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If the 2007 Pirates had only built around....

            Fairly or unfairly, one of the criticisms of the Pirates is that, "they could be contenders if they would have built around Bay, Nady, and other players they traded away." This is often tied to the off-hand remark that we’ve traded away our entire 2007 (or 2006 or 2008) starting line-up. I’m sure I’ll hear both of these lines from Mets and Yankees fans when I report back to the salt mines on Monday. So I wanted to jump into the "way-back" machine and see if this criticism holds up.

Star-divide

            I looked at the 2007 Pittsburgh Pirates[1], who finished in 6th place with 68 wins and 94 losses under Jim Tracy. This was the season that ended with the firing (choirs singing allelujah) of Dave Littlefield and subsequent hiring of Neal Huntington in September of that year.

 

Here are our starting position players and an abbreviated depth chart:

 

1     C        Ronny Paulino                                           Ryan Doumit[2]

2     1B      Adam LaRoche                                          Josh Phelps/Brad Eldred/Matt Kata

3     2B      Freddy Sanchez                                         Jose Castillo

4     SS      Jack Wilson                                                Cesar Izturis (?)/Don Kelly

5     3B      Jose Bautista                                              Jose Castillo

6     LF      Jason Bay

7     CF     Nate McLouth/Chris Duffy[3]                      Nyjer Morgan/Rajai Davis

8     RF     Xavier Nady

 

Our team offense ranked: 

* 10/16 in batting average (.266 v. a .267 NL average)

* 12/16 in home runs (148 v. a 169 NL average)

* 12/16 in runs/game (4.47 v. a 4.71 NL average)

* 12/16 in total runs (724 v. the Phillies’ league-leading 892)

* 12/16 in stolen bases (68?! The league average was 98, the Mets had 200!)

* 7th in strikeouts (that is, we had the seventh most strikeouts...) 

* 8th in grounding into double plays

* Last in drawing intentional walks

 

 

Here are our starting pitchers:

1          Ian Snell                      9-12     3.76 ERA        1.33 WHIP      6.5 innings/start

 

2          Tom Gorzelanny         14-10   3.88 ERA        1.39 WHIP      6.3 innings/start

 

3          Paul Maholm               10-15   5.02 ERA        1.42 WHIP      6.1 innings/start

 

4          Zach Duke                  3-8       5.53 ERA        1.73 WHIP      5.6 innings/start

 

5          (Yaarrrgghhh) Matt Morris or Shawn Chacon or Tony Armas or Shane Youman and don’t forget (Double Yaarrrgghhh) John Van Benschoten.  Some other sadist will have to calculate the average ERA, WHIP, and innings/start for this motley crew. I’m betting a beer that they averaged less than 5 innings per start. Our #5 choir was 15 and 24, although some wins and losses came when they were middle relievers. This group is clearly topped by JvB’s 10.15 ERA and impressive 2.15 WHIP.  I’m not saying that we had to write off every 5th game, but ... the stats above reinforce my faint memories (or nightmares?) that 2007 was the year the starting pitching died. I believe the 2008 season was the year the offense died....

 

 

Here are some selected bullpen guys:

 

            The "big five" were Matt, Shawn Chacon, Salomon Torres, John Grabow, and Damaso Marte. Between them, they finished 111 games and pitched 320 innings. The fifteen other pitchers who appeared in the bullpen (or as a spot starter) that year pitched 365 innings. In a 162 game season, your pitchers pitch approximately 1,460 innings. That means our primary relievers pitched over 20% of our season’s innings, and our middle reliever scrubs pitched another 20+% of the innings for the season. I have absolutely no concrete evidence to support this, but my gut feeling is that this just can’t be a good thing. That means our five starters (counting only Matt Morris in the number 5 spot) pitched less than 60% of the innings for the season.

 

 

How did our team pitching stats rank?

 

* Our team ERA of 4.94 was 14 out of 16 NL teams.

* Our runs surrendered/per game was 5.22, over ½ a run over the NL average and again putting us 14 out of 16 teams.

* We were 15/16 in WHIP at 1.48; on average, our pitchers allowed 10 hits and 3 walks per 9 innings pitched.

* But, our pitchers "pitched to contact," as we were 13/16 in strikeouts.

* And we were 1st in hits allowed.

* And we were 6th in home runs allowed

 

 

            So my question for all of the "experts" who think we were one player away from the World Series is, "what the H***" was Neal Huntington supposed to do that he hasn’t done?"  

 

            We had just traded for "Lefty McThump," aka Adam LaRoche, aka Adam LaWhiff to cure our offensive woes, give us a power threat, and protect Jay Bay and X-man. 

