Daniel McCutchen: It's Time
by Charlie Wilmoth on Aug 16, 2009 5:19 PM EDT
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PrintThe Pirates' recent flurry of roster moves (Jose Ascanio has been sent to the DL, Jeff Salazar has been designated for assignment, and Brian Bixler and Denny Bautista have been recalled from Indianapolis) demonstrate that the Bucs badly need relief help right now. There's no indication that Bautista is a legitimate answer; he has a track record of repeated failure in the major leagues, and nothing he's done this year suggests that this time up will be any different. He struck out more than a batter an inning at Indianapolis, true, but he also has walked 34 batters in 48 innings to go along with a 4.88 ERA. He'll also be 29 next week. Even as a placeholder on a floundering team, he's an uninspired choice.
So why not give Dan McCutchen a spot in the 'pen? McCutchen has had an interesting season as a starter for Indianapolis, posting a 3.40 ERA to go with 99 strikeouts in 129.7 innings. More importantly, he's improved to the point of being nearly unhittable over the course of the season--he posted ERAs of 3.74, 4.82 and 4.50 in April, May and June, respectively, but he had a 2.10 ERA in July and now has a 1.35 ERA in August. He has also struck out 36 batters in July and August while walking only four.
There isn't really a rotation spot available for McCutchen right now, but the bullpen is a different story. McCutchen will be 27 in September, so there's no good reason to hold him back if he can be better than one or more of the Pirates' current relievers. That is, his upside as a starter isn't so great to worry about using him as a reliever, and he's not so young that the Pirates should be concerned about service time issues. And it isn't as if the Bucs should be thrilled about their current bullpen.
McCutchen still has flaws--his strikeout rate is still a bit low, and he still allows tons of fly balls. (Of course, Bautista allows tons of flies too.) But the bullpen is, ideally, where flawed pitchers should go, because short outings can mask flaws. If an opportunity presents itself later, the Pirates could still move McCutchen back to the rotation, or use him as a spot starter, but why not give him a shot as a reliever now, while there's opportunity?
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Does anybody know
how hard he is tossing. I read somewhere earlier in the season that a scout, from another organization had said he lost some velocity. I agree he has to be a better option in the pen than bautista
I was at McCutchen’s start last Monday and he was consistently between 89-92 and hit as high as 95.
I am a huge advocate of calling him up. He looked very impressive.
by northsidenotch on Aug 16, 2009 5:59 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
with the recent bullpen and pitching moves
and coupled with the way JR ices batters that have good days it seems like the ex-showgirl wife of Donald Phelps (NH & Co) want them to finish dead last. are they going to relocate to Miami (probably of OH) or are the actively trying to get the number 1 pick.
The ball just got bigger and bigger and then BAM it hit me.
Agreed
Unless McCutchen turns some sort of corner, I don’t see him as a full-time starter on a contending Pirates team – as was mentioned on the game/rain delay thread, even Ohlie should be marginal come 2012. Regardless, it’s not as if throwing him in the bullpen for the next 7 weeks defines his future.
I know that bullpen guys have less value, but McCutchen isn’t getting a chance to be an ML starter anytime soon (barring injury). May as well see if the guy shines in the bullpen. It’s certainly a good move if they really do want to win any more games this year.
What makes you think Ohlie will be marginal?
For all the pitching depth we’ve amassed, we haven’t exactly gotten a future ace. Brad Lincoln might be one, Charlie Morton might be one. Both would be below average as staff aces, though. (Not to say they aren’t both good pitchers, but more #2 than ace.) Behind them, we’ve got a bunch of 3rd starters.
Unless we pick up an ace in the draft next year and have the luck of them actually panning out, (really, with the Pirates’ pitcher draft history, it almost HAS to happen soon. Law of averages. They can’t all blow their arms out.) there’s no reason to think we have a big wave of talent coming that’s sure to push Ohlendorf from the rotation. Maybe give him a competition, but no locks IMO.
www.sixtyftsixin.com
I meant marginal literally
As in, at the margins – Ohlie should be no more than a 4 or 5 pitcher, which means that the next good pitcher pushes him out. Obviously, he may improve – master the slider while maintaining a 95 speedball – but as he appears now (and as he’s been projected), he’s a marginal guy. The 2012 Pirates won’t have enough offense to be able to get away with 3 #5 pitchers.
Anyway, my main point was that McCutchen looks to be a step worse than Ohlie, and there shouldn’t be that much room between Ohlie and the last pitcher in Pittsburgh – if McCutchen is our #5 starter in 2012, and he hasn’t taken a big step forward (eg, cut down on walks), then that’s not a great team.
