More Thoughts on Tim Alderson
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jul 30, 2009 2:42 PM EDT
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Jenifer Langosch reports that Delwyn Young could get the bulk of the playing time at second base down the stretch. I'm not a huge Young fan, but at this point, hey, why not? He can certainly hit enough to stick at second. The issue is his fielding, which probably isn't nearly good enough, but I suppose it can't hurt to find that out for sure. Young comes out as one of the biggest winners in the Freddy Sanchez deal.
BP: Five Minutes with Tim Alderson
A brief interview with new acquisition Tim Alderson who, at the very least, sounds like an intelligent kid who knows who he is. If you have any questions about what kind of pitcher he is, this answers them--he's not going to blow hitters away with his fastball.
Alderson probably currently ranks as the Pirates' top pitching prospect, but again, I want to caution against getting too excited here. Baseball America ranked Alderson as the 45th-best prospect in all baseball before the season, and I think that's a mistake. I think of Will Inman, who has posted better strikeout rates than Alderson at similar ages throughout his minor league career, and still doesn't get much love as a prospect. Alderson's better--he probably throws a little bit harder, and he doesn't really have Inman's flyball tendencies. (Alderson is also taller, which scouts love. But as WTM is fond of pointing out, that probably doesn't mean a whole lot. I think I'm going to stop using the word "projectable" to describe young pitchers.)
Like Alderson, Inman breezed through the low minors, posting impossibly low ERAs at Class A West Virginia (back when it was still a Brewers affiliate) and Class A+ Brevard County. When he got to Class AA, though, things started to go wrong--his strikeout numbers remained high, but his walks increased. This year he pitched very well for in eight starts at Class AA San Antonio, but has come apart upon being promoted to Class AAA Portland, as his strikeout rate has decreased and hitters have whacked 15 homers off him in 63 innings. He's now 22 and is rarely described as a top prospect anymore. He'll probably make it to the majors, but I wouldn't bet on him being particularly successful.
Alderson is a better prospect than Inman, and the parallel isn't perfect, but it still isn't totally clear to me why Alderson excites people, while no one could talk about Inman a couple years ago without pointing out his flaws. Alderson's very low strikeout rate since being promoted to Class AA is, to me, a huge red flag--pitchers like Inman who are crafty but lack great stuff can breeze through the low minors and then run smack into a brick wall when they reach Class AA or Class AAA. So the question is this: Why won't Alderson hit that wall? Of course I hope he doesn't, but I'm not really sure why he wouldn't.
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Heyman says Cubs/Pirates having “serious discussions” about Grabow.
Rosenthal/Morosi say Rangers aren’t in on Capps.
Via BA’s top-10 for the Cubs, their best MIs are Starlin Castro, Ryan Flaherty & Hak-Ju Lee (all are in lower levels right now). There’s also Tony Thomas, who’s in AA or AAA (don’t remember) who’s been playing well, but scouts question his defense.
Could Grabow land a top-10 guy in their system?
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That's good then
the MI’s in their top 10 are all in the lower half…
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Of course Alderson might fail, no prospect is a sure thing, but he’s probably about as good a prospect as you could hope to get for Freddy Sanchez. And let’s face it, if he were a 20 year old averaging 9 Ks a game at AA, he wouldn’t have been traded for Freddy Sanchez.
Agree
I generally understand Charlie’s concerns about Alderson, but if you are looking objectively, what better return could you expect for Freddy in a deal where we don’t give cash?
Me too
Three weeks ago all indications were that a worthwhile baseball return was not to be had for Jack and/or Freddy but that the Bucs were going to move them in a salary dump. We still don’ t know if the team is cheap under the new administration (including Nutting), but the return was surprisingly positive in baseball terms.
Good day.
Cash
I figured the only way we’d get a high upside guy would be to include cash; I’m mostly happy that we seem to have done so without paying $$.
That said, I appreciate Charlie’s caution; the exultation here about Alderson yesterday was kind of embarrassing. He’s a promising pitcher struggling at AA, which describes about 50 guys out there. Whatever you want to think about his specifics, you have to look at him as 1 of 50, and how many of those 50 will be frontline ML starters?
Compared to Will Inman, Alderson is younger and taller, has a better arsenal, is a ground ball pitcher, and has much better command since 2006. IMO it’s a lot harder to gather some similarities.
by Gorkys n' Beans on Jul 30, 2009 2:59 PM EDT reply actions
Alderson isn't that much of a groundballer.
