mode aren't taking into account what a Bixler led infield would look like.  A lot of current outs will turn into runs.  ERAs of an improving but young staff will go up.  Many say that we just need to trade for a major league ready SS - right... since lots of contending teams are willing to trade away major league ready talent at SS as they acquire a SS. 

Finally, if Neal can't deal either guy for prospects that have a real chance of being impact players in the future, why mess with a good thing?  If the only option is to follow the quantity over quality strategy and fill these spots internally (Neal's preferred method it seems), I'm not sure this one will be a good move.   The middle infield has been a positive for the pitching staff, as a combo they would be priced about league average, the trade market for guys with their talents doesn't seem to be overwhelming, and they're about average offensively when viewed as a combo.  While this team won't be good, it probably won't be horrific - for as much as it doesn't matter, it really does.  I'm all for dealing away players for prospects that have a good chance of being contributors but I'm not sure that dealing for the sake of dealing in this situation is the way to go.  Just my thoughts. 

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.

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I agree for the most part

especially when dealing Jack. I think of all of our trade chips, Jack will fetch the smallest return. If we get something for Jack that blows us away, we should take it. Otherwise, his defense is absolutely invaluable to our young pitching staff already in the ’burgh and on its way.

I do think that we try and push Freddy and trade him no matter what though (at least from a pure baseball driven decision) because his defense isn’t anything special. I think it doing so we can do many things apart from just getting prospects.

1. I have heard arguments upon arguments against this idea… but I see no harm in trying to see if Andy will stick at 2nd. Even if he is a below average 2B defensively, if his bat develops how we hope (.280-.300 15-25 HR’s etc.) then he suddenly becomes arguably a top 5 offensive 2B (in the mold of Utley and Kinsler, but with less speed). Then we can try and make Alvarez stick at 3B making his bat more valuable and then find a guy who can mash and play 1B.

Call me crazy but I don’t think it will be that hard to trade for a studish 1B prospect in the next few years.
Examples

Justin Smoak – Probably untouchable, but the Rangers aren’t desperate for 1B (Hank Blalock and Chris Wilson) and if they are in a pennant race next year and we have a few chips that they need… well crazier things have happened.

Next year they could be looking for pitchers

Eric Homser – A longshot, but maybe the Royals ride their pitching and other young bats to a terrific first half next year and look to make some deals at the deadline, including dealing Homser who is semi-blocked by Billy Butler. They also have Kila Ka’aihue as a top 1B prospect (who we could also target).

Next year at the deadline they could be looking for a SP, OF, and to a lesser extent a C.

Yonder Alonso – Personally, I think our best shot to acquire one of these guys. He is blocked with a capital B by Joey Votto (who is only 3 years older than him). In a weak central division they will almost assuredly be in a playoff race next year (barring injury) and could use an extra outfielder, pitching, a catcher, and maybe even a SS.

I would love to see us trade something like Garret Jones or B. Moss (whichever one has more value next season) Doumit, and Duke for a package of Alonso and Chris Valaika (+ throw ins) or Alonso and Drew Stubbs (+ throw ins)

Lars Anderson – Blocked by Big Papi and Youk for now. The Red Sox are always looking to add extra players at the deadline for another race at a World Series.

Now back to the other benefits of trading Freddy (aside from the player return)

We can also throw DY at 2B and see if he can play marginal defense so we can showcase him as tradebait (with his bat) for next year.

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 21, 2009 12:20 PM EDT reply actions  

The main harm in trying Andy at 2B...

…is that we’d then need to go out and get a 3B, since we don’t have one who can handle the role in 2010. Pedro isn’t fielding, Walker isn’t hitting, and there aren’t any other internal options.

Stud prospects of any kind are almost never moved. It might not be all that hard to acquire a prospect who projects as a mid-level guy, but a stud is always a blue-chipper, and priced accordingly. Dealing with your proposals in order:

  • Smoak. Not blocked, thanks to Chris Davis’s flameout. Could be up and 1B/DHing as soon as the roster expansion.
  • Alonso. Votto can move to a corner OF slot, freeing up 1B for Alonso, so he’s not really blocked. Also, Cincy is unlikely to be close enough to contention in 2010 to sell off a big piece of their future like Alonso. That package you propose is laughably lopsided (Garrett Jones? Ha!).
  • Anderson. Not blocked, given Papi’s total collapse. If he can’t turn it around this fall (and my money’s on “can’t”), then they’ll eat the rest of his deal and give Anderson the job.

I can’t rule out the Royals making a dumb deal, because Dayton Moore is dumb, but in general I don’t like to count on my opponent making an unforced error as an integral part of my master plan.

by Vlad on Jul 21, 2009 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’m guessing you probably just looked at Ortiz’s numbers, which are still in the toilet, and assumed he was still struggling, but his epic slump to begin the year appears to be over. He hit .320 with 7 HRs in June (1.062 OPS) and has a respectable .788 OPS in July. At the beginning of the season he could barely get around on a 90 MPH fastball down the middle, now he’s driving those balls with some regularity.

