The Fact of the Matter

by geeves on Jul 22, 2009 7:17 PM EDT Comment 16 comments

The thread was getting rather long, so I thought I would sort of start over up here. I think the largest problem in the discussion over playing time fo rGarrett Jones, Steve Pearce, Brandon Moss, Delwyn Young and so forth is that we find ourselve, through the wheelings and dealings of the newest management, with a plethora of "tweeners." Guys who can hit great but suck at defense, guys who are great defenders and can't hit, guys who are good enough at both to earn a shot but not so good that you want to be relying on them.

The problem is that now, with players like McCutchen and Milledge, we have more palyers than slots, and a scenario where every one of them (Jones, Pearce, Young, Moss) has produced enough, either in AAA or ML, that they've probably earned the right to at least one month of every-single-day playing time

Here' s (jn my opinion) what we know for sure:

Garrett Jones - Is likely to stay in the lineup until his bat cools off, though even if he doesn't his defense is bad enough that he's much better as a DH than an OF.

Delwyn Young - Has hit well enough that he deserves to have his bat in the lineup until it cools off. Can play two positions (RF/2B) unlike Jones, but still has defense poor enough that to truly maximize him he should be used as a DH

Brandon Moss - Has hit well enough in his minor league career to suggest that his major league numbers are more a matter of insufficient time to adjust than anything else (also proven by very respectable offensive numbers since a bad start). Also good enough defensively as a COF that he can be out there every day without being a waste of space at the plate OR in the field.

Steve Pearce - Again, has hit well enough over a long enough period of time that I don't think it's a reach to assume that the numbers he is putting up at AAA right now are numbers he could put up regularly in Pittsburgh, given sufficient regular playing time (which, no, he has not received yet. He got one shot to play everyday for more than a week, and that was for three weeks around this time last year). Not a great defensive OF, but has been moved to 1B where, by all indications, he is significantly less embarrassing.

To summarize, here is what I see: Through having the best minor league track record, Moss and Pearce are the most deserving of regular playing time, since they are at the very least capable both offensively AND defensively. Unfortunately, Jones and Young also have hit well enough that their bats should be in the lineup regularly, even if their defense is not stellar. If I were in charge, at least until Milledge comes up (two weeks or so) I would do the following:

Pearce - Five starts a week at 1B

Jones - 2 starts a week at 1B, another 2 - 3 starts a week in RF/LF

Young - 3-4 starts a week in RF, once a week at 2B

Moss - Five starts a week in LF/RF

That gives everyone regular starter AB's (at least four starts a week) while also putting the best defenders out there the most often. Once Milledge comes up, things change. Pearce likely stays at first unless he has produced nothing offensively. The loser of the Young/Moss/Jones triumverate gets voted off the island and the other two spend the rest of the year platooned in RF.

Far as I can tell, the only current player who loses out here is Jeff Salazar, and I give two shits about Jeff Salazar (Vasquez can still get his PT subbing once a day each for Andy and Jack).

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i also

meant to point out that, if you’ll remember, Nate McClouth was a “probably 4th OF, maybe if he comes together correctly a smallish everyday outfielder” who had never been given truly consistent playing time.

and then he was, and he wound up doing a pretty respectable impersonation of a very useful everyday major leaguer.

by geeves on Jul 22, 2009 7:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I will point out that Pearce...

is a normal 1B. Up until 2 weeks before he was called up to the Pirates in 2007…he had never played a game in the OF in the minors…and only had 10 OF games in the minors prior to the 2008 season. THAT is why he looked uncomfortable in RF.

I would think that knowing he is going to get a lot of playing time in the next several weeks…at a position he is actually comfortable playing…will allow him to relax. And probably put up numbers closer to what is expected of him.

by Thunder on Jul 22, 2009 7:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

and

jones played 1b today… thus totalling 2 positions he can play, OF and 1b… and when has his defense been so terrible that we lost a game? we cant score we need bats that can hit, he is hitting major league pitching… not AAA pitching like pearce in lastings…

CITY OF CHAMPYINZ

by YINZER on Jul 22, 2009 8:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

We've lost lots of games...

…since Jones came up, and whenever he didn’t make plays in the field, that contributed to those losses.

More importantly, we’re apparently shopping both Maholm and Duke at the deadline this year, and the last thing a pitcher who puts a lot of balls in play needs to maintain his trade value is an ironglove in the field behind him.

by Vlad on Jul 23, 2009 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The rundown:

Jones is going to play every day until he quits hitting. Probably in the OF the majority of the time. Jones has been at least average in the OF and his minor league fielding numbers at 1B say he’s pretty good there as well. The Pirates want to find out if this guy has real power or not. He will get every chance to hit his way out of the line up.

From what Neal Huntington said today, Pearce is going to play 1B. This IS his chance. He’s not likely to get another. At least not with the Pirates. 1B is his natural position, but he can probably shag balls in RF at home and in either corner on the road. If he fails, Jones will move to 1B. If not, he plays 1B the rest of the way and the OF picture remains crowded.

McCutchen is our CF now and for the next 6 years. Let’s hope even longer than that.

