I Predict: The Pirates Sign Miguel Angel Sano
Jorge Arangure's Twitter has been interesting lately. He points out that the Twins seem to have spent their Sano money on other players, and that the Orioles view him as late first-round talent. He seems to be a higher priority for the Pirates since the Pirates took the initiative of testing his age early and that the Pirates seem to have gone cheap in this year's draft, as if they were waiting for something.
Anguire also believes that the Pirates won't have to pay a record signing bonus for Sano. He says that the bidding isn't so hot for the guy, possibly because the Chapman defection has diluted the market.
We know that the Twins have alleged irregularities in the documentation of his age, which may be the product of fever-dreams, or perhaps a bizarre conspiracy. The Pirates seem convinced based on a bone-graft test that he truly is sixteen years old. What good is a bone-graft test? No one seems to know.
So, what's Sano worth? I've searched these tubes high and low and the only actual hard data I can find on Sano is that he's a 6-foot-3, 190-pound teenager from San Pedro de Macrois in the Dominican Republic who plays shortstop. And then there's stuff like this:
"Right now the number one guy for me is Sano," said an international scouting director. "The bat, the swing he's got—I've never seen in a young kid that kind of swing. And he repeats it all the time. The ball leaves the bat the same way all the time, in BP and in the games, too. It's a special bat and a special body."
Sano has a plus arm, though his release isn't very quick. With his size he projects to move to third base or right field, but for teams that believe in his ability to hit in games, that isn't an issue.
Who is "an international scouting director?" Why should I believe some anonymous source? What exactly is a "special body?"
If anybody out there knows anything about this kid, I would love to hear about it. Or alternately, feel free to fill up the comments with idle speculation and strange personal fantasies. Either way works!
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45 comments
Comments
I'm not 100 percent on this
but from what I’ve heard, scouts don’t think he will be a SS in the majors.
by Green_Wave on Jul 6, 2009 10:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
he is expected to move to either 3rd or rightfield
by javanjbrown on Jul 6, 2009 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jesus walks on water.
Sano walks on air.
Really!
by bucdaddy on Jul 7, 2009 12:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
no no no
chad hermanson walks on water
by johnnycuff on Jul 7, 2009 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If the main competitor, the Orioles, only sees him as $1-1.5 mil talent, then this makes all the sense in the world for the Bucs from PR and talent perspectives.
The late round projection is interesting. The best I had heard was that Sano would have been the 3rd best player in this past draft. Huge variability is to be expected from a 16 year old kid.
To think I was excited about getting my drivers license at that age!
by Gorkys n' Beans on Jul 7, 2009 12:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The nature of Latin American baseball is that there won’t be much hard evidence. We’re basically watching these kids playing sandbox ball. There’s no real kind of statistical analysis to back it up – throw sabermetrics out the window right now. This is all about old-school scouting based on tools.
www.sixtyftsixin.com
by Sixty Feet, Six Inches on Jul 7, 2009 12:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
But Even That Seems To Be A Crapshoot
The quotes from scouts that I can find are all from unnamed, anonymous people. We don’t even know what organization they’re with. It’s just so hard to know anything about this kid.
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jul 7, 2009 2:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Scouts give info to Baseball America and other outlets but always with anonymity...
to protect themselves so that other teams will not know who they want to draft or sign. The only opinion that you will hear on record are your own scouting department.
by buccoben on Jul 7, 2009 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
Just take a look at the field he’s playing on in the background of that picture. That about sums it up.
by ILLZ on Jul 7, 2009 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
I get that he’s not playing organized baseball on any real level. But it still seems that if a team is gonna invest millions of dollars in him, they should have more to go on than some scout’s good gut feeling.
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jul 7, 2009 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But they don't.
Small market teams need to take risks. How well did NOT signing Latin American prospects work out for us?
www.sixtyftsixin.com
by Sixty Feet, Six Inches on Jul 7, 2009 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm All For Taking Risks
But how many of these players work out? There are good risks, and there are bad risks.
And FWIW, I think your logic is kind of faulty. How well did not signing Latin American prospects work out for us? Not too well, but you’re making an post hoc ergo propter hoc error.. I could just as easily say, “Are you rich and famous yet? Well, have you ever given me a handjob? There’s your problem right there.”
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jul 7, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m not saying that not signing Latin American talent is the only thing that caused us to suck. I’m just saying it didn’t exactly help.
As for “how many of these players work out?” Who cares? It’s not a risk if there’s no chance of failure. Safety = death for small market teams, and it seems like every move you advocate for the Pirates, you do with safety in mind.
Any bonus Sano would get would be large in relation to Latin American signings, but small in relation to just about anything else. It’s a low-risk, high-reward scenario. Where would you prefer the money go?
We gave Pedro Alvarez $6 million. How many draft picks – even first rounders – work out in MLB? Only 6% of draft picks make the Majors at any point in their career. That’s including even the players who make it ONCE as utility players or roster filler or what have you. The percentage of players that turn into every-day starters is even lower.
Does that mean we should also ignore the draft and revert to the Littlefield strategy of only signing and trading for veteran talent with proven track records – even if those track records are decidedly mediocre?
www.sixtyftsixin.com
by Sixty Feet, Six Inches on Jul 7, 2009 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm All For Signing All The Young Talent We Can Afford
I just wonder if blowing our wad on one largely unknown kid is worth it. Maybe it’s worth more to sign ten Latin kids at half a million each instead of one for 4 million.
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jul 7, 2009 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Weren’t you against the spread-the-wealth strategy in relation to the draft?
www.sixtyftsixin.com
by Sixty Feet, Six Inches on Jul 7, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I Think The Draft Might Be Different
Because those players are more known. They’re much less of a mystery.
But actually, I don’t remember being too strongly against that strategy in the draft anyway. If saving money in the draft to sign Sano works out in the end, I’ll be very happy about it. I just wonder if this is actually a good strategy or not. I don’t know, and I don’t see much to base an opinion on.
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jul 7, 2009 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They might be much less of a mystery in terms of body of their work, but that doesn’t mean they’re substantially less risky. Guys fail for any number of reasons. I don’t know if Sano is significantly more likely to be a bust than any other random position player you pick, but I get the feeling the consensus is his ceiling is higher than the vast majority of those guys, too. That seems like the kind of risk worth taking.
by CptnAwesome on Jul 7, 2009 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's A Very Interesting Point
I wonder if there’s a chart somewhere that shows how many Latin amateur signings make it to the big show compared to standard draftees.
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jul 7, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Boy, I hope you’re right, Jar Jimmy, but I can just see the Pirates finding a way to screw this up. But I’m holding out hope.
by mspirate on Jul 7, 2009 1:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
FWIW
I’m not sure if screwing up means signing him, or taking a pass on him.
I guess we’ll find out in about eight years!
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jul 7, 2009 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i've been following this guy since i saw this article in march
also, here is a great vid about him
When we hit you, you don't get up. When you hit us, we get up laughing.
by air holmes on Jul 7, 2009 8:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
http://www.globalpost.com/video/sports/090420/dominican-dreams-part-2-miguel-angel-sano
When we hit you, you don't get up. When you hit us, we get up laughing.
by air holmes on Jul 7, 2009 8:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Info in free area of BA
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2009/268496.html. Scroll down to 2nd question.
by buccoben on Jul 7, 2009 9:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The bone test can give you at least an approximate age...
…with a fairly high confidence interval. It won’t expose a fraud of six months, but it’d probably catch one of six years. And if the tools descriptions I’ve read are accurate, he’d still be a very good prospect even if he turned out to be 17 instead of 16.
by Vlad on Jul 7, 2009 9:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I've been operating under the assumption...
…that the bone test and the DNA test were two different things. The DNA would be to be certain that he’s the biological child of his “mother”, and the bone test would probably be a comparative examination of X-rays, to look for skeletal growth and development that typically occurs within various age ranges.
