In Comparison: Because We Can

by geeves on Aug 10, 2009 1:34 AM EDT Comment 15 comments

Speculation is fun, and after watching another evening of highlights, I got to thinking...where do players like Russ Branyan and Mark Reynolds fit into the big scheme of useful roles for players?

Branyan apparently is what he is, a .250 avg/.850 OPS guy who strikes out two to three times more than he walks. Is his "traditional" line this year - 26 HR, 66 RBI after last night - simply the product of being provided everyday playing time? Is it sheer dumb luck?

What about a player like Reynolds - is his apparently Pujols-like power enough to offset his rampant strikeouts - is he simply the kind of three-true-outcomes player (ala Adam Dunn) that you live with as long as he's the only such player in your lineup?

Along with that, I can't help but wonder - perhaps Garrett Jones could be headed for a Branyan-esque existence? And is Pedro still a top-level prospect if he never fixes his K problems and winds up putting up numbers similar to Reynolds?

I know that's an awful lot of questions for one little fanpost, but I'm curious as to everyones thinking here, and I also am letting this one marinate in my noggin.

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Branyan was never going to bat .300 for the year as he did earler in the season, but he is settling into what we’d expect with the improved contact carrying over from 2008.

It’s hard to tell if Reynolds 2009 is sustainable. He’s seeing a lot of pitches in the zone, extremely high batting average on balls in play, huge HR/FB rate. But Reynolds does have massive power, and has always had high career BABIP.

I’d be thrilled if Alvarez hits in the Majors like Reynolds this year. He’d be a star and MVP candidate. Even if Alvarez hit like 2008-09 Branyan, he would be an above-average offensive force and middle of the order hitter.

Jones doesn’t really belong in that grouping, IMO. He’s more of a Chris Shelton where he could have one or two good years in the majors at best.

by Gorkys n' Beans on Aug 10, 2009 2:50 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Actually...

…Shelton has been a significantly better hitter than Jones throughout both of their careers. .315/.408/.510 for his minor league career as a whole, across 2,352 AB. Plus a .802 OPS in 930 ML AB.

He can probably be a league-average starting 1B right now, once you give him credit for defense. It’s only a matter of bad luck and bad timing that he hasn’t.

by Vlad on Aug 10, 2009 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i agree

with you on shelton, Vlad…and in that case, isn’t it even a tiny bit surprising that he cleared waivers this past week?

by geeves on Aug 10, 2009 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If I needed a 1B, I probably would've claimed him.

But breaking through as a 1B is tough. Since it’s such an easy position to play, relative to the others, your peer group of potential competitors is much higher than at 2B, or CF, or whatever.

An organization has to be pretty much a complete tear-down to not have at least a marginally viable 1B option somewhere.

by Vlad on Aug 10, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

comparisons.....

We would all love for an out-there Roy Hobbs player to suddenly appear; but Gorkys is probably right on with the coparison to Shelton. Duffy could also be put into this discussion. I would love to be wrong; and the Pirates got a Ray Hobbs without the tragic trauma, but it just won’t happen.

by lighthouse913 on Aug 10, 2009 3:06 AM EDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs

comparisons

I should point out that the Duffy comparison is due to the momentary feeling that many fans got about his being a better player than he actually was; not due to stat comparing.

by lighthouse913 on Aug 10, 2009 3:20 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

The best comparison that I’ve seen yet for Jones is still Brian Daubach, courtesy of Keith Law I think, and there’s really nothing wrong with having a Daubach around for 3 years or so while he’s at his peak. Especially since we generally all agree that we’re at least 3 years away from contention anyway.

Both Jones and Daubach got off to fairly terrible starts in their careers out of high school, developed some power as older minor leaguers but not enough to be labeled as legit prospects, and then hit like crazy a lot longer than anyone expected them to when they got to the show. Daubach cooled off a little over his next 3 seasons until he dropped off altogether but he was still a solid everyday player.

by MrPedriqueIfYoureNasty on Aug 10, 2009 7:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I Wonder

If you were calling the shots, how long would you give Pierce and how far would you go with Jones before you call off the experiment. When do you give a Clement a shot and where?

Jones deserves to play as he is still opsing around 1000. I really have my doubts about Pierce though, even given his HR yesterday. Do we owe him the rest of the year to see what we have, or do we already know?

Is NH going to play the “extra year” card on all his prospects (meaning call them up in June) or is he willing to start a season with them? My gut tells me that given our history of not drawing big crowds at the gate, the wise thing to do is what we are doing, that being wait until a prospect is obviously ready and waiting until we can get an extra year from them before bringing them up. But can he wait on all of them?

I see Pierce as an obvious place holder, Jones as an experiment. When do you make the call on DW? Is Cedeno a possible answer? Even if he plays as he has so far is he an option for next year? Obviously what we now are playing is a joke. Change now or have patience?

by God Loves on Aug 10, 2009 8:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Daubach is pretty much the best-case (realistic) scenario for Jones.

OPS a touch above .800, with below-average defense. That has some value, albeit maybe not as much as some people here would like/expect from him.

by Vlad on Aug 10, 2009 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Daubach was also a lot better in the minors than Jones has been.

by shayborg on Aug 10, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

True.

But compared to some of the truly ludicrous comparisons that have been trotted out (Ryan Ludwick, Carlos Pena, etc.), Daubach and Jones look like twins.

by Vlad on Aug 10, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He wasn't a lot better at all, he just had one insanely good year in AAA

Daubach minor league OPS – .778
Daubach minor league OPS less his 1998 where he OPSed 1.055 – .729
Jones minor league OPS – .763

Now you can’t just go around discounting someone’s entire season but thats not a lot better even including it.

by MrPedriqueIfYoureNasty on Aug 10, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Worth noting, to prove Vlad’s point

Ludwick OPS – .850
Pena OPS – .902

by MrPedriqueIfYoureNasty on Aug 10, 2009 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What Reynolds

do you think Alvarez is? Is his every year going to be around this year of Reynolds or would this year be an amazing year for Alvarez too? Until this year the most HR’s Reynolds hit were 28, and that was last year. He will probably finish with twenty more than he has ever hit before. His power showed itself as good, but not elite, at least until this year. Also worth noting in his minor league career he only had one year of a 25% or higher strike out ratio, so his extreme tendency to strikeout in the majors is a somewhat new trend.

He is only 25, so he could sustain this type of average/strikeouts/power through his peak years, in which I would love to have Alvarez play like him, although he will never steal close to the same number of bases.

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Aug 10, 2009 8:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

What Alvarez

The answer to Alvarez is….too early to tell.
At high A his K rate was 28%, way too high for a top college player.
At Altoona before the all star break, it was 37%. Unacceptable.
However, since the break at AA, he is at 22%. Pair that with the 1.056 OPS and it is totally acceptable. He is still learning how to hit LHP and no one hitting behind him does make a difference in the numbers. There is not a pitcher in the Eastern league that does not know Alvarez and pitch to him accordingly.
Give him a full season at one level prior to slotting him into a Reynolds twin.

by NHpiratefan on Aug 10, 2009 4:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs