Promote Pedro Alvarez already! This is getting ridiculous!
by mspirate on Aug 14, 2009 2:05 AM EDT
60 comments
Just like I thought he would, Pedro Alvarez is toying with those little Double-A kids, hitting .338 since joining the Altoona Curve and is 11 for his last 18 with his 3-for-4 performance on Thursday night. The strikeouts are also going down. Can the guy get a promotion already? Does he have to hit .400 for Altoona? Get the guy to Indianapolis already! 22 HR and 82 RBI for Alvarez in his first year of professional baseball with a month or so still to go. Not bad at all.
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Don't rush him
I would rather see him stay in the minors at a slower pace than be rushed and not maximize his potential.
by thecheeseisblue on Aug 14, 2009 2:14 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It would be rushing him if he were hitting .230 with a bunch of strikeouts at Altoona, and yet I was still saying, “Promote him no matter what.” That would be ignorant and selfish on my part. It’s not rushing him when he’s killing the ball and making Double-A pitching look like high school pitching.
by mspirate on Aug 14, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It flat-out doesn't matter
AA or AAA, what’s the difference. None of it is going to impact his ultimate promotion to the bigs (after “super 2” time next year).
by mak_DC on Aug 14, 2009 8:13 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
You’re right about that, and I know management has said that Pedro will stay in Double-A for the rest of the year. But surely, things should change when a player shows that he’s breezing through a certain level. I would like to see him promoted so that he could start next year with the big club rather than with Triple-A and then get called up two months or so after the season started.
by mspirate on Aug 14, 2009 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But there’s no reason to start him with the big club right out of spring training. If they wait until June 1 or so, they save a year on the arbitration clock. No reason to accelerate that clock for this team in ’10.
by mak_DC on Aug 14, 2009 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
THAT is why I figured they wouldn’t promote him to Triple-A right now. He can start next year in Triple-A and get called up later to avoid a year of arbitration, like you said. If that’s the case, then I’m fine with that. But talent wise, he should be Triple-A.
by mspirate on Aug 14, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They could still promote him to AAA.
If they promoted him to AAA right now, they could still put him in AAA to start the season next year, call him up mid-season, and his arbitration would be affected in just the same way as if he had played in AA for the rest of this season.
I’m sure there’s a reason he won’t get promoted this year. Maybe it has to do with small sample sizes and confidence. Say he goes up for the rest of this year and doesn’t do anything in the 3 1/2 weeks remaining on Indy’s schedule. Then he sees “oh no, I only hit .200.” and loses confidence. Instead he could look at AA and say “I dominated that. I’m ready to do the same to AAA, then the Majors.”
www.sixtyftsixin.com
by Nate Rose on Aug 14, 2009 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just assumed they weren’t sending Pedro to Indy because he was being c-blocked by Neil Walker.
"Baseball is better than football. Think about it, eighty degrees, a cold beer and a short-sleeve shirt is better than 30 degrees, a hip flask and six layers of clothes under a lap blanket. Take your pick: suntan or frostbite. " - Thomas Boswell
by Ketcham Bruce on Aug 14, 2009 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They have already clearly stated
that Pedro Alvarez is finishing the year in Altoona.
Find the article in the PG that announces Tabata’s promotion.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Aug 14, 2009 10:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
They also said
Nate Mclouth was someone to build around. Things change it just makes sense to have the best player in ur franchise on his team not riding a bus.
by bucsreport on Aug 14, 2009 10:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Also FWIW Alvarez is now hitting over .300 against lefties after last night.
by TravisDW on Aug 14, 2009 10:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The recent decrease in his K rate is encouraging.
I’d like to see him have a little more time to consolidate his gains, though.
by Vlad on Aug 14, 2009 10:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He’s not going to develop his power or BABIP at AAA more than he will at AA. The K’s, while down from 30%, have still been sitting around 25% during his tear. He’s improved, but I’d hardly say he’s dominating the pitching. Tabata, who is (probably) younger, had a K% around 10% at Altoona. That’s why he got promoted and Pedro didn’t. Alvarez can finish the year at Altoona and still have plenty to work on, start at Indy next year, and we’ll go from there.
charity standing orders
by BadMaafala on Aug 14, 2009 10:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Enough about the strikeouts. Yes, it’s good to see them decreasing, but who cares? The guy is hitting .338 with 22 bombs with all those strikeouts. He’s going to strikeout. That’s just part of it. People need to quit worrying about the K’s. Mark Reynolds strikes out a ton, but he has also hit 36 HR to go along with a great .284 average for someone one strikes out a lot. Supposedly, all Adam Dunn does is strike out or hit a bomb, but yet his average sits at a very respectable .282 to go along with 30 bombs. Does anybody care about their strikeouts (besides maybe themselves)? Doubt it. People, it’s time to get over the strikeout total for Alvarez. If he were still hitting .240, I would listen. But don’t sit here and talk about strikeout rates when the guy is hitting .338 for Altoona. Tabata might have only had a 10% strikeout rate, but Alvarez is killing him in HR, RBI and has a better average with Altoona (.338) than Tabata did (.303). Don’t get me wrong. A 10% strikeout rate is great, and Tabata obviously makes more contact than Alvarez does right now. Tabata is a great player in his own right. But the strikeout rant about Alvarez gets tiresome when he’s putting up the numbers he’s putting up right now.
by mspirate on Aug 14, 2009 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There's a big difference . .
between strikeout rates in the minors and those in the majors. In the majors, I could care less at what rate a hitter stikes out as long as his inability to put a ball i play does not hinder his overall effectiveness, such as not having a corresponding walk rate or line drive percentage sufficient to support a passable OBP%.
However, stikeout rates in the minors could be the manifestation of a serious fundamental problem which might be accentuated by better players as the player moves up the system. Or, if a player is getting struck out a ton by AA guys, isn’t it reasonable to think that he will strikeout significantly more by major league pitchers, to the extent that his other skills either won’t make up for it or will never even be a factor.
by Scranton on Aug 14, 2009 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Scranton is exactly right.
A high strikeout rate in the minors is generally problematic, in that it indicates a potentially exploitable weakness in a player’s profile. It’s not the K itself that’s problematic – it’s the K-as-leading-indicator.
Even successful MLB players who strike out a ton (like Dunn) are usually under 25% in the minors.
by Vlad on Aug 14, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Well, why has Pedro torn up Double-A pitching after struggling against Single-A pitching? I agree somewhat with what you said, but everybody also said it was crazy to promote Alvarez to Double-A because he was striking out a ton in Single-A to go along with a low batting average. Now look at him. Obviously, none of those struggles in Single-A have carried over, so there are exceptions. I just think people make way too much out of strikeouts totals, especially with Alvarez because I think the strikeouts are just part of what comes with the territory. He’s going to be a big power hitter that strikeouts, probably more so than you would like, but nothing alarming. It’s time people move on from the strikeouts. Also, he doesn’t even have the protection of Tabata in Double-A anymore, so what he’s doing right now is that much more impressive.
by mspirate on Aug 14, 2009 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Brad Eldred was hitting .279 in AA when he got promoted. He also struck out 25% of the time and hit a ton of bombs.
Alvarez is still the better hitter because he at least walks a good deal too, but you can’t just say “oh well he strikes out a lot.” If it’s in the Majors, yeah, it doesn’t matter that he strikes out a lot when he’s putting up a .338/.410/.575 line. But it’s not the Majors. It’s AA. To assume that he’d “only” strike out 25% of the time when facing better pitchers is fallacious.
For the record, Adam Dunn’s K-rate in AA was 18%. Mark Reynolds’ was around 30% during his first go-round in AA as well, so they kept him there until he lowered it to about 20%. See how they both saw more Ks as they moved up? That’s because all pitchers aren’t the same.
If Alvarez strikes out in MLB like Brad Eldred did, then, like Eldred, his other skills won’t show through because he won’t be able to put the bat on the ball enough.
www.sixtyftsixin.com
by Nate Rose on Aug 14, 2009 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So now you’re comparing Brad Eldred to Pedro Alvarez?
Sweet comparison.
.279 isn’t a comparison to .338.
by mspirate on Aug 14, 2009 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not comparing them. Alvarez is the much better player. But there IS a correlation with their strike out totals. Just saying, bad things happen when players who strike out too much are rushed.
Also, like someone else said, Alvarez has a BABIP around .400. That .338 average isn’t likely to last. .279 seems much more realistic for him, actually.
But hey, way to ignore the entire rest of my post. I guess you win this debate by virtue of not responding to any of the points I made! Go YOU!
www.sixtyftsixin.com
by Nate Rose on Aug 15, 2009 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Standard M.O. for this one.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Aug 15, 2009 5:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Eldred and Pedro are only moderately comparable.
Now, Pedro and Dallas McPherson, on the other hand…
McPherson was a college power standout and a top draft pick (2nd round, 2001). BA had him ranked as high as the #12 overall prospect in MLB (in 2005). He displayed excellent power in the minors, with 40 HR between AA and AAA in 2004, many of them moon shots. He batted above .300 at every level in every year until his first ML cup of coffee, save his first year of full-season ball, where he put up a still-respectable .277.
He was also a questionable defender, and consistently over the 25% K barrier. And now he’s a 27-year-old with a career line of .245/.298/.458 and a 27/126 BB/K in 371 ML AB, because he didn’t address the weaknesses in his profile, and their impact became more pronounced as he was promoted.
I hope that Pedro is able to fix the holes in his profile, and I’d love to see it happen, but his ascent to (and domination of) the majors isn’t some kind of fait accompli. If they want to give him a few extra months at AA to work on ironing out the bugs, I don’t see how that can be a bad thing.
by Vlad on Aug 15, 2009 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
IIRC...
McPherson HAS had to deal with a lot of injury issues. That may also have contributed to his lack of success.
Hip surgery in August 2005 and then back surgery wiped out all of his 2007 season. And he’s had back surgery again this summer.
So…while his numbers aren’t what was expected…I’d say that there were extenuating circumstances for McPherson…and probably not a good comparison for anyone.
by Thunder on Aug 15, 2009 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
'protection' is the worst baseball term next to 'runs batted in'.
It doesn’t exist.
by ryebr3ad on Aug 14, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
At least RBIs are a tangible metric
How do you measure the impact of protection? The same way we measure errors, by someone’s opinion
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
by glass0941 on Aug 14, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think there are metrics for the thickness of the protection.
charity standing orders
by BadMaafala on Aug 14, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So you’re saying that if you have two lineups – one with Ken Griffey Jr. in his prime followed by Barry Bonds in his prime, and one with Ken Griffey Jr. in his prime followed by, say…Brian Bixler, Griffey isn’t going to see more pitches to hit in the first lineup?
www.sixtyftsixin.com
by Nate Rose on Aug 14, 2009 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly. What are ya’ll talkin’ about, glass0941 and ryebr3ad?
Do ya’ll know the game of baseball?
by mspirate on Aug 14, 2009 11:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
General point remains.
Having a better batter behind you results in seeing more pitches to hit. Look at how often Jason Bay was intentionally walked here. Look at how often Bonds was intentionally walked in San Francisco. In Bonds’ case, the intentional walks probably would have happened no matter what because nobody was as good of a hitter as him, but for a run-of-the-mill good hitter like Bay, having someone that can hit well behind you helps.
Is it a significant statistical measure? No. But it DOES have an effect.
www.sixtyftsixin.com
by Nate Rose on Aug 15, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You are correct that almost all power hitters strike out at least a little bit.
But the difference between 20% K and 25-30% K in the minors is often the difference between a .400-ish OBP ceiling and a .350-ish OBP ceiling. Guys with persistent contact issues almost never put up truly elite OBPs, because they just can’t keep the BA high enough for even an above-average walk rate to do the trick.