They use those kinds of techniques in forensic anthropology to determine the age-at-death of skeletal remains, anyway. I think that the technique would transfer, though this may be incorrect.
by Vlad on Jul 7, 2009 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you’re exactly right on this. I asked a few people about it and that’s the answer I got. Somewhere along the line, the two tests got crossed into one by baseball writers without an understanding of the technology involved. A bone-graft is probably a garbled term for bone density scan to determine developmental age and is usually very accurate within about a year and the DNA test is for identity purposes.
Before the Twins asked for the investigation, everyone seemed pretty certain that he was 16 and that there were no real age questions about him, so I don’t know that there’s a lot of worry in that regard.
http://www.whygavs.com
http://mlb.fanhouse.com
by whygavs on Jul 7, 2009 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And I should add that I didn’t mean to allege some kind of vast international conspiracy, just that if I were a GM interested in Sano and I thought that the most logical thing to do to drive down interest would be to start asking questions about his age.
http://www.whygavs.com
http://mlb.fanhouse.com
by whygavs on Jul 7, 2009 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
I was just having a little fun. I didn’t mean to imply that you’re the new TimeCube.
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jul 7, 2009 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The TimeCube guy is a good go-to guy for crazy theories, but I like Alex Chiu just as much if not more.
by CptnAwesome on Jul 7, 2009 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
doesnt matter
the pirates will keep him buried in the minors until he is 24, by then all the guys we are talking about now will be good and gone.
by rocket25 on Jul 7, 2009 9:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah!
Just like that McCutchen guy!
www.sixtyftsixin.com
by Sixty Feet, Six Inches on Jul 7, 2009 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're Talking About The Team That Promoted Pedro Alvarez Before He Learned To Not Strike Out Against A-Ball Pitchers
Please. If the Pirates farm-system has a problem, it’s not that they wait too long to promote players.
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jul 7, 2009 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
An "international scouting director"
Is just some other team’s Rene Gayo, would be my guess. Hell, since it’s a CBS Sports article and not the PG, it might be Gayo himself.
http://www.whygavs.com
http://mlb.fanhouse.com
by whygavs on Jul 7, 2009 10:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Interesting
So then you think that Gayo would be more likely to give a quote to CBS than to his own team’s paper? In order to obfuscate?
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jul 7, 2009 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Naw, I just meant that it could be anyone in his position with another team and since it’s a story that’s not directly about him, it could technically even be him. It’s probably not, but since it’s anonymous, who knows.
http://www.whygavs.com
http://mlb.fanhouse.com
by whygavs on Jul 7, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i hope they find out he is lying about his age, the older the better. if he is closer to 20 i would think his market would go even higher since he would be ready to play in the majors in a couple years
by PensRock1 on Jul 7, 2009 3:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
disagree
I think his value is related to his talent and ceiling in regards to his age(16)
by BuccoBrigade on Jul 7, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not at all.
The value of Latin American kids is that they’re raw, but can be signed younger than normal prospects. A raw-but-toolsy 16 year old is an asset. A raw-but-toolsy 20 year old isn’t as valuable.
www.sixtyftsixin.com
by Sixty Feet, Six Inches on Jul 8, 2009 12:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't think he is 16
Looking at the picture of him i would say closer to 19 maybe 18 not far off but still not quite 16
by WVPiratesfan on Jul 7, 2009 3:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The Forensic Evidence Seems To Disagree With You
Unless you can find something wrong with the tests that were performed, I’m gonna believe he’s really 16.
by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jul 7, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If we sign him,
let’s hope Sano is not short for Campusano.
by patthatt on Jul 7, 2009 3:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Regarding how we spend our money/spread it/etc.
I look it in the following manner.
Sano is obviously a great talent with a high ceiling. How great “great” is and if he reaches that ceiling is to be determined. Still, if you look at the draft class available past Strasburg and Ackley, it was slim pickings at best. The Orioles consider him late first round talent and it is possible the Pirates hold him in higher regards. If they do consider him a top 10 pick, then I think that can safely notch him in the 3 spot of this year’s draft. Now if we pay 4 million dollars, that is one thing, but if we can drop 2.5 million on “this years 3rd overall pick” and also add to our system with Sanchez and the plethora of young arms we are getting, I’m all for it.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 7, 2009 3:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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