Milledge, although still in AAA, is going to get an opportunity to win the LF job. He is a solid prospect. It won’t be long before he is up and he will play LF everyday and maybe spell Cutch in CF when Andrew needs a day off. If Jones hasn’t moved to 1B, he goes to RF when Milledge comes up.

Young is going to get the bulk of the playing time in RF as long as he keeps hitting. He’s got average range, but is certainly below average in fielding skills. The bulk of this team is average or above average defensively, but since the offense is sluggish at best, he will get the majority of the starts over Moss. My guess is 4 or 5 a week while Moss gets 2 or 3. Young (and Moss) have both proven to be solid bench players and PHs, so having either one on the bench gives us a nice option in close games. If Freddy Sanchez gets traded, then Young will probably get a lot of time at 2B. Defensive plays there could become an adventure. If Freddy stays and both Pearce and Jones hit, Young will join Moss on the bench.

Moss will get the smaller of the playing time in RF. Moss has proven that he is at least average in the OF and probably better than that. As John Russell has said, the team is not satisfied with Moss’ “swing.” He has started to show some of that power we keep hearing about, but he is going to have to hit his way into more playing time. His future is probably linked to Pearce and/or Young….and possibly Jones. If any of those guys fail and Moss continues to show signs of getting better, then he will probably get regular playing time. As with Young, once Milledge hits town, if both Jones and Pearce are producing Moss will be limited to bench duty.

All that being said, personally I hope Freddy stays and that we even are able to work a short cost affective extension for another season or two. If that is the case and both Jones and Pearce produce, I really like the way things start to shake out. You then have:

C – Doumit and JJ
1B – Pearce
2B- Sanchez, L.Cruz (SS)
3B – LaRoche
SS – Wilson, Vazquez (3B/SS)
OF – McCutchen, Milledge, Jones (1B), Young (2B), Moss (Salazar*)

I don’t think Salazar is really needed with the depth we would have in the OF and we could carry 12 pitchers without him. If they decide to keep an extra player, I would actually like to see Robinzon Diaz come back so that JJ can get some occasional at bats. If Diaz has played some INF by then, he also becomes a super utility guy.

by Brakeman8 on Jul 22, 2009 9:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think your outlook....

is entirely too reasonable…which means it isn’t the way management is looking at it. ;)

by Thunder on Jul 22, 2009 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You are probably right about that. lol

by Brakeman8 on Jul 23, 2009 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think that "at least average in the OF"...

…is not really a supportable position.

PBP fielding metrics hate him, and he looks bad out there.

by Vlad on Jul 23, 2009 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thoase are the same metrics that said Nyjer morgan was the best in the game. Not sure I agree with that either.

by Brakeman8 on Jul 23, 2009 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's not entirely accurate.

They said that Nyjer was further ahead of an average player at his position than any other player in the game. I could buy Nyjer being a hugely better defender than the average LF.

To find the best overall defender, you’d need to take the rankings that you cite, and then add positional value adjustments. Which would probably move Nyjer behind the best defenders at more valuable positions (SS, CF, C, etc.).

by Vlad on Jul 23, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The other problem with using any kind of ratings right now is…as you like to point out…small sample size. Juding by what I have seen…and I have seen nearly every game he has played with the Pirates….I have seen Jones make a couple of difficult plays…all the average plays and not seen any real screw ups like I have seen Young make in the OF. Thus, I called him an average OF. His fielding percentages in the minors look average to above average, so I felt that warrented some merit.

by Brakeman8 on Jul 23, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

When I've seen him...

…he’s run fairly well for a big guy, but his reactions to balls have been slow, and he hasn’t always taken good routes. He looks like a first baseman in the outfield, which is what I’d been led to believe coming into the year, so that fits.

by Vlad on Jul 23, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Milledge non-callup reeks of locking him up at AAA for longer than we would like. I like Moss, Young, and Jones all to some extent, but that is a lot of mediocre players blocking an outfielder in Lastings who could really make a sustainable impact for us.

Pearce certainly does merit a serious look, though, as his upside is greater than the current corner OF options or Jones.

by Gorkys n' Beans on Jul 22, 2009 10:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I too wish we’d bring up Milledge already, considering how ridiculous he’s been at AAA so far.
However, we also can’t ignore that he missed 1 1/2 months because of that hand injury, going out in early May and not returning until late June, so perhaps the reason management’s giving him more time in AAA is because they don’t feel his hand is fully healed yet (this is all just conjecture of course, I have no real facts or anything to prove it). If this is the case however, I’d much rather he stay at AAA until he’s fully healed, instead of coming up early and reinjuring himself.
Even if he did come up right away, there’s a logjam in the outfield, since McCutchen’s a given, and Jones has to be given starts considering his ridiculous stretch right now. Not to mention Moss, who has 4 homers in 10 games, and Young, who has 2 homers in 7 games, going into tomorrow.
Chances are high the Pirates make at least 1 more deal before the trade deadline, so spot(s) could open up on the roster in the next few days for Milledge to be moved up to the Pirates.

by Akshay R on Jul 22, 2009 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree...

let’s see who is on the roster on August 1st. I’m not very concerned about Milledge not getting called up today, it’s just a question of time. We haven’t seen the last of the roster movement before the trade deadline. It’s who we have afterward that is important. Some of those moves will make other moves obvious.

by Thunder on Jul 23, 2009 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs