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On Garrett Jones: Let's Not Get Carried Away Here

As nice as it is to see a guy be rewarded for persistence, Garrett Jones should not be mistaken for a good player, and the last thing I'd want to see is a Tike-Redman-2003 situation where Jones gets off to a hot start, then gets way more playing time than he should for a year or so after that. 

John Russell today:

"I'm getting excited about our lineup, to be honest with you, and that has a lot to do with Garrett," Russell said. "Once we get Doumit back, and he's on his way, I think it's going to be interesting." Of Jones specifically, Russell added, "He could be one of those guys who just hasn't been given the opportunity. We think he looks really good, and we're looking forward to seeing more."

No. No no no. Nuh uh. For anyone familiar with Class AAA baseball (and you'd think that Russell, a former AAA manager, might be one of those people), Jones is so familiar he's practically a caricature--the big, defensively challenged slugger who isn't quite good enough as a hitter to make an impact in the bigs but who puts up some superficially impressive numbers at AAA just by virtue of being there for so many years. Every year the Pirates have a couple of these guys at various levels of the system. Jones is just Graham Koonce with fewer walks. He's Brad Eldred with less power and fewer strikeouts. He's Randy Ruiz playing at a higher level. He's Adam Boeve. Ryan Mulhern. Chris Richard. Andy Abad. John Barnes. I'm sure Jones is a nice guy, but as a player, he's a cliche. 

Of the twenty players listed as comparables on Jones' PECOTA card (subscription only), the only one who made any sort of impact in the big leagues was Luke Scott. The reason is simple: players like Jones put up decent hitting numbers in AAA, but they're only decent, and they're doing it in the prime of their careers, not at young ages when you might reasonably hope they'll get better. They also don't bring anything to the table defensively, so if they aren't very good big league hitters, there's no reason to keep them around. Jones' yearly OPS in the International League is about .800; I don't have the equivalencies in front of me, but that would come out to be about a .700 OPS in the majors, which won't cut it for a player of his type.

Jones had a great game yesterday. I get that. If this is the sort of excitement Russell needs to get him through the day, fine. If he wants to take it into account for a while as he sorts through a bunch of uninspiring corner outfield options, I guess that's also fine for now. But let's not go too far here. I suppose anything's possible, but there's really nothing in Jones' minor league record that says he's going to be helpful as anything more than a bench outfielder.

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Damn, you’d think he was Tyler Yates or something.

by WTM on Jul 3, 2009 5:31 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Looks like he and Pearce

could fill in at first if and when Adam is traded. By that time im sure they will hope Milledge will be healthy.

by bucsreport on Jul 3, 2009 5:47 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

He shouldn’t block Milledge when he is up, but when you have to fill a spot with Pearce, Delwyn, and Jeff Salazar, I have no problem riding the hot hand in this case.

by Gorkys n' Beans on Jul 3, 2009 7:23 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Same.

Jones isn’t promising, but neither is any other OF on the MLB roster aside from McCutchen.

www.sixtyftsixin.com

by Sixty Feet, Six Inches on Jul 3, 2009 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jones won’t block Milledge. He’s just another outfield option with legit power (12 HR in Triple-A) that is being given a shot because our other outfielders 1) have been traded or 2) haven’t stepped up and taken hold of the everyday starting job. Jones will continue to play outfield until Milledge gets called up and Ad. LaRoche gets traded. Then, Jones will probably be our everyday 1B the rest of the year IF he continues to hit. If not, the musical chairs will be in full force once again. The one thing that I think is different about Jones is that he was legitimately blocked by great talent in Minnesota. He wasn’t given much of a chance, and even though he’s older, he could be a solid player. I’m not saying he’s going to be our everyday 1B for the next three years, but if he can show good power and continue to hit, he could stick around for a while.

by mspirate on Jul 4, 2009 1:36 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

......"he could stick around for a while."

Hopefully not.

"So you think 25 percent of the country is retarded?! Yea. Atleast 25 percent. Well lets so a sample. There are 4 of us an you're retarded. Thats 25 percent." Southpark; Mystery of the Urinal Deuce

by gorillakilla34 on Jul 4, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ya never know.

by mspirate on Jul 5, 2009 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well.........

At least we found something that gets JR excited. I agree about Jones. If this guy was good enough, he would have broken into the Twins lineup somehow. I mean, we are talking about the league of the DH here. Let’s hope he turns out to be a competent platoon player and bat off the bench. Anything more is a bonus.

by Batavia on Jul 3, 2009 7:24 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

The Twins did give up on one David Ortiz...

Not saying that’ll ever happen again.

by ryebr3ad on Jul 3, 2009 7:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Steroids work wonders for some players……..allegedly.

"So you think 25 percent of the country is retarded?! Yea. Atleast 25 percent. Well lets so a sample. There are 4 of us an you're retarded. Thats 25 percent." Southpark; Mystery of the Urinal Deuce

by gorillakilla34 on Jul 4, 2009 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

True enough...

