Is it Time to Bring Ian Snell Back?
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jul 22, 2009 4:20 AM EDT
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PrintFollowing up on Vlad's fanpost yesterday: Ian Snell pitched six innings yesterday for Indianapolis, striking out nine, walking four and allowing one run. To date, he's racked up 43 strikeouts in 32.3 innings, posting an ERA of 0.56. The non-waiver trading deadline is next Friday.
I mention all this because of this, from the link Vlad posted:
Snell has a 0.34 ERA in four starts since being demoted June 25... but the Pirates don’t plan to recall him — at least in the near future — because of his apparent reluctance to return to the majors.
"Ian spoke publicly about not wanting to come back and it’s tough to bring a player back into a clubhouse with 24 other players when he’s been strongly adamant he doesn’t want to come back," Pirates general manager Neal Huntington said Sunday...
"Many [teams] have the same feeling — they’re intrigued by talent, but puzzled by the ongoings," Huntington said. "Teams still poke around and hope we’re ready to give up on him and just give him away, or they’re going to trade us their bad contract for what could be deemed our bad contract."
Got that? The Pirates would like to trade Snell--and, presumably, Snell would like to be traded--but the Pirates can't make that happen on their terms, because of the drama involved. It seems pretty likely that no amount of dominant pitching at Indianapolis will resolve it, either.
If the report a couple weeks ago on Indianapolis TV about Snell being depressed is true, in a clinical sense, that's one thing. But if it's not, then I'd like the Bucs to ignore Snell's wishes and bring him back to start in place of Virgil Vasquez next week (Vasquez's strong start yesterday notwithstanding). Snell is not being paid millions of dollars to pitch in Indianapolis. And if he were called up to the big leagues, he ought to be motivated to pitch well, since he'd be auditioning for other teams who need a starter but wonder whether he can handle the big leagues right now.
There is no reason for the Pirates to give Snell away. And it's not fair to the Pirates to have to continue to pay millions for Snell's services if he won't pitch for them. Pitching at Indianapolis indefinitely should not be an option. If he wants a change of scenery, it should come through a trade to another big league club. And Snell can speed that process along by coming back to the Pirates and pitching well.
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I agree with calling him back up.
It could only help him in getting traded. He can be somebody else’s Milledge. I don’t mean that in a bad way, either. If he does get traded, I hope he succeeds. He was a fun guy to watch during the ‘07 season. It’s a shame him and Gorzo had such a falling out, but I guess that’s been the trend.
For him to be "someone else's Milledge"...
…we’d have to give him up for a grossly unfair return.
I’m not sure I like that idea.
by Vlad on Jul 22, 2009 8:28 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I don't think
that Nyjer was a grossly unfair return for Milledge. Nyjer is very much the better player right now and the trade would have been great for Washington if they were in contention.
The problem is that by the time the Nats are any good, Nyjer won’t be.
In what sense is Nyjer better?
Milledge is the better player RIGHT NOW in every offensive category, including stolen base percentage. Nyjer probably has a leg-up on defense, but that’s it. I’ll take a well-rounded offensive player that has moderate defensive skills for an outstanding defensive player that can’t hit to save his life.
www.sixtyftsixin.com
by Sixty Feet, Six Inches on Jul 22, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd give Nyjer the edge on defense.
But in terms of overall value, I think it’s Milledge in a walk. The only reason it made any kind of sense for Washington is that they were projecting Nyjer in CF, not LF.
You can't just use stats like that
You have to use the prejudices that stat-lovers like. Therefore, Nyjer Morgan, a classic leadoff man with sterling defense, is by definition worse than a mediocre fielder who is presumed to have power. Actual statistical measures are irrelevant. This is Truth.
By that same standard...
…Nyjer is a more valuable player than Pedro, since he has 0 WAR so far.
You don’t see the problem with using a counting stat to measure the worth-going-forward of a guy who’s been hurt for the vast majority of the season?
All I said
is that Nyjer is more valuable right now, which he is.
If you don’t like “counting stats”, how about this: Morgan and Milledge have virtually identical career OPSs, but Morgan is by far a superior defender and therefore a better player.
I do think Milledge has more upside and will probably be a better player than Nyjer in a couple years, but Nyjer is clearly more productive right now.
You said that Nyjer is more valuable right now...
…and then to demonstrate it, you used stats that demonstrate that Nyjer was more valuable over a set period in the recent past. Does not compute.
The relevant question is which player projects to be more valuable from the present until some fixed point in the future, and despite Njyer’s acceptable performance this year, the answer to that question is still Milledge.
Leave aside future performance for a moment
What you’re saying is that the fact that Nyjer Morgan was more valuable than Lastings Milledge over a set period in the recent past doesn’t mean he’s the better player now.