I don’t see how the Pirates have the assets to acquire Anderson aside from Pedro Alvarez. The Sox won’t be trading Lars for Jack Wilson or Adam LaRoche, that’s for sure.

by AdamHyzdu on Jul 21, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

A .788 OPS doesn't have much value...

…for a player who’s a minus baserunner and incapable of playing in the field without injuring himself.

It’s nice that he played well in June, but I think it’s his last hurrah.

by Vlad on Jul 21, 2009 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

What

harm will be done by playing Walker at 3rd.. or Delwyn or a monkey. Who cares about 2010? I don’t.

Smoak. I agree with the Smoak comments, especially considering how highly regarded he is.. but

Anderson. Papi is not flamingout (read the post below). Our problem there is that we don’t and won’t really have anything they need.

Alonso. A question, because I honestly don’t know. Has there been talk of moving Votto? I kinda assume hes stuck at 1B, but I guess I could be wrong. In general though, I disagree with your comments. The package isn’t lopsided considering what could happen from this deadline till next deadline.

For example

DY/Moss/Jones (whoever, take your pick) opens the year as our 3rd outfielder (with Milledge/Cutch) and tears the cover off the ball ala Nady or McClouth. Duke pitches well. Doumit stays healthy and hits .320/15HR and goes to the all star game. The Reds hit the all-star break 2 games out of first. They look at their roster and need a catcher and a SP.

We call them up, offer them Duke, Doumit and throw in DY (because hes hitting well and has some versatility) and we get back Alonso and whoever. Yes, its more unlikely to happen than likely, but I think its something we should pursue with all the teams we can.

Ultimately though, I am not the Pirates GM, so this is just a mixture of speculation, wishful thinking, and day dreaming..

Still, I think we should be trying to maximize the trade value of all players who won’t be part of the so-called “2012” team. (I would assume that the only two players in Pittsburgh outside the pitching staff who will be on this team are Andy LaRoche and Cutch (not forgetting Milledge).) To do this we should trade whos already proven themselves and throw in our fringe guys and hope that they become the next nady/mcClouth/whoever. Those guys include DY, Jones, Neil Walker, Steven Pearce and Brandon Moss.

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 21, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

The above post

was directed at Vlad, not AdamHyzdu.

With the upmost respect possible of course.

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 21, 2009 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think you are either extremely overvaluing Alonso, or are extremly undervalueing Doumit and Duke

by BuccoBrigade on Jul 21, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

The harm from playing Walker at 3B...

…would be that he’d get the bat knocked out of his hands. It’s be ugly for us to watch, and it’d reduce the chances of him correcting the problems with his offensive profile, since he wouldn’’t be facing skill-appropriate competition.

Votto has some OF experience, playing there a bit as a rookie in 2007 (with some minor-league games that year as well). I think he’d be limited to LF, but it’s not like the Reds have ever cared all that much about OF defense, and he’s got the bat to make up for a few flubs.

I think that any plan that relies on a player greatly outperforming his actual level of ability (as would be the case with any of those three outfielders “tearing the cover off the ball”) is a shot in the dark at best. It’s like planning on finding a winning lottery ticket in the street on your way home. Great idea if it works, but how do you make it happen?

by Vlad on Jul 21, 2009 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

The harm is that Neil Walker is still a marginal prospect. He’s not going to be the wunderkind we all wanted, but there’s still a chance that he could turn into a productive player. That’s not going to happen if we put him against ML pitchers way before he’s ready to face them.

www.sixtyftsixin.com

by Sixty Feet, Six Inches on Jul 22, 2009 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Gene Collier has some opinions on the Jack and Freddy issues

Here’s a link to his new opinion piece. It is an interesting read and is sure to make the yinzers excited.

by Green_Wave on Jul 21, 2009 12:51 PM EDT reply actions  

Why, if the Bucs just add $30 million to the payroll then empty the farm for a half year of Roy Halladay, we’ll be a contender!

by Gorkys n' Beans on Jul 21, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

That was laughably wrong headed and dumb.

The last paragraph about the Brewers killed me. Apparently Gene doesn’t realize that’s what the Pirates are trying to do. Oh wait, the Brewers totally got Ryan Braun, Corey Hart, JJ Hardy, and Prince Fielder through the trade Hokey Pokey, right?