Basically 1:1 this year.
Still a very good prospect, though.
He's working on his 2-seemer this year.
With his height and the downward plane on his pitches, he could develop a very good sinker.
Still the loving, adoptive father of Hector Sanchez. And who doesn't love switch-hitting catchers with power and patience?
I agree about Alderson
His walk rate is amazingly low considering his age and level, but I see that strikeout rate as being extremely problematic going forward. Cutting down on walks is easier than increasing strikeouts.
There’s risk for most young pitchers. There’s also risk in extending a gimpy club footed overachiever due a baloon payment.
The low Ks are the only red flag with Alderson, but it’s unfair to label him “crafty”. The scouts like his stuff and he probably has a lot of room to grow, but I think of crafty pitchers as ones who rely mostly on makeup over skill. By all accounts, he has excellent command of 3 pitches and impeccable control.
All scouts
except Keith Law. Who, as soon as a prospect becomes a member of the Pirates’ org, cannot say anything good about them. Link (second bullet point)
Show me a guy whos afraid to look bad, and I'll show you a guy you can beat every time. -Lou Brock
Grabow going to the Cubs?
Heyman via Twitter says Grabow and another pitcher could be headed to Chicago
If there's any kharmic justice in the world
It’ll be Grabow for Vitters. But I’m not counting on it
Not that it is a big deal,
but I presume that any deal with the Cubs will include our acquisition of the Cubs rights to Veal. In that way, we could keep him and salvage part of the 2009 season for him.
Good day.
That makes sense
and we can send him down.
Though we don’t have anyone to call up and replace him…
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BA has both guys
in the Dodgers top 10 (#5, #8). Wow.
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John Sickels has Johnson just outside his top-20, and Bell at #10
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Thoughts on Alderson
At age 19, Alderson pretty much owned A+ ball, and while his K/9 didn’t blow you away, it was 7.7, which is respectable.
Once he got promoted to AA this year, he started great and has gotten worse each month:
May: 19 IP, 21 K’s, 1.89 ERA.
June: 30.2 IP, 16 K’s, 2.64 ERA
July: 23 IP, 9 K’s, 5.87 ERA
Not sure what all this means (could he be hurt or working on his changeup/delivery?), but it makes it hard to look at the average numbers as a good estimation of how good he could be.
charity standing orders
I don’t know how much variance there is with K rates, and I’ll admit that ~20 IP isn’t a lot, but I have a hard time believing that 5 starts in a row with a significantly worse K/9, H/9, ERA, WHIP than previously shown is just statistical noise.
charity standing orders
Happens all the time.
Could be what’s going on here, could be not. We need more info before we can say.
It may just be
A 20 year old struggling a bit in AA. It happens.
Plus his K per 9 isn’t even one less per 9 than this Bumgarner kid everyone’s ape over. Is it really that big a difference? The ERA’s alot lower though, so I guess that’s the difference
Changeup
The Giants have reportedly been putting a lot of emphasis on the development of Alderson’s changeup this year, which could be a big reason why his K’s are down, especially as the season has progressed. A developed changeup can lead to more strikeouts, but a developmental changeup (inconsistent results, strategic inexperience) can lead to fewer strikeouts and more contact. I haven’t seen Alderson throw this year, but that might be an explanation for the dip in K numbers. It’s a trend that may continue in Altoona, because the Pirates player development personnel also lean toward developing a changeup in young pitchers.
Coming from someone who has seen Alderson pitch a few times – but not since May – I think you’re dead on.
Alderson has basically two ways to the majors. He either puts some life on the fastball, or he gets a really good changeup going. If he gets both he’ll not just make the majors but be a very, very dangerous pitcher. (The curve is pretty much already there, and was probably the best in the Giants system. The control is among the best in the minors period.) Part A of above argument was very definitely behind schedule for right now, so I strongly suspect they’ve been emphasizing development of Part B.
One thing that the vast majority of Giants fans (and unfortunately Giants management – their GM has never been to the stadium, and they keep asking kids to hit 20 HR there and screw up their strokes) aren’t aware of is that the home stadium for the AA team may have played a role in this too. The outfield is absurdly deep, with wind often blowing in from dead center. If you have the outfield back (as they often do, since if you miss with a fastball it just ends up being a long out) and you’re a control pitcher getting your change hit a bunch, those are going to fall in ahead of the outfielders. Same goes for the curve, which is very good but unlike A hitters, at least a few AA hitters can make contact on it. This may also explain the lower strikeout rate.
If you look at Alderson’s K/IP rate this kind of backs this theory up: 39/31 IP at home, 37/41.2 IP away. It’s a small sample size, but more importantly his walk rate was actually better than last year in both stadiums despite the hits (6/31, 8/41.2). He’s not missing, just getting hit more, and it’s why I’m not sure I buy the ‘control’ isn’t there anymore.
I don’t know what to make of the last month, and Sabean has a very good reputation of dumping young pitchers who end up flaming out. (It’s also worth noting that he didn’t mention Alderson being a major league pitcher, which he did with the other A level prospect he gave up.) True control pitchers are an odd bunch though; they never quite have great numbers in the minors but seem to be pretty much consistent in translating them to success in the majors. Look at what happened to Kevin Slowey – never struck out much of anyone in the minors, but he looked to be a very serviceable pitcher before that wrist injury.
It’s a very worthwhile risk for the Pirates, and a lot more than they should have gotten for what basically was a salary dump. He may not pan out, and the risk of it is a lot higher now than it was at the beginning of the year, but while I’m a Giants fan I’ll still be rooting for the kid. Along with the Bucs a bit, since the fact there are still fans after what you guys have been through is impressive.
Gorzo
Am I the only one who thinks that we may be giving up on him a bit too quickly? He was pedigreed prospect who has had some success in the bigs. Since when can we afford to give up on young, cheap, lefty SPs after just one failure.
Good day.
Right there with you
We need to get B+ or A- prospect for both of these guys. Less than that, and it’s foolish.
problem is
the cubbies don’t really have any
Don't get your hopes up too high
the Cubs don’t have many B+/A- prospects.
Sickels rated Vitters a B+. No one else is higher than a B.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/11/29/675375/chicago-cubs-top-20-prospe
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Don't do it NH!
Seriously, if the Cubs don’t have the horses….
I swear to god, if this is another trade for A-ball pitchers, I’m quitting on this rebuilding….
The Pirates are going to have to sign another A-level club for all the A pitchers they’re accumulating.
B+ or A-...
…for a guy who profiles at this point as a #4 and a situational lefty.
The Alderson trade spoiled you guys rotten.
Dejan
Cubs/Buccos talking Grabow/Gorzo, no deal in place
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Also says it might not happen
b/c other teams are interested in Grabow
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Sounds a lot like “no deal in place fo Sanchez and other teams remain interested.” We know how that ended up. lol
Well
the return for Sanchez was nice.
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it would have to be a pretty good haul to give up grabow and gorzo. grabow could be a type A at the end of the year and the cubbies (unlike us) shouldn’t be afraid to offer him arbitration and we all know about gorzo.
my thoughts exactly
grabow is proven at ML level
ditto gorzo, though his stock isnt the highest. At his best, he can be a front end starter! And he is doing good things at AAA, and has shown (in 2007) that he can do it in the majors
Cubs "in process of finalizing trade"
http://sports.espn.go.com/chicago/news/story?id=4366949
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Shouldn't affect the deal, but from Dejan...
If such a deal were to take place, unless a left-hander or two comes in return, the Pirates would be all but depleted of left-handed relievers at the top three levels of the organization. Donnie Veal is all that remains in Pittsburgh, and there is no one of note in Indianapolis or Altoona, save for rehabilitating Phil Dumatrait.
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the only lefty pitchers in altoona are kyle bloom and tony watson, neither of which you’d probably want to see in the bullpen though bloom did get a rule 5 pick from detroit. if gorzo goes, there’s not even a lefty of any kind at indy starter or otherwise.
without a lefty return it could just be veal.
Gorzo would be included...
According to Heyman
http://twitter.com/SI_JonHeyman/status/2936874775
gorzelanny would go with grabow to cubs.
"anyone left on the Pirates"
is he bashing the pirates as well?
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Hells Bells
if the Chronicle of Higher Education is getting in on the act, I imagine everyone will pile on…
"bash" is too strong
I mean, literally, the Pirates are down to their last 5 tradeable ML players (not counting trades of young guys like Andy or Moss or whoever): Doumit, 2 starters, 2 relievers, plus Gorzo in AAA.
This morning I thought to myself, “well, that should do it for this year,” then I remembered that Grabow’s still here.
I would think
the downgrade overall on the bucs’ defense will have the consequence of making pitching look worse for the remainder of the season. So it would make sense to unload most anybody with an arm now, rather than after the season ends.
