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Around SBN: Jeff Sullivan's MLB Trade Deadline Primer

Pirates 6, Astros 3: Finally, Some Runs!

I expected the worst from this one after the Pirates didn't put a run on the board in either of the first two innings, but then Jack Wilson hit a two-run homer in the third. And even after the Bucs blew the game open with four runs in the seventh, I thought Joel Hanrahan or John Grabow might blow it after they each put on a bunch of baserunners. Ultimately, though, none of that happened. And there was also some less anxiety-inducing stuff here, two, like Garrett Jones' two stolen bases (which you can chalk up to getting good jumps), a spectacular play by Wilson deep in the hole, and a gap double by Andrew McCutchen.

A few notes:

Vazquez has too much value for Braves to move - FOX Sports on MSN
Ken Rosenthal reports that the Pirates are interested in Rockies 2B Eric Young, Jr. as a possible replacement for Freddy Sanchez, should Sanchez be traded. The Rockies aren't really in contention for the NL West race, but they are in the Wild Card picture, so they could conceivably be buying at the deadline. Young shouldn't be any more than a throw-in in any trade, though. He's already 24, and his nifty minor league OBPs and steal totals are offset by a lack of projectible power. Also, his current home park in Colorado Springs is great for hitters. He'd be a pretty fringy starting second baseman. Of course, all this would appear to be moot if the Pirates don't deal Sanchez.

Baseball Prospectus | Future Shock: Monday Ten Pack
Kevin Goldstein (subscription required) calls Rudy Owens "a very real prospect" and says he's ready for a promotion.

White Sox acquire reliever Tony Pena from Arizona | Hardball
The Diamondbacks have traded Tony Pena to the White Sox for minor league first baseman Brandon Allen. The Diamondbacks, who are 19 games out of first, are admitting here that their season is done. I actually thought they might be the one team that had the talent to compete with the Dodgers in the West, but the loss of Brandon Webb and the messes made by hitters like Eric Byrnes, Chris Young and Chad Tracy have done them in, even as Justin Upton, Mark Reynolds, Dan Haren, Doug Davis and Max Scherzer have all performed very well. Anyway, Allen is a hulk of a man and a reasonably well-rounded power hitter in the midst of a somewhat tough year; he'll probably recover his stroke in the extremely friendly hitting environment at Reno, where the D'Backs have their AAA affiliate. I love Pena's stuff, and he'll fit nicely into what was already a pretty good White Sox bullpen as they try to chase down the Tigers. Nice trade for both teams.

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I'm starting to believe...

the age investigation on Sano is only to drive down his price so that Latin American spending does not begin to get to out of control.

by joegonzo on Jul 8, 2009 3:03 AM EDT reply actions  

Due diligence

With all of the age fraud that’s already been caught (I happen to think there’s more), I think it’s mostly teams doing their homework before making a big offer. From what I’ve read, players like Sano are extremely raw and them being even a couple of years older doesn’t make them much more notable than a run of the mill draftee.

At the same time, the Twins’ statement about Sano’s conspiracy seemed conveniently leaked. Also, I think I care less than some others; if it seems like they can play, who cares how old they are?

by bigjpiot on Jul 8, 2009 4:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

Why Care About HIs Age?

Because someone who plays great for a 16-year-old is only mediocre or even bad for a 21 year old.

by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jul 8, 2009 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

Anyone remember Danny Almonte

mowing down 12 yr olds like Randy Johnson in the LLWS when he was actually 15? Now he’s somewhere in NAIA ball in Oklahoma or whatever.

by BadAndy on Jul 8, 2009 10:54 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

I Never Got The Point Of That

How good would it make you feel to dominate the competition, when you know the competition is 12 and you’re 16?

by Androgen Jar Jimmy on Jul 8, 2009 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

He's already 24 !!!

I didn’t realize that 24 was old !! By your thinking, their are allot of old guys in MLB !!

by baseballneedsasalarycap on Jul 8, 2009 4:49 AM EDT reply actions  

Covet?

Pirates “covet” Eric Young Jr? Maybe just a tad overstated here. Covet may be a word for someone like Chase Utley, not Eric Young Jr…

I figured the Sano age thing was just another bad break for the Bucs. Not that he is older, because we’ve done the bone graph thing, but that all other teams will be able to know who they got and did not get from LA and have more money than they thought they might, and thus are able to offer him more than they would have otherwise.

by God Loves on Jul 8, 2009 7:20 AM EDT reply actions  

Dana Eveland

Designated for assignment. Huntington is all over anything that throws in the nineties, even Gladys the pitching Mule if it can sit at 93-94. However, I bet he goes back to the Brewers, or another team that needs pitching. Interesting case though, he was good last year.

RIP NATE. RIP TONY PLUSH.

"I'D BE A CHEF"

-TONY PLUSH

by GTrain on Jul 8, 2009 10:17 AM EDT reply actions  

Charlie.....

Not sure what you meant by the comment relating to Jones’ stolen bases….“which you can chalk up to getting good jumps.” That is the case most of the time when a guy steals a base.