But the fact that Steve Pearce was more valuable than Garrett Jones over a set period in the recent past means he’s the better player now.
Thanks. Got it.
I'm saying that it's not a fair or reasonable analysis...
…to assign zero value to a player because he was out of the lineup with an injury. I think we can agree that if Milledge had been healthy and playing, he would’ve accumulated more than zero value this year, yes?
Not really
Milledge was 0.1 WAR last year in a full season with the Nats.
The entire difference between the two right now is defense, but it’s an absolutely huge gap. Morgan is really good and Milledge is really bad.
That said, I like the trade because once Nyjer is 29 and once he loses a step he’ll lose most of his value and Milledge still has a chance to develop into a good player.
Ah, I see.
I thought those WAR figures were for 2009 only.
I still think that if you offered all the ML GMs their choice of Milledge or Morgan, 29 would take Milledge. His forward ZiPS for 2009 gives him an edge of like 150 points of OPS.
That makes up for a lot of defensive runs, y’know?
Last time I checked
Nyjer’s UZR numbers (just after the trade) they were unbelievable. He had caught 20 more balls out of zone than any other left fielder…NM had around 50, the next guy was at 30 or so and everyone else was in the 20s.
Really an astonishing difference. Milledge would need to hit at least .150 OPS better to even be equal.
I think it’s more likely that Milledge improves his defense to the point where he’s at least average. He certainly has the athleticism to do so.
"RIGHT NOW"
is the issue. No one here has argued that, from 2010-2014, they expect more from NyjMo than from Milledge*. But 60’-6" said “RIGHT NOW,” and that’s crap (especially considering the “probably has a leg-up on defense;” Milledge was never projected to be as good a defender as NyjMo is right now, so why “probably?” To crap up the argument).
- I would say that Milledge has a distinct flame-out possibility, but NyjMo could tear a hamstring tomorrow, and he has nothing to fall back on, so that’s a wash
I kinda meant being a head case for his current team
but works wonders for his future team. Nothing to do with who we get in return.
Whether it’s time or not, I don’t think he’s ever coming back. Dejan mentioned the other day that there seem to be personal issues between Snell and NH.
I imagine you are right. It does seem personal or at a minimum NH has reached his limit with Snell and his personality.
I would be surprised if he gets moved this season. The offseason will provide more opportunity for a solid return in trade.
You don't have to like someone to work with them.
Just look at the A’s teams of the ’70s.
Can’t we all just chip in and buy him a fruit basket or something, so he’ll feel appreciated or whatever it is that he’s looking for?
Agreed...
The 70s Steelers are good example as well.
At this point I dont know if it would make sense to bring him back up…his AAA are so strong that building on them could only help in the return wouldnt it? Or am I nuts? I am prepared to be if appropriate!
No matter what you do at AAA (as a former MLB player)
your non-production at the MLB level will follow you. If Milledge were tearing it up in AAA to the tune of 1.100 OPS with power, everyone would point to his non-successful tenure with the Mets and Nats. If Ian ends up going 7-0 with a 0.10 ERA, NH would still not get the kind of return he should because GMs will point to his lackluster 2008 and 2009 in the bigs and 3.2M and say he is a risk. Ian’s record doesn’t mean anything at AAA.
Dear Ian,
Hey, I hate my job too, and really hate the boss and the people I work with. Get over it, you’re the employee, so what you’re told. I don’t get to chose where I work, I don’t see why you should have that honor, pal. Welcome to my world.
When Captain America throws his mighty shield,
All those who chose to oppose his shield must yield.
You do get to choose where you work. Don’t like your job? Quit. Find a different one. I doubt they have some kind of reserve clause on you.
www.sixtyftsixin.com
by Sixty Feet, Six Inches on Jul 22, 2009 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Noncompete agreement, maybe.
But even that doesn’t stop you from taking a job in a different industry.
Changing an organization
In business or in baseball, when you want to change the culture of an organization you have to make hard decisions and sacrifices. Unfortunately, keeping Snell in Indy is one of those sacrifices. Remember Operation Shutdown, or Raul Mondesi? If you want to change a losing culture you have to be willing to bite the bullet and cut your losses even if a loser like Snell has talent.
Personally, I think NH should forget about him. Banish him to Indy, don’t trade him, don’t talk about him, don’t give him that satisfaction. If he doesn’t want to be a Pirate, don’t let him be a Pirate. The Pirates will be even more of a laughingstock if they make 24 guys who hustle everyday play with a quitter like Snell. It’s like poisoning the well. Sacrificing a winning culture for “higher return” is only a short term fix to the bigger problem that pervades losing organizations like the Pirates.
by CarlWeathersMustache on Jul 22, 2009 9:17 AM EDT reply actions
Problem is...
that well can be poisoned at Indy. Right now there aren’t too many to poison…Milledge…Lincoln. But soon…or next year…Pedro…Tabata…Gorkys. Do we really want to see that happen?