There’s nothing wrong with having Preson Wilson’s career, but all other things being equal, you’d rather have Griffey’s, right?
by Vlad on Aug 14, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I understand that. It just seems like people on here make an effort to look past Alvarez’s good numbers to dig and find anything negative about him that they can. I mean, instead of saying " Pedro is hitting for average and showing the great power that made him one of the top overall draft picks two years ago", people want to say, “Yeah, but he had a strikeout tonight” or “He’s got two K’s tonight”. The guy can’t win for losing.
by mspirate on Aug 14, 2009 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll acknowledge those things all day.
Yeah, good for Pedro. And I’ll say this, too. The Ks are trending downward and the BB are trending upward. That’s encouraging.
However, it’s still not a reason to promote him for 3 1/2 weeks of games. Let him spend the rest of this season refining his plate approach, then put him against some real pitchers next year. If that trend of less Ks and more BB continues (or even if he keeps it around 20-25% K,) promote him.
All we’re saying is that your premise of 25% K in AA = 25% K in the Majors is faulty. There’s something wrong when your top prospect is missing too many pitches from AA level kids.
www.sixtyftsixin.com
by Nate Rose on Aug 15, 2009 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes yes . . .
all objective analysis should be abandoned in the name of hope
by Scranton on Aug 15, 2009 1:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If he weren't doing so many things right...
…there’s no way I’d even bother to spend time analyzing him.
I didn’t spend time that I could’ve been out drinking or shooting pool trying to break down the flaws of Brad Corley’s profile, y’know?
by Vlad on Aug 15, 2009 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
K's, power, and BABIP
Tabata may develop power or he may not, but it’ll happen whether he’s in AA or AAA. The one thing we know from the K% and K:B ratio is that his approach at the plate is very well developed, and he doesn’t have anything left to prove there at Altoona.
Pedro can still improve his baseball skills at Altoona by improving his approach at the plate, which he has shown signs of doing in the last couple of games. K’s are the most tangible thing that a player has control over. He has some control over the types of balls he hits, but little control of whether a line drive goes directly to a fielder, or whether every flyball he hits happens to drop for a single or double. He was probably getting a little unlucky along these lines in Lynchburg, but right now, just about every ball he makes contact with is going for a base hit, and it’s not all HR’s either. His numbers are going to drop off a little, even as he gets better.
charity standing orders
by BadMaafala on Aug 14, 2009 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why Promote Him Now?
I think it’s way better to have him finish at AA on a torrid pace than to go to AAA for a couple weeks. Not only does this approach build his confidence, it allows him to enter next season embracing that progress and strides that he made to reduce his K rate, albeit comparatively small.
by tjc on Aug 14, 2009 11:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Nothing Positive
could come out of promoting him now. If he slumps in the last two weeks of AA, he still is left with a great year.
If he slump for two weeks at AAA, he can’t hit advanced pitching and many question marks appear going into the off-season.
Staying at Altoona is the smart play with an off-season ahead where he is full of promise.
by NHpiratefan on Aug 14, 2009 1:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If Double-A is inferior competition for him, he needs to be promoted. It’s called player development.
by mspirate on Aug 14, 2009 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Inferior" is a strong word to use
Its not like he’s hitting .450 with a HR every fifth AB. He’s putting up strong numbers, not ridiculous ones that we would see if we put him in the GCL. That being said, it means there is no rush in promoting him, especially with the arbitration clock issue.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Aug 14, 2009 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think management can be fairly accused of slow-rolling Alvarez. Seems like it was just yesterday that we were all wondering what he did to deserve his promotion to AA.
It can’t be stated often enough that we can’t have this guy “developing his game” in the majors with his free agent/arbitration clock rolling. It was a terrible mistake to rush Guillen and Ramirez to the majors and they shouldn’t repeat that mistake with Pedro.
by maguro on Aug 14, 2009 2:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The Pirates want Alvarez to dominate his competition. It will be best to let him keep knocking around AA competition the rest of this year and start him at AAA next year. Send him to AAA now and he struggles, he will lose a lot of that confidence. So, why risk it?
by Brakeman8 on Aug 14, 2009 3:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
An unsustainable .418 BABIP might have something to do with not wanting to rush the kid, over-reacting to a small sample size hot streak.
