Pirates Deal Adam LaRoche to Red Sox
by Charlie on Jul 22, 2009 2:49 PM EDT
80 comments
For shortstop prospect Argenis Diaz and pitching prospect Hunter Strickland.
I didn't expect the Pirates would get much for LaRoche, but the return here disappoints me a little. Diaz is supposed to be an incredible defender, but even incredible defenders need to hit a little bit, and right now his line at Class AA Portland is .253/.309/.310. He's only 22, which is a reasonable age for the level, but I don't see much in his minor league profile that suggests he's ever going to hit. It might be tempting to think he's a future replacement for Jack Wilson, but it's worth remembering that even Jack Wilson hit well in the minors. Unless Diaz improves dramatically with the stick, he's not going to be anything more than a utility infielder.
As a 20-year-old getting by in the South Atlantic League, Strickland is a bit more interesting, but his strikeout rate (51 batters in 83.3 innings) is far smaller than you'd hope for a real prospect. He's a big guy, but he's not a hard thrower, so my guess is that he's going to struggle to post good overall numbers as he moves up.
The choices here, presumably, were between signing LaRoche to an extension (not a good option), getting nothing from him at the end of the season (also not good), hoping for him to get hot so they could get draft picks for him at the end of the season (a crapshoot, and you don't want to risk offering him arbitration), or trading him to a contending team to rent for two months. So the Pirates were really up against it here, and it must've been hard to try to market an incredibly inconsistent free-agent-to-be. I'm not sure the Bucs could have done better than what they got. But it still disappointing to see them get two very marginal prospects for a regular player. There's at least a reasonable chance that LaRoche goes on one of his annual tears and ends up making Theo Epstein look like a genius.
Steve Pearce was pulled from Indianapolis' game today, by the way, and Lastings Milledge also isn't in the game, so we'll see how this shakes out. Garrett Jones could potentially move to first to make way for Milledge, or Pearce could take over at first.
The Pirates won't pay any of LaRoche's remaining salary.
UPDATE: Pearce has been recalled. Milledge will stay at Indianapolis.
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ok..
what did you want for him, honestly? a top prospect? hes a terrible player, good in the field but come on, do you really think hes a threat at the plate?
CITY OF CHAMPYINZ
by YINZER on Jul 22, 2009 2:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I didn't expect much either, but
In as much as the trade return involves live people in their early 20s who appear to have some familiarity with the game of baseball, I am pleasantly surprised.
Curious to hear what the money situation is.
Good day.
by Uncle Nate on Jul 22, 2009 2:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
LaRoche to Red Sox
I think that this is about the type of trade that should have been expected. LaRoche underachieved and is in the last year of his contract~can’t expect more than that.
by Marooned Pirate on Jul 22, 2009 2:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i heard
i heard that the bo sox are picking up most of his salary as well, dont know how reliable
CITY OF CHAMPYINZ
by YINZER on Jul 22, 2009 2:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
this saves money to lock up our middle infielders for about 2-3 years
CITY OF CHAMPYINZ
by YINZER on Jul 22, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If true, then fine
Because I don’t think the Pirates pitching in on his salary would much raise the level of return – Adam’s so unreliable that the salary is the least of the Sox’ worries.
by JRoth95 on Jul 22, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What are the Red Sox plans for him ? Anyone have any ideas ? They don’t really need a first baseman do they ?
When Captain America throws his mighty shield,
All those who chose to oppose his shield must yield.
by chodan11 on Jul 22, 2009 2:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Lowell is a big question mark going forward...
…and Youkilis is their only other viable 3B option, which leaves a hole at 1B. Hence LaRoche. He’ll start if Lowell’s toast, and come off the bench if he’s not.
by Vlad on Jul 22, 2009 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thank you. That makes sense.
When Captain America throws his mighty shield,
All those who chose to oppose his shield must yield.
by chodan11 on Jul 22, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
New Papi?
I thought the age comparison stats might throw out something like this:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/larocad01.shtml
You can see what the Red Sox are hoping.
by RDV across the sea on Jul 22, 2009 2:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Underwhelming?
Really? What were they supposed to get?
by TravisDW on Jul 22, 2009 3:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Upside
Seems like Diaz’ ceiling – the 5%, everything goes right possibility – is RP-level. You hope for a guy whose ceiling is at least above RP, even if it’s only a 5% possibility.
Take Garrett Jones – he’s almost certainly exactly what his MiL numbers suggest, but his lightning-in-a-jar ceiling is spectacular. If Diaz catches lightning in a jar, he’ll be Jack Wilson without the pop. More likely, he’s not even that (much more likely, he’s not even close – Bixler without the pop).
by JRoth95 on Jul 22, 2009 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Lightning-in-a-jar ceiling"?
Anybody can hit anything for 40 AB. Doing so doesn’t make a player any more or less valuable than he was before…
by Vlad on Jul 22, 2009 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
See Duffy, Chris circa 2005
Formerly known as Econolodge
by Willton on Jul 22, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good grief
My point is that Garrett Jones has hit 9 HR in 17 games. Argenis Diaz will not hit 9 HR in his career. It doesn’t matter if GJ drops to zero starting tomorrow; he has created more wRAA than AD ever will.
GJ’s value before this month should have – and did, it’s why NH picked him up – included this potential.
by JRoth95 on Jul 22, 2009 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t love Diaz or anything, but let’s be honest here. It’s not just about offensive upside. Diaz is potentially a Gold Glove shortstop, which basically means he could be one of the best defensive players in the majors. His upside is that he accidentally hits .300/.350/.340 while saving about 30 runs on defense. That’s something, even if I don’t think it’s very likely and would depend on a good deal of fluky batting average stuff happening.
by Charlie on Jul 22, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK
Honestly, from what you wrote, I wouldn’t have imagined his best offensive season looking like that – isn’t that about where Jack’s best 2-3 seasons have been? And this guy is showing significantly less MiL bat than Jack.
But hey, I like D, esp. at SS – see my 12:00 comment.
by JRoth95 on Jul 22, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I will add
If the guy never hits in the minors, he may never get the chance for the season you describe. If all the pieces are in place as we like to dream, it seems unrealistic that NH will include a guy who hits .235/.290/.280 at AAA in the Opening Day roster, regardless of defense. That’s the kind of thing a bad team will try (that’s why GJones is starting for us, but not for the Twins), but that a contender won’t.
by JRoth95 on Jul 22, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But the fact that he has had some success
Should mean that we don’t preclude the possibility of future success. Lighten up on the guy and just enjoy the ride.
I understand the skepticism on Jones, but it almost seems as if he is being punished here for playing above his head.
by Uncle Nate on Jul 22, 2009 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rats
I knew not to expect much, but I think I would have preferred another A player with more upside. AFAIC, A players are at best a crapshoot (except for Pedro types who are just passing through), but at least you may roll a 7 or 11. Seems like Diaz can’t achieve that.
That said, if he’s a great defender, then his bat is less alarming on a team with Gorkys/Cutch/Tabata plus Pedro. Maybe his D could be enough to zero out his poor bat, at which point he’s replacement-level, which we don’t currently have at SS.
by JRoth95 on Jul 22, 2009 3:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Trading LaRoche?
I’m canceling my season tickets and unlike when I said that after the McLouth and Morgan trades, I mean it this time!
by IAPiratesFan on Jul 22, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you should be
you should be done with this team if you honestly thought adam la roche was our future? im glad your done with this team biggyv
CITY OF CHAMPYINZ
by YINZER on Jul 22, 2009 3:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I assure you
That right now on MLB Home Plate or any other national baseball forum the “expert” analyst (say, Rob Dibble) is wondering how much more can Pirate fans take.
Why would that be their commentary? Because they are lazy and ignorant, and that’s what they said when NH had the testicular wherewithall to do the unimaginable in trading Eric Hinske.
In case anybody is confused, I am glad that we dumped Adam and consider it to be a rare case of addition by subtraction.
Good day.
by Uncle Nate on Jul 22, 2009 3:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah.