Not sure if you were disparaging his stolen bases, but getting good jumps is the sign of a good base runner who is able to read the pitcher and pick good spots. Sorry, if I misunderstood, but just seemed as if you were downplaying them, like they shouldn’t really count because he got good jumps. But maybe, being a bit higher on Jones than most, I am overly sensitive. :) . I do laugh when people look at his size and immediately assume he is “slow,” “heavy-footed,” and “lumbering.” He is anything but.

by dtoddwin on Jul 8, 2009 10:36 AM EDT reply actions  

From what I hear the main problem with his D is hi arm and I suppose his routes, although I’m just assuming if he’s fast that could be his problem.

Regarding jumps, Nate was the king of maximizing decent speed by picking the perfect pitches to run on and getting good jumps by picking the perfect time, hence the insane success rate

RIP NATE. RIP TONY PLUSH.

"I'D BE A CHEF"

-TONY PLUSH

by GTrain on Jul 8, 2009 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed

I read it the same way. Seemed like an odd point to make, whatever the motivation for making it.

by azibuck on Jul 8, 2009 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

He's saying that Jones steals because of technique...

…not because of Nyjer-type speed.

He’s trying to make the point that while he runs well for a guy of his size, Jones isn’t particularly fast by the standards of the total player population, which limits his potential upside in leg-related areas (i.e. defense and baserunning).

by Vlad on Jul 8, 2009 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not to put to fine a point on it, but right, that’s what I meant.

by Charlie on Jul 8, 2009 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

No Moss in the lineup today.....

Another start for Jones and DY. Guess you can’t be too pissed based on their production.

by vanslyke on Jul 8, 2009 1:00 PM EDT reply actions  

Only on the lack of strategic vision it displays.

Jones could be batting .900, and giving him a regular’s playing time would still be a stupid waste.

by Vlad on Jul 8, 2009 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

We discussed.....

this extensively in today’s game thread, so you can read it there. But, the gist being Jones turning 28 a few weeks back does not mean he is a terrible player. It also doesn’t mean he will be a terrible player in three years. Yes, it does mean he isn’t a prospect.

Jake Fox is one year younger and has put up a .920 OPS in his first 100 or so plate appearances in the ML with the Cubs. When does performance trump projectability? I don’t think there is a clear answer, but you can follow the discussion on the game thread if you like.

Not every guy gets it at 23 or 25 and not every guy hits his projected number. Jones’ K % has decreased from over 20 to around 15%. His last two years at AAA—yes reapeatable years at an advanced age—have been relatively productive. He doesn’t even have 100 career ML at bats. I’m not sure spending 200 at bats at this point in this particularly season is a stupid waste. I’d prefer to be sure what we have—or don’t have.

by dtoddwin on Jul 8, 2009 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Being 28 doesn't make Jones a terrible player.

Being 28 means that he has limited upside.

Having a very marginal minor league track record, on the other hand, DOES make him a terrible player. And since he has limited upside, he’ll probably never be any better than he is now.

Jake Fox is a laughable comparison. Fox is a little old for prospect-dom, but he has some very strong seasons on his minor-league resume, including a .957 OPS in the low-offense FSL in 2006 (as a catcher!). I wouldn’t have necessarily expected a huge breakout from him this year, but there were at least some signs that one was possible. Jones, in contrast, is textbook AAA filler. Outside of his 2004 in AA, he’s never hit like someone with a chance at being a legit ML contributor. Did he improve at AAA? Yes. I’d certainly hope that he did, given that he spent FIVE YEARS there…

by Vlad on Jul 8, 2009 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

And your point......

is what? Yes, he got better. Yes, he’s old. In his first limited at bats at the major league level he has performed better than some of the other players that he is competing with for playing time. Okay, and? He shouldn’t get anymore because his 200 at bats are going to stop Brandon Moss from developing?

And for the laughable Jake Fox comparison, if everything is so clear, why did he have 15 major league plate appearances as of May 15th this year?

I don’t disagree with your projection, I just ask again, when does performance or results trump projection? Seriously. 200 at bats, 400 at bats, 1000 at bats. What do you think?

by dtoddwin on Jul 9, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Jake Fox...

…got a limited amount of ML PA in part because his team was teaching him to play a different position because he couldn’t catch, and in part because he was blocked by better players on the ML level.

500 AB or so of .800+ OPS would probably be enough to move the needle from “suspect” to “potentially useful contributor” for me. Though if he gets anything near that kind of playing time, there’s a 99.9% chance that it’ll involve him sucking while stealing time from players who might have an actual future with us, so you’ll have to pardon me if I really hope that it doesn’t happen.

by Vlad on Jul 13, 2009 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Good point.....

Nobody has ever developed late. I was as much against playing Nyjer Morgan as anyone. And as it was pointed out by another poster, playing him for three months got us two relatively high upside players.

I’m a buyer of stats and projection, just stop telling me his numbers don’t count and you can tell the future.

by dtoddwin on Jul 9, 2009 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

The players who develop late...

…generally have something going for them: Exceptional athleticism that they figure out how to harness, a strong minor league track record, a high draft pedigree, etc.

Jones has none of that. He’s just a lump from AAAA, interchangable with all the other lumps. He lucked into some playing time in the middle of a pedestrian AAA season because we’re a crappy team and our manager gives ex-Twins extra chances, and he had a hot two weeks. Whoopee.

by Vlad on Jul 13, 2009 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

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