 

            We promoted Ryan Doumit and traded Joggin’ Ronnie, something that the past regime had been reluctant to do even though Joggin’ Ronnie was clearly mailing it in during the 2007 season.

 

            Nate the Great earned the starting center field position even though Chris Duffy was "the veteran" at that position.

 

            Clearly Nyjer, who was a competent back-up, should have been promoted to replace either Jason Bay or X-man because Nyjer was just so great....

 

            We had a gaping sucking chest wound at 3rd base.... I don’t see anything in the pipeline to replace him, although I understand that Neal Walker was "just around the corner."  

 

            So what single free agent outfielder, catcher, or 3rd baseman was out there that would have moved our offense into the top half, let alone the top 1/3rd of NL teams????

 

            Similarly, our pitching stats speak for themselves. So what three free agent starting pitchers were we going to sign (even our 1st and 2nd starting pitchers were not much to write home about) to make our pitching staff respectable?

 

            And please don’t tell me that we should have traded from our deep farm system or our Major League roster to acquire the help we needed... What exactly do we expect the Boston Red Sox or New York Yankees to give up for Joggin’ Ronnie, Jose Bautista, or Matt Morris (as I recall, after he retired, no one even invited him back for a Minor League contract).

 

            So, when someone tells you that the current regime doesn’t know what they’re doing with these trades, please give them the above facts and ask them exactly what they are supposed to be doing.


[1] All info and stats are from www.baseball-reference.com

[2] "Joggin’ Ronnie" started 130 games, but Ryan got almost 400 plate appearances.

[3] McLouth got just under 60% of the plate appearances and hit .258.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.

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Comments

Display:

Only if we had built for this year

we could have had a chance at the wild card if we had traded Nady because our starting lineup
1. Andrew McCutchen CF
2. Nate Mclouth RF
3. Freddy Sancez 2B
4. Jason Bay LF
5. Ryan Doumit C
6. Adam LaRoche 1B
7. Jose Bautista 3B
8. Jack Wilson SS
9. Pitcher

and our pitching staff after trading Xavier Nady would be

1. Zack duke
2. Paul Mahalom
3. Tom gorzalany (think I spelled it right)
4. Ross Ohlendorf
5. Ian Snell/Virgil Vasquez/Jeff Karstens

Offense that can hit with anyone and a pitching staff that can keep us in games. We could have won the Wild Card or maybe won the Division as weak as the Central has been this year but noooooooo we just had to trade Jason Bay instead of trying to build a winner next year We have to build for 2011 when we trade everyone else because how dare the pirates try to win.

by WVPiratesfan on Jul 31, 2009 8:15 PM EDT reply actions  

So you realize that the Cardinals are about to take the division in stride, correct?

You also realize that we would have no future at all with that line up, right?

You’re also aware that Mr. Clean Up Jason Bay is regressing so badly that he only has a .240 slugging average this month. On the Red Socks it isn’t noticable, but on this team where he’s the only big hitter, everyone will notice.

But, please, keep trying to justify.

by ryebr3ad on Jul 31, 2009 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’m not posting the numbers again. I’m not. If you, Mr WVfan, aren’t willing to look up the stats before you post here something like that, then you don’t deserve it. Just be aware the Bay has seen a 24 point drop off in his OPS. This considering his OBP is up! McLouth has had something very similar happen, with a 48 (48!) point drop off with an almost identical OBP. They aren’t hitting for power. Plain and simple.

Look them up for yourselves, if you can read.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bayja01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mclouna01.shtml

Read before you post. I am sick of seeing the same exact arguement made in every comment, with the same rate of success: 0%

The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.

by glass0941 on Jul 31, 2009 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

I see one loss every five starts guaranteed

with no guarantee at the three spot either. I also see no offense at the 6-7-8-9 spots along with no defense in the left, right, 3rd, or catcher. I also see a jason bay that is barely a good player now and not the great player people like you exalt him to be (check the stats and you’ll know I’m right and not those stupid RBIs which are luck based a lot of the time). I also see a minor league system that still sucks with no hope after this year and Bay, Freddy (with an option), Adam, and Jack all being free agents.

I definitely don’t see an offense that can hit with anyone. Just go look at some of the lineups around the majors and tell me how this offensive lineup even compares. here are some to look at: Phillies, Dodgers, Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers, Angels. And don’t come back and give Yinzer bullshit about how thy compare favorably to all those team s when they clearly don’t, maybe a couple, but sure as hell not all.

The Pirates would be sucking right now with no offense from Bay once again after the month of June and Doumit being injured so that makes the 4-9 spots with no offensive production. Freddy is also getting old and sure as hell would be average at best in the third spot (to think that the Pirates are a good offensive team with Freddy freaking Sanchez in the 3 hole is laughable). Nate McLouth profiles as a below average offensive right fielder and Andrew McCutchen is still a rookie.