I'd take my chances
with a bunch of No. 3 starters. Seriously, it’s not like average MLB pitchers are lined up outside the gates. I kinda believe (with no actual research to back it up) that more teams get killed by having an awful starter or starters in the No. 4-5 hole than by not having an “ace.” How many true aces can you name, and what are the chances of us ending up with one?
My theory too
I’d love to see a systematic examination of how staffs break down. I certainly agree that a team is hurt more by a disastrous #5 starter than helped by a stud #1 (even a great #1 is going to lose a fair number of games, whereas a #5 like JVB or Morris or Herrera is very close to a guaranteed loss every time out). 5 #3s would I think get you to the playoffs most years (assuming a decent offense); you’d be in trouble come the postseason, though.
In terms of payroll, I expect a team would be happiest with a couple reliable, non-flashy #2s and 4 #4s (including a spare at AAA). Aces cost way too much, whereas a #2 guy – Duke, more or less – can be had for much less.
My thing is that I don’t see Ohlie or McCutch as #3s – marginal #4s at best.
There are
Some articles that have discussed this, and you are essentially correct that a really horrendous five starter hurts a team, in that, if he is not able to go any innings it destroys your bullpen and costs you in the long run. All you really need from a five starter for him to be considered effective is to be healthy and eat innings, even if they aren’t great innings.
If it was only up to us....
He would and should be up here, NH and Frank are not fans of calling up guys for september, we can only hope, they have repeatedly said it soo many times, screw it the seasons over time to bring him up let him get a taste of the majors and bring the fans to see the new talent!
Yes
It doesn’t appear Indy is in a playoff race, 7.5 games out of an IL wild card spot.
I just checked, because sometimes we forget that the fans in places like Indy and Altoona deserve to see the team they support get a playoff berth and a chance to win a championship, just like the fans in Pittsburgh do..
Altoona is dead last in its division, however.
I understand your point but I don’t think the front office should make their decisions with the Indy fans in mind.
I made most of my life decisions at a Foghat concert... I stand by them.
by Chester J Lampwick on Aug 16, 2009 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Don't worry
They don’t. It’s the furthest thing from their mind. Terribly unfair for the fans in Indy, Altoona, etc., but that’s the way the system is set up.
I see YOUR point.
I should have added, as long as the MLB team is going nowhere anyway, and you don’t need your AA and AAA stars for a pennant push, why not let the people who buy tickets for your affiliates enjoy them? Kind of like, if Indy were in the playoffs those guys might not be added to the expanded MLB roster until the playoffs are over.
I don't see it
Why bring him up? He is not a major factor in the future of the Pirates. If they bring him up now, someone has to take those innings at Indy. He could throw 25-30 more innings at Indy before their season is over while only throwing 7-10 for the Pirates. Why extend younger starters or prospects when he can take those innings and possibly get a few starts in September, if needed.
Unless they would move Herrera into his slot at Indy (based on wins and nothing else) I see no reason to have younger guys have to eat more innings.
I think
we bring him (McCutchen) up and let him start so that we can see what he has. Come on guys, it’s not like Maholm and Morton have been performing to future Cy Young candidates. And, if we go to a six man rotation, with Ascanio on the DL w/shoulder tendonitis, who deserves to be #6 more than Daniel?
I think you guys are missing the point.
Bautista wasn’t called up because of his AAA performance. He was called up because we totally shredded the bullpen during Morton’s last start, and we needed to have a guy who could eat multiple innings if we had another blowup over the next couple of days. Bautista hadn’t pitched in a while, so he got the call by virtue of being the freshest available option.
I suspect that he’ll have beenreplaced by someone else by the end of the week.
by Vlad on Aug 17, 2009 7:59 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
In fact...
…I’m pretty sure I read somewhere that Bautista is only up until Dumatrait finishes his rehab assignment, which should happen very soon.
by Vlad on Aug 17, 2009 8:01 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Are "multiple innings"
more plural than “innings”?
Sorry, pet peeve.
Multiple innings...
…is meant to convey the ability of the pitcher handling more than one inning per appearance, like a long reliever or swing man. A guy who’s just up to burn “innings” could also be doing it in several one-inning stints across the week.
So even though it seems redundant, there’s some value conveyed by using the expression.
by Vlad on Aug 17, 2009 12:09 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I imagine it conveys the point that two innings thrown by Denny Bautista will seem like six innings.
by WTM on Aug 17, 2009 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Wrong
We only used 2 relievers that game. Jackson and Bootcheck. Having 2 RPs unavailable for a game is pretty standard. And yes Dumatrait is going to replace Bautista soon but Cutch surely deserves a look over mr. 28 era bouncedcheck
Two relievers, yes...
…but they were our only available long men. If we’d had something bad happen on the 15th, we would’ve had to churn through the setup guys.
off topic
But what are the ramifications if none of the top 3 draftees sign? Does the bloating of the top of the draft play into Boras’ hand? Boras does such a disservice to the game.