Still the loving, adoptive father of Hector Sanchez. And who doesn't love switch-hitting catchers with power and patience?
by tedfordfan on Aug 14, 2009 8:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Pedro
2 for 3 tonight with his 9th HR and a walk. He is on quite a roll.
by maguro on Aug 14, 2009 9:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
To use your own words,
chill.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Aug 14, 2009 10:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yes.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Aug 15, 2009 5:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pedro went 3-for-3 tonight with a bomb. .350 and rising….
He may reach .450 after all, McCutchenisTheTruth…haha
by mspirate on Aug 14, 2009 11:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Call me when he does
Then I’ll cry for his promotion this year as well.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Aug 15, 2009 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Alvarez is still striking out more than Chris Davis did last year at the same age in higher levels. And Davis had serious contact issues in the majors this year. The play in AAA has been extremely encouraging, but there is no need to rush him even if it takes all of 2010 in the minors to improve.
by Gorkys n' Beans on Aug 15, 2009 12:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
re:
First off, I’ll say I agree with whoever says to keep him in AA. He’s built a ton of confidence so far in AA, and I’d let him continue that for the next month or so as the season ends. While he is decreasing his K’s, he can always try to improve that skill at his current level. Thus when he be better prepared for AAA/MLB next year, nothing good comes from pushing a guy before you know he is really ready, and unless you leave a guy to stagnate in the minors (aka Wood) it doesn’t hurt to leave him there for a bit longer.
That said Davis is a bad example cause his plate discipline and recognition wasn’t very good. While Pedro does K he walks quite a bit more than Davis ever did. Also their K/PA was pretty close and Pedro keeps improving that area.
by hybrid on Aug 15, 2009 7:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
mspirate
Why do you care where Alvarez spends the next 2-3 weeks? I mean seriously, what possible difference can it make in your life? And why should they listen to you? Does it occur to you they have their own reasons, reasons you’re not privy to, for keeping him where he is? Do you think you’re better qualified than everyone from the Altoona manager (part of whose job it is to file reports on his players every night) up to the team president to say where Alvarez should be playing?
Just curious what qualifies you to make such decisions for the team.
by bucdaddy on Aug 15, 2009 10:03 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It doesn’t matter. It’s just a strong opinion on my part. I know there are reasons they are keeping him in Double-A and you’re right, I have no idea what those reasons are. Like I said, this is a stong opinion on my part. When a guy dominates his current level (like Alvarez is doing) and shows management and player development that he has improved what he needed to work on (with Pedro, that would be strikeouts), then a player is usually promoted. His K rate has dropped and he is pounding the ball. The Pirates might have said that he will finish the year in Double-A (and I don’t have a problem with that), but things change. They probably didn’t think Pedro would show this much improvement this quickly, but then again, maybe they went into saying, “No matter how good or bad he does, he will stay at Double-A the rest of the season.” I don’t know. But I don’t think it’s very good player development to keep a guy at a certain level if he is dominating the competition amd showing you that he is improving on his weaknesses. I definitely think he should be promoted, but if he stays at Double-A all year, then fine. Not a whole lot I can do about it.
by mspirate on Aug 15, 2009 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good. That's a little more reasonable.
Also, I’d guess Alvarez will play winter ball somewhere in an effort to keep his skills sharp. Depending on where he goes, would that be something of a promotion? People who are more knowledgeable about the winter leagues than I am (that would be most of you) can inform.
by bucdaddy on Aug 15, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fall and/or winter ball isn't really a promotion.
But it still may be in the cards for Alvarez. Those are usually the leagues players are assigned to to work on issues of their game before they reach the Majors. The idea is that the stats don’t matter, so the pressure is kind of off. Instead, just work on doing X. Pedro would probably be assigned there to work on striking out less. Delwyn Young is almost a lock to be sent there to work on his defense at second.
www.sixtyftsixin.com
by Nate Rose on Aug 15, 2009 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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