Lastings Milledge was so clearly the best player in the Nyjer Morgan trade it makes my head hurt to think otherwise. That undercuts his claim the “best player” never comes back to the Pirates. One would think the Jason Bay trade would also give him pause.

by CptnAwesome on Jul 21, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

You mean the Brian Giles FOR Bay trade, right? Because the Bay to Boston trade has only produced Andy LaRoche so far, and while I’m a fan of Andy, he’s not better than Bay by himself.

www.sixtyftsixin.com

by Sixty Feet, Six Inches on Jul 22, 2009 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

I am surprised that you thought that column was interesting

I didn’t notice a single point that he made that hadn’t been made a dozen times before by him or writers just like him. Collier reminds me a lot of Ray Ratto, who loves to blast away but is unable to construct a sound argument for his own point of view.

by WestCoastBuc on Jul 21, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

I thought it was interesting

in that It made me wonder how people like what he writes.

by Green_Wave on Jul 21, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Geez Gene, some ok points but...

I would call that article “eloquently stated” yinzer talk. Way to stir up the masses Gene. Thankfully I’m far away enough from the ’burgh to not have to be exposed to it on a daily basis and able to to get my info from more rational blogs.

Anyone whe decries current management’s decisions to trade players based on ONLY the Pirate’s history of making trades, is either a classic yinzer or just too deep into the woods.

Making the claim that Jack and Freddy are the Pirates two best assets is laughable – they’re decent players but I freakin’ hope that isn’t true or we’re truly doomed.

by 16andCounting on Jul 21, 2009 1:18 PM EDT reply actions  

My letter to Gene this morning......

Certainly not the most articulate piece, but I get so tired of these guys not doing any analysis and just writing hyperbole I couldn’t fire it off fast enough:
-——————-
Gene you should start by getting some of your facts straight. From your article:

“Sanchez will, by all the telltale feel of existing tensions, be traded in the next 10 days or encouraged to leave town this winter.”

Read more: http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/09202/985269-150.stm#ixzz0LtUfGWPE

The Pirates have 70 games left. Freddy needs 239 plate appearances to have his option vest. That’s is 3.4 appearances/game. If he plays 60 of the 70 games he will most certainly have it vest. Thus far this season Freddy has played 81 of a possible 92 games while missing 5 or 6 with an injury before the all-star game. If the Pirates are trying to make sure his option doesn’t vest batting him second and playing him all but one game every two weeks doesn’t seem like a very good way to go about it.

Also, what does “encouraged to leave town this winter” even mean? If his option vests he is under contract. There is nothing the Pirates can do to “encourage him to leave town this winter.” If it doesn’t vest he is a free agent and is free to negotiate with any team he pleases. Jack is in the same boat. He is a free agent and able to negotiate with any team he pleases. The players pushed hard for free agency, now it is a bad thing? I don’t know what you are saying. And I hate to tell you, it is about July 2009. That’s exactly what it is about. You want them to make decisions today based on the Aramis Ramirez trade of six years ago? That’s good and forward-thinking management?

I also love how you use the terms “souless dismantling”, “stunning deportment” and “intensely, almost insanely analytical” (hmmm, didn’t know actually doing hard, detailed analysis could be insane) to stir up the fan base.

Don’t mention the seven shutout innings that Morton pitched a few days ago. Don’t mention that Lastings Milledge is killing it in Indianapolis and was just named player of the week yesterday. Don’t mention that Jason Bay has turned down the Red Sox offer of $12/year for multiple years. Don’t mention that Nady and Marte have provided absolutely nothing to the Yankees while the Pirates received Ross Ohlendorf, Jeff Karstens, Jose Tabata and Daniel McCutchen, two of whom are currently on the staff, one pitching in AAA and Tabata being a very highly regarded outfield prospect. Or that McLouth has been disappointingly unproductive with the Braves with a .257 batting average and .446 slugging percentage which is right in line with one of the Pirates “unproductive” corner infielders. How about the acquisition of Hernandez, Locke and Morris to try to replenish a barren farm system?

Listen I don’t have any problem with you criticizing the front office. But, it might be interesting if you actually tried to do some insane analytical work yourself instead of just showering the masses with hyperbole. And one last time, comparing the current management team to the past and lumping 17 years together as one is just lazy and inaccurate.
-————
I wrote again asking him who on the staff was “overachieving” with Snell and Gorzo in AAA, Capps, VV not pitching particularly well, Maholm and Ohlendorf pitching close to their preseason projections and Morton having pitched 28 innings with the Pirates after dominating AAA? (I conceded that Duke, and possibly Ohlendorf, had pitched better than expected.) He responded that, and I quote, “pirate pitching has been better than it has a right to be.”

Huh? I don’t even know what that means. How do these guys keep their gigs?

by dtoddwin on Jul 21, 2009 1:40 PM EDT reply actions  

Pretty nicely done for a quick, angry email.

What his response to your first email?

by CptnAwesome on Jul 21, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

LOL

…..the response to the first one was, “thanks for the kind words.” I even laughed at that.

by dtoddwin on Jul 21, 2009 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Good job, dtodd!