Surely it would not help the Bucs. On the other hand, I’m not sure that it makes sense for us to be drafting Bryce Harper types.
Just thinking aloud.
Good day.
It's not going to happen.
So it’s kind of a moot question. I could see Tate not signing, because he’s also a big-time football guy, but that’s not really on Boras’s head if it happens.
as you say, it wouldnt happen
but i m curious to see what the huge bonus for strasburg will do… will it make owners push for a slotting system? if they do, what will the players’ union’s response be? an nhl-type lockout?
the drama around strasburg is incredible- $20 m seems to be the most recently quoted figure, and if it turns out that that wasnt enough, wow! personally, i m surprised the nats went as high as $20m, and i m curious as to whether people here think the pirates should have gone that high, if they had happened to draft strasburg.
by BurgherKing on Aug 17, 2009 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Latest rumor has the Nats offer at $12.5M
Which sounds about right to me. It’s certainly not an insult, but there’s no reason to offer him any more if the alternative is going back into the draft next year and being drafted by the Pirates or KC or somebody. Which it is – all the Japan talk is just hot air.
My guess is that he signs for $12.5M or thereabouts…he would be exceedingly foolish to turn it down and I don’t think he will.
as long as he doesn't sully the mccutchen name
you don’t want clown fans and writers to get confused about Cutch (i’m only half-joking)
Why not bring him up? The Pirates need answers on the guys that are moving up in age, and D-Mc is one of them. To say that he “isn’t this, and isn’t that” is silly. They have brought up guys before that have serious missing parts to their game. To say to keep him down to be an “innings eater” and save the youngsters arms puts a very bad rap on McCutchen…akin to giving up on him. I wouldn’t worry about anyone confusing Dan with Cutch. Its not like he’s a Jones or Smith. He only passes through center field on his way from the pen to the mound.
The Pirates have nothing to lose for the insight to be gained. Bring him up September One!
by hermitage hero on Aug 17, 2009 10:55 AM EDT reply actions
Why not....
replace Charlie Morton in the rotation right now with McCutchen? Morton can go to the pen.
So, one bad start and we're down on Morton now?
The guy has the best pure stuff on the team and way more upside than McCutchen. I think Morton stays where he is at. I don’t have a problem though with bringing up DCutch and putting him in the pen.
Overreact much?
I Agree w/hav
Put him in the starting rotation. Doesn’t have to replace anyone, just add a sixth starter.
Criticize much?
Sorry, Man
I’m too old to watch that show & have no idea what that degrading remark is supposed to mean…
No Gilmore Girls fan...
but I’m pretty sure he’s making fun of our use of the word “much” at the end of the sentence. My fault, I started the snarkiness. Again, I’m not disagreeing with you our Hav in the respect that DCutch deserves a shot somewhere if not as a starter. I just don’t think it’s necessary for us to relegate Morton to reliever status just yet.
Yeah sorry
It just sounds like something a talky 14 year old girl would say to me.
charity standing orders
No I don't...
but what is the argument for removing Morton from the rotation? He had one really bad game that I’m sure he’d like to forget but that doesn’t change the fact that he has the most upside of any starter on the team. I don’t disagree with the idea of a 6 man and I was hoping they would with Ascanio being the 6th starter. Since he’s on the DL I don’t have a problem with DCutch getting some starts either.
The only reasonable argument for pulling him...
…would be in order to limit his innings. Which, since the Cube stats were apparently double-counting, doesn’t seem necessary to me right now.
Stop...
with the silliness. Watch a game. Morton is the most likely guy above AA to develop into a front-of-the-rotation starter.
What's the worst that could happen....
starting McCutchen now? The Pirates might finish last? Seriously though,if Morton has the best stuff among Pirate starters,the rotation is in worse shape than it seems.
McCutchen has been pretty much lights-out for almost 2 months in AAA now…..Seems it’s high time to find out if that will transfer(at least mostly) to the bigs,and if he’s a viable rotation starter.
Have you actually watched any games...
or are you just looking at box scores? I’m not being a smart ass but if you watch Morton pitch and come to the conclusion that he does not have terrific “stuff” then…well…I guess I don’t have anything more to discuss with you. Who in you opinion has better pure stuff on the team in your opinion?
Morton....
Don’t confuse “stuff” with being a good pitcher. Command, location, knowing how to pitch are all pieces of the puzzle. Having great stuff means you have a better chance to be Roy Halladay. If you don’t your ceiling is more likely Doug Davis, Jamie Moyer, Zach Duke, etc.
M-C
You all know what this means, the “Mc” Effect becomes stronger! Check out the blog!
http://eatsleepmlb.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/08/a_new_mc_in_town.html
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