Pirates' Q+A Portion of Season Continues
Neal Huntington's life has to be pretty painful right now for all kinds of reasons--just walking through the streets of Pittsburgh must be difficult. But in some ways, it's a baseball dork's dream.
Some of the hardest of the hardcore Bucs Dugout baseball dorks play in a fantasy league each year that has 18-20 teams, with many more spots per roster than most fantasy leagues have. The number of players drafted is about twice that of the standard 12-team fantasy league. Which is great, because you get to indulge your weirdest flights of fancy in the draft. In the late rounds this year, I picked Matt Joyce, Homer Bailey, Brandon Moss and, much more successfully, Russell Branyan (who I also wanted the real-life Pirates to sign in the offseason). But the size of the league quickly becomes a problem in the middle of the season, when a couple of your players go down and you're forced to find new ones in the free agent pool. The problem isn't finding a guy who's talented, it's finding a guy who's actually going to play.
What the Pirates are doing with their big-league roster right now is like managing a team in a very deep fantasy league, except that they also can hand out playing time. So it's a sort of experimental method that, in the short term, is aimed more at answering questions than getting results. Can Delwyn Young play second base? (Kind of.) Can Ronny Cedeno hit enough to stick as a starter at shortstop? (Maybe.) Can Garrett Jones play? (No comment, although he's certainly done little to prove me right so far.) Can Andy LaRoche develop any power? Can Charlie Morton finally translate his ability to mow down minor leaguers to the big leagues? And what about Lastings Milledge? Or Steve Pearce? Or Kevin Hart?
This Q+A-based approach to handing out playing time often produces painful results; after all, there are reasons why a lot of these guys never got extended shots before now. But, in a way, these August and September games are more fun for me to watch than April or May games, because in August or September there's often much more value in getting a "yes" answer. If Jack Wilson has a good week in April that's great, but the only long-term upside there is that the Pirates get something better for him in a trade, and even then that's often wishful thinking, since everyone basically knows what Jack Wilson brings to the table. If Delwyn Young has a good week, though, that's much better, because you don't know nearly as much about what he brings to the table, and if it turns out to be something tasty, you get to keep him for five years.
The only Bucs rookie who's even close to a sure thing is Andrew McCutchen. Many of the others, perhaps most, will ultimately fail. The best of the Pirates' young talent is still in the minors. But the Pirates are still well worth watching this fall, because if a surprising number of their youngest players are successful, they could end up being in great shape if and when Pedro Alvarez, Tony Sanchez, Jose Tabata, Tim Alderson and some of their other top prospects are finally ready.
That's why--and not to count chickens before they hatch here, but I have to leave a little before tonight's game is actually over--it's been really rewarding to see the Pirates in general, and guys like Cedeno and Milledge in particular, do good things in this series. It may almost be football season, but these Bucs are still pretty interesting to me.
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Comments
Kind of off-topic, but Tim Alderson hit a home run tonight for Altoona.
by Suffering Buc on Aug 19, 2009 10:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Lincoln and Alderson
would be viable options for the bench on days they don’t pitch………….in 2011
by BadAndy on Aug 20, 2009 8:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Saw Lincoln last night
And he handles the bat extremely well. Went 2 for 3 with an RBI single. His AVG is up to .571 for Indy (granted, extremely small sample size).
They didn’t even lift him for a PH in the top of the 6th even though he didn’t come out for the bottom half.
by northsidenotch on Aug 20, 2009 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Coming out of college...
…he was graded as a 2nd/3rd round talent as an OF.
by Vlad on Aug 20, 2009 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
During the Future Game this year
Peter Gammons also said that Lincoln was by-far the best hitter on his Cape Cod League team.
by northsidenotch on Aug 20, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Definitely. McCutchen, Morgan, and Jones have played a monster role in vaulting my fantasy team to first place. My stat nerd favorites including Cody Ross and Ubaldo Jimenez have come up big as well. Lastings is at least on the bench for now.