Can his contract be sold ...
to a Japanese team?
by Pirate in Ole VA on Jul 22, 2009 9:46 AM EDT reply actions
If Ian thinks
that Neal Huntington is mean and insensitive, I can’t imagine he’d fare well in NPB. They don’t pay much attention to hurt feelings over there.
Players actually can’t be traded to the NPB, either, due to a bargaining agreement between the leagues. The player has to consent to having their contract sold, and the selling team can’t get a return.
www.sixtyftsixin.com
by Sixty Feet, Six Inches on Jul 22, 2009 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Depends on Ian's Actuall Problem
If Ian’s problem is clinical, then the Pirates need to help him get better. If his problem is attitude, then do with him what you need to but don’t let him “poison the well”.
Screw "poisoning the well"
these are all adults playing the game. If an adult has a temper tantrum it shouldnt affect the other adults playing the game. Remember, these are all well compensated adults playing a game. If a guy in the locker next to you is a dbag with a bad attitude, that shouldnt stop you from using you athletic ability to compete.
Not to be contrary, because I agree with you, but
guys aged 23, 24, 25 are really just barely adults, to a degree. And they’ve been playing baseball for a living, which, while it is their job, is still a game that they’re being paid for.
I think they are more influenced by their teammates / friends than you might like to think.
I totally agree that professionalism and personal pride has to take over at some point, though.
Just my $0.02.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jul 22, 2009 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions
We all deal with negativity in the workplace
Why is baseball any different? Some people work harder than others and some people have better attitude than others. Who cares what he wants and what the other players we own want! We own him and are paying his salary. He is expected to produce at the MLB level and help us compete just like all other 24 men on the roster.
If he has a clinical problem, then let us work with him to get help. Funny how that was the immediate diagnosis in Indy, then he has success and it is not mentioned….hmmm……
If he has an attitude problem, remind him who cuts his checks…..
Don't bring him back / Huntington's bio
2nd part first, from NH’s bio:
In November of 1998, Neal took over as Cleveland’s Director of Player Development. In that role he instilled a holistic developmental philosophy that focused on the systematic development of the person as well as the player.
Interesting how or if he’s applying that philosophy with Snell.
Snell needs something, but I doubt Vlad’s fruit basket idea would do the trick. I think he should, and will, play out the year in Indy and he won’t be brought back this year at all. What real indication is there that Snell feels different? And I think that’s the crux of it – Snell’s feelings and ideas.
NH should make noise like Snell is under contract and he fully expects Snell to be with the Pirates in 2010, role TBD. Snell has to figure out what he wants to be, a professional ballplayer, or a guy that can play baseball. If he needs help mentally, he’s got to first realize and admit he needs help. Then he needs to accept it.
Maybe the team has already tried helping, and that’s why NH is aggravated. At some point, it’s up to Snell. If NH hasn’t really tried developing Snell’s person, maybe he needs to re-read his own bio.
also
snell’s numbers don’t really indicate a guy who has made the progress as a pitcher that he would need to in order to again have success at the major league level, let alone as a person.
sure, his numbers look all shiny, with his 0.56 ERA and 43:12 K/BB…but don’t forget he posted 17 of those K’s against that pathetic Mud Hen squad, and has also walked NINE batters in his last two starts (12 1/3 IP). To me, those numbers don’t look significantly different than what he was doing up here, he’s just able to get away with it more against AAA hitters.
Saw Snell pitch last night.
I saw him pitch against the Durham Bulls (Rays farm team) last night, and he was doing all the same things he’d do in MLB. Pitch away, away, away. He’d only go inside on a lefty, and those pitches were usually balls. Still took a day and a half between pitches. He hasn’t changed anything.
Also, all the legitimate Rays prospects like Brignac and Joyce looked good against him. The ones that didn’t were the career minor leaguers.
www.sixtyftsixin.com
by Sixty Feet, Six Inches on Jul 22, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Finally
I’ve been waiting for an eyewitness update. Ian’s strike/ball ratio made me think that maybe he was nibbling less (if only because he has less reason to fear these guys), but evidently not.
I think a lot of the above commentary is stupid – as if Ian has been outrageous but NH has been the very soul of professionalism – but the bottom line is that there’s no point in bringing up Ian if he hasn’t changed his approach at all. I think NH is being a bit silly to act surprised that, after all he’s said and done, other teams won’t offer top level talent for Snell, and therefore a promotion would be a good signal to other teams (and a good dose of humility to NH), but not if Ian will be the exact same pitcher he was in May and June.