Not a big fan, but....
Let’s say the Bucs do land Vitters. What’s teh chance of LaRoche playing second base. i know he has not played there much at all and I have not been a fan of moving him, but we certainly would have a need there. A little competition between him and Delwyn Young.
Thoughts?
if they land vitters i’ll eat my hat. same with laroche playing second this year. why do people keep proposing that?
I’m not proposing…just asking. I’m with you. I keep hearing it from fans, but never seem to get that feeling from DK or anyone with the Pirates that it’s even an option.
Probably because (and I'm just speculating b/c I don't really know)
we have Pedro at 3rd. Pearce/Clement at 1st. Add Vitters, you have another 3rd baseman. 2nd base is all that’s left
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like you, not a big fan
i really really liked Gorzo, and would like to see him get a shot at putting it together in pitt… this guy is a very legit SP, or can be!
Unless, relations have soured to the point of Snell behind the scenes, I’ll not be happy if he isnt moved for a pretty solid prospect (or set of prospects)
agree with you
i want better than we got for snell though…
remember, gorzo is ML ready, cheap, and most likely to step into the rotation and not look out of place at all… having seen VV, dont you dream of getting the 07 Gorzo back? Who had 14 wins and could hav had 20 if the Bucs had given him offense?
Don't move Gorzo
OK, he’s not “untouchable,” but he’s our only “veteran” starter who will (thanks to NH’s roster shenanigans) still be here after 2011. Which means, by definition, he’s the only one of Maholm, Duke, and himself who could ever see the postseason* in Pittsburgh. He’s looked pretty solid at both AAA and in relief here; if he falters, I don’t see where his value would be much less than it is now – why not keep him? Assuming he’s got his shit back together, he’s extremely valuable to us for 3 years, and his trade value only goes up.
All of this, of course, is predicated on not getting a Pedro-grade prospect in return. But, IMO, anything less would be dumb.
- I think we all agree that postseason for 2011 is a slim chance, yes?
Gorzo's already burned two of his pre-arb years.
For a guy with a fairly low ceiling (which is what he is, at this point), the clock is not your friend. They quickly become more expensive through arb than their abilities warrant.
Some more "low" K/9 rates
These guys had comparable if not lower K/9 rates in the minors to Alderson
Halladay 5.9
Buehrle 6.6
Zach Duke 7.1
Aaron Cook 6.1
John Lannan 6.3
Gavin Floyd 7.1
Nick Blackburn 5.6
Ricky Romero 7.0
John Lackey 7.1
I’m sure there are more that have low K/9 rates, but relying on that stat alone to say a pitcher isn’t going to be good is a little irrational in my opinion
Show me a guy whos afraid to look bad, and I'll show you a guy you can beat every time. -Lou Brock
He also doesn’t have great stuff, which I also pointed out in the post.
A lot of these examples are apples and oranges. A few of the guys above are groundball pitchers. Alderson really is not. If he were, it would be different.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jul 30, 2009 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I wasn't trying to argue against your points
but most of the comments I’ve seen at different sites and what-not have complained solely about his K/9 rates. I was just saying that a low K/9 isn’t the end of the world. I agree that he has work to do, especially on his change up.
Show me a guy whos afraid to look bad, and I'll show you a guy you can beat every time. -Lou Brock
If not Vitters
Maybe the go for quanity in the middle INF and send Grabow and Gorzo for Castro, Flaherty and Lee.
Has Dejan's blog
hit the dumps for anyone else?
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Rocco via Twitter
Saying several people are saying the Pirates/Cubs are finalizing a deal. Sound like we should all know something soon.
Cubs top-30 prospects
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Yeah... no LHPs there
sad.
I guess the LHP we get from them is Veal
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Told ya
In 29 minutes DK went from warning that it might noit even happen to…it’s just about done. lol
Funny
just below his last two twitter updates is one saying the Pirates aren’t likely to do anything
Show me a guy whos afraid to look bad, and I'll show you a guy you can beat every time. -Lou Brock
The Cubs Owe us
for the the Ramirez trade, and i’m sure they feel really guilty about it. they probably want to make it up to us so we can be friends again. Maybe they’ll even throw in Castro or Flrherty b/c they know we need a little MIF help.
FWIW
via twitter, Ed Price says a friend of Grabow says Grabow to Cubs is almost done.
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Ugh.
Dejan on Twitter links to his blog saying Gorzo/Grabow almost done.