Lastly, the pitchers would all havev worse numbers because of the atrocious defense in left and right field.

Do some research next time before you post ignorance and maybe I’ll give you some respect

Show me a guy whos afraid to look bad, and I'll show you a guy you can beat every time. -Lou Brock

by Green_Wave on Jul 31, 2009 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Also,

Gorzelanny has sucked for the last two years.

by joegonzo on Jul 31, 2009 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

We would have had....

a below average offense, defense, and pitching staff. We would have had no shot at the Wild Card.

by joegonzo on Jul 31, 2009 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oh, I forgot to add

you spelled Gorzelanny wrong. But at least you got McLouth, McCutchen, and LaRoche right so you got that going for ya.

Show me a guy whos afraid to look bad, and I'll show you a guy you can beat every time. -Lou Brock

by Green_Wave on Jul 31, 2009 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

c'mon buddy

do you realize this is the same lineup (with the exceptions of cutch and ohlendorf) that lost 94 games? how can you look at what you just posted and think that it would be possible for us to even be 3rd in our division right now. look at the brewers and astros lineups. this “dream” lineup you have here isnt even as good as those teams. delusional fuckin troll. im fed up.

by naynaynay1 on Jul 31, 2009 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think your arguement might be better accepted here

The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.

by glass0941 on Jul 31, 2009 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Urg

Damn link. Your point maybe better accepted <here/a>

The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.

by glass0941 on Jul 31, 2009 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

geez, if this is what you'll say

I dont know why thecheeseisblue bothered to get all those numbers out there!

I love also the fact that we can conveniently look into the crystal ball, say, “oh, we have 2 tradeable outfielders, Bay and Nady. Bay’s gonna be great next year, Nady injured. So let’s trade him for Ross Ohlendorf and Karstens, who will be 4-5 on our rotation in the winning team we are building for”! WOW!

What happens if someone is injured? Who comes up? Bixler/Walker? What about a rotation spot? Moskos/Morris (via trade)?

by BurgherKing on Jul 31, 2009 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Don't forget to add

knowing that the central would suck this year because that was absolute certainty to everyone last year according to the yinzers.

Show me a guy whos afraid to look bad, and I'll show you a guy you can beat every time. -Lou Brock

by Green_Wave on Aug 1, 2009 12:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

That team would lose 90 games without breaking a sweat.

This post got me fired up to the point where I finally registered just so I could formally agree with ryebr3ad and Green_Wave.

In addition to doing some research, stop believing that these guys were good just because you saw them play a few innings between showing up late (probably walking to your seat mid-inning) and watching fireworks.

by morpkingjoshh on Jul 31, 2009 8:36 PM EDT reply actions  

Welcome aboard sir

Show me a guy whos afraid to look bad, and I'll show you a guy you can beat every time. -Lou Brock

by Green_Wave on Jul 31, 2009 8:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

God fucking damn it

I was at a Mets game and the amount of people walking to their seats mid-inning made me actually speak up. I got some dirty looks, and they got the dirty bird.

by ryebr3ad on Jul 31, 2009 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

almost as bad

I went to a Bucs-Giants game a couple sundays ago and the lady behind me talked on her cell phone the entire 6th, 7th, and 8th innings. She was doing that whole “I’m right to the left of home plate under the runs on that little scoreboard…….can you see me? i’m waving right now……there’s a beer guy right next to me…..do you see me? where are you?”

by morpkingjoshh on Jul 31, 2009 9:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

If we would have built around…

bad (Adam LaRoche, Ian Snell, Tom Gorzelanny),

mediocre (Nate McLouth, Nyjer Morgan, Xavier Nady, Jack Wilson, John Grabow)

and old/injury prone (Jason Bay, Freddy Sanchez, Damaso Marte, Nady again, Jack Wilson again) players,

we would have had a mediocre to bad, old and injury prone team.

No secrets here.

by Gorkys n' Beans on Jul 31, 2009 8:40 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Ha...much better synopsis.

+1

Show me a guy whos afraid to look bad, and I'll show you a guy you can beat every time. -Lou Brock

by Green_Wave on Jul 31, 2009 8:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

I should put that little summary in my profile.

Or even better, cut and paste it into every troll thread.

by Gorkys n' Beans on Jul 31, 2009 9:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

I love you guys.

And I am a REAL WV Pirates fan.

by bucdaddy on Jul 31, 2009 9:44 PM EDT reply actions  

God

It’s good to know that I may work with yinzers all day long, but when I come home at night, there is still an oasis in the desert. Gorky’s, that may have made my day

The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.

by glass0941 on Jul 31, 2009 10:09 PM EDT reply actions  

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