Andrew McCutchen or Garrett Jones for Rookie of the Year?

by Charlie on Aug 24, 2009 8:13 PM EDT Comment 17 comments

It's a good thing indeed that the Pirates have two players in Andrew McCutchen and Garrett Jones who could legitimately fit into the N.L. Rookie of the Year discussion. Unfortunately, I don't think they'll make it past the first round. As pretty much everyone here knows, I'm not overly high on Jones' long-term potential, but his performance so far has been indisputable. Unfortunately, he's only played in 45 games, which isn't, and shouldn't be, long enough to make an impression on most voters. It's extremely hard to sustain a .982 OPS over a long period, and Jones isn't a great bet to do it. Just ask the Brewers' Casey McGehee, who had a .963 OPS after 47 games this year but has slowly faded into the background since then. Like Jones, McGehee is an older minor league veteran getting a fresh start with a new team. Also like Jones, McGehee has a long history of posting minor league OPSes in the 700s. McGehee certainly shouldn't be a top candidate for Rookie of the Year honors, and barring a very strong second act that I don't really see coming, I don't think Jones will be either.

This isn't to dismiss Jones' season outright, however. It's probably reached the point where he's done enough to warrant adjusting our (well, at least my) expectations upward a bit. There are occasionally players who have unimpressive minor league performances and reach the majors late, but still manage to have decent careers--I think of Eric Byrnes here, or Bill Hall. But both Byrnes and Hall had short and rather strange peaks, and hoping for Jones to reach even those players' rather un-lofty heights is probably hoping for too much.

McCutchen is a different story, and if he played with a team that got more media attention, he might be a legitimate candidate. But his stats, at least the ones the voters are likely to see, are good but don't jump off the page. A lot of our excitement about him stems from his blinding speed on the bases (which is cool but ultimately not that important) and from his excellent defense (which really is important). Neither of those are likely to get a lot of play with voters.

I think the N.L. Rookie of the Year is pretty likely to be the Braves' Tommy Hanson, who comes with a top prospect pedigree and has a 9-2 record. I'm not as impressed with Hanson as some are; he throws hard and has good breaking stuff, but his fastball is pretty straight and he leaves a lot of balls up, which I think could catch up with him. Still, he seems to be the favorite, and if he falters, J.A. Happ of the Phillies and Randy Wells of the Cubs are probably next in the queue. It's possible Dexter Fowler of the Rockies could enter the conversation, too. It will be tough, in my view, for McCutchen or Jones to pass all these guys. McCutchen is probably the most promising of all of them (although you could also make a case for Fowler, who I think could become something like a better version of Corey Hart, or for Hanson). I'll take potential over an award any day, unless it's a World Series trophy.

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My 2 cents

I like J.A. Happ of the Phillies more. I think he’s been more consistent over the long haul in comparison to T. Hanson or R. Wells.

McCutchen in my opinion has been good, but hasn’t quite stood out except for speed and defense. Perhaps an earlier call up would maybe sway my mind, but most likely if you had to pick a break out player for next year it might be McCutch. The only other thing he’s had is that one 3 HR Game, but that’s really a blip on the radar so far….

Dextor Fowler I think has gotten lost amid the shuffle of Seth Smith and Carlos Gonzalez in the OF….so I think he’s been kind of panned by his own team.

Are there any other rookies flying under the radar right now?

by lfhlaw on Aug 24, 2009 8:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I dont’ see much of a Fowler/Hart comparison. They are very different players except for being tall outfielders. OBP and power are a lot different, as is defensive aptitude and whether they are a leadoff or 2/5/6/7 type of hitter.

by Gorkys n' Beans on Aug 24, 2009 8:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

They’re very different players right now, but Hart is a very good defensive outfielder and my understanding is that Fowler has the tools to become one. He has the frame to add some home run power as he ages and if he does that, he could be very much like Hart.

by Charlie on Aug 24, 2009 9:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I didn’t like Hart (and also when he was actually used to compare to McCutchen before the season) because of Hart’s terrible strike zone judgment. But he’s actually improved a bit there this year, so maybe that has rebounded a little bit.

by Gorkys n' Beans on Aug 24, 2009 9:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hanson and Happ...

have rate stats that are incredibly similar this year and their records are also about the same with Hanson at 9-2 and Happ at 10-2. So, if I were voting today I think I’d go with Happ since he’s pitched 135 innings vs. 86 for Hanson. But, what happens over the next six weeks will certainly go a long way to determining the winner as the Braves now sit 6.5 games behind the Phils and the two teams play each other six more times.

I do think Cutch is the most likely position player to win the award and I have to believe he will be the Pirates’ ROY since he will have played 119 games and Jones only 85 if they both play them all the rest of the way—even if Jones’ OPS is .920 and Cutch’s at .820. I love the fact that between the two of them the have 21 SBs and only 2 CSs. Shows some good base running sense that hasn’t always been one of the organization’s fortes apart from Bay and McLouth.