The real Pirates are doing quite fine as well. The performances of Young, Cedeno, and Jones (even if it’s hard to believe in the latter) are very encouraging, as players who weren’t really expected to do a whole lot are filling starting roles nicely. And the more-hyped LaRoche and Milledge have shown enough that we can have hope for improvement from them still.
If you would have told me in April that this would be the starting lineup, I’d think they’d lose 110 games. This Pirates team plays better than that , and has the talent to do so. It’s not a terrible nucleus, and certainly not the worst team here in 17 seasons.
by Gorkys n' Beans on Aug 19, 2009 10:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
3 wins
and we’re looking at the ’27 Yankees.
by JRoth95 on Aug 19, 2009 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Posting that they’re not the worst Pirates team in 17 years makes them the 27 Yankees? Geez.
by Gorkys n' Beans on Aug 19, 2009 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just a joke
and reference to NH constantly mentioning them.
by JRoth95 on Aug 19, 2009 11:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
17 times bitten...
I know that this is “the first real rebuilding”* but it’s a bit of revisionist history that the Pirates have never tried this before. Bonifay’s “Five Year Plan” was entirely predicated on A. having some of the young Major League talent pan out while waiting for the B. prospects to arrive. The real failure of course was that the prospects were crap, year after year after year. But the critical other failure was in getting excited about spurts of apparent competence from guys whose track record indicated that they were warm bodies at best. Garrett Morris as Turner Ward. Ronny Cedeno as Warren Morris. Steve Pearce as Mark Johnson. Lastings Milledge as Jermaine Allensworth.
Or not. Many of these guys have better pedigrees than those guys. But almost none of them are better than 50-50 chances to be better-than-average players in the long term. As countless GJones arguments here have made clear, even a spectacular month in the bigs shouldn’t erase that understanding – modify it, a bit, at best.
The cockeyed optimist in me thinks that Cedeno, Young, and MIlledge – maybe even Pearce – could be contributing starters for a winning Pirates team. But the realist in me says that they won’t, and that whatever flashes of ability they show right now will be long forgotten come the 100th loss next year. or the disappointing 2011 team that fails to reach .500 because it doesn’t have a real ML MI.
- Although I’ve never understood why the first one doesn’t count – they didn’t unload every single player of value all at once, but it was pretty damn close – I’m pretty sure that by mid-’96, there was not a single player left from the playoff years, and most of them were gone by ’94.
by JRoth95 on Aug 19, 2009 10:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn’t group Jones with the rest of the somewhat young players; his is really the only track record that screams “No way, Jose”. The rest of these guys have at least had flashes with hitting before this year, whether it be in the minors or whatnot. I don’t know what any of their probability is of being a good option, but at least there’s something.
by Gorkys n' Beans on Aug 19, 2009 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
True
But with (nearly) all of these guys, it would still qualify as good fortune for them to turn into above-average MLers (I’m not including Andy in that, btw – AFAIC, he’s shown plenty of glove and just enough bat to qualify as an almost-average MLer in his first full season). Milledge is the closest thing to an exception to that, but, while he’s still young, he still has holes in his game, and he’s in the one area where we have a true organizational surplus. So he doesn’t have 2+ years to learn to do the things that he should already know (like taking good routes).
by JRoth95 on Aug 19, 2009 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If he can hit up to expectations
Then he could at least be a valueable commodity on the trade market. To me his real value lies in his bat, if for nothing more than that.
by Bucs Fever on Aug 20, 2009 1:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
....and which "he" would you be refering to?
"So you think 25 percent of the country is retarded?! Yea. Atleast 25 percent. Well lets so a sample. There are 4 of us an you're retarded. Thats 25 percent." Southpark; Mystery of the Urinal Deuce
by gorillakilla34 on Aug 20, 2009 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Milledge
I was drunk when I wrote it.
Of course I would love to see him play well defensively, but if he can hit to his potential then I would be happy. If at that point a guy like Hernandez is ready, and Milledge doesn’t improve defensively, he can then be traded.
by Bucs Fever on Aug 20, 2009 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lol.
Gotta love the commenting/posting drunk. One of my favorite pastimes.
I would definetly like to see Lastings pan out. I think that the hand injury may have something to do with his lack of batting ability so far and I believe he will be an above average defender.
"So you think 25 percent of the country is retarded?! Yea. Atleast 25 percent. Well lets so a sample. There are 4 of us an you're retarded. Thats 25 percent." Southpark; Mystery of the Urinal Deuce
by gorillakilla34 on Aug 20, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
same here
i have been bothered by his work in the field- has taken bad routes a few times, or maybe its just that he wasnt as fast as he thought (and we thought- wasnt he supposed to be fast?!) and the ball skipped past him making the play look silly. I dont know if he s put on weight recently thats responsible for this (def looks like he could lose a few lbs).
by BurgherKing on Aug 20, 2009 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought the same thing.
He had 24 steals in 33 attempts last season but I don’t see him being as fast as he was hyped to be. Here are his numbers. I’m just hoping the power he flashed last year comes back and then some. The steals would be a nice throw in.
Side note: his middle name is Darnell. Lol.
"So you think 25 percent of the country is retarded?! Yea. Atleast 25 percent. Well lets so a sample. There are 4 of us an you're retarded. Thats 25 percent." Southpark; Mystery of the Urinal Deuce
by gorillakilla34 on Aug 20, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Speaking of which
I was thinking to myself today that Lastings sounds like either a porn star or butlers name. It works for him thought I guess.
by Bucs Fever on Aug 20, 2009 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
His mother was very witty.
He was the last kid born so she named him Lastings. Judging from the photo of him seen here maybe he thinks he’s a pornstar.
"So you think 25 percent of the country is retarded?! Yea. Atleast 25 percent. Well lets so a sample. There are 4 of us an you're retarded. Thats 25 percent." Southpark; Mystery of the Urinal Deuce
by gorillakilla34 on Aug 20, 2009 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can't see Pearce being a contributing member of the next good Pirates team.
Next year, by mid-June, we should be looking at :
Cutch CF
Young 2B
Alvarez 3B
Doumit C
Jones/Clement 1B
Tabata RF
Milledge LF
Cedeno SS
With Pearce/Jones, Jaramillo, Laroche, Moss and Vazquez on the bench.
That team is going to be a heck of a lot of fun to watch.
by PGHcager on Aug 19, 2009 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Alvarez will bat cleanup Tabata will be at the top of order
really Cutch, Young, Tabata are table-setters for Pedro Alvarez to take home
my projected 2010 lineup
cf Cutch
2b Young
rf Tabata
3b Alvarez
c Doumit
1b Pearce/Clement
lf Milledge
ss C-Rod!
bench:
Vasquez, JJ, LaRoche, Pearce/Clement loser, Moss
Rotation:
Maholm/Duke (one will be traded within a year) Ohlendorf, Morton, Hart, McCutchen
Lincoln waiting in the wings if he can get his stuff together with Alderson in AAA
Bullpen:
Capps (if he does well he’ll be traded since set-up guys are in demand provided they do well)
Chavez, Meek, Ascensio, Hanrahan, Karstens, Dumatrait
by BadAndy on Aug 20, 2009 8:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
With LaRoche becoming a close to average ML player this year, I could see him either starting at 3B/2B or getting traded, more likely than serving a bench role.
by Gorkys n' Beans on Aug 20, 2009 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
2010?
I don’t think Pedro starts 2010 at 3B in Pittsburgh. In fact, I am certain of it if for no other reason than holding back his playing time to free agency. Although he probably will be deserving of a major league call up in September, I would not be surprised to see the Pirates hold him back until June of 2011 before starting his major league service time clock. My guess is he plays all year at Indy.
by Brakeman8 on Aug 20, 2009 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pedro will be in Pittsburgh in 2010, either in late May or early June, which will delay his free agency clock perfectly. We get him for the rest of 2010, and from 2011 through the end of 2016. Same for Tabata.
By June 1, those 8 players (in whatever order), will be the core of the Pirates.
by PGHcager on Aug 20, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Whether May/June is enough or not...
…depends on how other teams handle their rookies. The bar has been moving back pretty steadily for the last few years.
by Vlad on Aug 20, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This team has shown a willingness to develop talent slowly. Pedro likely spends almost if not all of the year at Indy.
by Brakeman8 on Aug 20, 2009 9:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This isn’t the first rebuilding plan they’ve started on. Bonifay’s five-year plan (giving it a time span like that was a huge mistake) was legit and for a while it looked promising. After the 1998 season, though, he abandoned it in favor of signing guys like Meares, Cordero and Bell. Remember how reluctant he was to stick with Ramirez? He tried to sign Ed Sprague for two more years while Aramis was tearing up AAA. He stuck with Sprague when he had his usual 0-for-the-second-half. He didn’t even call up Ramirez in Sept. until he had to when Sprague had a season-ending injury. That’s just an example, but after 1998 Cam ran the team pretty much like DL later. if current mgmt. sticks with this plan, it’ll be the first time that’s happened. The plan isn’t just getting rid of all the veterans.
The cockeyed optimist in me thinks that Cedeno, Young, and MIlledge – maybe even Pearce – could be contributing starters for a winning Pirates team.
Even I don’t think that. I could see Cedeno and Milledge, but not the other two. This is going to be a work in progress, regardless of NH’s comment about this being the team he wants. (It’s profoundly silly to take that comment the way it came across, since that would mean he doesn’t consider Alvarez, Tabata, Alderson, Lincoln, etc., to be part of the team’s future.) These guys are not the keys to the team’s future.
by WTM on Aug 19, 2009 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
speajing of which
after 1998 Cam ran the team pretty much like DL later
Isnt that when McClatchy showed up?
by geeves on Aug 20, 2009 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, but one theory some people have is that McClatchy got too caught up in the fluke 1997 season and thought they’d contend in 1998. They were doing OK, although not contending, until the last month of 1998, when the team fell to pieces. It happened mainly due to injuries, especially due to the pitching staff (which was probably due in turn to Lamont’s abusing the young pitchers). McClatchy openly blamed the bad finish on the team having too many young players, which wasn’t the problem at all.
After that, they were always frightened to use rookies, something Lamont never liked to do anyway. Bonifay instead started turning to guys like Bell and Meares. So the theory is that McClatchy pressured Bonifay not to use young players much. After DL took over, he talked constantly about the hazards of playing young players, so it seems likely part of his marching orders when he was hired was to avoid playing rookies so as to avoid a terrible stretch like Sept. 1998. The end result was a team that not only wasn’t rebuilding, but was determined not to do the things necessary to rebuild.
I think there’s probably something to this theory, and it accounts for the 180 degree change in direction since McClatchy left as CEO. It’s another of the many factors that contradict the whiners’ cherished notion that Nutting was secretly running the team all along.
by WTM on Aug 20, 2009 1:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting theory
I’d heard the idea that ‘97 shifted the focus of the plan – understandably so – but not that McClatchy misread the lessons of Sept ’98. It does explain Bonifay’s continuous signing of never-weres. DL’s style was to emphasize the has-beens, recognizing that the never-weres weren’t getting it done.
Strategy aside, they did get screwed over by the fact that none of the players they drafted (other than ARam) came through – I don’t think the ’90s drafts were as incompetent as the early ’00 ones, but they were impressively unfruitful nonetheless. I always say that Billy Beane got lucky with 3 healthy, durable starters; the Bucs got unlucky with an endless series of injury-prone and underperforming starters (the law of averages says that one of those guys should have succeeded; not a single one did, even to a low standard of “success”).
by JRoth95 on Aug 20, 2009 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Beane’s put together an impressive young staff now. At some point, you have to conclude that there’s some skill involved.
At the time, I never paid much attention to arguments over whether McClatchy or Bonifay was the problem. I just despised them both. After watching DL take some of Bonifay’s worse tendencies and amplify them, and watching McClatchy let him wreck the franchise and never make a move to replace him, I have to conclude that McClatchy was the main problem. Whether it was ’97 or ’98, or whatever the reason, he developed some idiotic ideas about running a MLB team and found the GM of his dreams in DL.
by WTM on Aug 20, 2009 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Beane
I’m not saying it’s luck in finding guys; I’m saying it’s luck in them staying healthy (there’s some control in how their arms are handled in the minors, but plenty of guys have needed TJS despite never having thrown 110 pitches in their careers). A couple years back, when everyone was bemoaning the constant injuries to our pitchers, DK did some research and determined that the Pirates haven’t been outliers in terms of young pitchers getting hurt. The flukiness of it is that it has impacted our most promising arms disproportionately.
Anyway, we’ll see if Beane’s current group stays healthy. A year ago, Blez at Athletics Nation wrote, “with the A’s history of having injured starting pitchers, the truth is that the team could probably use as many starting pitchers as possible.” From 2000 to 2004, the A’s had a core of good and healthy pitchers all starting a minimum of 26 games/year*, which has outshone the considerably more checkered careers of, frex, Harden and Blanton. It was extraordinarily good luck when you consider the myriad reasons guys end up on the DL.
- And Zito never missed a start, while the other 2 only had 1 year each in which they started fewer than 30
by JRoth95 on Aug 20, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Of course, if the A's starters of the early '90s hadn't been so healthy...
…they might have hung onto one or more of Aaron Harang, Ted Lilly, and Cory Lidle.
by Vlad on Aug 20, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Beane did, however, trade Hudson and Mulder just before they started having injury problems, and took a great deal of flak in the process.
by WTM on Aug 20, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and got back dan haren from the cards in the process, who he then flipped for a boatload of players.
by johnnycuff on Aug 20, 2009 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Young
WTM,
Just curious, why don’t you think Young might have a worthwhile starting future with the Bucs? I understand concerns about his defense, but from what I see of him, Young can hit and hit well for a second baseman.
Good day.
by Uncle Nate on Aug 20, 2009 9:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
His UZR has been inching upward as well…still not good and small sample size etc., but somewhat encouraging. He seems to be a better option at 2B for next year than anyone else we have right now. Bixler, anyone?
by maguro on Aug 20, 2009 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I cringe every time a ball is hit to him and I don’t think his bat is good enough to make up for the D.
by WTM on Aug 20, 2009 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Guys like....
Young and Jones certainly aren’t likely to be the building blocks around which the next successful Pirate team is built. Having said that, if both produce at the levels they have over their first 200 at bats with the team, they will definitely be in the lineup.
Both are below average defensively, no doubt, but Young is still learning and Jones, well, he isn’t the worst outfielder.
I was wondering for awhile why the team was not playing Jones at first and Pearce in right, as opposed to the other way around when Pearce was in the lineup. And the answer is obviously that with Pearce having the better pedigree and higher likelihood of long term success the Bucs are looking at a possible platoon of Pearce and Clement at first next year.
If Jones continues to play his way into the lineup then Clement will get the next shot at first while Jones stays in right.
by dtoddwin on Aug 20, 2009 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
young is improving
or at least, it seems that way to me. On a few plays, he’s looked (dare i say it!) fluid in his movements. But you can also see the hesitancy go away- he knows which base to go to (more often than not), is trying to get out of the way of the runner sliding into 2B, making his throws to 1B on the DP turn and not dragging the 1Baseman off the bag (still bounces the throws, but you can see they are almost always on line). It’s encouraging! I’d really like to see how it works out for him at 2B- and I’ll stick my neck out and say he has a legit shot to be there for a couple of years!
by BurgherKing on Aug 20, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He’s suppose to go to winter ball to work more on his 2B defensively from what i’ve heard.
by lfhlaw on Aug 20, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do you not believe in his bat
or is .811 OPS not enough? IOW, do you expect his hitting to regress to something more like .775, or do you simply think that his glove is so bad that even an .800+ OPS doesn’t compensate? FanGraphs says he’s having a $5M season, which seems plausible to me.