Is Smizik next?

Heh.

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Jul 21, 2009 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

better than it has a right to be

Translation: “screws up my argument so I don’t want to deal with it.”

There’s a reason a lot of “writers” hate the blogosphere.

by WTM on Jul 21, 2009 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Nice Gene

Way to reply with the exact, factless claim that was refuted in the first place.

by glass0941 on Jul 21, 2009 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

If they're going to let Collier write about sports...

…they should make him watch games once in a while, or at least pay some attention to the teams.

by Vlad on Jul 21, 2009 1:52 PM EDT reply actions  

P-G sports writers are getting paid to pander to the causal fans, because that is where the money is. Simple as that.

by Gorkys n' Beans on Jul 21, 2009 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ever listen to the casual fan calls on Extra Innings with Rocco DeMaro?

www.sixtyftsixin.com

by Sixty Feet, Six Inches on Jul 22, 2009 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Why do that?

When he can just go on the WDVE morning show and talk about burning one with “Ralph the cat” and Donnie Iris. Then right before he leaves he can say Oh yea, the Buccos lost again last night 9-3. Boy do they suck.

I think I work with the biggest bunch of yinzers in the area and they all come up to me just to tell me that they’re done with the team because they traded McLouth or they will be once they trade Freddy (kind of like the new people on here register just to tell all of us they’re done with the Pirates). They usually say this after reading Gene or Smizik but then have no idea who we got in return for our players.

 One of my co-workers(who actually is a Reds fan) was saying he can’t believe they agreed to take Miledge for Morgan because he is such a head case and we could have got a better return. He had no idea what Miledge had ever done to be labled a head case but read it was a bad trade in the papers. I believe the PG actually made the yinzers the baseball fans they are today by pumping them full of stupid columns like Collier’s latest.

"So you think 25 percent of the country is retarded?! Yea. Atleast 25 percent. Well lets so a sample. There are 4 of us an you're retarded. Thats 25 percent." Southpark; Mystery of the Urinal Deuce

by gorillakilla34 on Jul 21, 2009 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

The last three paragraphs from Collier's article -- How Does Collier Get Away With This?

"The Wilson and Sanchez positions in all of this might not make perfect sense (even if they do to me), but management’s position is logically bankrupt. You could argue without straining a quad that if the Pirates even have two good players, they are Wilson and Sanchez. What they have around them are two unproductive corner infielders, two undistinguished corner outfielders, a still unproven center fielder, and injury-prone catcher, and an overachieving pitching staff without a stopper or a top-shelf bullpen hammer. And priority one is, somehow, get rid of the small authentically major league portion of your major league roster, the part that just happens to have no conceivable replacement inventory anywhere in the system.

If Wilson and Sanchez are traded before the end of next week, the outcry from the stunningly robust number of people who still care will make everything that came before it seem like a whimper.

The Pirates need to give Sanchez his $8 million for 2010 and $5 million for 2011, give Wilson $9 million for both, boost the major league payroll to at least $80 million, and, instead of watching the Milwaukee Brewers beat you 17 times in row from a similar-sized market, instead of watching the Brewers add CC Sabathia for a pennant race one year and scout Roy Halladay the next, try something along those things yourselves."

Holy.
Crap.

by Slizeezyc on Jul 21, 2009 6:46 PM EDT reply actions  

I wonder

how Gene would have gotten hold of CC Sabathia last year and what good he thinks it would do us this year. I would actually be OK with the deals he proposes for Wilson & Sanchez, but the rest of his article is uneducated crap.

by maguro on Jul 21, 2009 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

I guess...

If Jack wants an extra 500k a year that would be fine. I would also agree that 13m over 2 years for Freddy would be ok(seeing that 8 million is pretty much set for him next year). That’s all Gene and I agree on.

"So you think 25 percent of the country is retarded?! Yea. Atleast 25 percent. Well lets so a sample. There are 4 of us an you're retarded. Thats 25 percent." Southpark; Mystery of the Urinal Deuce

by gorillakilla34 on Jul 21, 2009 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Or he's an idiot.

How many ‘Nuttingcocks’ will he blow once this team begins to win?

by ryebr3ad on Jul 22, 2009 4:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

$9M a year for Jack Wilson?

That’s the kind of quote that deserves to hang around his neck like an albatross.

The same way this one hangs around Ron Cook’s.

by Vlad on Jul 22, 2009 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

Its possible

but the guys that we would get the most return happen to be the most needed on our team too. Its a tough deal

by The_Fan on Jul 22, 2009 12:42 PM EDT reply actions  

No

But we can tear down without rebuilding because we are the pittsburg pirates

by WVPiratesfan on Jul 22, 2009 1:22 PM EDT reply actions  

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