Also as a sleeper candidate no one has mentioned, don’t forget Jake Fox. I don’t think he has any chance to win, but will probably get some votes down the line.

by dtoddwin on Aug 24, 2009 8:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Wins Above Replacement values for the top contenders, via Fangraphs:

McCutchen – 2.7
Randy Wells – 2.5
Colby Rasmus – 2.4
Seth Smith (if he counts) – 2.2
J.A. Happ – 1.7
Garrett Jones – 1.6
Everth Cabrera – 1.6
Casey McGehee – 1.4
Tommy Hanson – 1.4
Chris Coghlan – 0.8
Dexter Fowler – 0.7

Cutch would deserve to win (now that’s different than BBWAA actually voting him!) if he continues close to his current pace. Wells and Rasmus have been playing all season.

by Gorkys n' Beans on Aug 24, 2009 8:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I know he has no chance of winning the award, but Kenshin Kawakami for Atlanta is a 34 yr old rookie this year who is putting up decent numbers.

His WAR is at 1.3 and his numbers are not noteworthy at all (6-9, 3.97 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 6.17 K/9, 1.76 K/BB), but I just wanted to point him out as a rookie who is contributing.

by Jett on Aug 25, 2009 12:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He’s worth mentioning, at least.

Another honorable mention is Jordan Zimmerman, who pitched very well before being shut down (1.9 WAR, although with bad luck W/L and ERA).

by Gorkys n' Beans on Aug 25, 2009 2:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Aside from the lack of games played...

Jones will have history going against him. He’d be the oldest ROY in at least 50 years. No one has won the ROY at that age since at least 1960…and probably further back than that. Ichiro was 27 when he won his…which was a special case…plus he was the AL MVP that year as well.

by Thunder on Aug 24, 2009 9:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Not sure here

But isnt McCutchen in the top 5 leadoff hitters in the MLB?

I think he is in the top 5 in a few categories, but the only one I’m sure of is RBIs.

Anyone know the other categories?

by H2O on Aug 24, 2009 9:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Mike Easler

Anyone remember Mike Easler. He came up in his late 20’s and had a major impact for several years. Perhaps Jones is the next Easler?

by SportOMania on Aug 25, 2009 1:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Unlike Jones, Easler was dominant in the minors.

He just couldn’t get a fair shot at a job.

I mean, in AAA at 25, he batted .352 with a .651 SLG. In the offensive context of the 1970s. And he didn’t get a full-time look for another four years. That’s just mind-boggling.

by Vlad on Aug 25, 2009 9:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I probably made McCutchen keeping his current pace seem slightly too easy. Right now, he is 5th in centerfield OPS (also 5th with the more precise wOBA metric). Unless he really is a top-5 type hitter this soon, there is bound to be some regression. I just don’t think it’ll be that much. He should settle around the low end of the top 10, from here.

McCutchen has easily exceeded my expectations to this point, with close to top level offense, and well as elite defense in center.

The BBWAA can write about Cutch not playing the first two months all they want, but we Pittsburgh fans know who is the best rookie player this season. We know who has the superior skill set. We know who’s basically at all star level already, unless the worst-case regression happens. And the proof is in both the numbers and the video footage. The Pundit class won’t fool anyone with Happ or some other jabroni.

by Gorkys n' Beans on Aug 25, 2009 2:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

jones

you cant really say he isnt in the running, i believe he leads all rookies in the NL in homeruns(i could be wrong im not up to date on those kinda stats). but a BA around .300 and 14 hr. are good for any rookie. had he been up here earlier we mite have a better idea of how he is going to do over a full season. i believe hanson is the right guy for the award. his stats are very impressive.

either way i believe jones has earned himself a starting job next season, barring a terrible strech in the last month of the season. he has the tools to be a good power bat in our line-up. plus what other guy do we have from the left-handed side do we have that can hit for power? we havent had one of those since giles. i really hope that he can repeat his performance next year. i think that he has earned a job for us next season.

by buccosfan on Aug 25, 2009 4:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

After seeing that pic I didn’t realize Garrett and Kazuhito Tadano had that much in common

Why no, I’m not still in middle school, why do you ask?

by TravisDW on Aug 25, 2009 8:19 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Jones' adjustments

Supposedly, the Pirates changed Jones’ approach at the plate, and that may have something to do with the change in results.

The Twins’ manager noted that Jones is now standing more upright, and that allows him drop the bat head on the ball better. Don Long has said he was quite stiff and mechanical in his approach before, and his new stance allows him to relax and use his athleticism to attack the ball.

He may not have an .900+ OPS forever, but he seems to be able to make the adjustments needed. His recent bunt base hit to break the shift shows that he is a competitor willing to use any means necessary to get the job done.

BTW, he did have an .800+ OPS in AAA the last 3 years, which increased every year.

That said, I don’t think he should be ROY, because he is still a defensive liability, whereas Cutch is an overall well rounded player.

I still think Tommy Hanson will win, but if Hanson slips in September and Cutch raises his average a bit, then there might be an opening for Cutch to take it.

I’d guess most people voting for this aren’t sabermetric geeks. But although Cutch’s AVG has remained around .285 the whole year, his OBP has climbed steadily to .355. His OBP in August is about .400. For a leadoff guy, that’s the most important thing.

by MarkInDallas on Aug 25, 2009 4:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

If Jones tops 20 HR

We can put the ROY trophy on Vlad’s grave.

Honestly, if he gets above 20 HR* – especially if he has a little burst and approaches 25 – then he’s going to get a lot of looks from writers – that’s a big number for any rookie, much less one with fewer than 90 games.