That said, I haven’t seen him play 2B, so I don’t know how good/bad he looks out there. I know he was embarrassing in RF earlier, but he seems to be past that.
by JRoth95 on Aug 20, 2009 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
As with Milledge....
I think Young’s defense is prematurely dismissed as terrible. Guys get reputations defensively and they are very difficult to change. If you are Jason Bartlett or Ben Zobrist and someone says you can’t hit, you point to your numbers this year to disprove that. Because good defensive metrics are still being developed reputations are much more difficult to change
Young and Milledge aren’t nearly as bad as some think. Young in particular is +1 in Dewan’s plus/minus (small sample size) and is obviously still learning the position. He is way more valuable than Freddy, defense included, if he hits at this level because he costs $450K and will for the next two years.
Jones is still OPSing 1.000 through 200 plate appreances, sitting right between Hanley and Manny Ramirez. At this point it is less small sample size. The power in terms of home runs has certainly dropped but as DK pointed out today he hasn’t “cooled off.” OBP in July .361, OBP in August .362.
If all three of Young, Cedeno and Jones produce as they have for the remaining 45 or so games you can ink them into next year’s starting lineup.
by dtoddwin on Aug 20, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
With nothing really behind those guys…quite yet…. They most likely will be in the starting line-up unless someone from AAA really surprises the staff next year. With the exception of maybe Jeff Clements(if he pans out).
by lfhlaw on Aug 20, 2009 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Clement....
is going to be in the lineup as well. Playing first either every day or platooning with Pearce.
by dtoddwin on Aug 20, 2009 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
At AAA level
Pearce and Clement are basically the same player…from different sides of the plate…on offense…this season. Defensively…nod apparently goes to Pearce at 1B.
by Thunder on Aug 20, 2009 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't trust +/- as much as UZR...
…and UZR has him as a -8.1/150 this year. The sample’s nowhere near large enough to draw any stat-based conclusions, though. On the eyeball test, I don’t think he looks particularly good out there, though I’ve only seen him in person a few times. He still doesn’t look fluid moving side-to-side, and he doesn’t react all that quickly, either.
Bartlett’s marginal offensive reputation is deserved – he’s carrying (or more accurately, being carried by) a .390 BABIP this year. Zobrist is outperforming expectations, but has always projected as at least a fair offensive player, so anyone talking about his “poor” reputation a year or two ago was speaking stuff and nonsense.
Dejan’s comments on Jones are… disingenuous. Jones hit .310/.361/.700 in July, and .281/.370/.500 thus far in August. If losing almost 200 points of OPS isn’t evidence that a guy is “cooling off”, then I’m not sure exactly what would qualify. He still has value at .870, of course – the question is whether that’s where it will stop, or whether it’ll keep dropping.
by Vlad on Aug 20, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't disagree.....
with any of your points, although I think you are nitpicking my example of batters.
Yes DK picked his stats (and so obviously I did too), and you picked yours by using .870 and saying he has cooled off and using UZR as to Dewan. He has cooled off in terms of power but is still getting on base. As you have always correctly pointed out with Adam LaLob if you are hitting .275/.360/.480 it doesn’t matter when you get your hits. So, Jones is .365/.622/.987.
One of the big questions was his strikeout rate, which seems stable. As for his OPS, the question is “whether that’s where it will stop, or whether it’ll keep dropping”-to quote you-or whether it will go back up.