They are the same people that in the cold light of the off-season will be raving about the Bucs’ revamped farm system.
by RDV across the sea on Jul 22, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You’re implying that commentators like Rob Dibble ever talk about prospects. To “experts” like Dibble, every player currently in the majors is better and will always better than every player in the minors. In general, whoever gets the more known/popular player “wins”. The lack of research that analysts like those featured on shows like Baseball Tonight is embarrassing (obviously talking about the Phillips and Kruk type, moreso than the Olney type, who is embarrassing for other not too dissimilar reasons)
by wickethewok on Jul 22, 2009 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Harold Reynolds said something along the same lines the Monday night when the Bucs were beating the Brewers. He ranted about how the ownership should open the wallet and use the revenue sharing to pay for free agents. He did this for ten minutes. I’m totally on board with what the ownership is doing. I totally agree with Charlie’s post, we didn’t have many options with Mario. This was the best one. This should give Pearce a chance at first and if he fizzles, then Jones can take over.
"Baseball is better than football. Think about it, eighty degrees, a cold beer and a short-sleeve shirt is better than 30 degrees, a hip flask and six layers of clothes under a lap blanket. Take your pick: suntan or frostbite. " - Thomas Boswell
by Ketcham Bruce on Jul 22, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think a variant of the Harold plan could work.
We open the wallet to buy guns and handcuffs, and then use those to compel free agents to sign with us even though they’d rather play elsewhere.
by Vlad on Jul 23, 2009 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ve haff vays of making you zign!
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jul 23, 2009 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There was a bit of discussion about this trade over on Talkin’ Chop (LaRoche is still pretty popular among Braves’ fans) and I’m growing intrigued with projecting the Pirates team 2-3 years from now. I was hoping some of you guys might be able to provide some enlightenment on a few topics.
I’m guessing the outfield projects as Milledge, McCutcheon, and Tabata right now. Milledge probably ends up playing LF among those guys, so does Tabata profile more as a CF or RF?
Also don’t really know what your contract status is with most of your pitchers. I’m assuming that Ian Snell, Zach Duke, and Charlie Morton are all in the future plans, but not sure what their status is. Brad Lincoln looks like he could develop into a front-line starter, so it looks like there’s some solid pitching on the way, as well.
And hey, Pedro Alvarez looks like he’s only a year or two away, so where does that leave Andy LaRoche? And how good/bad is Alvarez with the glove?
Garrett Jones doesn’t seem like the long-term answer at 1B, so what’s in the system behind him?
Thanks for any responses-Don’t know why I got so caught up with the Pirates farm teams.
by Bronn on Jul 22, 2009 3:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Pedro will likely move to 3rd with his defense deficiencies. Tabata will likely move to RF. Snell will be gone sooner rather than later.
by Green_Wave on Jul 22, 2009 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Whoops
“Ian Snell” should have been “Paul Maholm.”
But I don’t know how long the Pirates control their rights/contracts, so I don’t know if Maholm/Duke might be candidates to be moved at next year’s deadline.
by Bronn on Jul 22, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pedro is probably a 1B in the majors.
He’s been very, very rough with the glove at third thus far, and not in a way that gives confidence about him making progress in the future. If that’s the case, Andy stays right at 3B.
Best ML-ready 1B option in the system is probably Steve Pearce, though unfortunately I think Garrett Jones gets a look first.
In any fight between Tabata and McCutchen over CF, Tabata moves.
by Vlad on Jul 22, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good stuff
I actually think this franchise is heading in the right direction-everything seems aimed at 2-3 years from now, with the way the team is drafting top college position players like Alvarez/Sanchez, and the trade targets all seem like high-A/AA prospects.
It’ll be interesting what Jack Wilson brings back in a trade-he’s been a highlight factory at SS in recent days.
by Bronn on Jul 22, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If they get the right deal
they will move them much like they did with McLouth. maholm is signed through 2011 with a 2012 option and Duke has two years of ARB left
by Green_Wave on Jul 22, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for clearing that up
I guess you don’t see the Pirates potentially locking up Duke for the long-term, then?
by Bronn on Jul 22, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't
but if management likes him enough i wouldn’t complain too much. Personally I think he regresses to a little better than what he was the past two seasons so I would sell high. But I’m just one opinion.
by Green_Wave on Jul 22, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But you're right
I’m more optimistic about Duke than you are, but his value declines with every start in a Pirates uni – trade him sooner, and the other team gets more value out of him. If I got a good offer, I’d trade him today (that said, this winter should see peak value, if he holds form the rest of the way).
by JRoth95 on Jul 22, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
McCutcheon will be CF. Tabata probably RF, but Milledge is a wild card – natural LF, but not good enough defensively to patrol it in PNC (he’s the worst defender of our 4 young OFs).