Obviously, his blog is down, so you can’t read anything.
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The complete silence on the possible return is amazing
Makes me think it could be very good, or….well, I don’t want to think about or. lol
Damnit
Can we hurry this hting up I have to fold laundry and shave before my girlfriend gets home in 20 minutes.
via MLBTR
Kovacevic says Grabow and Gorzelanny to the Cubs is almost done, while Chris De Luca of the Chicago Sun-Times says they closed the deal.
No links
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I doubt it
Yankees missed out on some of their OF targets (Anderson to KC from Detroit). Maybe we can send them Salazero?
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Link on De Luca
http://twitter.com/ChrisDeLuca/status/2937097142
(Yeah, it’s Twitter)
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looks like tomorrow
is gonna be boring. I love, by the way, that we aren’t waiting until the last second to do these deals. I’ve said it before, but it suggests a level of strategy and preparation that should be expected but which was so lacking for years.
Good day.
We made up....
…for Morris yesterday by getting Alderson.
dare we make up for the ARam fiasco today by getting Vitters?
It sure would be nice!
Nothing on what the Cubs are giving up...
I’m scared
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same here
and i can’t help but fear, we might sell lower on gorzo than snell!
i want really really good players if we give up gorzo- he’s major league material!
and wow...
i d hate to see him go more than anyone else we ve traded away!
the guy can be pure gold, if he puts it together!
Jake Fox anyone? lol he would fit nicely in the mix of Clement, Pearce and Jones as a future 1B. lol
Interesting thought
Anyone who trades for Gorzo will want to use him in the bigs right away, which would cost that team an entire year of control for about 4 starts.
Gorzo should be hoping for a trade, get to FA an entire year earlier.
He would still be in the same boat
as service time is determined by days on the major league roster
Show me a guy whos afraid to look bad, and I'll show you a guy you can beat every time. -Lou Brock
OK, they don't need a starter
Their weakest guy, Randy Wells, is doing fine, if not great – can’t imagine them plugging Gorzo in.
They must not like their long reliever/swingman.
Or they’re buying low on Gorzo, in which case ARGH.
I'm guessing
something along the lines of it better not be Vitters and we are going to rape them like in the a-ram trade
Show me a guy whos afraid to look bad, and I'll show you a guy you can beat every time. -Lou Brock
BleedCubbieBlue
is silent. Like literally… their game thread hasn’t even updates in a while.
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And they're in the 6th inning of the game right now.
Hasn’t updated in almost an hour though, it seems.
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And
their fanshot on the trade comes with “Who’s Tom Gorzelanny”
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They jump
to an overflow thread using a link somewhere near the bottom of the original normally.
Show me a guy whos afraid to look bad, and I'll show you a guy you can beat every time. -Lou Brock
Okay
had a feeling it was something like that. I was looking for an overflow thread on the main page, but didn’t see one.
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i can’t find one this time though, maybe the person in charge is at work
Show me a guy whos afraid to look bad, and I'll show you a guy you can beat every time. -Lou Brock
The links
are actually at the top of the post, between the picture in the original post and before the comments start
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i see
The only times I’ve followed one of their threads in when we’ve played them and normally someone posts a comment with a link. But it makes more sense I’m guessing to have a link in a more stable place
Show me a guy whos afraid to look bad, and I'll show you a guy you can beat every time. -Lou Brock
Yeah
Never followed there, so I had to search for “overflow”…
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here's some reaction to the wilson/snell deal
As for the Pirates – it’s a disgrace that a major league organization can just surrender like this, despite being only a few years removed from opening a new ballpark. They should be contracted. Actually I take that back. They should be kept around just so the Cubs can pound the tar out of them every year. And occasionally steal their power-hitting third basemen.
come on NH, let’s get something good here.
surrender?
what did we surrender this year?, 75 wins?
Show me a guy whos afraid to look bad, and I'll show you a guy you can beat every time. -Lou Brock
In other news...
Indy an 11-3 winner today.
Shelby Ford 5-for-5
Neil Walker 3 hits (2 HRs)
Bixler 3 hits
Milledge did not play. Must be on a plane to the Burg.
30 mins since DK's last tweet
Makes me believe a deal is now done, but they are waiting until the Cubs game ends to make it public.
Ugh.
Too far away. It’s already pretty much over… just announce it.
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In the same boat here.
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primarily because
i cant imagine how it gets better!
cubs prospects are all somewhat average… vitters wont be dealt, surely
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