…though I’ve read that the Ortiz thing was as much about personality issues as anything else. They wanted him to focus on contact, even if it cost him power, and he wasn’t willing to go along with it.

Ortiz was, for the record, a MUCH better hitter in the minors than Jones was. As a 23-year-old in Salt Lake, he hit .315/.412/.590. Jones has had five cracks at AAA (age 24 to 28), and he’s never come within 150 points of OPS of that season.

by Vlad on Jul 6, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think.....

I’m a little more optimistic than you Charlie. While I subscribe to stats in the minors being very telling and predictige, the times I’ve seen Jones play (which I admit are less than 20), I’ve been favorable impressed.

I don’t think he’s as defensively challenged as you do and I laughed when someone called him lumbering and heavy-footed because he is anything but that. In fact he’s reasonably fast.

We’ll see how the next 200 at bats sort it out, but I’m cautiously optimistic.

by dtoddwin on Jul 3, 2009 7:38 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah. Dude can fly for a 6-foot-4, 235-pounder.

by mspirate on Jul 4, 2009 1:37 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You forgot...

Adam Hyzdu. I demand recognition.

by AdamHyzdu on Jul 3, 2009 7:50 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Fair enough. You too, Adam.

by Charlie on Jul 4, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Meanwhile, in a little-noticed development . . .

The Pirates released Craig Monroe. That means no team saw fit to work out a deal for him or claim him off waivers.

Remember a while ago when there were some fans clamoring for him to play regularly so we could “see what we had?” In fact, wasn’t there somebody here who was blasting the Pirates daily for starting Moss over him?

by WTM on Jul 3, 2009 11:48 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I believe

that person still comments here.

by Slizeezyc on Jul 4, 2009 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

trade A. Laroche

I agree with bucsreport. 1st base may be better for Jones than the outfield.

by tootallpaul on Jul 4, 2009 2:04 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

lets not forget mclouth

did anyone really think that our 4th outfielder in 07 would hit 20somthing homeruns, hit 94 rbi and score over 100 runs in a season? i know i didnt i thought that mclouth was basically a waste. and look at what he did last year. im not saying that jones will put up numbers like mclouth, but im definitly willing to see what he can do given the oppertunity. and maybe, just maybe the bucs will get lucky.

by buccosfan on Jul 4, 2009 3:25 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

That was me on Monroe.....

My point was we needed power, but Vlad and several others showed me the error of my ways. It was a stupid thought obviously.

Let Jones stay hot so we have something at first when we trade Ad. LaRoche. It’s not like Pearce is lighting it on fire or anything. I was getting nervous thinking that Pearce was going to be our everyday first baseman if and when LaRoche was traded.

by vanslyke on Jul 4, 2009 7:55 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Your logic wasn't bad.

You just underestimated the rate at which Monroe was aging.

Since the team offered him a contract and put him on the roster, there were evidently at least a few professional evaluators who felt the same way that you did.

by Vlad on Jul 6, 2009 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

We obviously don't need power

 …since virtually everyone here, it seems, can’t wait to get rid of the guy who leads the team in HR, RBI and OPS.

by Zadoras on Jul 4, 2009 8:53 AM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Well

Personally I’m looking forward to it. But certainly not because I don’t like him.

by ILLZ on Jul 4, 2009 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm looking forward

to seeing who we can fleece for him. Fleece the Yankees, fleece the Braves, (hopefully) fleece the Nats … We’ve been the fleecee for so long, this is starting to be fun.

by bucdaddy on Jul 4, 2009 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It will be tough

to get much of anything for LaRoche. As others have pointed out, the market for .850 OPS first basemen is not exactly red-hot. If Neal can get a solid prospect for Adam, he’s even better than I thought.

by maguro on Jul 4, 2009 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

tough but not impossible

look what Cleveland got for Casey Blake. When teams get desperate sometimes they do stupid things. It is common knowledge that Mario gets hot in the second half so maybe someone will give up something good for him.

"So you think 25 percent of the country is retarded?! Yea. Atleast 25 percent. Well lets so a sample. There are 4 of us an you're retarded. Thats 25 percent." Southpark; Mystery of the Urinal Deuce

by gorillakilla34 on Jul 4, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If you want to sell high on LaRoche...

…you need to emphasize his second-half surge.

This is, after all, a guy who had a .975 OPS in the second half last year, and a .994 in the second half two years before that.

by Vlad on Jul 6, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If by "virtually everyone"

you mean the four or five guys who echo the same comments on Big Laroche over and over, you’re right. I think that the reason the rest of us don’t respond anymore is not that we agree but rather that we stopped paying attention though.

by WestCoastBuc on Jul 4, 2009 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jones

I found your critique of Garrett Jones interesting, and it is probably right on – except for your alluding to Luke Scott. While Scott is not going to make the All-Star team any time soon, he is having a very credible year for Baltimore. True, Baltimore uses him in the DH role often, which the Pirates cannot do with Jones, but still late blookming role players are quite significant in baseball development.

by Buckeye Coop on Jul 8, 2009 6:16 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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