As others have noted, Pedro is likely to end up at 1B, especially if Andy LaRoche ever gets the power everyone says he has. We have effectively no in-house middle infield solutions.
None of the current good starters are under control beyond 2011 – I personally don’t expect any of them to be here. Due to roster shenanigans, we will have Gorzellany through 2012, which could be good. Brad Lincoln is a stud who should arrive middle of next year. Beyond that, Locke and Bryan Morris are the only real prospects in the system; they could arrive in 2012.
My personal take is that, because of youth and pitching turnover, the team is most likely to be right around .500 in both 2011 and 2012 and, if things go right, competitive in 2013.
by JRoth95 on Jul 22, 2009 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No strong feelings either way on Charlie Morton? I was overall pleased with the McLouth trade (as a Braves fan) but the one guy I really was sorry to see leave was Morton. He needs to work on his control, but he’s got 4 plus pitches, and seems like a strong middle of the rotation candidate.
by Bronn on Jul 22, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm on the record badmouthing the guy
So I’m not your best person to ask. I see someone who has been mediocre through the minors, has had some success in AAA, and has been terrible in the bigs. Now, he’s had 2 excellent starts here, so the “terrible” thing will start to evaporate soon, but I won’t get excited about Morton until I see 30+ starts. Every year for the last 6 (at least), the Pirates have had a young pitcher show absolute brilliance, maintained over months if not the whole season. Not a single one has gone on to greater success. So I’m jaded.
by JRoth95 on Jul 22, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like
his stuff but I’m not ready to form an opinion until he gets a few more starts under his belt.
by Green_Wave on Jul 22, 2009 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There are a few other SP prospects in the system.
Uviedo, most notably. Underrate him at your peril.
by Vlad on Jul 23, 2009 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I love his stuff
But is it as nasty now that he is a starter, or I guess he probably had to ease it back since he has to go longer?
by Slizeezyc on Jul 23, 2009 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Phillies Fan Here
Hey guys, Just stopping over from The Good Phight. I’ve been a phillies fan since I was 6, and I currently goto Penn State. This place is terrible for interstate sports, especially this year for all of you Burgh natives.
My question is, which a lot of people wonder about around here, is how can the Pirates organization just keep running themselves further and further into the ground? I mean it’s possible to be competitive, even if not successful. It just seems like your front office doesn’t want to bother. I would venture lack of funds among the ownership, but you guys would know more than I.
Heres to hoping you guys turn it around in coming seasons.
"I can play anywhere; First, Third, Left field, anywhere but Philadelphia." - Dick Allen
http://www.travismount.net
by tam5070 on Jul 22, 2009 3:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
They've actually been doing a good job
the past couple years in building the farm system and developing a way to become competitive. Others will have more to say on the subject.
by Green_Wave on Jul 22, 2009 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The FO doesn't care about the majors right now
There is literally zero concern about winning in Pittsburgh. Every move is made with an eye towards 2011 and beyond. 2010 figures to be worse than this year or the last 5. But 2011 could be over .500.
by JRoth95 on Jul 22, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Our old scouting director left the farm system as an absolute desert.
If they didn’t sell out on “being competitive” now, we would’ve been looking at an expansion team-level lineup in 2011 or thereabouts.
by Vlad on Jul 23, 2009 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And another one gone and another one gone
Another one bites the dust
Hey, gonna get you too!
Another one bites the dust.
by bucdaddy on Jul 22, 2009 3:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I’m impressed they got anyone useful in return and ate none of LaRoche’s remaining salary. There’s a very real chance Bixler gets a look at SS in 2010, and if that doesn’t make you queesy, think of the current options after him. If nothing else Diaz could be useful MLB cabable glove in a relative short time.