Here is what confuses me about all this. I understand that Ian does not want to come back to Pittsburgh, and that he wants to be traded. But I would think he has to understand that the likelihood of him being traded at all while he is pitching AAA, no matter how well, is much smaller than if he were pitching half this well in the majors. I would think that he (or his agent) would realize this and say something along the lines of:
“Well, as much as I don’t want to pitch in Pittsburgh anymore, I should just do it for a few weeks so I can get traded.”
Am I missing something or does this make sense?
you're not wrong
i think there is some disconnect for ian, in that he still has things he needs to fix pitching-wise in order to return to pittsburgh and perform well enough to look like a desirable trade acquisition…but there’s mental/emotional baggage that needs dealt with before he can make those changes (and even if we don’t know the details, we know that baggage at least exists in the form of Ian not thinking he needs to fix anything)
Before we throw out the baby with the bath water...
Why not get Ian some couseling and maybe even some anti-depressants? Maybe his career is still salvagable. There is no need to treat him more harshly than we would someone with either a drug or alcolol dependency problem. Asiside from the fact he still has abvious pitching skills, the Pirates have a moral obligation to try to help one of their employees regain a productive role.
by Illinois Pirate Fan on Jul 22, 2009 11:03 AM EDT reply actions
Do we know
if this has been done already or not?
I don’t think that every aspect of this has been played out in the papers, nor should it be.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jul 22, 2009 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Agreed on the last part
But I send send a Q to Dejan about what I posted above re: NH’s bio and holistic approach, and if he has any knowledge of that re: Snell and the whole minor leagues.
Just let him cool off a little bit and everything may be fine.
People say all kinds of things that they don’t mean while under stress or things that they may mean at the time but later have a change of heart upon reflection.
From the Pirates perspective, so what if Ian stated publicly that he didn’t want to return to Pittsburgh. If they can’t get a decent return for him the way things stand, what is there to lose by giving him another shot?
Just speaking personally...
…I think that the best possible outcome would involve Ian coming back up to Pittsburgh and pitching well for us. The trick is figuring out how to get from here to there.
Since we don’t have direct knowledge of the particulars of the situation, we can’t really do much beyond crossing our fingers and hoping that the people in position to do something figure out what to do.
I know I'm in the minrity on here, but ...
Although his attitude may not have changed, his “value” to the Bucs is with him in Pittsburgh. I’m not going to say hes ready to start again, but maybe by puting him in the Pen, giving him some opportunity to pitch in some situations that he’s best at as well as those he needs to wor on will soften up his resistance to listen to the coaching staff, and bring him around.
I think, like Charlie pointed out, he’s being paid big league money, so he should be pitching in the big league. I also think if they give him opportunity, perhaps without the pressure to perform as a #1, 2, or 3 starter, may be a way to help him find his groove again – not unlike the opportunity that was given Gorzo earlier this year.
It’s my hope he can find his form again in the major leagues, while excercisizing his demons, and the Bucs get an opportunity to trade him lke both sides would like at this point.
by Pensburgh Pirates on Jul 22, 2009 2:21 PM EDT reply actions
To answer Charlie's question
No I don’t think Snell should be given a start for Vazquez. I think VV has pitched well enough to be given at least 2 more starts. Sure he’s starting to look like Karstens did, but they gave Karstens 10 starts, so from that alone VV should get at least 7 or 8 to make the transition.
Second, if they did bring up Snell I think a start wouldn’t do hm any good. See my previous post, I thin k if he goes anywhere it’s into te Pen.
Last, if they did want to try someone else out they should give it to Gorzolaney or McCutchen. Both have served their time in Indy, and pitched fairly well. For both it’s tie to see if they’ll make it on the vet team or if they’re better suited in a trade for other players.
by Pensburgh Pirates on Jul 22, 2009 2:30 PM EDT reply actions
Cutch
Has Daniel Mc actually shown that he’s ready to come up? From my casual perusal of the Minor League Update, it doesn’t seem like it to me, but I don’t know. Gorzo is obviously ready for the bigs, but NH is obviously keeping him down for contract purposes (hard to believe the union won’t file a grievance over it, but who knows).
I only advocate Cutch over Snell for starts
My first choice would be Gorzo. I threw McCutchen out there because he’s spent some time now (including last year) in AAA, and he’s about 27 (not sure), so I think it makes him a candidate for a spot start, just to see how it goes. But you’re right, he’s not exactly been lights out at Indy, so he’d be my second choice behind Gorzo taking a start from Vazquez.
by Pensburgh Pirates on Jul 22, 2009 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't understand why people...
…would prefer Gorzo over Snell. Snell’s pitched rings around him at Indy this year, and it’s not like Gorzo was looking all that hot against actual ML competition in spring training, either.
I guess maybe people are just sick of Snell, but that’s kind of a counterproductive approach, isn’t it?
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