An extension of the 2007 Pirates
by thecheeseisblue on Jul 31, 2009 8:38 PM EDT
17 comments
Trogluddite's recent post about the 2007 Pirates got me thinking about how many wins that team would get in terms of each players WAR today (or in the last season they pitched if they are currently retired). A replacement level team would get 48 wins. The WAR of each active player is multiplied by 1.6, since we are 101 games through the season.
Ronny Paulino = 0.8 WAR = 1.28 WAR/162
Adam LaRoche = 0.4 WAR = 0.64 WAR/162
Freddy Sanchez = 2.2 WAR = 3.52 WAR/162
Jack Wilson = 1.9 WAR = 3.04 WAR/162
Jose Bautista = 0.7 WAR = 1.12 WAR/162
Jason Bay = 1.7 WAR = 2.72 WAR/162
Nate McLouth = 2.1 WAR = 3.36 WAR/162
Xavier Nady (2008) = 4.0 WAR/162
Ian Snell = 0.6 WAR = 0.96 WAR/162
Tom Gorzelanny (2008) = -1.1 WAR/162
Paul Maholm = 2.5 WAR = 4 WAR/162
Zach Duke = 2.1 WAR = 3.36 WAR/162
Matt Morris (2008) = -0.4 WAR/160
Matt Capps = -0.6 WAR = -0.96 WAR/162
Shawn Chacon (2008) = -0.4 WAR/162
Salomon Torres (2008) = 0.4 WAR/162
John Grabow = 0 WAR
Damaso Marte = 1.2 WAR/162
So, overall, this would add 26.74, or about 27 wins to the 48 win replacement team. Meaning the Pirates would finish with 75 wins with this team, still under .500, and about to lose players to free agency.
Just for kicks I'm going to take the WAR of each player's career year with the Pirates.
Ronny Paulino = 2.6 WAR
Adam LaRoche = 2.5 WAR
Freddy Sanchez = 4.8 WAR
Jack Wilson = 4.3 WAR
Jose Bautista = 1.1 WAR
Jason Bay = 6.4 WAR
Nate McLouth = 3.6 WAR
Xavier Nady = 4 WAR
Ian Snell = 3.4 WAR
Tom Gorzelanny = 2.8 WAR
Paul Maholm = 2.7 WAR
Zach Duke = 3.3 WAR
Matt Morris = -0.4 WAR
Matt Capps = 1.6 WAR
Shawn Chacon = 0.2 WAR
Salomon Torres = 1.4 WAR
John Grabow = 0.5 WAR
Damaso Marte = 1.2 WAR
For a grand total of 46 WAR, or 94 wins, which would be enough to give them the NL wild card last year.
In conclusion, had the Pirates kept their players, based on the win values from Frangraphs, they would still be a below .500 time. And if they kept their players, and each had a career year, even though the odds are nearly impossible, they would still be a wild card team.
So in other words, yes, the Pirates have made the correct moves.
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Bear in mind bench players or free agent additions would add wins, but overall, the core of the team would just not be strong enough to make this team a legitimate contender.
by thecheeseisblue on Jul 31, 2009 8:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Oh I wish this would be posted on PBC Blog
But they probably wouldn’t know what WAR is or understand it if it was explained to them.
Show me a guy whos afraid to look bad, and I'll show you a guy you can beat every time. -Lou Brock
by Green_Wave on Jul 31, 2009 8:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I also love how
Matt Morris’ career year is still -.4
Show me a guy whos afraid to look bad, and I'll show you a guy you can beat every time. -Lou Brock
by Green_Wave on Jul 31, 2009 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well that’s career year with the pirates
by thecheeseisblue on Jul 31, 2009 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it wouldn’t be fair to use his career year when he was a different player than when we had him
by thecheeseisblue on Jul 31, 2009 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Matt Morris was at one point a pretty good pitcher. He just sucked by the time we had him. In fact, he sucked when we traded for him.
www.sixtyftsixin.com
by Sixty Feet, Six Inches on Jul 31, 2009 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That was more into response about that career high WAR
by ryebr3ad on Jul 31, 2009 11:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that’s why i said it wouldn’t be fair to use his actual career high, considering he was an entirely different player then
by thecheeseisblue on Aug 1, 2009 12:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rabble Rabble Rabble
The only statistic that matters is the millions of dollars Nutting is pocketing. Sell the team you sleaze!
"Everybody panic! If you have a small child, use it as a shield! They love tender meat."
by BattlinBucs on Jul 31, 2009 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
WAR? That’s not a statistic! But I’ve got a very strong opinion with absolutely no facts to back it up about that too!
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
by glass0941 on Jul 31, 2009 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
48 wins = Replacement team?
Coincidentally, the (non-laughinstock) Washington Nationals are on a pace to win exactly 48 games.
by maguro on Jul 31, 2009 10:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
This is funny
+1
Show me a guy whos afraid to look bad, and I'll show you a guy you can beat every time. -Lou Brock
by Green_Wave on Aug 1, 2009 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bay’s WAR (1.7) vs. Andy LaRoche’s (1.4) is interesting. We are only three tenths of a win worse this year without the declining, Old Man River Jason Bay. Moss vs. Jose Bautista is even this year at 0.7.
The fact that we are not worse without Jason Bay cannot be processed by the Yinzers.
Neither can the fact that we sent money to Seattle to get rid of Ian Snell and Wilson. It simply doesn’t compute.
by Gorkys n' Beans on Jul 31, 2009 10:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If you kept that 2007 team in 2010, it would lose 100 games. No problem.
by Gorkys n' Beans on Aug 1, 2009 4:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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