Keeping LaRoche would have increased the chances of him returning to Pgh in 2010.
by chicos_pants on Jul 22, 2009 4:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Keith Law..what is his problem?
He was on ESPN earlier breaking down the trade and said LaRoche is a “below average defensive first baseman”. Wow, really?? Has he seen the guy play 1B? LaRoche is terrible on the offensive side, but if you’re going to evaluate someone, do it fairly. No, LaRoche isn’t that good of an offensive player, but the guy is one of the better defensive 1B in the league. He’s above average, in my opinion.
by mspirate on Jul 22, 2009 4:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think van Slyke stole his lunch money
Has Law ever missed a chance to badmouth a Pirate? Not that I’ve noticed.
Actually, I wonder what he said about the Nady and Bay deals.
by JRoth95 on Jul 22, 2009 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
LaRoche’s UZR numbers have been below average for 6 of his 7 major league seasons. Not sure how he grades out on other fielding metrics, but UZR says he’s a little below average.
by maguro on Jul 22, 2009 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fangraphs
Has him the 32nd defensive first baseman in terms of value.
by thecheeseisblue on Jul 22, 2009 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
First base defense is tough to evaluate.
But if Law’s going by stats, he’s not wrong. The stats, as noted, don’t like LaRoche’s range.
by Vlad on Jul 23, 2009 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm looking forward to the super-D cameras
That track every player and every ball. I use UZR because it’s what we have, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all to find out that it’s been consistently wrong (in what ways I won’t speculate – does it misjudge certain types of players, does it get some positions more wrong than others, who knows?). Among other things, I really dislike how much it jumps from year to year, even for established players. You can come up with stories for why it should be so, but I think it’s more likely that it’s a dodgy stat than that a player in his 4th-6th seasons jumps from 5 to 18 to 12 in defensive rankings.
by JRoth95 on Jul 23, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If there's a problem with UZR...
…my guess is that it’d come down to an issue of fielder positioning within zones, and how the system handles in-zone balls vs. out-of-zone balls.
And of course, UZR tells you less about a 1B or a C than other positions, since it’s primarily a measure of range, and it doesn’t speak to a guy’s skill as a receiver.
by Vlad on Jul 23, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Anyone who isn’t happy with the return should blame Adam LaRoche for sucking wind in his walk year.
by Gorkys n' Beans on Jul 22, 2009 5:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
should have got an announcer for laroche
and gotten rid of that ‘cookie cutter’, skip caray sounding announcer Tim Neverett . he’s putrid.
by MrBasebrawlwer on Jul 22, 2009 6:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't say that
I like the content – he’s obviously worked hard to learn about the Bucs’ recent and ancient history, and his game knowledge seems fine – but his style does leave me pretty cold.
by JRoth95 on Jul 23, 2009 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Future Lineup
LF Gorkys Hernandez .310/30 SBs
RF Jose Tabata .270/15 hrs/20 sbs
CF Andrew Mccutcheon .300/18hr/30 sbs
1B Pedro Alvarez .270 35HRs
3B Andy Laroche .290 20HRs
2B Chase D’arnaud
C Tony Sanchez
SS Brian Friday
Utility glove Diaz
Pinch Hitter – Jim Negrych
C JJ
vet OF
D Young
P Paul Maholm
P Brad Lincoln
P Charlie Morton
P Tom Gorzelaany
P Ross Ohlendorf
Hanrahan
Chavez
Meek
Mccutchen – LR
Moskos
FA lefty
Karstens
Plus whatever we get for Duke, Capps, Doumit. A monster SS or closer would be nice to shoot for.
by Mr. E on Jul 22, 2009 6:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Milledge?
That still doesn’t look like a playoff-caliber team.
by ILLZ on Jul 22, 2009 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Probably not
We need a top 10 SS and then I could see it. The problem is our starters look more like 3,4 types than an Ace. It all depends on Lincoln but having 5 no.3 pitchers isn’t a bad thing either.
by Mr. E on Jul 22, 2009 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that rotation isn't good enough
for a 4th place finish.
by MrBasebrawlwer on Jul 22, 2009 10:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Depends on the offense
That rotation, in 2 years, is better than the current one, which is better than half the playoff teams in baseball. It’s not good enough for a small ball team, but it’s perfectly adequate if you’re getting 90 HRs from your 2-5 hitters.