We all have biases. You know mine, I know yours. You said you would be a believer at 200 PAs with 1.000 OPS or 300 PAs .900 OPS. You are on the record. Of course, I mostly joking, but how now, my friend, we are there?
by dtoddwin on Aug 20, 2009 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't pick the .870 because it fitted my point.
I picked it because it was a natural external barrier, from the change in months. I could’ve chosen any one of a dozen other start/stop points, and gotten the same general result, because Jones hasn’t hit as well lately (for whatever value of “lately” you’d like to use) as he did when he was red-hot.
“You said you would be a believer at 200 PAs with 1.000 OPS or 300 PAs .900 OPS. You are on the record. Of course, I mostly joking, but how now, my friend, we are there?”
1) If you go back and look, I’m pretty sure I said AB, not PA.
2) We aren’t there on either end. Jones doesn’t have 200 AB (or 200 PA, for that matter), and his OPS is below 1.000 (and has been for a week now).
by Vlad on Aug 20, 2009 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just as an example:
If I’d been moving the goalposts for maximum effect, I would’ve probably gone with “since July 25”, a 23-game stretch over which he’s hitting .261/.337/.432.
I didn’t, because I wasn’t trying to make Jones look bad. I was just pointing out that Dejan was being disingenuous when he said that he couldn’t understand the perception that Jones was cooling off, and then handwaved away a bunch of HR.
by Vlad on Aug 20, 2009 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, that was a very ridiculous comment by Dejan there.
by Gorkys n' Beans on Aug 20, 2009 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Love the conversation....
I’ll buy the next 40 ABs and see how it goes.
by dtoddwin on Aug 21, 2009 2:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK....
Sure I was wrong. You are on the record, now you wanna say his next 35 plate appearances are going to change your mind. I don’t get your logic. 13 home runs. 45 games left. Him hitting 20, 50%. So you killing yoursef, 50%.
I don’t know what i’m rooting for.
by dtoddwin on Aug 21, 2009 2:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not sure what you're saying here.
I do honestly think I said AB. I tried to look for the thread, but I can’t find it. If you have ther link, and it really is PA, then I’ll stick by PA – that might actually work out better, since four more games at his current pace would have me in the clear (at least for another hundred AB). And if he can get back over the bar, great! I’m always willing to be wrong, if it means something good for the team.
I’m not planning on killing myself at 20 HR. The merciful hand of God would take care of that for me – heart attack, most likely.
by Vlad on Aug 21, 2009 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
re: do you not believe in his bat
I don’t.
.811 OPS is nice.
but .398 BABIP? no way he keeps that up.
by dirtyfrank on Aug 20, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh Jeez
I didn’t look at that – I just checked that .811 wasn’t outlandishly out of range with his history.
Although, since 2005, he’s never had a BABIP below .330, ML or MiL. So he won’t keep .398 up, but it’s not a total outlier.
by JRoth95 on Aug 20, 2009 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
70 points...
…is a pretty big swing.
You also need to remember to clip his minor league BABIPs a bit to account for his mostly-favorable offensive environments.
by Vlad on Aug 20, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He’s had a very high line drive rate in the majors, which makes the BABIP seem a little less fluky.
by shayborg on Aug 20, 2009 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I feel the exact same way Charlie
Rooting for guys who you know are going to serve as trade bait that very season is just not as fun as rooting for guys who may be part of the future, even if for some, the chances are slim. I mean I know Cedeno’s not going to slug .450 over any length of time (or even .400) but it’s been fun watching and dreaming. I guess I just feel more invested in this team.
by OlStubbleBeard on Aug 20, 2009 9:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Minor league update
Gorkys hits his 2nd homerun(!) of the season, a 2-run shot.
Moskos through 4, 1UER, 3H, 1BB, 4K
Altoona leads 2-1
by OlStubbleBeard on Aug 20, 2009 1:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I want
in the fantasy league next year, haha.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Aug 20, 2009 1:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
jones
if jones just gets hot 10 days a month he should be at around 300
by karreemofwhite on Aug 20, 2009 5:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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