People really overestimate how good pitching staffs on playoff teams tend to be. If you have a great staff, you can win regardless, but plenty of teams reach the playoffs, and even the Series, without 4 great pitchers (I’d guess the median playoff staff is 2 studs, an inning-eater, and 2 scrubs, but I haven’t actually looked to see if that’s true. You can certainly reach the playoffs with such a rotation).
by JRoth95 on Jul 23, 2009 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think some of those offensive projections lean optimistic.
And I don’t think Gorz is a #4 starter for a good team (or better than Ohlendorf at this point, for that matter).
by Vlad on Jul 23, 2009 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why so down on Gorzo?
Seemed to me that his main problems were fitness and approach. Both of those seem to have cleaned up quite a bit. Certainly his potential is #4 or better, even on a good team. Have you utterly given up on his approach, or do you see ancillary stats that prove he fundamentally sucks?
by JRoth95 on Jul 23, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The walk rate scares me.
He’s looking at 4.5-5 BB/9, based on his AAA numbers this year. You can succeed with that profile, but you use up a lot of pitches doing it, and you don’t have much margin for error on bad days.
by Vlad on Jul 23, 2009 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ah
It was certainly walks that killed him up here. I hadn’t looked at his totals, but just from keeping an eye on the Minor League Reports, it seemed like the BBs were more under control. And, indeed, in the minors this year he’s at 3.25 BB/9* (4.15 for the Bucs).
Looking at his history, it looks as if he’s consistently about 6 K/9, but his BB/9 bounces around like crazy – in the majors only, 4.5, 4.5, 3, 6, 4.15. Actually, in the minors he was never below 2.5 and never above 3.3. Even with his 3 terrible months in 2008, his major league average is 4.13; his combined MiL/ML average is 3.4 BB/9.
I think you may be overweighting last April-June.
- I realize you can’t just use this number as if it would apply to the bigs
by JRoth95 on Jul 23, 2009 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
3+BB at AAA is 4+BB in MLB
It is a good thing that he’s at least back to missing bats again, and that the HR rate is back down. But like I said, the walks scare me. And I don’t love the L/R split, either, if we’re putting him back into the rotation.
by Vlad on Jul 23, 2009 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Moss?
After all, he’s our fourth OF of the future!
Also, Isn’t Tabata supposed to have more power than that? I though that was why he was such a steal in the Nady trade.
by JRoth95 on Jul 23, 2009 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tabata has power potential.
I.e. the kind of frame that suggests that he’ll develop power as he fills out. There isn’t much actual power in evidence to date, which is typical for a player of his age.
by Vlad on Jul 23, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So how does he project?
Good power for a speedy CF (say, 15), or good power for a good defensive LF (say, 25-30)?
by JRoth95 on Jul 23, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think he's a corner OF in the bigs.
And I hate to get too definite on the offensive projection, since he’s so young. There are a lot of different places he could go from here. I’m reasonably confident that he’ll hit for average, because his contact rate is good, but it could be 15 HR with line-drive power, or it could be 25+.
Have to wait and see. Not very helpful, I know, but knowing that you don’t know is at least better than nothing, right?
by Vlad on Jul 23, 2009 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My Take
Is that 2011 will see a lineup like that, with too many unproven hitters to win more than 82. Then, in 2012, too many unproven/mediocre pitchers (if Locke & Morris show up then), 82 wins again. 2013 should see offense like what you outline (hopefully better MI) with, if Morris or Locke work out, a solid if unspectacular rotation (I’d say that we could have a rotation with 2 #2s and 3 #4s – anything more than that is optimistic, albeit possible).
by JRoth95 on Jul 23, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
all fine and dandy but
you better pray for mark cuban to buy this sad sack franchise. because even if you do develop good young players they will all be leaving via free agency. or traded away because management can’t or won’t pay them.
by MrBasebrawlwer on Jul 22, 2009 10:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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